College Football 2020 (merged threads again)

[AUsince72 11,084]

2 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

here i am getting the crud. i hope it is sinus and allergies but who knows. i will not be leaving the house until i am sure.

Praying for you, my brother!

I pray you just have seasonal sniffles!

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

From earlier today. Fingers crossed this may help.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/toxicologist-reacts-after-trump-announces-fda-making-anti-malaria-drug-available-to-test-covid-19-treatment

[passthebiscuits 6,846]

21 minutes ago, Proud Tiger said:

What do you think about WHO? I read where the head honcho doesn't have a real medical background...…..as contrasted to the people on the Pence Team.

An article FWIW:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-china-who-chief-relationship-trouble

Yeah WHO is doing the best they can. They’re not the end-all-beat-all for this, but they do a decent job at global problems. Think of them like NATO...they try, bless their hearts.

We are wise to trust our own scientists/epidemiologists. 

[AidiAU 1,270]

7 minutes ago, passthebiscuits said:

Yeah WHO is doing the best they can. They’re not the end-all-beat-all for this, but they do a decent job at global problems. Think of them like NATO...they try, bless their hearts.

We are wise to trust our own scientists/epidemiologists. 

I miss when PTB would give us updates and opinions about the athletes. Can’t wait to get back to that!!! 
 

but appreciate these insights too @passthebiscuits 😀

[KnightTiger 205]

6 hours ago, WDE_OxPx_2010 said:

Peak will be this week and next, best case.

April-May peak would be a disaster

TBH if peak is during the next two weeks then some of april would be included because this upcoming week is the final week of march after that you only have two days left in this month! didn't want this to turn into a coronavirus/politics thread but since its already there the UK is expecting their peak somewhere around Easter and if not Easter then possibly May/June, and Australia possibly around August.

 

if our peak comes in the next week or two you have to figure so would Italy

[aubiefifty 16,803]

2 hours ago, AUsince72 said:

Praying for you, my brother!

I pray you just have seasonal sniffles!

i am hoping it is sinus as everything stinks when i breathe through my nose plus no fever. but as 64 and not in great shape i confess it is a worry. if i just disappear some of drink a toast to me.....lol

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

 

Praying for you. You're gonna be OK young man. That smell is your posts in the Political Forums😀😀

[aubiefifty 16,803]

3 minutes ago, Proud Tiger said:

 

Praying for you. You're gonna be OK young man. That smell is your posts in the Political Forums😀😀

now that was funny proud!

[ChltteTiger 649]

On 3/17/2020 at 4:19 PM, McLoofus said:

It will be affected. Not sure how. At a minimum, dudes are going to be rolling into July and August with a LOT less fitness and practice under their belts. 

Like everybody else I don't know what things will be like in late August but I do predict a lot of the first games of the season will resemble last years Florida-Miami game i.e. a lot of sloppy play!

[alexava 6,973]

6 hours ago, ChltteTiger said:

Like everybody else I don't know what things will be like in late August but I do predict a lot of the first games of the season will resemble last years Florida-Miami game i.e. a lot of sloppy play!

The thing that could really change the situation is testing. If these biomedical companies get a better faster test ( I’ve read that they have) AND they can be expedited, plentiful ( big if), then teams can get players and staff tested and quarantine the positive then start spring practices with the rest. I know football is way down on the list of priorities but if the testing can be done without jamming up the labs, go with it. Same with most businesses, grocers, retailers.

[auburn4ever 1,266]

Though I'm not saying it won't happen, it's just a crazy thought. No college football anywhere for the 2020 season. WOW!

[Swamp Eagle 5,142]

On 3/17/2020 at 12:57 PM, KnightTiger said:

im afraid we wont be having college football this year I hope im wrong when the real hot days of summer start to set in, but Trumps July/August statement doesn't give me hope! its time like this when you realize there are more important things than football

 

Warrr eagle ya'll stay healthy

I would absolutely hate it, but, you are correct; a priority lesson in this country is long overdue, regardless of how it came to be.

[alexava 6,973]

On 3/20/2020 at 5:28 PM, passthebiscuits said:

I’m by no means an expert. The R-naught of COVID-19 is about 2.2.  That means for every 1 person with COVID-19, he/she will likely infect over 2 others. That’s similar to smallpox. Seasonal flu has an R-Naught of 1.

So virulence is more than flu, less than SARS at this point. 
 

Trouble is sheer math...many people get it at the same time, certain percentage sick at same time, certain percentage need hospitals and ICUs at the same time, increased percentage die. Hence the importance of social distancing. 

@WarDamnDoc @passthebiscuits this is worse than what I expected and had heard recently. Hence my pH question. Everyone needs to watch the first minute of this. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

1 hour ago, alexava said:

@WarDamnDoc @passthebiscuits this is worse than what I expected and had heard recently. Hence my pH question. Everyone needs to watch the first minute of this. 

I hadn't heard those exact numbers, but yes, this is what a lot of people have been trying to tell everyone else for quite some time now. 

Hopefully this experience leads a lot of Americans to redirect their trust to more appropriate places. 

 

[passthebiscuits 6,846]

2 hours ago, alexava said:

@WarDamnDoc @passthebiscuits this is worse than what I expected and had heard recently. Hence my pH question. Everyone needs to watch the first minute of this. 

Yes except his initial math is wrong. Flu has R-0 of 1.4, so 1.4 to the 10th power=29.

so 1 case of flu infects 29.

still, 1 case of Covid infects 59K.

 

[lca408 366]

49 minutes ago, passthebiscuits said:

Yes except his initial math is wrong. Flu has R-0 of 1.4, so 1.4 to the 10th power=29.

so 1 case of flu infects 29.

still, 1 case of Covid infects 59K.

 

My question is this - if this virus has been out and about for several months now, some saying since December, how much good would a quarantine really do at this point? With that level of infectivity, how much more can really be gained among a population where I would imagine perhaps a majority in a major/medium size city would have already been exposed?

[alexava 6,973]

5 minutes ago, lca408 said:

My question is this - if this virus has been out and about for several months now, some saying since December, how much good would a quarantine really do at this point? With that level of infectivity, how much more can really be gained among a population where I would imagine perhaps a majority in a major/medium size city would have already been exposed?

We don’t know how far we are in to it. I imagine these R0 numbers are figured assuming that the population is carrying on as normal. When he says tenth level or tenth power that doesn’t have a time table attached to it that I’m aware of. 

[lca408 366]

38 minutes ago, alexava said:

We don’t know how far we are in to it. I imagine these R0 numbers are figured assuming that the population is carrying on as normal. When he says tenth level or tenth power that doesn’t have a time table attached to it that I’m aware of. 

Sure, but that’s the thing. It’s been here at least since mid to late January, possibly earlier. Social distancing and quarantine has only been in place for about a week and a half. That’s almost 2 months that it’s been able to spread unimpeded across the country. The only reason states like Alabama lagged behind in confirmed cases was because our testing apparatus took so long to get in place. The actual number of current cases has to be at least 2-3 times what it currently is. As testing becomes more available, the number grows really high. But it seems to me that’s more of a reflection of people finally being tested as opposed to actual spread, which at this point, it’s basically everywhere. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

11 minutes ago, lca408 said:

Sure, but that’s the thing. It’s been here at least since mid to late January, possibly earlier. Social distancing and quarantine has only been in place for about a week and a half. That’s almost 2 months that it’s been able to spread unimpeded across the country. The only reason states like Alabama lagged behind in confirmed cases was because our testing apparatus took so long to get in place. The actual number of current cases has to be at least 2-3 times what it currently is. As testing becomes more available, the number grows really high. But it seems to me that’s more of a reflection of people finally being tested as opposed to actual spread, which at this point, it’s basically everywhere. 

I think both things are true. You're absolutely right about the testing, but this is a really big, spread out country. Except in a few urban centers, we are sprawled out over large areas, we don't use public transit, we drive everywhere in our own vehicles, we live in houses with yards vs apartments, etc. So no, the vast majority of Americans have not been exposed and the quarantine is very much still useful. 

[lca408 366]

1 hour ago, McLoofus said:

I think both things are true. You're absolutely right about the testing, but this is a really big, spread out country. Except in a few urban centers, we are sprawled out over large areas, we don't use public transit, we drive everywhere in our own vehicles, we live in houses with yards vs apartments, etc. So no, the vast majority of Americans have not been exposed and the quarantine is very much still useful. 

That’s fair. I get the point. But I’d also say, at least for a major/mid size city, majority of citizens HAVE been exposed. Here in Bham you have a lot of movement from the suburbs to the downtown area for work and also play where a lot of the cool new hip places to eat and drink at are. I live in Inverness and if we decide to have a day or night out, we almost always head into Jeff County and go to a brewery or a good restaurant over the mountain. Lots of people do that all over the larger Bham area. It seems nearly impossible that most people who do this, especially the younger 25-45 crowd, haven’t already been exposed though maybe not infected. Our church is on 3rd ave North and we also make that drive every Sunday, well until the Bishop put a halt on public masses that is. I just think that the big cities and their areas are already hit pretty hard. The tests are just catching up at this point.

But you’re right about the more rural areas though. And for folks who don’t venture out. I definitely agree that quarantine is the best option, but I just feel like it’s too little too late at this point. 

[alexava 6,973]

2 hours ago, lca408 said:

Sure, but that’s the thing. It’s been here at least since mid to late January, possibly earlier. Social distancing and quarantine has only been in place for about a week and a half. That’s almost 2 months that it’s been able to spread unimpeded across the country. The only reason states like Alabama lagged behind in confirmed cases was because our testing apparatus took so long to get in place. The actual number of current cases has to be at least 2-3 times what it currently is. As testing becomes more available, the number grows really high. But it seems to me that’s more of a reflection of people finally being tested as opposed to actual spread, which at this point, it’s basically everywhere. 

I’d say if you tested the entire population you would have more than 2-3 times the positives. Not many people get sick even less get critical but hospitals can’t handle the amount that will. It would probably be better contained if everyone did get sick. 

[tgrogan21 6,198]

5 hours ago, passthebiscuits said:

Yes except his initial math is wrong. Flu has R-0 of 1.4, so 1.4 to the 10th power=29.

so 1 case of flu infects 29.

still, 1 case of Covid infects 59K.

 

In the video he did say that the flu was 1.3-1.4, his math was based on the 1.3. Still, though, the big takeaway is the number infected from Covid. The last sentence in that video is so true.

[passthebiscuits 6,846]

1 hour ago, tgrogan21 said:

In the video he did say that the flu was 1.3-1.4, his math was based on the 1.3. Still, though, the big takeaway is the number infected from Covid. The last sentence in that video is so true

Ah. Cool. Very true. My bad. He went with the lower number for effect.

Either way 59k>13 or 29.

[KnightTiger 205]

When will we hear an announcement on the status of College football 2020 season! IMO Most likely Mid-May/Mid June

[passthebiscuits 6,846]

I predict that by early May we will be back at it..including figuring out Practice schedules. If students/athletes get  back by, say, the second week of July, the season can go on like normal. 

Any later than that, I predict that the season would be delayed by a week or two.

There WILL be a second spike in cases tho around October. When that happens, I wonder if we will repeat some of this.