SEC-West (3-yr comparison)

[StatTiger 3,188]

Over the past 3 seasons, the top-4 teams within the Southeastern Conference are Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Arkansas based on overall win percentage.

Alabama: 36-4

LSU: 33-7

Auburn: 30-10

Arkansas: 29-10

It’s a major swing in power towards the SEC-West with Florida and Georgia dropping from 2 of the top 3 positions during 2006-2008. Alabama, LSU and Arkansas completed the 2011 season ranked in the Associated Press Top-5. What has been the key for success over the past three seasons?

Run-Offense:

Auburn: 227.8 YPG

Alabama: 204.4 YPG

LSU: 171.1 YPG

Arkansas: 139.3 YPC

Except for Arkansas, the key to success for the remaining Western powers has been the success of their running games. Even though Arkansas has averaged only 139.3 yards per games, the absence of Knile Davis in 2011, prevented the Razorbacks of being more balanced on offense. His return in 2012 will make Arkansas even more difficult to defend. Over time, Petrino has proven he will run the ball, when the horses are there.

Run-Defense:

Alabama: 86.6 YPG

LSU: 119.5 YPG

Auburn: 150.5 YPG

Arkansas: 161.0 YPG

Alabama has been nearly impossible to run on over the past three seasons, allowing only 86.6 yards per game on the ground. 30 of their last 40 opponents have been held below 120-yards rushing. LSU has been fairly consistent allowing only 119.5 yards per game. Auburn has struggled but their 2010 defense did possess a top-10 run defense, which was key to winning a national championship. If Arkansas is going to win a conference title, they will need to improve defensively. The Razorbacks have surrendered 150-yards rushing in 16 of their last 39 games, posting a 9-7 record in those contests.

Pass-efficiency Offense:

Arkansas: 153.5

Alabama: 149.8

Auburn: 149.2

LSU: 131.9

Bobby Petrino’s pro-styled pass offense is vertical and dangerous to defend. It’s the primary reason why the Razorbacks have won 29 games over the past 3 seasons. As much attention as Alabama’s defense receives for their success on the field, Coach Jim McElwain did a splendid job with the Crimson Tide offense. Over the past 3 seasons, his offenses possessed the second best running attack and the second most efficient pass-offense. LSU’s poor pass-offense was the primary reason they lost the BCSNC game and has been the lacking ingredient in their offense over the past 3 years.

Pass-efficiency Defense:

Alabama: 91.6

LSU: 105.4

Arkansas: 124.1

Auburn: 128.6

As stingy as the Alabama defense has been against the run, they have been just as dominating stopping the pass. Over the past 3 seasons, LSU is not too far behind the Crimson Tide. Auburn and Arkansas have struggled in pass-defense, which is the biggest separation between them and the two top teams in the SEC West (Alabama and LSU). Auburn’s recent hiring of Brian VanGorder is a strong indicator Coach Gene Chizik wants to make a statement on defense again.

Turnover Margin (Average national ranking):

LSU: 3rd

Alabama: 13th

Arkansas: 37th

Auburn: 43rd

Alabama and LSU’s ability to run the ball, play great run-defense and win the turnover battle is major key to their success. Both teams have a top-20 average over the past 3 seasons, with LSU having an incredible top-5 average. Turnovers will kill even the best of teams and the teams that take care of the football normally win. From 2000-2011, all the teams that finished in the nation’s top-10 in turnover margin had an average record of 9-3.

Third-down Offense:

Alabama: 43.2%

Auburn: 42.7%

LSU: 40.4%

Arkansas: 39.1%

Even though the Razorbacks have possessed big-play ability in their pass-offense, consistency has been their Achilles heel. Once again, Alabama’s offense has been the most consistent in the SEC over the past 3 years. Auburn is close behind but the majority of their success came during 2009 and 2010.

Third-down Defense:

Alabama: 29.5%

LSU 35.1%

Arkansas: 35.7%

Auburn: 39.4%

Alabama’s success on 3rd down on both sides of the football is one of the reasons why they have accumulated the most wins of any SEC team over the past 3 seasons. Auburn went from converting 53% of their 3rd downs in 2010 to just 36% in 2011. On defense, Auburn went from 17th nationally in 3rd down defense during the 2009 season to 35th in 2010 and 107th in 2011. This is an area Brian VanGorder will need to address for the Auburn defense to improve in 2012.

Coach Gene Chizik wants to maintain the ability to be physical on both sides of the football, which means having a consistent running game and the ability to stop the opponent from doing so. From 2000-2011, SEC teams have won 85 percent of their games, when rushing for at least 200-yards. They also won 85 percent of their games, when holding the opponent to under 120-yards rushing. In games SEC teams rushed for at least 175-yards and held their opponent to under 100-yards rushing, resulted in a win percentage of 92 percent.

Chizik will also want his new offensive coordinator to be able to install an efficient and more sophisticated passing game to go along with Auburn’s rushing attack. Since 2000, SEC teams have won 86 percent of their games with a pass rating of 140 or better. Add in a solid running game (140 rating passing & 150-yards rushing) and SEC teams have won 94 percent of their games. The ability to become balanced on offense clearly is beneficial than becoming too reliant on one facet of the game.

* A comparison of Special Teams will be next.

[cptau 169]

Interesting numbers stat. I'm beginning to really question those 2006 and 2008 Florida BCS championships. Did playing in the SEC east give Florida an easier schedule each year to get them into the SEC championship game and then the BCS? Florida was paired with a west team that had survived Auburn, Arkansas , Alabama and LSU. If Florida had played in the west would they even have survived the regular season schedule. their luck against the sec west ran out in 2009 with UAT in the championship game.

[Justin5 20]

Interesting numbers stat. I'm beginning to really question those 2006 and 2008 Florida BCS championships. Did playing in the SEC east give Florida an easier schedule each year to get them into the SEC championship game and then the BCS? Florida was paired with a west team that had survived Auburn, Arkansas , Alabama and LSU. If Florida had played in the west would they even have survived the regular season schedule. their luck against the sec west ran out in 2009 with UAT in the championship game.

Crazy to look at.

Every year since 1999 Florida has lost to an SEC West school while dominating the SEC East.

99, W 2-2, E 5-0

00, W 3-1, E 5-0

01, W 2-1, E 4-1

02, W 1-2, E 5-0

03, W 2-1, E 4-1

04, W 1-2, E 3-2

05, W 1-2, E 4-1

06, W 3-1, E 5-0

07, W 1-2, E 4-1

08, W 3-1, E 5-0

09, W 3-1, E 5-0

10, W 0-3, E 4-1

11, W 0-3, E 3-1

99-11 West Record: 22-22

99-11 East Record: 56-8

[StatTiger 3,188]

Interesting numbers stat. I'm beginning to really question those 2006 and 2008 Florida BCS championships. Did playing in the SEC east give Florida an easier schedule each year to get them into the SEC championship game and then the BCS? Florida was paired with a west team that had survived Auburn, Arkansas , Alabama and LSU. If Florida had played in the west would they even have survived the regular season schedule. their luck against the sec west ran out in 2009 with UAT in the championship game.

Crazy to look at.

Every year since 1999 Florida has lost to an SEC West school while dominating the SEC East.

99, W 2-2, E 5-0

00, W 3-1, E 5-0

01, W 2-1, E 4-1

02, W 1-2, E 5-0

03, W 2-1, E 4-1

04, W 1-2, E 3-2

05, W 1-2, E 4-1

06, W 3-1, E 5-0

07, W 1-2, E 4-1

08, W 3-1, E 5-0

09, W 3-1, E 5-0

10, W 0-3, E 4-1

11, W 0-3, E 3-1

99-11 West Record: 22-22

99-11 East Record: 56-8

Very interesting data Josh.