IT'S HERE!!! AU student Covid-19 positive.

[ShocksMyBrain 9,364]

1 minute ago, beaumak said:

insightful rebuttal. you are still allowed to listen to anyone you want. the quote should actually be flip flopped on the timing. 😜imagine when they tell us you are no longer allowed to flush your toilets in fear of transmitting the virus through the sewer lines and the sewage plants are inundated with too much crap.

what are you going to do with all that TP? Can't say Toomer's cause sports are not being played.

Bruh the world is shutting down, but keep your head in the sand. I hope you and yours stay healthy. I’m gonna stay away. 

[tgrogan21 6,198]

Just now, ShocksMyBrain said:

Bruh the world is shutting down, but keep your head in the sand. I hope you and yours stay healthy. I’m gonna stay away. 

You can't fix stupid. Despite ALL scientists and medical experts saying this is something to be worried about people would rather listen to a reality show host who is in the White House.

[beaumak 174]

3 minutes ago, fredst said:

You are right. There is no way to make a comparison. Based on the current epidemiology it appears to be more transmissible with greater virulence. The flu always worries me (the bad years, I’ve seen a lot of really sick people even with a vaccine that likely confers at least partial immunity) but this concerns me a good bit more because of the factors I mentioned. I hope that I’m wrong, that all this uproar is all for naught, that the global and US economies recover quickly, and that you and all here remain healthy and happy. War Eagle for social distancing!

appreciate the response but i disagree with your first point about its virulence. nonetheless i'm not necessarily surprised by the hysteria, just still can't fathom the magnitude. and why in today's time we always have to come up with these cheesey sayings, "social distancing". MARKETING

[ShocksMyBrain 9,364]

3 minutes ago, beaumak said:

appreciate the response but i disagree with your first point about its virulence. nonetheless i'm not necessarily surprised by the hysteria, just still can't fathom the magnitude. and why in today's time we always have to come up with these cheesey sayings, "social distancing". MARKETING

I bet you listen to infowars. 

[AUDub 11,147]

I present to you all the living embodiment of the idea that a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.

Lot of armchair epidemiologists out there right now, and this one is no exception.

32 minutes ago, beaumak said:

so let me get this straight. the solution is to buy massive amounts of toilet paper in order to combat this pandemic. sounds like everybody just wants to be butthurt.

A reductio ad absurdum, and a bad one. 

Quote

but back to my original post with true statistics. what i didn't remind and include in my OP to most of you folks, since most seem to disagree, is that the influenza numbers (another reminder that it occurs every single year) managed to reach those high numbers with a vaccine. again reiterate with a vaccine!

A vaccine that is generally pretty hit or miss, depending on the predominant strain (though get vaccinated, for the love of God, as even when infected with the non-predominant strain, still confers benefits to reduce severity). 

Quote

Imagine no vaccine. perfect example would be coronavirus. there is no vaccine, correct? yet numbers are just not there even still. and i am willing to bet the numbers are even exponentially more for true cases gone undiagnosed. same can be said for the flu every year. which upfront would counter my argument. however it would in turn drastically lower the mortality rate.

It's early as s*** on numbers, which are rising exponentially, as predicted. And yeah, mortality rates would be expected to drop, but we're still talking about a lower bound of 500000 to an upper bound of 2000000, depending upon infection rates, should we not act, which is, no matter how you slice it, an extremely ugly number. 

Quote

so which is it. higher mortality rate with less virulency. or lower mortality rate with higher virulency. so far there is no comparison.

and by the way go look at 2018's flu stats. dominates this past year's that i posted. 

You keep comparing it to flu. Please stop. This. Is. A. Different. Beast. 

[beaumak 174]

4 minutes ago, tgrogan21 said:

You can't fix stupid. Despite ALL scientists and medical experts saying this is something to be worried about people would rather listen to a reality show host who is in the White House.

I suppose I can't let myself to take the advice of someone who addresses anyone as "bruh" on a message board. And as far as my head in the sand. Far from it. I'm actually seeking out other viewpoints then drinking CNN's and the rest of them's nonsense as they try to manipulate 20 years olds with 54 years olds for stat manipulation 

[AUDub 11,147]

11 minutes ago, tgrogan21 said:

You can't fix stupid. Despite ALL scientists and medical experts saying this is something to be worried about people would rather listen to a reality show host who is in the White House.

Said reality show host, while I do not like him, has markedly changed tenor on this one. I'm glad for that, and hope he gets it right going forward. 

[beaumak 174]

3 minutes ago, AUDub said:

I present to you all the living embodiment of the idea that a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.

Lot of armchair epidemiologists out there right now, and this one is no exception.

A reductio ad absurdum, and a bad one. 

A vaccine that is generally pretty hit or miss, depending on the predominant strain (though get vaccinated, for the love of God, as even when infected with the non-predominant strain, still confers benefits to reduce severity). 

It's early as s*** on numbers, which are rising exponentially, as predicted. And yeah, mortality rates would be expected to drop, but we're still talking about a lower bound of 500000 to an upper bound of 2000000, depending upon infection rates, should we not act, which is, no matter how you slice it, an extremely ugly number. 

You keep comparing it to flu. Please stop. This. Is. A. Different. Beast. 

well allow me to retort. where do you get your scientific backed numbers on your bounds? 

[tgrogan21 6,198]

Just now, AUDub said:

Said reality show host, while I do not like him, has markedly changed tenor on this one. I'm glad for that, and hope he gets it right going forward. 

Only took him two months. Won't get too political on here but if he would have taken this seriously from the jump, we wouldn't be in the mess we're in.

[beaumak 174]

5 minutes ago, AUDub said:

I present to you all the living embodiment of the idea that a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.

Lot of armchair epidemiologists out there right now, and this one is no exception.

A reductio ad absurdum, and a bad one. 

A vaccine that is generally pretty hit or miss, depending on the predominant strain (though get vaccinated, for the love of God, as even when infected with the non-predominant strain, still confers benefits to reduce severity). 

It's early as s*** on numbers, which are rising exponentially, as predicted. And yeah, mortality rates would be expected to drop, but we're still talking about a lower bound of 500000 to an upper bound of 2000000, depending upon infection rates, should we not act, which is, no matter how you slice it, an extremely ugly number. 

You keep comparing it to flu. Please stop. This. Is. A. Different. Beast. 

its very easy to associate actual exponents to the equation when your baseline is that small. and it already is not doing so. what is the graph like now? seriously curios. at the beginning its naturally going to grow exponentially. but its impossible to sustain that forever. literally and mathematically. its really logarithmic. 

but continue with the exponents thing. what happens if it gets to 8 billion humans. will it go to 8 billion squared??

[AUDub 11,147]

9 minutes ago, beaumak said:

well allow me to retort. where do you get your scientific backed numbers on your bounds? 

That number stems from the estimates of Dr. James Lawler, and his (conservative) estimate is 480000. CDC's numbers range from 200000 to 1700000. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

[tgrogan21 6,198]

20 minutes ago, beaumak said:

I suppose I can't let myself to take the advice of someone who addresses anyone as "bruh" on a message board. And as far as my head in the sand. Far from it. I'm actually seeking out other viewpoints then drinking CNN's and the rest of them's nonsense as they try to manipulate 20 years olds with 54 years olds for stat manipulation 

I don't even watch CNN but good try, bruh! I do however listen to the CDC, WHO, actual doctors that are in the fight, and other MEDICAL EXPERTS! Not n guy on a forum who refuses to see that this is not the same as the flu. The numbers of cases are doubling every day and this is with very limited testing being done. Hospitals in NY are running out of supplies and people are dying.

Disease experts estimate that each COVID-19 sufferer infects between two to 3 others. That's a reproduction rate up to twice as high as seasonal flu, which typically infects 1.3 new people for each patient. Not to mention the fact that most people don't even know they have the virus until they've already infected other people. Before we get into the death rate, most people are mostly worried about limiting the spread of it because if we don't we will NOT have the supplies to treat everyone. Flatten the curve is so that hospitals will have less people flocking to them and overloading the staff, taking all of the beds, and then risking more people contracting the virus while being in the hospital.

 

The flu and the Coronavirus are NOT THE SAME THING!  Even if you THINK you're fine and healthy, you can still get other people sick. If you can, stay at home, and hope that people take this seriously because if not it's only going to get way worse. Experts have already said this over and over again that our hospital system is not built for the number of people who may already be sick but haven't been tested because we don't have enough tests for everyone showing symptoms.

Edit: Forgot to add a tweet that I saw the other day.

 

[ShocksMyBrain 9,364]

2 minutes ago, tgrogan21 said:

I don't even watch CNN but good try, bruh! I do however listen to the CDC, WHO, actual doctors that are in the fight, and other MEDICAL EXPERTS! Not n guy on a forum who refuses to see that this is not the same as the flu. The numbers of cases are doubling every day and this is with very limited testing being done. Hospitals in NY are running out of supplies and people are dying.

Disease experts estimate that each COVID-19 sufferer infects between two to 3 others. That's a reproduction rate up to twice as high as seasonal flu, which typically infects 1.3 new people for each patient. Not to mention the fact that most people don't even know they have the virus until they've already infected other people. Before we get into the death rate, most people are mostly worried about limiting the spread of it because if we don't we will NOT have the supplies to treat everyone. Flatten the curve is so that hospitals will have less people flocking to them and overloading the staff, taking all of the beds, and then risking more people contracting the virus while being in the hospital.

 

The flu and the Coronavirus are NOT THE SAME THING!  Even if you THINK you're fine and healthy, you can still get other people sick. If you can, stay at home, and hope that people take this seriously because if not it's only going to get way worse. Experts have already said this over and over again that our hospital system is not built for the number of people who may already be sick but haven't been tested because we don't have enough tests for everyone showing symptoms.

I can’t believe this s*** still needs to be posted. It’s as redundant as the “I wish we had a real guard” in the basketball game threads. 

[AUDub 11,147]

17 minutes ago, beaumak said:

its very easy to associate actual exponents to the equation when your baseline is that small. and it already is not doing so. what is the graph like now? seriously curios. at the beginning its naturally going to grow exponentially. but its impossible to sustain that forever. literally and mathematically. its really logarithmic. 

but continue with the exponents thing. what happens if it gets to 8 billion humans. will it go to 8 billion squared??

Exponential in the short term. As the amount of infected/immune individuals grows, the rate of infection drops significantly. Growth may be exponential at first, but later on, the rate at which a sick individual infects a healthy individual drops off.

[tgrogan21 6,198]

4 minutes ago, ShocksMyBrain said:

I can’t believe this s*** still needs to be posted. It’s as redundant as the “I wish we had a real guard” in the basketball game threads. 

It's sad and troubling. It's going to be the reason why this thing doesn't get under control. Seeing all of the college kids at the beaches in Florida and Alabama is infuriating to me. They might not get sick enough to die but they'll go back home, spend time with their families, and possibly infect their mother, their grandmother, or someone else that could die from this.

[beaumak 174]

2 minutes ago, ShocksMyBrain said:

I can’t believe this s*** still needs to be posted. It’s as redundant as the “I wish we had a real guard” in the basketball game threads. 

refer to my comment to AUDUB about scaling and analytics. and besides why the necessity to not have the same exact denominations in the side-by-side graph for age range. if its so true than show it. 

furthermore my point is that the right side of your picture will drop across the board. after all said and done. 

 

[ShocksMyBrain 9,364]

Just now, tgrogan21 said:

It's sad and troubling. It's going to be the reason why this thing doesn't get under control. Seeing all of the college kids at the beaches in Florida and Alabama is infuriating to me. They might not get sick enough to die but they'll go back home, spend time with their families, and possibly infect their mother, their grandmother, or someone else that could die from this.

And it’s bound to be spread all around the retirement communities down there. It’s going to be a mess. 

[beaumak 174]

can we agree on this, move this off the football board? see yall tomorrow, maybe...😘

ah damn its 12:30 am central. hope i can last another 23:30

[AUDub 11,147]

12 minutes ago, tgrogan21 said:

It's sad and troubling. It's going to be the reason why this thing doesn't get under control. Seeing all of the college kids at the beaches in Florida and Alabama is infuriating to me. They might not get sick enough to die but they'll go back home, spend time with their families, and possibly infect their mother, their grandmother, or someone else that could die from this.

My kids are going stir-crazy. Really wish there was a school to send them to so I could get them out of my wife's hair. 

I guess I'm lucky, in that I'm still working, though I'm having to go through an annoying screening process at every hospital and dialysis clinic I visit for service calls lol.

[beaumak 174]

31 minutes ago, AUDub said:

Exponential in the short term. As the amount of infected/immune individuals grows, the rate of infection drops significantly. Growth may be exponential at first, but later on, the rate at which a sick individual infects a healthy individual drops off.

so this 

 

 

media and most of yall are doing this

 

red line is people. blue line is virus. black line we all DIE!!!!

Fig. 1. Trajectory of x₁(t) for Example 1.

1. Download : Download high-res image (153KB)

 

 

[AUDub 11,147]

12 minutes ago, beaumak said:

so this 

 

 

media and most of yall are doing this

 

red line is people. blue line is virus. black line we all DIE!!!!

Fig. 1. Trajectory of x₁(t) for Example 1.

1. Download : Download high-res image (153KB)

 

 

As I said, folks, a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.

[TigerTale 357]

Serious question...how long are we going to ask healthy people who live paycheck to paycheck to sit home and not work? People who have limited savings that they will burn through quickly as they pay rent, buy food, etc. without regular income. I don't have a job that pays me to sit home. My wife and I joked that we may loose everything and go hungry but at least we didn't get the virus! We joked, but depending on how long this drags out we won't be laughing for long.

[McLoofus 35,182]

6 hours ago, beaumak said:

can we agree on this, move this off the football board? see yall tomorrow, maybe...😘

ah damn its 12:30 am central. hope i can last another 23:30

By all means, you have my permission to move off this board.

[AUsince72 11,084]

All this expert talk of statistics and reality....

The reality is, if I were invited to a 100 seat theater and told that at some point 3 random seats will explode, killing it's occupants and wounding an untold number directly around those seats (wounds varying in severity) but the rest will probably be okay......

.....I'm streaming a movie online instead.

At the very least I'm not calling those who don't want to chance it "hysterical".

But, I'm not a medical professional.....nor did I stay in a Holiday Express, so I honestly know nothing.

[Quietmaninthecorner 1,945]

8 hours ago, beaumak said:

refer to my comment to AUDUB about scaling and analytics. and besides why the necessity to not have the same exact denominations in the side-by-side graph for age range. if its so true than show it. 

furthermore my point is that the right side of your picture will drop across the board. after all said and done.