Color Nevada Blue ...

[TexasTiger 12,940]

28 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

So Obama was leading or tied (in a few) in every poll from late April til Election Day.  And he had this supposed early vote lead and won the state by seven points.  But Hillary who supposedly has an even bigger early vote lead than Obama had.  But the polls there show Trump leading or tied in 4 of the last 5 polls.  You don't see reason for serious skepticism that Nevada is lost for Trump?

He outperformed his polling avg by 4%-- that's mostly ground game. I'm not trying to dissuade you from your skepticism , I just don't share it.

[TitanTiger 20,495]

1 minute ago, TexasTiger said:

He outperformed his polling avg by 4%-- that's mostly ground game.

Ok.  But the bottom line is, the state was never in doubt.  His early voting lead was expected given the polling data.  Clinton's....who knows?  

Look, I'm hardly a Trump homer here.  I just don't buy that some early vote totals that contracdict with polling data mean Nevada is over for him.

[TexasTiger 12,940]

4 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Ok.  But the bottom line is, the state was never in doubt.  His early voting lead was expected given the polling data.  Clinton's....who knows?  

Look, I'm hardly a Trump homer here.  I just don't buy that some early vote totals that contracdict with polling data mean Nevada is over for him.

Ok. Romney had at least some semblance of a ground game. I don't think Trump does .

[TexasTiger 12,940]

@TitanTiger, consider this:

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/nv/nevada_senate_angle_vs_reid-1517.html

[TitanTiger 20,495]

1 minute ago, TexasTiger said:

@TitanTiger, consider this:

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/nv/nevada_senate_angle_vs_reid-1517.html

Ok.  But there wasn't a poll for over a week before the election.  She peaked mid October and the most recent two polls had her +1 and +3 a week out.  Not sure that's analogous.

[TexasTiger 12,940]

4 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Ok.  But there wasn't a poll for over a week before the election.  She peaked mid October and the most recent two polls had her +1 and +3 a week out.  Not sure that's analogous.

6 days out she was up one. No poll had him ahead and he wins by almost 6 when most of the voting was occurring during the time when polls showed him losing. Most voting in NV is early. But okay. Bet you a beer? ?

[TitanTiger 20,495]

1 minute ago, TexasTiger said:

6 days out she was up one. No poll had him ahead and he wins by almost 6 when most of the voting was occurring during the time when polls showed him losing. Most voting in NV is early. But okay. Bet you a beer? ?

I don't feel confident either way.  I'm just skeptical that it's "game over."

[TexasTiger 12,940]

Just now, TitanTiger said:

I don't feel confident either way.  I'm just skeptical that it's "game over."

Healthy Skepticism is not a bad thing.

[channonc 466]

1 hour ago, TexasTiger said:

@TitanTiger, consider this:

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/nv/nevada_senate_angle_vs_reid-1517.html

This is the reason I am skeptical of anyone's analysis other than Ralston's on Nevada.  He's called them all correctly, including the Reid race.

[RunInRed 16,422]

Let's revisit this thread after Nevada is called -- of course, by that time, it will likely all be over anyways and this will be an afterthought.

[channonc 466]

3 hours ago, RunInRed said:

Let's revisit this thread after Nevada is called -- of course, by that time, it will likely all be over anyways and this will be an afterthought.

Sure hope you are right.

[RunInRed 16,422]

And so the Trumpco whining begins ...

Quote

Trump campaign files Nevada lawsuit claiming people were improperly allowed to vote

 

[RunInRed 16,422]

HA!

Clark County statement on Trump lawsuit. pic.twitter.com/OUdZ6VjjN5

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 8, 2016

Judge reads lawsuit and says, in disbelief, "What are you asking for?"

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 8, 2016

[TitanTiger 20,495]

7 minutes ago, RunInRed said:

And so the Trumpco whining begins ...

 

"The suit, filed in state court, claims people who were not in line when polls closed at some Las Vegas locations were able to vote on Friday. Nevada law allows people already waiting when the polls close to cast ballots.

The suit against Clark County is not aimed at votes cast on Tuesday. This type of lawsuit is not unusual in presidential elections."

Seems like it comes down to a fairly straightforward issue.  Either the law was followed or it wasn't.

[channonc 466]

Looks like a judge already threw the suit out.

 

[TitanTiger 20,495]

Trump would sue a parking meter for running out on him.

[icanthearyou 4,463]

2 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Trump would sue a parking meter for running out on him.

Careful.  He would sue you for saying that.

[TexasTiger 12,940]

58 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Trump would sue a parking meter for running out on him.

One of the many ironies for a party that bemoans frivolous lawsuits.

[TexasTiger 12,940]

More background:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/nv-judge-shoots-down-trump-camp-early-voting-lawsuit-why-are-you-here

[RunInRed 16,422]

That was the Trump campaign in a nutshell in that NV court hearing:
Unprepared.
Loony logic.
Lack of knowledge.

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 8, 2016

[RunInRed 16,422]

Guess it doesn't matter anymore but props to Ralston, he called it.

[TitanTiger 20,495]

On 11/5/2016 at 3:32 PM, AUUSN said:

The Democrats won Clark County by more than 11,000 votes Friday (final mail count not posted yet), a record margin on a record-setting turnout day of 57,000 voters. The Dems now have a firewall -- approaching 73,000 ballots -- greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points. The 71,000 of 2012 was slightly higher in percentage terms, but raw votes matter. The lead is 14 percentage points -- right at registration. You know what else matters? Registration advantages (142,000 in Clark). Reminder: When the Clark votes were counted from early/mail voting in 2012, Obama had a 69,000 vote lead in Clark County. Game over.

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

Here's what I was getting at...her early vote totals surpassed Obama's, but the polling numbers were not wrong either.  Obama got fewer than the 73,000 ballots she did in early voting and won the state by 7 percentage points, a margin of 68,000 votes.  He basically split the election day voting 50-50.  She ended up winning Nevada by a little over 2 points, a margin of only 26,000 votes, meaning she got trounced in election day voting.