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StatTiger

Statistical Difference between wins and losses

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Gus Malzahn is currently 27-13 as the HFC at Auburn. Here is the performance difference between wins and losses.

First down Production:

  • Victories: 6.96 yards per play on 1st down, while allowing 5.89 yards.
  • Losses: 5.16 yards per play on 1st down, while allowing 6.33 yards.

Scoring:

  • Victories: 39 PPG, while allowing 21 PPG
  • Losses: 24 PPG, while allowing 36 PPG

Passing on 1st down:

  • Victories: 167.6 pass rating
  • Losses: 135.9 pass rating

Passing on 3rd down:

  • Victories: 161.2 pass rating (44.3% conversion rate)
  • Losses: 116.2 rating (31.8% conversion rate)

Third down Percentage:

  • Victories: 51.3% on offense and 37.5% allowed on defense.
  • Losses: 38.7% on offense and 39.3% allowed on defense.

Running Game:

  • Victories: 294 YPG on 5.9 YPC, while allowing 144 YPG on 4.0 YPC
  • Losses: 195 YPG on 4.3 YPC, while allowing 227 YPG on 5.4 YPC

Tackles for Loss & Turnover Battle:

  • Victories: +49 in TFL and +10 in turnovers
  • Losses: -29 in TFL and -6 in turnovers

Three & Out Percentage:

  • Victories: 19.3% on offense and 30.5% on defense
  • Losses: 25.2% on offense and 18.9% on defense

Impact Plays (15-yards or more):

  • Victories: 9.1 per game on offense, while allowing 7.1 per game
  • Losses: 7.4 per game on offense, while allowing 8.5 per game

Red Zone Production (Offense):

  • Victories: 91.9% scoring and 74.8% TD Pct.
  • Losses: 80.4% scoring and 45.7% TD Pct.

Red Zone Production (Defense):

  • Victories: 67.3% scoring and 45.2% TD Pct.
  • Losses: 85.2% scoring and 51.9% TD Pct.

Big Plays (30-yards or more):

  • Victories: 75 on offense and 51 allowed on defense.
  • Losses: 28 on offense and 24 allowed on defense.

War Eagle!

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Very close margins. Shows how close 2013 could have turned mediocre and 2014/2015 could've been spectacular.

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Long numerical story short -- if you do better than the other team, you win.

That's what I got out of those stats. I would wager that any football team matching those stats would statistically tend to win, or lose. That is actually one of my problems with needing a dynamic QB to make CGM's offense potent. Wouldn't the chances of any offense being successful increase with a dynamic QB? In short, if you outperform others, then you win...

Edited by REInvestingTiger

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The thing I got from this is that we outperformed our opponents in wins and losses. When we lose, we average more yards and highers scores than the opponents we beat, and when we win, we average more yards and higher scores than the opponents who beat us. That tells me that, even with last years mess, we are still a force to be reckoned with. Of course, you could also surmise that just by looking at how many games we lose by less than 2 scores.

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Perhaps we could use some flexibility in this offense, because dynamic QB's aren't easy to come by. In this league, you better the willing and able to adjust. I'm not sure I saw a dynamic QB in the SEC last season, but that didn't stop the SEC from winning the top prize in January. :gofig:

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Could someone show me the stats of W vs L when we outscore the opponent?

JUST KIDDING!! Interesting stats. It really does just go to show how slim the margin can be between a great season and a "rebuilding" season.

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Perhaps we could use some flexibility in this offense, because dynamic QB's aren't easy to come by. In this league, you better the willing and able to adjust. I'm not sure I saw a dynamic QB in the SEC last season, but that didn't stop the SEC from winning the top prize in January. :gofig:

That is my point keesler. There are some colleges that are able to perform well enough with a mediocre QB. Unfortunately, AU needs a dynamic dual threat in order to make our offense run. CGM performed okay with Chris Todd and the Arky State QB...dunno what has happened since.

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The thing I got from this is that we outperformed our opponents in wins and losses. When we lose, we average more yards and highers scores than the opponents we beat, and when we win, we average more yards and higher scores than the opponents who beat us. That tells me that, even with last years mess, we are still a force to be reckoned with. Of course, you could also surmise that just by looking at how many games we lose by less than 2 scores.

Ummm, the scores for the last few years don't show AU as that big of a force imho.

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The thing I got from this is that we outperformed our opponents in wins and losses. When we lose, we average more yards and highers scores than the opponents we beat, and when we win, we average more yards and higher scores than the opponents who beat us. That tells me that, even with last years mess, we are still a force to be reckoned with. Of course, you could also surmise that just by looking at how many games we lose by less than 2 scores.

Ummm, the scores for the last few years don't show AU as that big of a force imho.

Ask any one of those teams if they would like to have a rematch. I bet very few would feel confident that they could guarantee a win in a second go around. The truth is, Auburn competes, no matter how beat up we are, we show up and give them a game.

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