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A Heisman hypothetical question

RunInRed

By RunInRed
in AU Football Forum

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AUBURNJAC Veteran

AUBURNJAC 53

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In light of Jay Jacobs recent comments about 'leaving room to grow,' who, if anyone on AU's current roster, has Heisman potential?

Jay Prosch! What a beast! Has anyone nicknamed him yet?

Of course the obvious:

Kiehl Frazier

Corey Grant

Emory Blake even

On Defense, maybe Corey Lemonier? My prediction is he is going to be one of the best D-Lineman in Auburn history!

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McWeagle Veteran

McWeagle 4

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Unfortunately, you pretty much only have to look at 2 positions. The occasional WR,DL or DB might get to NYC, but they almost never win.

As far as potential winners go, I have to say Frazier, Blakely, Grant or Jovon Robinson. Hey, it's a wildly speculative question, so any answer is going to be equally speculative.

As far as players who might steal some votes, I'll add Coates. I would add Blake, but I don't see us putting up video game passing numbers this year, and he's gone after that.

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Duder Founding Father

Duder 238

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We haven't seen enough out of our new weapons to really say. Though, 2013-2014 w/ a seasoned o-line it isn't absurd to think Kiehl or maybe Blakely/Grant.

I don't see us throwing the ball enough for a WR to win it. I'd be shocked if we threw a lot with the running options we have.

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mcgufcm Founding Father

mcgufcm 4,107

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I'd say it remains to be seen how the running back rotation is going to work. Any RB needs the ball a LOT to have a chance at the award. He needs a system that has "The Guy" and one backup, and probably needs work in the passing game to go along with a heavy amount of carries. Just looking at the RBs to win in the last 20 years, Ingram had 271 carries with 32 receptions; Bush had 200 carries and 39 receptions (seems like there would've been more, right?) and returned KOs and punts; Dayne had 303 carries (plus the career rushing record); Williams had 361 carries (yep, you read that right), 24 receptions, plus the career rushing record and a 2000+ yard season; George had 328 carries and 44 receptions; and Salaam had 298 carries and 24 receptions.

Bottom line, unless one of our current backs is going to get the ball at least 300 times OR become the most hyped player on a media darling national champion, none of them are legit Heisman candidates. The only guy on the above list to fall short of one of those two criteria is Ingram, and he's one of the worst statistical winners in the modern era. That was lightening in a bottle (the chance to vote for Bama's first winner!!) and won't repeat itself, which is why Richardson's superior season (Richardson: 283 carries for 1679 yards, 29 receptions for 338 yards, 24 total TDs, with a national title v. Ingram: 271 carries for 1658 yards, 32 receptions for 334 yards, 20 total TDs, with a national title) didn't get him anywhere near the award. Ingram was a fluke. Any RB will have to be much better to win.

With that as background, it seems like we have too many quality backs around the same age. Mason/Grant/Blakley seem fated to share carries. So the only guys I would put anywhere near the award are Frazier and Pike. QBs and RBs are the only positions that matter for the Heisman.

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Mikey Founding Father

Mikey 16,781

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Frazier is the only player we have that put up surreal numbers in high school. He's got to be the most likely among the guys that are already on the team.

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DC4AU04 Rising Star

DC4AU04 21

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I'm all for towing the party line, but I haven't seen anything close to Heisman elite talent from any of these guys. Now, some of that could be due to lack of playing time but I just don't see it. Not a knock on our guys but there is a reason there are only 77 winners. Ever.

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Mikey Founding Father

Mikey 16,781

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I'm all for towing the party line, but I haven't seen anything close to Heisman elite talent from any of these guys. Now, some of that could be due to lack of playing time but I just don't see it. Not a knock on our guys but there is a reason there are only 77 winners. Ever.

You are, of course, 100% correct. The question was a hypothetical which asked for a "best guess" type of answer. My money would be on "none of the above" but what fun is that?

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TigerTaz Experienced

TigerTaz 109

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Read somewhere that a Heisman "expert" labeled Frazier a dark-horse Heisman candidate with the potential to throw for 2,000 and run for 1,000.

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McWeagle Veteran

McWeagle 4

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Read somewhere that a Heisman "expert" labeled Frazier a dark-horse Heisman candidate with the potential to throw for 2,000 and run for 1,000.

Those stats actually seem reasonable to me.

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mcgufcm Founding Father

mcgufcm 4,107

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This year? Color me skeptical. That would be an AMAZING season. Tebow never once put up those numbers.

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McWeagle Veteran

McWeagle 4

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This year? Color me skeptical. That would be an AMAZING season. Tebow never once put up those numbers.

True, but he had 2 years where his passing yards were way over 2000 and his rushing yards were only a bit shy of a 1000, and his combined totals were over 3000 all 3 years he started. In fact, his career averages at UF for passing yards and rushing yards in a season- including the year he didn't start- were 2322 and 737, respectively, or a total of 3059. Take out the year that he didn't start, and you get 2976/826/3802.

Not saying Frazier is in any way comparable to Tebow, but since Tebow nearly shattered that 2000/1000 mark for his career average as a starter, I'd say he's more an example of the fact that it can be done than it can't.

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mcgufcm Founding Father

mcgufcm 4,107

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My point is simple, a QB putting up 1,000 rushing yards is a phenominal total.

Tebow's totals may show that 2000/1000 is possible, but his numbers combined with the low number of occurrences shows it's very, very unlikely. For example, in the last two years, there have been a TOTAL of six QBs that have run for 1,000 yards: Denard Robinson (twice), Chandler Harnish, Collin Klein, Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick. In that group, only Robinson his past season was playing in a non-spread offense (like Frazier). Of those six, Klein did not throw for 2000 yards.

If you drop the rush totals to 900 yards or above, you add five more QBs: Tevin Washington (option QB), James Franklin (spread), Marquies Gray (no idea what offense Indiana runs), Ricky Dobbs (option QB), and Taylor Martinez (spread option sort of). Of those guys, only Franklin topped 2000 yards passing.

Is a 2000/1000 season possible? I guess. There have been five occurrences in the last two years. In a non-spread offense, it seems almost impossible unless your name is Denard Robinson. Short of changing his name to Shoelace Frazier, I don't see how Kiehl is going to hit those numbers. It would take an unbelievable rushing season with a large number of carries and a high volume of plays for the offense. I think the Auburn QB (or QBs) will throw for more than 2000 yards. I don't think there's any way they sniff 1000 yards rushing.

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McWeagle Veteran

McWeagle 4

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My point is simple, a QB putting up 1,000 rushing yards is a phenominal total.

Tebow's totals may show that 2000/1000 is possible, but his numbers combined with the low number of occurrences shows it's very, very unlikely. For example, in the last two years, there have been a TOTAL of six QBs that have run for 1,000 yards: Denard Robinson (twice), Chandler Harnish, Collin Klein, Cam Newton, and Colin Kaepernick. In that group, only Robinson his past season was playing in a non-spread offense (like Frazier). Of those six, Klein did not throw for 2000 yards.

If you drop the rush totals to 900 yards or above, you add five more QBs: Tevin Washington (option QB), James Franklin (spread), Marquies Gray (no idea what offense Indiana runs), Ricky Dobbs (option QB), and Taylor Martinez (spread option sort of). Of those guys, only Franklin topped 2000 yards passing.

Is a 2000/1000 season possible? I guess. There have been five occurrences in the last two years. In a non-spread offense, it seems almost impossible unless your name is Denard Robinson. Short of changing his name to Shoelace Frazier, I don't see how Kiehl is going to hit those numbers. It would take an unbelievable rushing season with a large number of carries and a high volume of plays for the offense. I think the Auburn QB (or QBs) will throw for more than 2000 yards. I don't think there's any way they sniff 1000 yards rushing.

As was mine- Tebow was a misleading example for you to use. Your subsequent talking points, however, much more effectively serve your argument. And I agree, 2000/1000 is unlikely, but I don't think it's a crazy target to hope for.

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mcgufcm Founding Father

mcgufcm 4,107

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Completely agree with that. I would be happy if our running game provide the same production it did last year (2370 yards with 20 TDs). The improvement needs to come from the passing game (where we barely hit 2000 yards passing and had only 17 TDs to 13 INTs).

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