Preseason Polls

[AUwent 3,754]

It isn't that I don't want to be ranked that way year in and year out, nor that I believe the team is unworthy of such. What I'm getting at is that at the end of last season, some were saying this one becomes a big year for Gus, because (according to this thought progression) another 8-9 win season puts him on the hot seat.

Now Auburn is toast of the town and the trendy pick to rise quickly, even win it all...and no actual games have been played in between those two extreme propositions. This sets things up so that anything less than contending for the national championship deep into the season, despite an entirely new offensive backfield and one of the most difficult early season schedules in the country, will likely be seen as a let down.

I guess I'm just leery of putting the cart in front of the horse, so to speak.

For what its worth, I feel the exact same way.

Oh, for Pete's sake, CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION! If we want to be a good program, we can't rely on being ranked in the late teens and early 20s ever pre-season.

Aside from which, why are pre-season pundits overlooking A&M? They seem to be pretty much in our situation. What do the pundits see in us that they don't see in them? Not complaining about our ranking, but just curious.

[stealthyfan 124]

Cautiously optimistic is on the band wagon.

Would love nothing better than thumping TOSU on the last day of college football though.

[FHeal 4]

Cautiously optimistic is on the band wagon.

Would love nothing better than thumping TOSU on the last day of college football though.

Only if they make the game. Far better if they're not even in the discussion.

(...been this way since the Woody Hayes days!!!)

[keesler 5,924]

What was our preseason ranking this time last year?

[Rednilla 5,391]

Wait, someone please point out where I said ANYTHING about wanting to be ranked in the low teens or 20s. Pretty sure the only thing even close to that was being glad that at least one reputable prognosticator didn't put us in the top 2.

My point is that I would rather not start a season in which we are replacing the entire offensive backfield, taking on a new DC, and opening the year against a top 25 opponent as a favorite to win it all. We had a bit of a problem in a similar situation in 2003, for those who might not remember.

However, that is NOT to say we shouldn't be ranked highly, only that THIS season I would prefer being about where we are projected by most (bottom half of the top 10) to start with. I just don't want to see too much hype about a national championship in the preseason, especially not after the end of last season. The players need to be hungry to exceed expectations, not struggling to live up to them.

[AUbritt 611]

Wait, someone please point out where I said ANYTHING about wanting to be ranked in the low teens or 20s. Pretty sure the only thing even close to that was being glad that at least one reputable prognosticator didn't put us in the top 2.

You said you preferred mid-teens to top 2.

I prefer sitting somewhere in the bottom of the top ten at this point. And I like mid-teens better than top 2, as well...

I don't think that changes your main point.

[Tiger 8,827]

While high rankings can cause some over confidence, I don't think it's a reason for a team to under-achieve. Although success is directly correlated with expectation, if this team loses 4-5 games these are the potential reasons in my opinion (note: some guy writing what he thinks is going to happen in 7 months is not on the list -- there are 1000s of people who do that on this site anyways)

-- JJ has some typical first-year starter issues at QB

-- The OL doesn't gel quickly enough due to players graduating/NFL

-- Roc Thomas "learns on the job" that a spin move-only repertoire means fumbles (every turnover is huge when working with a defense who will most likely give up pts)

-- We don't have a true deep threat step up to stretch defenses (looking at you, Tony Stevens)

-- the D takes longer than anticipated to adapt to CWM's scheme (good thing here is that it can't be any worse than last season)

-- Lawson is actually human and doesn't play up to the freak standard that people are saying he will meet

-- the incoming Freshman on D who are expected to contribute play like, well, freshman (we aren't in a good spot here if we're having to hope for this)

-- a 3rd LB doesn't step up and play at an SEC-caliber

-- Special teams doesn't improve from last year. Including kickoff return blocking. But especially punting. Special teams was a key reason the season unraveled the way it did last season (Texas A&M game --> blocked FG before halftime sealed our fate)

-- The number of penalties aren't addressed

There are probably more but I can't think of any right now. If we escape the first 4 weeks undefeated I think we are going to see a 10+ win season. However, I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility for AU to start 2-2 or even 1-3 (if the wheels start falling off) with Louisville, LSU, and Miss St in the first month of the season. The UL game is a scary one to start with. We replace a ton of experience with guys who have very limited snaps. That is usually not a recipe for success. We don't know how some guys will truly react when the lights come on.

Not intended to be a super-negative post but I do think these are some crucial areas of concern for the team. And certainly more realistic problems than preseason predictions having AU ranked highly.

[CJBas 4]

Don't shoot me but I still think there are plenty of questions about Auburn's 2015 team. First is Jeremy Johnson. He obviously does have the athletic ability but we really don't know yet if he has the mental quickness to run this offense with the accuracy that Nick Marshall did. The only time we've seen him start was against Ark last year, and that left a lot to be desired.

Also, this is still only Gus Malzahn's 3rd year as a head coach. Does he have the managerial abiliy to become a great HC? We all hope so but don't really know for certain yet.

Muschamp has said something to the effect that it will take a few more yers of good recruiting to build a truly strong defense. I do think it reasonable to expect an improved D this yer over the last couple of years but how much improvment we really won't know until we see it on the field.

I remain cautiously optimistic. The schedule does look to our advantage. IF (if) things all fall in to place to Auburn's benefi then it could be one of those perfect storm years for us. But I've learned to try not to get my hopes up too much. . . . But then I'm also trying to to get like a kid looking forward to Christmas when it's only September and that's difficult also.

[Tiger 8,827]

Don't shoot me but I still think there are plenty of questions about Auburn's 2015 team. First is Jeremy Johnson. He obviously does have the athletic ability but we really don't know yet if he has the mental quickness to run this offense with the accuracy that Nick Marshall did. The only time we've seen him start was against Ark last year, and that left a lot to be desired.

Also, this is still only Gus Malzahn's 3rd year as a head coach. Does he have the managerial abiliy to become a great HC? We all hope so but don't really know for certain yet.

Muschamp has said something to the effect that it will take a few more yers of good recruiting to build a truly strong defense. I do think it reasonable to expect an improved D this yer over the last couple of years but how much improvment we really won't know until we see it on the field.

I remain cautiously optimistic. The schedule does look to our advantage. IF (if) things all fall in to place to Auburn's benefi then it could be one of those perfect storm years for us. But I've learned to try not to get my hopes up too much. . . . But then I'm also trying to to get like a kid looking forward to Christmas when it's only September and that's difficult also.

While I agree with your take on Gus only being a 3rd year HC and JJ being a question mark, I don't think his 1st half against Arky left much to be desired. He put up full game type stats in one half. My concern with JJ is how he handles: pressure, adversity within a game, & getting hit in the mouth. We also have no idea how he will react when we are down 4 with 1:30 left and we have to go 80 yards.

[Rednilla 5,391]

All I'm concerned with is having some arbitrary bullseye drawn on our back from day 1. The only reason early season polls matter with regard to how a team might do is the expectation, and subsequently the pressure, there might exist to screw with the players' heads, either by making them overly confident or making them feel like they are less than they are if something goes wrong early in the season. This is where leadership is so vital, and the hope is that Gus possesses it.

That's the only characteristic he has yet to show as a college head coach, IMO, that is necessary to distinguish him as one of the truly elite...but he also has not had the time logged as head coach to demonstrate such leadership, so it's not a criticism, only an observation.

As for the team, as long as the veterans dig in and make sure to help the coaches keep everyone grounded, which I fully expect to happen, then I rather doubt any preseason banter will distract them. It might make Louisville all the hungrier, but honestly, if Auburn has come together as a team by then, and they play even close to what they are capable of, Louisville won't be within a touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Make no mistake about it: this is a legitimate top 10 team, and I believe we should be ranked as such. I even think there is a high probability that JJ takes the reins seamlessly, Lawson and company wreak havoc with offensive lines, and Auburn emerges as a front runner for it all.

I simply think we should wait until after the Louisville and LSU games before making any definitive declarations about how ready we are for the spotlight. That's all.

[Rednilla 5,391]

Oh, and thanks Britt..I'm on my phone, so it isn't as easy to navigate. The prognosticator I was alluding to was Phil Steele who had us at 14, hence the reference to preferring mid-teens over top 2. And in any case, you're right that it doesn't change my point anyway.

[AUbritt 611]

LOL. Yeah I was just being a smart ass. I knew what you were saying and agree with the sentiment. I hope we get used to frnt running though.

[Rednilla 5,391]

I think we will, and I think we'll likely be in that conversation year in and year out going forward, but it will take another year of contending at the top before I think we deserve to be there.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,674]

"and that left a lot to be desired."

Didn't he almost have 300 yards?

[RunInRed 16,430]

The AP has released bowl projections for the 2015-16 postseason. They have Auburn vs. Ohio State in the CFP National Championship game.

(H/T @ESPNCFB)

[3rdgeneration 6,469]

I know the chance of us playing OSU in the CFPNC is slim, but if it happens, it will be wild at our house!!!! My daughter married her OSU grad husband this March. He should get his Auburn PhD this fall. His whole family is OSU, ours is AU, but they make it work. :-) Would be a lot of fun to beat them, but we'd have to be really nice about it.

[tgr4lfe 220]

All I'm concerned with is having some arbitrary bullseye drawn on our back from day 1. The only reason early season polls matter with regard to how a team might do is the expectation, and subsequently the pressure, there might exist to screw with the players' heads, either by making them overly confident or making them feel like they are less than they are if something goes wrong early in the season. This is where leadership is so vital, and the hope is that Gus possesses it.

That's the only characteristic he has yet to show as a college head coach, IMO, that is necessary to distinguish him as one of the truly elite...but he also has not had the time logged as head coach to demonstrate such leadership, so it's not a criticism, only an observation.

As for the team, as long as the veterans dig in and make sure to help the coaches keep everyone grounded, which I fully expect to happen, then I rather doubt any preseason banter will distract them. It might make Louisville all the hungrier, but honestly, if Auburn has come together as a team by then, and they play even close to what they are capable of, Louisville won't be within a touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Make no mistake about it: this is a legitimate top 10 team, and I believe we should be ranked as such. I even think there is a high probability that JJ takes the reins seamlessly, Lawson and company wreak havoc with offensive lines, and Auburn emerges as a front runner for it all.

I simply think we should wait until after the Louisville and LSU games before making any definitive declarations about how ready we are for the spotlight. That's all.

The bullseye is already there, L'ville is getting the chance to play a top SEC team, who is two years removed from NC runner up and 5 from an NC, in the opening game of the year on national TV, you can bet AU is marked. AU is marked week in, week out in the SEC. The spotlight is on from the opening kickoff until the end of the season, imo. IF not ready for it then, not ready to be national contender. CGM and other coaches I'm sure have and are prepping the guys for such. After those games we'll know whether they were ready or not.

Biggest question mark is always team chemistry, hopefully, that is there, as many of the guys on the team were on the 2013 team and have that big game experience and hopefully will guide the younger new guys through it. The chemistry on O and D is vital, and I think there is on O as the OL have played together for at least 1-2 seasons and all have experience. RB will be interesting as they have limited game experience, but TONS of talent. WR shouldn't be an issue with loads of experience and talent out wide. On D, the hope is that CWM has instilled some semblance of confidence to defensive guys who have gotten tossed around the past couple of years and been brunt of the cause of the losses in most cases. If CWM and his D staff jump start the defensive guys, I think the talent is there for them to be MUCH improved over last year and be impactful in winning games. A 20% improvement in points allowed per game, puts AU giving up right at 20 ppg for this year would be phenomenal improvement over last year, but more key is 3rd and 4th quarter play, see the 2010 championship team. They averaged giving up a lot per game, but only averaged giving up 3 ppg in the 4th quarter, that's where ball games are won. We know CWM is proven as a DC and we hope he works his magic with this crew.

I agree about CGM as far as a HC and time will tell, but it seems he is pretty good game manager and strategist. I'm sure he is learning a lot as a HC as he goes along and the past two years will help him this year. I think this team has the potential to go all the way, the players and tools are there, will the chemistry be there to propel them during difficult situations to overcome and conquer? We'll see...

[AUwent 3,754]

Does this have anything to do with the AP poll?

[McLoofus 35,182]

I simply think we should wait until after the Louisville and LSU games before making any definitive declarations about how ready we are for the spotlight. That's all.

As we should every season (replacing "Louisville and LSU" with whatever a given season's equivalents are, of course, in terms of the gravity of the games and at which point of the season they occur).

I definitely understand those who are made somewhat nervous by high expectations- and Red, you make a great (and rare, refreshing) case by separating *this* team from previous Auburn teams that fell short of high preseason expectations- but who all should be ranked above us? On opening weekend of the 2015 season, I have no problem saying Ohio State is better than Auburn. And Georgia laid an absolute, old-school ass whoopin' on us last year- say what you will about our nebulous defensive issues, but they also shut down our offense- so no matter what questions the dawgs have this year, I'm scared of them. Beyond those two, I see a bunch of coin flips between us and the other contenders.

One of these days, Auburn is going to start a season in the limelight and finish there. The sooner the better, says I.

[AUwent 3,754]

^As bad as they beat us, I would say that had more to do with us being dispirited and hung over from the A&M loss. Inexcusable, to be sure, but you can't overlook psychology in football.

[Charleston Tiger 134]

I think it's been said, but I have no problem being ranked high. It's something that you have to be used to and just see as a number if we want to be considered an elite program. We can't play the "we don't get respect" card and complain that Bama "always gets the benefit of the doubt" but not like that we're getting picked to go far at the beginning of the season. I like it. We are elite. Other organizations/schools/"experts" see us that way. It's about time we (fans, players, etc.) did too.

[McLoofus 35,182]

I think it's been said, but I have no problem being ranked high. It's something that you have to be used to and just see as a number if we want to be considered an elite program. We can't play the "we don't get respect" card and complain that Bama "always gets the benefit of the doubt" but not like that we're getting picked to go far at the beginning of the season. I like it. We are elite. Other organizations/schools/"experts" see us that way. It's about time we (fans, players, etc.) did too.

*applause*

(Red's right, though... we need to string together a few consecutive great seasons. Hasn't happened since the mid aughts.)

[hutchids 227]

We have our work cut out for us either way. Sporting news seems to think highly of the whole division. They rank the SEC west teams as follows in their top 25:

Auburn 3

Alabama 5

LSU 14 (i doubt they will be this good. They need one more year after all the early departures they had.)

Arky 15

Ole Miss 16

Miss State 25

A&M not ranked but still in a bowl as the predicted 7th place team

[Rednilla 5,391]

All I'm concerned with is having some arbitrary bullseye drawn on our back from day 1. The only reason early season polls matter with regard to how a team might do is the expectation, and subsequently the pressure, there might exist to screw with the players' heads, either by making them overly confident or making them feel like they are less than they are if something goes wrong early in the season. This is where leadership is so vital, and the hope is that Gus possesses it.

That's the only characteristic he has yet to show as a college head coach, IMO, that is necessary to distinguish him as one of the truly elite...but he also has not had the time logged as head coach to demonstrate such leadership, so it's not a criticism, only an observation.

As for the team, as long as the veterans dig in and make sure to help the coaches keep everyone grounded, which I fully expect to happen, then I rather doubt any preseason banter will distract them. It might make Louisville all the hungrier, but honestly, if Auburn has come together as a team by then, and they play even close to what they are capable of, Louisville won't be within a touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Make no mistake about it: this is a legitimate top 10 team, and I believe we should be ranked as such. I even think there is a high probability that JJ takes the reins seamlessly, Lawson and company wreak havoc with offensive lines, and Auburn emerges as a front runner for it all.

I simply think we should wait until after the Louisville and LSU games before making any definitive declarations about how ready we are for the spotlight. That's all.

The bullseye is already there, L'ville is getting the chance to play a top SEC team, who is two years removed from NC runner up and 5 from an NC, in the opening game of the year on national TV, you can bet AU is marked. AU is marked week in, week out in the SEC. The spotlight is on from the opening kickoff until the end of the season, imo. IF not ready for it then, not ready to be national contender. CGM and other coaches I'm sure have and are prepping the guys for such. After those games we'll know whether they were ready or not.

Biggest question mark is always team chemistry, hopefully, that is there, as many of the guys on the team were on the 2013 team and have that big game experience and hopefully will guide the younger new guys through it. The chemistry on O and D is vital, and I think there is on O as the OL have played together for at least 1-2 seasons and all have experience. RB will be interesting as they have limited game experience, but TONS of talent. WR shouldn't be an issue with loads of experience and talent out wide. On D, the hope is that CWM has instilled some semblance of confidence to defensive guys who have gotten tossed around the past couple of years and been brunt of the cause of the losses in most cases. If CWM and his D staff jump start the defensive guys, I think the talent is there for them to be MUCH improved over last year and be impactful in winning games. A 20% improvement in points allowed per game, puts AU giving up right at 20 ppg for this year would be phenomenal improvement over last year, but more key is 3rd and 4th quarter play, see the 2010 championship team. They averaged giving up a lot per game, but only averaged giving up 3 ppg in the 4th quarter, that's where ball games are won. We know CWM is proven as a DC and we hope he works his magic with this crew.

I agree about CGM as far as a HC and time will tell, but it seems he is pretty good game manager and strategist. I'm sure he is learning a lot as a HC as he goes along and the past two years will help him this year. I think this team has the potential to go all the way, the players and tools are there, will the chemistry be there to propel them during difficult situations to overcome and conquer? We'll see...

There's a bullseye, to be sure, but it's not arbitrary. You listed the reasons that the existing bullseye isn't arbitrary; I just don't want to have any more of one added to it by people talking national championship so much after finishing 8-5 last year. No more, no less.

Does this have anything to do with the AP poll?

Does the title of the thread say "AP poll"?

[AUbritt 611]

Looking at Stat's recent post on championship ingredients, it looks like we have some, but not all of them. We have plenty of talent, especially on O. We can expect the D to be better than last year. Special teams is a wild card. What we lack is experience. That's why I really like Gus's emphasis on getting better each week. If we do that, we'll live up to the high expectations. If not, well ....