The Dennis Ross (NYT) Trial Balloon: I Might Have Once Favored a Cease-Fire With Hamas, but Not Now

[DKW 86 7,481]

I Might Have Once Favored a Cease-Fire With Hamas, but Not Now

By Dennis B. Ross

Mr. Ross is a former U.S. envoy to the Middle East.

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For 35 years, I’ve devoted my professional life to U.S. peacemaking policy and conflict resolution and planning — whether in the former Soviet Union, a reunified Germany or postwar Iraq. But nothing has preoccupied me like finding a peaceful and lasting solution between Israel and the Palestinians.

In the past, I might have favored a cease-fire with Hamas during a conflict with Israel. But today it is clear to me that peace is not going to be possible now or in the future as long as Hamas remains intact and in control of Gaza. Hamas’s power and ability to threaten Israel — and subject Gazan civilians to ever more rounds of violence — must end.

After Oct. 7, there are many Israelis who believe their survival as a state is at stake. That may sound like an exaggeration, but to them, it’s not. If Hamas persists as a military force and is still running Gaza after this war is over, it will attack Israel again. And whether or not Hezbollah opens a true second front from Lebanon during this conflict, it, too, will attack Israel in the future. The aim of these groups, both of which are backed by Iran, is to make Israel unlivable and drive Israelis to leave: While Iran has denied involvement in the Hamas attack, Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has long talked about Israel not surviving for another 25 years, and his strategy has been to use these militant proxies to achieve that goal.

Given the strength of Israel’s military — by far the most powerful in the region — the aims of Iran and its collaborators seemed implausible until a few weeks ago. But the events of Oct. 7 changed everything. As one commander in the Israeli military said, “If we do not defeat Hamas, we cannot survive here.”

Israel is not alone in believing it must defeat Hamas. Over the past two weeks, when I talked to Arab officials throughout the region whom I have long known, every single one told me that Hamas must be destroyed in Gaza. They made clear that if Hamas is perceived as winning, it will validate the group’s ideology of rejection, give leverage and momentum to Iran and its collaborators and put their own governments on the defensive.

But they said this in private. Their public postures have been quite different. Only a few Arab states openly condemned the Hamas massacre of more than 1,400 people in Israel. Why? Because Arab leaders understood that as Israel retaliated and Palestinian casualties and suffering grew, their own citizens would be outraged and they needed to be seen as standing up for the Palestinians, at least rhetorically.

Nowhere was the instinct to cater to the mood of the street more vividly revealed than in the quick denunciations of Israel after Hamas claimed that Israel bombed Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza. Israel has denied hitting the hospital but in several Arab countries, Hamas’s claims were accepted. At this point, multiple national intelligence agencies have said it was most likely a Palestinian rocket that hit the hospital.

 

Nevertheless, people across the region — and the world — saw Israel bombing Gaza and were ready to believe this, too, was deliberately done. Even the United Arab Emirates, which had condemned the Hamas attack, issued a later statement condemning “the Israeli attack that targeted Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in the Gaza Strip, resulting in the death and injury of hundreds of people.” It went on to call on “the international community to intensify efforts to reach an immediate cease-fire to prevent further loss of life.”

As Israel's aerial bombardment of Gaza picks up in pace and civilian casualties rise, international calls for an immediate cease-fire are mounting. Some are calling for Israel to call off a ground invasion. But ending the war now would mean Hamas would win. At present, its military infrastructure still exists, its leadership remains largely intact, and its political control of Gaza is unchallenged. As Hamas did after conflicts with Israel in 2009, 2012, 2014 and 2021, the group will almost certainly rearm and restore. It will be able to add to its system of tunnels running under the enclave. The strip will remain impoverished, and the next round of war will be inevitable, holding both Gazan civilians and much of the rest of the Middle East hostage to Hamas’s aims.

An Israeli ground campaign would come at an extremely high cost. If it proceeds, invading Israeli soldiers will surely lose their lives, and there will be even more Palestinian casualties, a tragedy Hamas has ensured by embedding itself and its military capability in communities, using hospitals, mosques and schools to store its ammunition. But defeating Hamas cannot be done only with strategic strikes from the air, any more than we were able to root out ISIS in Mosul, Iraq, or Raqqa, Syria, from the air. In that fight, the United States had local partners who did the terrible and costly ground fighting in cities while our forces largely devastated them from above.

What would a defeat of Hamas mean? It would mean its military infrastructure, much of which is physically connected to civilian infrastructure, was largely destroyed and its leadership decimated, leaving the group without the capacity to block a reconstruction for demilitarization formula for Gaza, as it did in the past. In essence, this would mean there would be no war-making capacity in Gaza and that capacity could not be rebuilt.

That formula must guide the day-after reality in Gaza. It would require Israel to remain in Gaza after the fighting ends until it could hand over to some kind of an interim administration to prevent a vacuum and begin the enormous task of reconstruction. That administration should be largely run by Palestinian technocrats — from Gaza, the West Bank or the diaspora — under an international umbrella, which would include Arab and non-Arab nations. The United States would need to mobilize and organize the effort, possibly using an umbrella like the United Nations or the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee donor group to the Palestinians or even acting on the proposal by President Emmanuel Macron of France to use the international anti-ISIS coalition to counter Hamas. Such a coalition could help create the division of labor that would be necessary.

For example, Morocco, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain could provide police — not military forces — to ensure security for the new civil administration and those responsible for reconstruction. Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E and Qatar could provide the bulk of the funding for reconstruction, explaining their roles as necessary to relieve the suffering of the Palestinians in Gaza and help them recover. Canada and others could provide monitoring mechanisms to ensure that assistance would go to its intended purposes.

Of course, the mood in Gaza after the fighting is over will be grim and angry. Thousands of civilians have been killed, according to the Hamas-run Gazan Health Ministry. Vast swaths of the enclave are uninhabitable. But it is worth noting that polls taken not long before the Oct. 7 attack revealed that 62 percent of Gazans were against Hamas breaking the cease-fire at the time with Israel. Getting aid into Gaza quickly and starting the reconstruction effort as soon as the fighting stops could help show residents that life can get better when Hamas is no longer preventing the rebuilding of Gaza.

How Israel would conduct a ground campaign would affect all of this and even whether such a day-after reality could materialize. For Israel to reduce the pressure from its neighbors and the international community to stop its attack, it must demonstrate more convincingly that it is fighting Hamas and is not trying to punish Palestinian civilians. It must create safe corridors for humanitarian assistance, including from Israeli territory through the Kerem Shalom crossing point. To alleviate the suffering, it should allow international groups, such as Doctors Without Borders, to operate safely there and include Israeli doctors who can set up field hospitals — something they have experience doing in Syria and Ukraine.

Israel’s political leaders need to clearly and publicly emphasize they will leave Gaza and lift the siege after Hamas has been militarily defeated and largely disarmed. They must communicate that they understand a political resolution is needed with the Palestinians more generally. That is not a message Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now conveying, given the shock in Israel and the makeup of his government. But it is one Israel’s partners in the region need to hear — and soon.

There are no easy solutions to Gaza, but there is only one path forward in this war. An outcome that leaves Hamas in control will doom not just Gaza but also much of the rest of the Middle East.

Edited November 6, 2023 by DKW 86

[DKW 86 7,481]

Short version: Israel is being contacted quietly by Moderate Muslim Govts in the ME and is being told to go ahead and take out Hamas. 

Moderate Muslims now realize that there can be no peace with the Radicals. Maybe dealing with ISIS taught them about just how crazy crazy can be. 

If you had to live with ISIS or Israel, who would you choose?

Edited November 9, 2023 by DKW 86

[Elephant Tipper 430]

There already was a cease fire in place before Hamas sent thousands of drug-induced crazies across the border, but Ross doesn't mention this ?  Since Ross is now so Gung Ho happy to openly fight these savages, then it was strange for him to not say a word about reprimanding these fence-sitting Arabs who want to keep their support against Hamas quiet.

Btw, the Democrat vision to make America less White using the Biden illegal immigration plan on the southern border is working exceedingly well and has already invited 10's of thousands of unvetted Arabs into this country.  Over the past few weeks we have witnessed a tremendous outpouring of support for Hamas and Palestinians across America that resembles the protests of the 60's, but this ain't about Peace and Love, it's about eradicating Israel.  How's that working out for you Dems ?  There are now almost as many Muslims in America as there are Jews and they are bringing their middle East methods of conflict resolution to us.  This "protest" is coming to small town America.

As DJT said repeatedly, "they're not sending their best or their brightest", but definitely smart enough to pick Pelosi's grapes....or, possibly more ?

#DJT2024

[I_M4_AU 8,054]

Why does the *moderate* Muslims keep quiet on this.  Why can’t they be proactive and help shut down Hamas?  At least publicly state their opinions about the conflict?

[homersapien 11,511]

1 hour ago, Elephant Tipper said:

Btw, the Democrat vision to make America less White...

 

Good grief.

That's truly nuts.

[DKW 86 7,481]

2 hours ago, I_M4_AU said:

Why does the *moderate* Muslims keep quiet on this.  Why can’t they be proactive and help shut down Hamas?  At least publicly state their opinions about the conflict?

What the Moderate Leaders realize today is not what the people want at this time. They must feign outrage that they silently support. No one wants ISIS taking over all of the ME.

[DKW 86 7,481]

3 hours ago, Elephant Tipper said:

There already was a cease fire in place before Hamas sent thousands of drug-induced crazies across the border, but Ross doesn't mention this ?  Since Ross is now so Gung Ho happy to openly fight these savages, then it was strange for him to not say a word about reprimanding these fence-sitting Arabs who want to keep their support against Hamas quiet.

Btw, the Democrat vision to make America less White using the Biden illegal immigration plan on the southern border is working exceedingly well and has already invited 10's of thousands of unvetted Arabs into this country.  Over the past few weeks we have witnessed a tremendous outpouring of support for Hamas and Palestinians across America that resembles the protests of the 60's, but this ain't about Peace and Love, it's about eradicating Israel.  How's that working out for you Dems ?  There are now almost as many Muslims in America as there are Jews and they are bringing their middle East methods of conflict resolution to us.  This "protest" is coming to small town America.

As DJT said repeatedly, "they're not sending their best or their brightest", but definitely smart enough to pick Pelosi's grapes....or, possibly more ?

#DJT2024

You quoted trump. I would stop there but...

Ross now sees that there is no way out but by destruction of Hamas. That is good news to everyone. He has advocated for Cease fires and negotiating. Hamas may have shown too much what they are like with the Massacre of OCT 7.

Edited November 6, 2023 by DKW 86

[Elephant Tipper 430]

6 minutes ago, homersapien said:

Good grief.

That's truly nuts.

Dems every day talk about "diversity", yet in reality what they mean is less White and less Christian, which America is becoming.

Obviously you aren't watching footage of the 7.5 million+ who have crossed the southern border during Biden's administration.  That equals about a 2% change of the population makeup in just 2 1/2 years and doesn't include the "gotaways" (about 600K in just 2022 according to Mayorkas' Congressional testimony).  They ain't White and they ARE changing the demographics en masse of the border States, Alabama included, because of DEMOCRAT policies.  On camera, those who are crossing into America are praising Biden for allowing them to come for work and they are overwhelmingly young single males, not families.  We don't hear these people say they are coming because of persecution in their home country, we just don't, in fact, Pelosi has stated that they're needed to "pick the crops", which is what they've always done......in the past.

People over the past 3 decades have bragged about hiring illegals to do their menial chores for a cheap price.  These whom the government has allowed to stay until their "hearing" are now rooted into the community.  To afford their new homeland they've had to trade up in their income status.  They are now competitors with native-born Americans (South Carolinians included), Black and White, for the small business sector, primarily factories, small construction and yard maintenance, jobs that don't require a higher education which most illegals don't possess.  The population of these Hispanics in just Alabama has grown by almost 33% over the past decade.  Remember, these are non-tax paying non-Americans competing with your local native-born Americans for income.  We're taxed........they aren't.

But, but, but they can't vote !  No, not until they become legal, although Washington D.C. and other blue States have attempted to circumvent that by legalizing their "right" to vote in local elections.  In the meantime, these individuals and their DACA children are pushing for the right to vote, and even if they, themselves, can't vote, then they push their communities to support DACA and other illegal immigrant legislation.

In Atlanta I watched my sister's small church be supplanted by illegal, non-White immigrants.  The same is occurring with a small church in my hometown.  Once a White church, is now predominantly Hispanic.  That area of town has almost zero Hispanics.

The George Soros motto ?  Make America more like Mexico !  Make America a dump !

I've often wondered, When does the frog realize that the water it's in is about to actually boil ?

[homersapien 11,511]

Nice Fascist rant.

[Elephant Tipper 430]

As usual, No rebuttal Gomer rises to the occasion.  Always the drive-by ad hominem attack and never substance of thought.

Btw, why do you even pretend to know what the word "fascist" means, because clearly you don't.  You're just another liberal groupy who doesn't know what else to say.

[DKW 86 7,481]

1 hour ago, Elephant Tipper said:

Dems every day talk about "diversity", yet in reality what they mean is less White and less Christian, which America is becoming.

Obviously you aren't watching footage of the 7.5 million+ who have crossed the southern border during Biden's administration.  That equals about a 2% change of the population makeup in just 2 1/2 years and doesn't include the "gotaways" (about 600K in just 2022 according to Mayorkas' Congressional testimony).  They ain't White and they ARE changing the demographics en masse of the border States, Alabama included, because of DEMOCRAT policies.  On camera, those who are crossing into America are praising Biden for allowing them to come for work and they are overwhelmingly young single males, not families.  We don't hear these people say they are coming because of persecution in their home country, we just don't, in fact, Pelosi has stated that they're needed to "pick the crops", which is what they've always done......in the past.

People over the past 3 decades have bragged about hiring illegals to do their menial chores for a cheap price.  These whom the government has allowed to stay until their "hearing" are now rooted into the community.  To afford their new homeland they've had to trade up in their income status.  They are now competitors with native-born Americans (South Carolinians included), Black and White, for the small business sector, primarily factories, small construction and yard maintenance, jobs that don't require a higher education which most illegals don't possess.  The population of these Hispanics in just Alabama has grown by almost 33% over the past decade.  Remember, these are non-tax paying non-Americans competing with your local native-born Americans for income.  We're taxed........they aren't.

But, but, but they can't vote !  No, not until they become legal, although Washington D.C. and other blue States have attempted to circumvent that by legalizing their "right" to vote in local elections.  In the meantime, these individuals and their DACA children are pushing for the right to vote, and even if they, themselves, can't vote, then they push their communities to support DACA and other illegal immigrant legislation.

In Atlanta I watched my sister's small church be supplanted by illegal, non-White immigrants.  The same is occurring with a small church in my hometown.  Once a White church, is now predominantly Hispanic.  That area of town has almost zero Hispanics.

The George Soros motto ?  Make America more like Mexico !  Make America a dump !

I've often wondered, When does the frog realize that the water it's in is about to actually boil ?

You know, the Native Americans probably said the same things. Things change. Time marches on. 

NOTHING STAYS THE SAME.

[Elephant Tipper 430]

Try telling that to the Israelis.  What, 5,000 years of others trying to dispossess them of their land ?

[CoffeeTiger 5,227]

2 hours ago, Elephant Tipper said:

Dems every day talk about "diversity", yet in reality what they mean is less White and less Christian, which America is becoming.

Obviously you aren't watching footage of the 7.5 million+ who have crossed the southern border during Biden's administration.  That equals about a 2% change of the population makeup in just 2 1/2 years and doesn't include the "gotaways" (about 600K in just 2022 according to Mayorkas' Congressional testimony).  They ain't White and they ARE changing the demographics en masse of the border States, Alabama included, because of DEMOCRAT policies.  On camera, those who are crossing into America are praising Biden for allowing them to come for work and they are overwhelmingly young single males, not families.  We don't hear these people say they are coming because of persecution in their home country, we just don't, in fact, Pelosi has stated that they're needed to "pick the crops", which is what they've always done......in the past.

People over the past 3 decades have bragged about hiring illegals to do their menial chores for a cheap price.  These whom the government has allowed to stay until their "hearing" are now rooted into the community.  To afford their new homeland they've had to trade up in their income status.  They are now competitors with native-born Americans (South Carolinians included), Black and White, for the small business sector, primarily factories, small construction and yard maintenance, jobs that don't require a higher education which most illegals don't possess.  The population of these Hispanics in just Alabama has grown by almost 33% over the past decade.  Remember, these are non-tax paying non-Americans competing with your local native-born Americans for income.  We're taxed........they aren't.

But, but, but they can't vote !  No, not until they become legal, although Washington D.C. and other blue States have attempted to circumvent that by legalizing their "right" to vote in local elections.  In the meantime, these individuals and their DACA children are pushing for the right to vote, and even if they, themselves, can't vote, then they push their communities to support DACA and other illegal immigrant legislation.

In Atlanta I watched my sister's small church be supplanted by illegal, non-White immigrants.  The same is occurring with a small church in my hometown.  Once a White church, is now predominantly Hispanic.  That area of town has almost zero Hispanics.

The George Soros motto ?  Make America more like Mexico !  Make America a dump !

I've often wondered, When does the frog realize that the water it's in is about to actually boil ?

 

July 2, 1964 - Considered by Elephant Tipper to be one of the darkest days in American History. 

[Elephant Tipper 430]

1 hour ago, CoffeeTiger said:

 

July 2, 1964 - Considered by Elephant Tipper to be one of the darkest days in American History. 

You're a Hamas supporter ?  Really ?  No way !  Really ?

You mean the Democrat's Civil Rights Act of 1964 that the Democrats themselves almost choked on to pass ?  You mean THAT bill ?

Why would I be against what would relieve the suffering of millions of Americans ?

[CoffeeTiger 5,227]

1 hour ago, Elephant Tipper said:

You're a Hamas supporter ?  Really ?  No way !  Really ?

You mean the Democrat's Civil Rights Act of 1964 that the Democrats themselves almost choked on to pass ?  You mean THAT bill ?

Why would I be against what would relieve the suffering of millions of Americans ?

If some Hispanic people joining a majority white church causes you so much grief now, I can only imagine the struggle you faced when society desegregated back in the day.

 

 

[Elephant Tipper 430]

My, my.  How some don't possess basic reading comprehension skills.  You're being obtuse.  The word "supplant" means to uproot and remove, ie. displace.  It's not some "joining" as you inaccurately describe, these non-citizens are displacing others who are citizens, or don't you understand ?  This is in locations where these people don't live, or don't you understand that either ?  Kinda like how all the illegals who don't belong here are suddenly found to be here en masse displacing American workers.

[Gowebb11 9,427]

5 hours ago, Elephant Tipper said:

In Atlanta I watched my sister's small church be supplanted by illegal, non-White immigrants.  The same is occurring with a small church in my hometown.  Once a White church, is now predominantly Hispanic.  That area of town has almost zero Hispanics.

Imagine the horror. Your sister being forced to worship God with people who are non-white. The worst thing to happen to Jesus since he came over on the Mayflower and had to run the Indians off his land. 

Edited November 7, 2023 by Gowebb11

[Gowebb11 9,427]

1 minute ago, Elephant Tipper said:

My, my.  How some don't possess basic reading comprehension skills.  You're being obtuse.  The word "supplant" means to uproot and remove, ie. displace.  It's not some "joining" as you inaccurately describe, these non-citizens are displacing others who are citizens, or don't you understand ?  This is in locations where these people don't live, or don't you understand that either ?  Kinda like how all the illegals who don't belong here are suddenly found to be here en masse displacing American workers.

If you’ve been raised in this privileged nation and had access to free education your whole youth and get displaced by uneducated peasants (as you see them) who can’t even speak the language, that’s your own damn fault.

[icanthearyou 4,464]

On 11/6/2023 at 10:58 AM, homersapien said:

Good grief.

That's truly nuts.

Racists are inherently nutjobs.

 

[icanthearyou 4,464]

On 11/6/2023 at 6:35 PM, Gowebb11 said:

If you’ve been raised in this privileged nation and had access to free education your whole youth and get displaced by uneducated peasants (as you see them) who can’t even speak the language, that’s your own damn fault.

No, not really.  The goals of the powerful in this country have little to do with preserving anything other than their own capital.

If value is established by markets,,, then market power controls value.  Market power in consolidated markets is immense.

We want to believe that supply/demand curves are some free floating, always fair mechanism.  We failed to grasp the concept of market power in the two semesters of econ coursework.

The problem is not, too many "uneducated peasants".  The problem is no meaningful wage growth for over half a century.

[icanthearyou 4,464]

On 11/6/2023 at 1:20 PM, Elephant Tipper said:

Dems every day talk about "diversity", yet in reality what they mean is less White and less Christian, which America is becoming.

Obviously you aren't watching footage of the 7.5 million+ who have crossed the southern border during Biden's administration.  That equals about a 2% change of the population makeup in just 2 1/2 years and doesn't include the "gotaways" (about 600K in just 2022 according to Mayorkas' Congressional testimony).  They ain't White and they ARE changing the demographics en masse of the border States, Alabama included, because of DEMOCRAT policies.  On camera, those who are crossing into America are praising Biden for allowing them to come for work and they are overwhelmingly young single males, not families.  We don't hear these people say they are coming because of persecution in their home country, we just don't, in fact, Pelosi has stated that they're needed to "pick the crops", which is what they've always done......in the past.

People over the past 3 decades have bragged about hiring illegals to do their menial chores for a cheap price.  These whom the government has allowed to stay until their "hearing" are now rooted into the community.  To afford their new homeland they've had to trade up in their income status.  They are now competitors with native-born Americans (South Carolinians included), Black and White, for the small business sector, primarily factories, small construction and yard maintenance, jobs that don't require a higher education which most illegals don't possess.  The population of these Hispanics in just Alabama has grown by almost 33% over the past decade.  Remember, these are non-tax paying non-Americans competing with your local native-born Americans for income.  We're taxed........they aren't.

But, but, but they can't vote !  No, not until they become legal, although Washington D.C. and other blue States have attempted to circumvent that by legalizing their "right" to vote in local elections.  In the meantime, these individuals and their DACA children are pushing for the right to vote, and even if they, themselves, can't vote, then they push their communities to support DACA and other illegal immigrant legislation.

In Atlanta I watched my sister's small church be supplanted by illegal, non-White immigrants.  The same is occurring with a small church in my hometown.  Once a White church, is now predominantly Hispanic.  That area of town has almost zero Hispanics.

The George Soros motto ?  Make America more like Mexico !  Make America a dump !

I've often wondered, When does the frog realize that the water it's in is about to actually boil ?

Role Tied!  Them poor, powerless, colored peoples done took everthing.  Aint no room for no white christian man hear no more.  They done took my church two.

Thank god theys a wall with a gate in heaven.  St. Peter aint lettin none of these brown foreign criminals in.

You done lost me with your support of Isreal.  Them jews will not replace us ether.

 

[DKW 86 7,481]

Let's see. Where is the ignore button...

 

[homersapien 11,511]

On 11/6/2023 at 3:23 PM, Elephant Tipper said:

As usual, No rebuttal Gomer rises to the occasion.  Always the drive-by ad hominem attack and never substance of thought.

Btw, why do you even pretend to know what the word "fascist" means, because clearly you don't.  You're just another liberal groupy who doesn't know what else to say.

Weren't you kicked off this forum a couple of years ago?

Who let you back on?

Edited November 10, 2023 by homersapien

[homersapien 11,511]

On 11/6/2023 at 4:55 PM, CoffeeTiger said:

 

July 2, 1964 - Considered by Elephant Tipper to be one of the darkest days in American History. 

Well - as is typical of many white nationalists - at least he's up-front and demonstrative in his racism.

I was a little surprise that jj3jordan supports this.  I knew he was a self-identified fundamentalist Christian, but I didn't just automatically assume that meant he was racist as well.  I suppose I should have figured as much.  

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by homersapien

[homersapien 11,511]

On 11/6/2023 at 3:44 PM, DKW 86 said:

You know, the Native Americans probably said the same things. Things change. Time marches on. 

NOTHING STAYS THE SAME.

Not in his world.  He wants Trump to make America great again.

Edited November 13, 2023 by homersapien