Another BCS blowup in the works?

[DKW 86 7,510]

Link-bodda-bink

Computer, human polls disagree

BCS championship game again could omit worthy teams

By D. ORLANDO LEDBETTER , JEFF D'ALESSIO

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Published on: 10/11/05

With less than a week until the first Bowl Championship Series standings come out, college football looks like it could be headed for another mess.

Ten months after an unbeaten Auburn team was denied a shot at the national championship, the pollsters and computers can't agree on who's No. 1.

 

POLLING PLACE

Several computer rankings that will be used in next week's BCS standings see college football's elite differently than the pollsters. Comparing a few teams' standings in the Colley Matrix and Associated Press polls:

School, AP rank, Colley Matrix

USC,      1,                6

Texas,    2,                8

VT,        3,                5

FSU,      5,                2

Oregon, 20,              7

Or No. 2, for that matter.

Southern Cal is No. 1 in all three major polls ... and No. 6 this week in the Colley Matrix rankings, one of six computer formulas that will count as one-third of the BCS formula when the standings come out Monday.

Unbeaten Alabama is sixth in one human poll, seventh in the two that count ... and 20th in Richard Billingsley's computer rankings, another formula the BCS uses.

The ACC has two unbeatens (Virginia Tech, Florida State). So do the SEC (Georgia, Alabama), the Big 12 (Texas, Texas Tech) and the Pac-10 (USC, UCLA).

And then there's 6-0 Penn State — No. 9 in the Harris Interactive poll, No. 10 in the coaches poll and No. 1 according to Wes Colley's computer, for which strength of schedule is a major criterion.

"Penn State's opponents are a combined 17-13. USC's opponents are 9-15," the founder of the Colley Matrix rankings said. "Bottom line, both are undefeated, but Penn State has beaten better competition." (The Nittany Lions also have posted four wins against teams in the Colley Matrix top 50; the Trojans have beaten two.)

Southern Cal steps up in competition this weekend when it travels to Notre Dame, one of several key games involving an unbeaten team that could have an impact on how the first BCS standings shake out. Second-ranked Texas hosts No. 24 Colorado. Penn State goes to Michigan.

A loss by any of them — especially No. 1 Southern Cal or No. 2 Texas — would throw the polls into a frenzy.

If the unbeatens all win this weekend, Southern Cal and Texas would likely sit 1-2 in the BCS standings, upsetting fans of Virginia Tech (No. 3 in both polls), Georgia (No. 4) and FSU (No. 5). The polls count for two-thirds of the BCS formula; the average of the computer polls counts for the other third.

"Probably the only team that could be No. 2 over us would be Virginia Tech simply because they are No. 3 — unless things change in the next week," said Texas coach Mack Brown, whose 5-0 Longhorns are No. 8 — one spot behind a one-loss Oregon team — in the Colley Matrix rankings.

Brown doesn't expect many teams to be unbeaten come the end of the regular season; the SEC and ACC championship games and the Texas-Texas Tech and USC-UCLA games will take care of at least four of them.

But there could be as many as four teams from BCS conferences with no losses headed into bowl season — the winners of the SEC and ACC championship games and the champions of the Pac-10 and Big Ten (if it's Penn State). Neither the Pac-10 nor the Big Ten has a conference title game.

That would be sure to reignite the cry for college football to go to a playoff format.

"The [bCS] system is based on two opinion polls and a computer poll. That's just the system," said Grant Teaff, president of the American Football Coaches Association, which organizes the USA Today coaches poll.

"Everybody, I think, certainly felt badly for Auburn last year, but again, it is the system that we are under. There is not anything that we can do about it."

[PChamp119 96]

But there could be as many as four teams from BCS conferences with no losses headed into bowl season — the winners of the SEC and ACC championship games and the champions of the Pac-10 and Big Ten (if it's Penn State). Neither the Pac-10 nor the Big Ten has a conference title game.

This guy lost a lot of credibility in forgetting the Easy Big XII and how easy it is to go undefeated in that conference.

But then again, what is there to worry about.... everything will work itself out... right?

[Tigermike 3,118]

It is conceivable that there could be 4 to 6 undefeated teams from major conferences.

Possibly

SOCAL

PENN STATE

FSU

VIRGINIA TECH

TEXAS

TEXAS TECH

ALABAMA

GEORGIA

UCLA

Some of these will take care of their selves, SOCAL & UCLA play each other

FSU & VIRGINIA TECH could play in the ACC Championship game.

BAMA & GEORGIA could play in the SEC Championship game.

TEXAS & TEXAS TECH play each other.

So the list of unbeaten teams will decrease by the time the bowls come around.

[TigerOne 1,161]

will beat uat

the next question is will have to beat

twice?

[ECEstudentUA 9]

It is conceivable that there could be 4 to 6 undefeated teams from major conferences.

Possibly

SOCAL

PENN STATE

FSU

VIRGINIA TECH

TEXAS

TEXAS TECH

ALABAMA

GEORGIA

UCLA

Some of these will take care of their selves, SOCAL & UCLA play each other

FSU & VIRGINIA TECH could play in the ACC Championship game.

BAMA & GEORGIA could play in the SEC Championship game.

TEXAS & TEXAS TECH play each other.

So the list of unbeaten teams will decrease by the time the bowls come around.

188033[/snapback]

Yea, I dont think there will be much question if Texas and USC end up undefeated. They will be in the Rose Bowl.....The winner of the SEC will be in the Sugar in less maybe both of these two loose ( VT and FSU). I really dont think the winner of the SEC (if unbeaten) has a shot at the MNC. I forgot about Penn St. Um, well......i have no clue really....it will all pan out.....who knows the two undefeated teams in the SEC might lose this weekend.

[WarTim 3,457]

You are correct, IMHO. The SEC Champion, even IF undefeated, has no chance at the mnc.

TX-USC are destined to meet. Unless, One of them lose. Then, Old Notre Dame will step in.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

In any event, there is likely to be three or more undefeated teams in which case it will be interesting to see what officials and fans of the school(s) left out say and how that compares to Auburn last year. Can you imagine if the team left out was bama and we could go back and see the comments made on their boards last year. Dang, that would be fun

[Tigerwalkin 2]

WAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYY to early to even worry about the BCS rankings. I think there will be one, maybe two (if that) teams undefeated at the end of the regular season. I don't see anybody in the country right now that I can say will definately be in the MNC game. USC's offense is great, but their D is pretty crappy. There's a good chance they loose to ND this weekend. Texas probably has the easiest road to going undefeated and I don't think anybody in the SEC will be undefeated at the end of the regular season. It will be interesting to watch it all pan out.

[Guest Tigrinum Major]

In any event, there is likely to be three or more undefeated teams in which case it will be interesting to see what officials and fans of the school(s) left out say and how that compares to Auburn last year. Can you imagine if the team left out was bama and we could go back and see the comments made on their boards last year. Dang, that would be fun

188039[/snapback]

While it might be poetic justice, I'll trade that for beating them this year. I have often thought the same thing, PT, but I had rather have the victory and bragging rights.

[tgr4lfe 220]

I agree if USC and Texas win out they are in it,IF there are no other unbeatens. What will be interesting is if Va Tech, FSU, or Penn St continue to play well and win out, will voters jump them over Texas. Some voters are already voting Va Tech #2 in their ballots for the AP. I hope at least 4 of these USC, Texas, Va TEch, FSU, Penn St., all win out....just to see what the BCS does. That will be mayhem...then at least 2 teams would get what we felt being left out. I think Texas has the easiest run to going undefeated. Texas TEch and Colorado being their biggest threats now. USC is pretty easy also I just can't see them continuing to be able to come from behind all the dang time. A very good defense will beat USC. They have played nobody with a good D. I think they lose to Notre Dame, Cal, or UCLA. Va Tech will not be easy having to play Boston College and Miami, both ranked and UVA and Maryland. FSU has games against UVA, Maryland, NC State, and UF. Penn State is shaping up to have the toughest schedule of the bunch as they said...having Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan St. I know UGA and Bama are undefeated and in the top 10 but both their roads have to lead thru getting by AUBURN.

I just hope 3 or more go undefeated so there is another BCS pile up and hopefully it forces some major changes leading toward a playoff system!!!

[tgr4lfe 220]

You are correct, IMHO. The SEC Champion, even IF undefeated, has no chance at the mnc.

TX-USC are destined to meet. Unless, One of them lose. Then, Old Notre Dame will step in.

188038[/snapback]

I agree Tim. Sad state when a dominant SEC team cannot win out and know they are going to play for the NC. The pre-season polls are destroying college football. Everybody gets wrapped up as that being the starting point and not letting teams play and then deciding who is the best of the best!!

[SouthLink02 8]

I said this before and I will say it again.

Auburn should declare themselves the NC of last year.

If UGA wins out and wins their bowl game, you better damn well believe that I will call UGA the National Champs.

I could give a rats ass if a poll says so or not. Going undefeated in the SEC and not getting even a chance to play in the NC game? Give me a break.

[WarEagle_57 0]

In college football, everyone might as well decide for themselves who the NC is. It's as credible as anything else. I think Auburn might win their second straight WE_57 NC if they win out.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

In any event, there is likely to be three or more undefeated teams in which case it will be interesting to see what officials and fans of the school(s) left out say and how that compares to Auburn last year. Can you imagine if the team left out was bama and we could go back and see the comments made on their boards last year. Dang, that would be fun

188039[/snapback]

While it might be poetic justice, I'll trade that for beating them this year. I have often thought the same thing, PT, but I had rather have the victory and bragging rights.

188046[/snapback]

TM, I absolutely agree. I didn't mean to imply otherwise. I just meant that if by chance they did there would be MNC justice.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

I said this before and I will say it again.

Auburn should declare themselves the NC of last year.

188051[/snapback]

We did and LSU TigerForum had a meltdown and it is still mentioned everyday along with the rings TT got for them

[RadioWryn 0]

Well, in all fairness to UGA, I think this is a terribly down year for the SEC. New coaches at LSU, Florida, South Carolina. New QB's at Auburn, UGA, LSU (somewhat). We had a middle-of-the-road SEC team give up 70 to Southern Cal. We had Ole Miss lose to Vandy.. who lost to Middle Tennessee. Heck, even Bama (who an argument can be made is the best team in the conference, when perfectly healthy, struggled mightily with Middle Tennesse..)

I don't think an undefeated Georgia team (with a 2-point win over S. Carolina) or an undefeated Bama team (Middle Tennessee, Arkansas were close) deserve to go.

[texaubie 0]

Anybody that goes undefeated deserves to play on for the NC. We need a playoff system and until then it is just a beauty contest.

[AUwingsfan 1]

Welll my biggest hope outside of Auburn winning out is that USC loses a game and then all of the media will have to find someone else to pencil in for the championship each week, I hate how everyone seems to talk about them being there like it's a certainty. I think they'll lose to Notre Dame this weekend as Weis has had an entire week off to gameplan and they may even lose to Cal or UCLA....I say this because Arizona hung in there much longer than I thought they would and in a few of the games I've seen they've had they really didn't look like the greatest team in the world like they are supposed to be, it was just a matter of their opponents not being able to take advantage of opportunities or just being awful....but I'm probably dreaming, but I do look for ND to give them a scare at least. I wish that if we won out somehow we could play for the championship, and heck any SEC team that wins the conference with one loss, yet alone undefeated deserves a shot at the title....Texas looks good, but the biggest team they've beaten is Ohio State who has seemed to me to be overrated the past few years. I think that VA Tech looks like a good team also, but I guess we'll see how good they are when they play Miami

[sportwareagle 0]

Anybody that goes undefeated deserves to play on for the NC.  We need a playoff system and until then it is just a beauty contest.

188069[/snapback]

I definitely agree because with the other logic, no one should have played for the NC last year since we won by only one to LSU and USC only won by five against UCLA. That doesn't work, someone has to go, and it shouldn't matter how much you beat someone by, but more, who you beat and how many top teams you beat!!!

With that said, AUBURN NATIONAL CHAMPS 2004!!!!!

WAR DAMN EAGLE

[SouthLink02 8]

Well, in all fairness to UGA, I think this is a terribly down year for the SEC.

Big 10 has nobody (PSU will lose)

Big XII has Texas...uh...thats it...

Pac-10 has USC....and USC....and then USC....

ACC has FSU and Tech....Miami is far from great

No conference has several VERY GOOD TEAMS so the SEC could challenge to still be the toughest.

No one thought Miami would lose to OSU either and it happened. Nobody thought USC would murder OU and it happened.

Just like nobody knows if AU would have beaten USC or not last year. I think USC would have won but I have no idea. I think UGA will beat UF every year and it rarely happens.

[quietfan 233]

IF Penn State continues to win, they may climb and even get a shot at the Rose Bowl simply because of "Big Ten" bias and nostalgia for Joe Pa's sake among the northeastern writers. There'll be a lot of sympathy to let him go out on a high note.

[Draven 0]

I really see USC going down to someone this year, I can't say the same about Texas and V.Tech. UGA has the best chance of going undefeated in the SEC since they have in Athens, I just don't see even if they can anyone jumping either Texas or V.Tech.

[WarTim 3,457]

Well, in all fairness to UGA, I think this is a terribly down year for the SEC.

Big 10 has nobody (PSU will lose)

Big XII has Texas...uh...thats it...

Pac-10 has USC....and USC....and then USC....

ACC has FSU and Tech....Miami is far from great

No conference has several VERY GOOD TEAMS so the SEC could challenge to still be the toughest.

No one thought Miami would lose to OSU either and it happened. Nobody thought USC would murder OU and it happened.

Just like nobody knows if AU would have beaten USC or not last year. I think USC would have won but I have no idea. I think UGA will beat UF every year and it rarely happens.

188079[/snapback]

Slink, althought it is a bit early, I think your puppies will handle the GAYtors at least as well as uat did. As I have said before, I think UGA may be the best team in the SEC as of today. Good defense, Good offense, Good kicking game, VERY good coaching staff.

Time will tell......

[SouthLink02 8]

We won't go undefeated. Whether it is Florida or Auburn, we will lose one.

I can't imagine how angry I will be IF UGA went undefeated and didn't make the NC game.

I really couldn't.....I don't know how you all did it.

[bamafan4ever 0]

Does anyone know whether or not the Jeff Sangrin (sp?) ratings will be used as part of the BCS formula this year? If so, that system is a joke. They currently have UGA 13th and the Big Ten ranked #1. (SEC 3rd)