The current legacy of Bo Nix

[StatTiger 3,188]

  When Auburn signed Bo Nix, some publications had him listed as a 5-star recruit, setting high expectations for the high school senior. Because Jarrett Stidham elected to forgo his senior year, Nix was thrown into the starting lineup as a true freshman. He would end up facing six teams that would win at least 11 games that year, something no collegiate quarterback has ever faced as a true freshman. During his twenty-four starts as an Auburn Tiger against Power-5 competition, Auburn averaged only 160 yards rushing per game. Of those 24 games, 13 opponents had a winning record, and Auburn averaged just 124 yards rushing per game. His struggles were magnified in these games as he now became the focal point for any offensive success. During the 18 games Auburn rushed for at least 160 yards, Bo Nix was 18-3 as the starter, throwing for 26 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He was not good enough to carry the team when all else around him were struggling.


Bo Nix was placed into a situation of throwing more than 25 passes during 21 of 30 starts. Fifteen of his starts, Nix was forced to attempt at least 30 passes when the running game failed to deliver. The only Auburn QB with more than 15 games of throwing the ball at least 30 times was Stan White (18), who was forced to work through team struggles from 1990-1992. It was not until his senior year that White was surrounded with a good OL, running game, quality receivers, and good defense. He then became part of a great "team effort" that resulted in an 11-0 season. Auburn fans have witnessed this with many Auburn quarterbacks. Jeff Burger and Reggie Slack are fondly remembered because they beat Alabama and Georgia regularly. The truth is that both were surrounded by NFL talent and great defense from 1986-1989. Burger threw three picks against Bama in 1986, and Auburn still won. What do you think would happen to Auburn if Bo Nix threw three interceptions against Alabama this year? From 1986-1989, Auburn had seven games; the Tigers had to attempt more than 25 passes, rushed for under 140 yards, and the defense allowed more than 10 points. The Tigers were 0-5-2 during those seven games with a passer rating of 104.3 while scoring an average of 13.3 points.

From 1990-1995 (Stan White and Patrick Nix), Auburn went 3-6-1 under the same circumstances, scoring an average of 22.2 PPG, with a passer rating of 114.9. During the Jason Campbell era (2001-2004), Auburn was 2-7 during games; the Tigers attempted more than 25 passes and were held to under 140-yards rushing. The Tigers accumulated a passer rating of 107.8 while scoring 10 points per game. Campbell averaged only 16.6 pass attempts during 2002, teamed up with a solid running game and a stout defense. The following year as a junior (2003), Campbell was required to throw the ball at least 26 times on six occasions, where Auburn averaged only 103 yards rushing per game. The Tigers went 1-5 during those six games, averaging 10.6 points per game. During his senior campaign, Campbell was surrounded by a good offensive line, two first-round draft picks at running back, arguably the best WR corps in school history, and the No. 1 defense in college football. Jason Campbell flourished as the No. 2 passer in the nation that year, guiding Auburn to a 13-0 season.

Since 1961, Auburn is 8-70-1 in games the team had to throw more than 25 times, rushed for under 140 yards, and allowed at least 21 points on defense. That equates to once every 9.1 games since 1961. Bo Nix has been placed into that position once every 3.7 games during his 30 starts. Other than Dameyune Craig, no other AU QB has worked through Nix's issues from 2019-2021. At least during the 1997 season, Craig was blessed with a good receiving corps and a solid defense. From 2000-2020, SEC teams won only 16 percent of their games when throwing more than 25 times, rushed for under 140 yards, and allowed at least 21 points on defense. Auburn’s 8-70-1 record should speak volumes about every quarterback that played under those circumstances.

Bo Nix might not be the most talented quarterback to start for the Auburn Tigers and has yet to prove he can consistently carry the team by himself. There are very few collegiate quarterbacks that consistently carried their teams when all else around him failed. The few that have accomplished it were considered an exceptional or once-in-a-lifetime type of player. The truth is that Bo Nix does require a supporting cast to obtain the most of his abilities for no fault of his own. His 18-3 record with at least 160-yards rushing is confirmation that he can deliver with a supporting cast. The sad commentary is that we may never see it happen during his time as the starting quarterback, tainting his legacy as Auburn’s starting quarterback. Even if everything around Nix were operating efficiently, Bo Nix probably would not be one of the top QB's in the country, but I have no doubt he would perform close to what we all hoped he would be.

 

War Eagle!

[McLoofus 35,182]

Or maybe the run game could also use some help from the passing game?

[StatTiger 3,188]

11 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Or maybe the run game could also use some help from the passing game?

It is a run to set up the pass offense but regardless, Auburn has passed the ball nearly 63% in the first half of the last 3 games and that has not worked. Until AU can prove they can consistently run on 6 men in the box, the same issues will continue. You are clearly missing the point of every team in the SEC failing from 2000-2020, when restricted by a lack of a running game. Auburn is no exception.

[McLoofus 35,182]

18 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

It is a run to set up the pass offense but regardless, Auburn has passed the ball nearly 63% in the first half of the last 3 games and that has not worked. Until AU can prove they can consistently run on 6 men in the box, the same issues will continue. You are clearly missing the point of every team in the SEC failing from 2000-2020, when restricted by a lack of a running game. Auburn is no exception.

And you clearly missed me using the word "also". 

The passing game hasn't worked mostly because the passes have been inaccurate or dropped. Make some of those throws and catches and the whole offense works better. 

It's okay to expect adequate play from QB1 in addition to adequate play and schemes from the rest of the program. The constant either/or nature of these posts and conversations is exhausting and frankly a little embarrassing.  

[StatTiger 3,188]

1 minute ago, McLoofus said:

It's okay to expect adequate play from QB1 in addition to adequate play and schemes from the rest of the program.

Yes, it's okay to expect adequate play when all around QB1 is adequate play. Again, the history of Auburn's success during the modern era of college football reveals you cannot expect adequate play from the QB when there is no consistency in the running game. This supported by EVERY team in the SEC from 2000-2020. Not sure why that is so difficult to understand.

No scheming in the world is going to consistently overcome issues on the OL.

[cole256 17,056]

I just can't understand how a quarterback that isn't good at throwing a football is supposed to be a good QB

[McLoofus 35,182]

5 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

Yes, it's okay to expect adequate play when all around QB1 is adequate play. Again, the history of Auburn's success during the modern era of college football reveals you cannot expect adequate play from the QB when there is no consistency in the running game. This supported by EVERY team in the SEC from 2000-2020. Not sure why that is so difficult to understand.

No scheming in the world is going to consistently overcome issues on the OL.

The only thing that's difficult to understand is you saying "The truth is that Bo Nix does require a supporting cast to obtain the most of his abilities for no fault of his own." 

The current legacy of Bo Nix was actually very well described by actual football players who played his position during the game the other day and after on Cole Cubelic's show. He's got bad tendencies that make him a less effective QB. They're things that very good quarterbacks don't do. Don't need a deep dive into 20 years of history to see it. 

Feel free to put all of this into historical context but the "no fault of his own" thing is bizarre. Certainly more bizarre than merely saying that the run game could also use some help from more pass completions. 

 

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 hour ago, StatTiger said:

Since 1961, Auburn is 8-70-1 in games the team had to throw more than 25 times, rushed for under 140 yards, and allowed at least 21 points on defense.

This is such a weird place to draw a line in the sand to make up a stat.  Especially with the following conclusions about Bo and trying to hand waive his results as if it wasn't his fault.

So a team that couldn't run the ball well and gave up 3+ TDs lost game most of the time???  Yeah....

 

[DAG 33,982]

I’ve never seen so much spin for a 5 star QB. Real talent evaluators at the next level will be able to see where he ends up with or without a supporting cast. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

I think the numbers are interesting. I also think your point about his legacy is interesting to think about. Bo probably has more raw talent than Stetson Bennett of UGA, but his cast is better so he performs well. I think that point is an easy one to accept. That being said, the fact that Bo had the hype and the 5 stars (unlike Bennett's walk on status) creates expectations that he can carry a team, or elevate those around him rather than vice versa. It hasn't worked out that way. 

 

Legacy-wise it think it is too early to tell. If the coaches stick with him does he improve or have we seen his ceiling. I personally am in the camp that he is what he is, but I'm certainly routing for any qb we put on the field to succeed and would love to see a redemption story play out the rest of this season. 

(I wonder what the completion percentages of all those other qbs in the games they threw more than 25 times were?)

[W.E.D 11,070]

5 minutes ago, DAG said:

I’ve never seen so much spin for a 5 star QB. Real talent evaluators at the next level will be able to see where he ends up with or without a supporting cast. 

It's also seems weird he's trying to stuff a 2020 era offense & stats into the last 50 years of Auburn football as if offenses haven't evolved.

If everyone is being honest with themselves, Auburn hasn't had a truly elite QB throwing the ball in the last 40 years....especially coupled with a high powered offense.  Jason Campbell might have been the best in 2004.

[WarTim 3,456]

Thanks Stat. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

4 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

Bo probably has more raw talent than Stetson Bennett of UGA, but his cast is better so he performs well. I think that point is an easy one to accept.

If you are saying that we trade QBs this past Saturday and Bo becomes the better QB, then I don't think I do accept that. It's certainly possible but I don't consider it a likelihood. 

6 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

That being said, the fact that Bo had the hype and the 5 stars (unlike Bennett's walk on status) creates expectations that he can carry a team, or elevate those around him rather than vice versa.

Again, can't speak for others but not the case with me. I don't think about what Bo Nix is supposed to be. I only think about whether or not Auburn is getting adequate QB play. I don't think we are, and I think that can only somewhat be explained by other deficiencies in our offense. 

10 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

I personally am in the camp that he is what he is, but I'm certainly routing for any qb we put on the field to succeed and would love to see a redemption story play out the rest of this season. 

Completely agree on all. 

[DAG 33,982]

10 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

It's also seems weird he's trying to stuff a 2020 era offense & stats into the last 50 years of Auburn football as if offenses haven't evolved.

If everyone is being honest with themselves, Auburn hasn't had a truly elite QB throwing the ball in the last 40 years....especially coupled with a high powered offense.  Jason Campbell might have been the best in 2004.

It’s just so weird, because I’ve never seen any of this from our previous QBs dating back to 2013. I remember NM was so under appreciated. In fact his last year quite a few fans were ready for him to go to see JJ. The same thing occurred with SW and JS. Very highly critique but Bo Nix also has endearment because he was not a transfer. The fact is he has a Disney story and he is an Auburn guy due to his family so many more people are willing to give him that around here. That’s the honest truth. 

[aucanucktiger 1,791]

I can see Bo going down in Auburn lore as a Ben Leard. All the potential in the world and QB during some legendary wins, but somewhat of a player with the wrong supporting staff and hit & miss QB coaching at the wrong time. 

Edited October 12, 2021 by aucanucktiger

[W.E.D 11,070]

3 minutes ago, DAG said:

It’s just so weird, because I’ve never seen any of this from our previous QBs dating back to 2013. I remember NM was so under appreciated. In fact his last year quite a few fans were ready for him to go to see JJ. The same thing occurred with SW and JS. Very highly critique but Bo Nix also has endearment because he was not a transfer. The fact is he has a Disney story and he is an Auburn guy due to his family so many more people are willing to give him that around here. That’s the honest truth. 

We really wasted 2014 bc how awful our defense was. That offense was elite.

I think they legacy/5* is probably the biggest issue. If he was a 3* and his name was Bill Random. I don't think he'd get as much slack 

[StatTiger 3,188]

16 minutes ago, DAG said:

I’ve never seen so much spin for a 5 star QB. Real talent evaluators at the next level will be able to see where he ends up with or without a supporting cast. 

No spin... everything I posted is fact. I took the time to compile and post some data that would bring a better perspective on Auburn's current situation. I guess I could have come on here and just said, "Hey, Bo would be better if we could run". Nowhere in my initial post did I state that Bo is not part of the issue. In fact, I ended it with, Bo not being a super star even if all around him was efficient. I have never seen such lack of credibility in response to actual facts. Why even bring up "real" talent evaluator? I did not evaluate his talent level. I evaluated the circumstances of which he has been placed. The discussion is bout NOW and not what happens when he leaves Auburn. I have seen some really good collegiate play by Auburn QB's that did not make any NFL roster.

[cole256 17,056]

7 minutes ago, DAG said:

It’s just so weird, because I’ve never seen any of this from our previous QBs dating back to 2013. I remember NM was so under appreciated. In fact his last year quite a few fans were ready for him to go to see JJ. The same thing occurred with SW and JS. Very highly critique but Bo Nix also has endearment because he was not a transfer. The fact is he has a Disney story and he is an Auburn guy due to his family so many more people are willing to give him that around here. That’s the honest truth. 

That's all I ever said. This board used to rip QB's for so much less.

[StatTiger 3,188]

20 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

It's also seems weird he's trying to stuff a 2020 era offense & stats into the last 50 years of Auburn football as if offenses haven't evolved.

If everyone is being honest with themselves, Auburn hasn't had a truly elite QB throwing the ball in the last 40 years....especially coupled with a high powered offense.  Jason Campbell might have been the best in 2004.

Is the last 5 years current enough for you? From 2016-2020, All SEC teams compiled a 15 percent win percentage when having to throw the ball at least 26 times during a game, with less than 140 yards rushing and the opposition scoring at least 21 points.

[DAG 33,982]

1 minute ago, StatTiger said:

No spin... everything I posted is fact. I took the time to compile and post some data that would bring a better perspective on Auburn's current situation. I guess I could have come on here and just said, "Hey, Bo would be better if we could run". Nowhere in my initial post did I state that Bo is not part of the issue. In fact, I ended it with, Bo not being a super star even if all around him was efficient. I have never seen such lack of credibility in response to actual facts. Why even bring up "real" talent evaluator? I did not evaluate his talent level. I evaluated the circumstances of which he has been placed. The discussion is bout NOW and not what happens when he leaves Auburn. I have seen some really good collegiate play by Auburn QB's that did not make any NFL roster.

Yes you posted stats but stats can be very manipulative as well too. 

[auburnphan 6,050]

Auburn can’t run the ball with Bo Nix because he can’t stretch the field with any consistently.  In games that Bo Nix starts Auburn averages less rushing yards.  Teams load the box against Bo Nix lead offenses because they do not fear his arm or decision making resulting in poor rushing stats.

[cole256 17,056]

1 minute ago, auburnphan said:

Auburn can’t run the ball with Bo Nix because he can’t stretch the field with any consistently.  In games that Bo Nix starts Auburn averages less rushing yards.  Teams load the box against Bo Nix lead offenses because they do not fear his arm or decision making resulting in poor rushing stats.

Bingo

[auburnphan 6,050]

Here is a stat, teams that are losing throw the ball more.

[aucanucktiger 1,791]

3 minutes ago, cole256 said:

That's all I ever said. This board used to rip QB's for so much less.

Depending on the QB, it still does.

[W.E.D 11,070]

2 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

Is the last 5 years current enough for you? From 2016-2020, All SEC teams compiled a 15 percent win percentage when having to throw the ball at least 26 times during a game, with less than 140 yards rushing and the opposition scoring at least 21 points.

It still goes back to my last post, it's a weird bucket to slot ppl into.

Yes, your defense gives up 3+ TDs and you can run well, you're not going to win often