Offensive Game Analysis

[LPTiger 5,167]

Several people have asked what the passing game looked like from someone who was in the stadium.  Were the receivers not getting open?  Was the QB not seeing the receivers?  Etc. Etc. Let me preface my comments by saying  -- this game was the most unusual/odd/error filled/haphazardly play called offensive game I have ever seen Auburn WIN.   Here are my takes:

1. Going into the game our offensive coaches were pretty confident we were going to be able to line up and run it successfully right at Cal. On the off chance that didn't work, we, of course, planned to open the game up. The play calling showed it, and we were not effective running it early. Our first 5 plays were running plays -- 4 of them were by Hunter for a combined 10 yards.  I couldn't tell on the Thorne fumble on the first drive whether he had picked up a first down -- CBS' and ESPN's play by play shows he picked up 7 yards which would have been a first down.   Regardless, if I recall correctly, Thorne should have checked to a simple QB middle draw. Cal had 3 down lineman and I believe both backers were on the edges in coverage. Our first pass attempt came on our 6th play and because everybody knew we were throwing, Thorne was sacked. Our first 3 first down calls were runs (more on that in a second).

2. Because of our turnovers and general inefficiency, Cal ran 40% more plays than we did 78 - 55.  Relatedly, they ran 40% more 1st down plays than we did 32 - 23. Cal was very balanced on 1st down plays and on all plays whereas we were very run heavy on 1st down and on all plays.  17 of Cal's 32 1st down calls were pass plays, and 15 were runs. 5 of our 1st down calls were pass plays(4 for Thorne and 1 for Ashford) and 18 were runs.  While Cal, on first down, was nearly equally as likely to throw the ball as to run it, we were more than 3x as likely to run it.   Similar to the 1st down calls, overall, Cal ran it 40 times and threw it 38 times whereas we ran it 38 times and threw it just 17 times. Again, overall, Cal was nearly equally balanced, and we were more than twice as likely to run it. So, with respect to Thorne's passing, we didn't call a game that helped him.  We only give him 6 opportunities on 1st down: 1 incomplete, 1 sack, 1 int, 1 complete but called back, 1 complete and 1 interference call -- so only 4 of his 1st down plays counted in his stats.

3.  Let's look at the down and distance for each pass play:

3rd and 6 -- Thorne sack.

1st and 10 Thorne Inc.

3rd and 8 Thorne Inc.

1st down Throne complete for 4 yards, next play

2nd and 6 Thorne complete for 1st down 

2nd and 4 Ashford complete for 0 yards

3rd and 4 false start Miller

3rd and 9 Ashford incomplete

3rd and 6 Thorne TD

2nd and 7 Thorne complete 1st down

2nd and 8 Thorne Complete

3rd and 2 Thorne incomplete

1st and 10 Thorne complete for 17 yards to Fairweather but Stutts called for being downfield

1st and 15 Thorne INt

3rd and 15 Thorne Inc

1st and 10 Ashford Incomplete

2nd and 10 Thorne sacked

3rd and 17 Thorne complete for 28 yards

1st and 10 Thorne sacked

2nd and 14 Thorne complete for 12 yards

3rd and 2 Thorne complete for 1st down

1st and 10 Thorne pass interference

2nd and 5 Thorne TD

So Thorne was 9 of 14 65%, for 2 TDs and 1 int and would have been 10/15 67% but for the penalty on Stutts.  Ashford was 1 of 3 for 0 yards.  72% of Thorne's attempts were on 2nd or 3rd down. 66% of Thorne's completions either went for a first down or for a TD.  3 of his 5 incomplete passes were on 3rd down.  The int was not a perfectly thrown ball by any stretch, but I suspect Hooks thinks he should have caught it. Thorne was 4 for 4 on his last 4 attempts (all on the last TD drive) including huge pickups on 3rd and 17 and 2nd and 14 and threw a perfectly placed pass to Fairweather for the deciding play of the game.   

3.  We could not get into an offensive rhythm and when we did we had an unforced error.  Examples, on the play immediately before the interception, Thorne made a nice throw to Fairweather for 17 yards, but Stutts was called for ineligible man downfield.  Instead of 1st and 10 at the 41, we go to 1st and 15 at the 19.  Next play, pick. On consecutive plays, Miller gives up a sack and then commits a hold on the reverse that negated a big play and was totally unnecessary.  Robby threw 3 times for 0 yards and had 4 rushes for 8 yards. Those substitutions IMO (1) were ineffective (2) disrupted any rhythm Thorne had and (3) prevented him from doing his best because, again IMO, he was afraid of messing up -- he held the ball a couple of times where an accurate throw would have resulted in a completion. On one play in particular, he had JJ open early on a seam route up the west sideline on their side of the 50 -- the safety was trying to get over, but PT had a good second maybe a second and a half where he could have fitted the ball. Now could that have been a result of him not seeing JJ, maybe. But, the play was coming to our corner of the end zone and it appeared PT looked at JJ and simply chose not to try to make the throw. Fast forward to when the game is on the line and Thorne isn't thinking about anything other than we have to score -- he throws 4 completions, including an absolute dime, and gets another PI call.  

4. The turnovers came at critical times in the ball game.  1st drive by us, PT scrambles for what looks like a 1st down but gets the ball punched out from behind. Despite the gift inside of our 40, the D forces a FG. We stunk up our second possession, and we have to punt from our 1.  Oscar doesn't hit it good and they are set up again at our 33.  They pick up a 1st down but Harris gets a sack that stalls the drive. On the FG attempt Simpson gets a huge rush from the right and causes the kicker to miss IMO. We have another quick 5 play drive but this time Oscar booms a 49 yard punt with no return. 1st and 10 at their 13.  They go nowhere. Punt to us. We go nowhere, but Oscar pins them again inside their 20. They fumble on their 1st play and 3 plays later, despite us twice giving them the ball inside of our 40, we take the lead and the momentum 7-3. Our d feels the momentum and gives up only 11 yards before Cal has to punt.  We run Mari for 13. PT completes one to Mari for 8.  PT runs to midfield. Cal is on their heels.  Mari next carries it for 15 yards to their 35 BUT FUMBLES.  We are running toward our section, which is going absolute nuts, and if we only maintain control of the ball I think we easily go up 14-3.  Who knows how that might have changed the game.  Instead, after the fumble they go down and score a TD.  2 turnovers leads to all of their points.  2 possessions later our D has held again and our 1st play is a 17 yard completion to Fairweather to near mid-field but Stutts negates the play with being downfield.  Next play int. Again it felt we had real momentum but we turned it over again. We get the mo back 2 possessions later when we march 73 yards for a TD. We then get a 3 and out.   Hunter rips off a huge 22 yard gain and it feels like we are about to deliver the kill punch and Hunter fumbles on the next play.   3 fumbles and they all came at critical times in the game.

5. Here is the weirdest stat you may ever see in a game -- if you don't count the last possession where we ran the clock out -- we had 12 possessions. 11 of the 12 were for 5 plays or less. 6 of the 12 were for 3 plays or less. 10 of the 12 drives ended in either a punt, turnover or turnover on downs.  

6. We need to punt the 2 QB system or develop some packages where Robby does something other than a QB stretch. He needs something that looks like a run but turns into a pass. Trouble is you can't build an offense around that. Last year Robby completed just 48% of his passes and had 7 picks against 7 TDS. He could have easily had another pick on the scramble throw that he threw across his body Saturday. His rating last year was 107. This year Thorne is at 61% with 3 TDs and 1 pick. His rating is 150. And he has only had 6 weeks in a new offense with new teammates. I understand CHF wanting to keep Robby engaged, but his track record suggests he can never be QB 1. Playing Robby is holding PT back IMO. Is Thorne the best QB to come through AU -- certainly not yet. But after just 6 weeks, he looks much better than RA. If we will hand him the reins and allow him to grow. I think he could become one of our better QBs. 

[JerryAU 1,679]

The offensive play calling, personnel selection and especially the play choice at certain times were eerily reminiscent of someone else on our sidelines years ago.  The first 5 plays were scripted run plays, made my skin crawl a little when I saw them. 

[CR 2,446]

If the game plan continues to be a 2-1 or 3-1 run/pass ratio its gonna be a long season. Besides handcuffing this years offense, current and future WRs and QB recruits are going to believe what their eyes tell them is being put on the field. Id rather struggle attempting to open things up than try to grind out boring wins(which wont work anyway). 

Edited September 11, 2023 by CR

[LPTiger 5,167]

1 hour ago, CR said:

If the game plan continues to be a 2-1 or 3-1 run/pass ratio its gonna be a long season. Besides handcuffing this years offense, current and future WRs and QB recruits are going to believe what their eyes tell them is being put on the field. Id rather struggle attempting to open things up than try to grind out boring wins(which wont work anyway). 

100%.   The lack of first down throws was my biggest criticism of Hars.   We had more 1st down throws against UMass.   I suspect it was equal parts (1) we had convinced ourselves during film study that we could run on them and (2) it was our first road game.   I suspect that this week we will see Thorne uninterrupted for the first half, and we will see more diversity in the play calling.

[auburnatl1 4,984]

Instead of revisiting Saturday night and trying to understand it, I’ve decided to take a different approach.

[JuscAUse! 1,437]

3 minutes ago, auburnatl1 said:

Instead of revisiting Saturday night and trying to understand it, I’ve decided to take a different approach.

I agree.

[aucanucktiger 1,794]

Virtually every principled analysis like LP Tiger's shows the O line graded about a C- vs Cal. Two steps forward, 1 step back.

With the run heavy play calling, Freeze may be telling the O line y'all better LEARN how to run block before SEC play or you ain't going bowling.

[TigerPAC 967]

Agree 

although on the 1st turnover, it wasn’t punched out….Thorne just flat out let the ball go, kinda like he was throwing it on purpose (stupid in its own right 7 yards downfield) and landed in the belly of the cal defender 

[LPTiger 5,167]

7 minutes ago, TigerPAC said:

Agree 

although on the 1st turnover, it wasn’t punched out….Thorne just flat out let the ball go, kinda like he was throwing it on purpose (stupid in its own right 7 yards downfield) and landed in the belly of the cal defender 

Thank baby Jesus the refs called it dead!!!!!

 

[RunInRed 16,438]

Auburn’s offense needs to be better.

To wit:

✔️ Auburn struggled to beat California 14-10 last Saturday, and that had Freeze saying “we’ve had a lot of tough talks this morning” as the Tigers began preparing for Saturday’s game against Samford.

✔️ He said he’s looking for a better quarterback rotation with Payton Thorne and Robby Ashford. Freeze said Thorne needs to be more consistent and “I do think Robby has to get his touches.”

✔️ He wants more run-pass option plays, therefore “I probably need to be in more meetings.” He said he'd work closely with offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery this week. Auburn is last in the SEC in passing efficiency.

✔️ “But the bottom line,” he said, “is the Auburn Tigers are 2-0."

[bigbird 60,575]

3 hours ago, LPTiger said:

Thorne should have checked

I doubt he has that freedom just yet.

 

3 hours ago, LPTiger said:

Here is the weirdest stat you may ever see in a game -- if you don't count the last possession where we ran the clock out -- we had 12 possessions.  11 of the 12 were for 5 plays or less. 6 of the 12 were for 3 plays or less.   10 of the 12 drives ended in either a punt, turnover or turnover on downs.  

The Cal coaches just have to be shaking their heads.  That's one terrible stat line 

[Hank2020 3,212]

1 hour ago, auburnatl1 said:

Instead of revisiting Saturday night and trying to understand it, I’ve decided to take a different approach.

Thats a great one!!!

[Tiger Refuge 6,671]

2 hours ago, auburnatl1 said:

Instead of revisiting Saturday night and trying to understand it, I’ve decided to take a different approach.

Tried and true also works….

[fasttimes 356]

1 hour ago, aucanucktiger said:

Virtually every principled analysis like LP Tiger's shows the O line graded about a C- vs Cal. Two steps forward, 1 step back.

With the run heavy play calling, Freeze may be telling the O line y'all better LEARN how to run block before SEC play or you ain't going bowling.

my question was going to be about the oline.

seemed like Cal didn't think we could throw and sold out on the run. i also think they thought they would run a lot better against our defense than they did. the defense really won that game. the offense came through when they absolutely had to. despite the play being ugly i feel much better about this win than say mizzou last year.

[sevenlee36 1,654]

1 hour ago, RunInRed said:

Auburn’s offense needs to be better.

To wit:

✔️ Auburn struggled to beat California 14-10 last Saturday, and that had Freeze saying “we’ve had a lot of tough talks this morning” as the Tigers began preparing for Saturday’s game against Samford.

✔️ He said he’s looking for a better quarterback rotation with Payton Thorne and Robby Ashford. Freeze said Thorne needs to be more consistent and “I do think Robby has to get his touches.”

✔️ He wants more run-pass option plays, therefore “I probably need to be in more meetings.” He said he'd work closely with offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery this week. Auburn is last in the SEC in passing efficiency.

✔️ “But the bottom line,” he said, “is the Auburn Tigers are 2-0."

I like how Hugh said he only called a couple plays….. He made sure to mention that he called the game winner smh. Don’t think he needed to mention that. Kind of like saying all the bad call were my OC, but the couple good ones I called.

[TexasTiger 12,966]

15 minutes ago, sevenlee36 said:

I like how Hugh said he only called a couple plays….. He made sure to mention that he called the game winner smh. Don’t think he needed to mention that. Kind of like saying all the bad call were my OC, but the couple good ones I called.

That was kinda crappy. He knew, his OC knew. No need.

[TigerTennis80 345]

I'm hoping that CHF's seeming disappointment with Thorne's decision-making is due to him having a "you're capable of much better than this!" perspective on Thorne rather than an "Oh crap I hoped you'd be better" perspective. CHF also seems to believe that Robby has skills that we need to be able to use, but we've not yet figured out how to do so. I'm guessing we figure this out pretty quickly or abandon this possibility. I was pretty disappointed in the O-line play, but some of y'all had a different take on their play. I'd be curious to hear what you saw from them that you liked (a genuine question, not a challenge). I was more concerned to hear from CHF today that he didn't call plays & would be more involved in game planning & such going forward. I'm troubled that 2 games in he isn't comfortable with what the OC did. I hope someone can tell me I shouldn't be troubled by this & why.  

[RunInRed 16,438]

@LPTiger you’ve been holding out on us all these years! This analysis is awesome.

[auburnatl1 4,984]

36 minutes ago, RunInRed said:

@LPTiger you’ve been holding out on us all these years! This analysis is awesome.

@Dr_LpTiger?…

[DAG 33,998]

1 hour ago, TigerTennis80 said:

did. I hope someone can tell me I shouldn't be troubled by this & why.  

Because it’s not your job on the line.

[AUloggerhead 2,243]

16 hours ago, TigerPAC said:

Agree 

although on the 1st turnover, it wasn’t punched out….Thorne just flat out let the ball go, kinda like he was throwing it on purpose (stupid in its own right 7 yards downfield) and landed in the belly of the cal defender 

I think he was trying to extend the ball forward before going out of bounds.  He switches the ball from his right hand to his left just as he was tackled.  Start the video from about :20 seconds:  

 

[AUloggerhead 2,243]

16 hours ago, LPTiger said:

Thank baby Jesus the refs called it dead!!!!!

 

The Linesman behind Thorne was obviously looking at his foot stepping out of bounds & couldn't see the ball coming out of Thorne's hand before he stepped out.  Weird play but fortunate for AU(!)  

[Viper 3,132]

20 hours ago, LPTiger said:

this game was the most unusual/odd/error filled/haphazardly play called offensive game I have ever seen Auburn WIN

I’ve seen much worse. 

The 3-2 MSU win in 2008.

The 14-12 Tennessee win in 2008.

The 10-6 UCF win in 1998.

The 30-26 LSU win in 1994.

The latter takes the cake on “unusual/odd/error filled/haphazardly”

[LPTiger 5,167]

Funny story... Red put my post on X and one of my Napa travel mates clicked on it and said he was blown away...  He shared it with our Napa group..   I should have played it off, but promptly told the group LPTiger was me....

[Hank2020 3,212]

21 hours ago, sevenlee36 said:

I like how Hugh said he only called a couple plays….. He made sure to mention that he called the game winner smh. Don’t think he needed to mention that. Kind of like saying all the bad call were my OC, but the couple good ones I called.

It seemed pretty clear to me in the way it went down that he changed his mind on the play from the sidelines.