Composites of polls

[DKW 86 7,433]

Link

[AURaptor 1,125]

The numbers that matter most come out after the polls close. Do NOT forget to vote. No matter what the polls are saying now.

Bush/Cheney 2004!

[TexasTiger 12,969]

The numbers that matter most come out after the polls close. Do NOT forget to vote. No matter what the polls are saying now.

Bush/Cheney 2004!

112771[/snapback]

that's right. Alabama is still in doubt.

[TexasTiger 12,969]

The "composite poll" is within the margin of error, but anything can still happen.

But only one pollster called 2000 correctly-- John Zogby. Zogby today:

For the second consecutive day, Bush and Kerry were deadlocked at 45 percent apiece in the three-day tracking poll. About 7 percent of likely voters say they are still undecided between the president and the Massachusetts senator.

"The candidates are still in a statistical dead heat, with Kerry making incremental gains in a steady drip-drip-drip that has eroded the president's lead," said pollster John Zogby. Bush had a four-point lead three days ago.

The number of likely voters who believe Bush deserves to be re-elected dropped from 47 percent to 45 percent over the last four days, with the number of voters who believe it is time for someone new climbing from 48 percent to 51 percent.

http://olympics.reuters.com/newsArticle.jh...storyID=6540135

[BamaGrad03 0]

I really dont put a lot of weight in the polls right now...its too close of a race.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

At this time, in a very close election, who is ahead by 2-3 points in the national vote become secondary to the electorial vote. The few undecided swing staes will decide this election.

[Bottomfeeder 244]

...its too close of a race.

112787[/snapback]

I disagree, because record numbers of people who have either never voted or did not vote in 2000 and are reregistering will result in a landslide victory for Kerry. Landslide unless of coures the coting machine count Dem. to Rep. 1 to 2 respectively. Every two votes for Kerry counts as one vote instead of two. Record numbers are registering should send a signal to the White House to start packing for an extended stay at a federal prison near you.

Voter dissatisfaction indicates it won't be close. Bogus polls mask landslide in the making

[CarolinaTiger 0]

...its too close of a race.

112787[/snapback]

I disagree, because record numbers of people who have either never voted or did not vote in 2000 and are reregistering will result in a landslide victory for Kerry. Landslide unless of coures the coting machine count Dem. to Rep. 1 to 2 respectively. Every two votes for Kerry counts as one vote instead of two. Record numbers are registering should send a signal to the White House to start packing for an extended stay at a federal prison near you.

Voter dissatisfaction indicates it won't be close. Bogus polls mask landslide in the making

113094[/snapback]

i'm slowly beginning to believe much the same...i think the undercurrents are flowing against W, and may end up bushwhacking him on 11/2. i sure hope not, but i'm not convinced the pubs can overcome increased dem turnout and their cheating.

ct

[DKW 86 7,433]

...its too close of a race.

112787[/snapback]

I disagree, because record numbers of people who have either never voted or did not vote in 2000 and are reregistering will result in a landslide victory for Kerry. Landslide unless of coures the coting machine count Dem. to Rep. 1 to 2 respectively. Every two votes for Kerry counts as one vote instead of two. Record numbers are registering should send a signal to the White House to start packing for an extended stay at a federal prison near you.

Voter dissatisfaction indicates it won't be close. Bogus polls mask landslide in the making

113094[/snapback]

Man, that was very insightful there!

I get the Lib spin now! They know W is gonna win and they are setting up a failsafe that the election was stolen from Kerry. Hence, all the lawyers for the Demwits across the country... Makes perfect sense. Cant beat him, so wound him where he will not get anything accomplished for the next four years.

[Bottomfeeder 244]

...its too close of a race.

112787[/snapback]

I disagree, because record numbers of people who have either never voted or did not vote in 2000 and are reregistering will result in a landslide victory for Kerry. Landslide unless of coures the coting machine count Dem. to Rep. 1 to 2 respectively. Every two votes for Kerry counts as one vote instead of two. Record numbers are registering should send a signal to the White House to start packing for an extended stay at a federal prison near you.

Voter dissatisfaction indicates it won't be close. Bogus polls mask landslide in the making

113094[/snapback]

Man, that was very insightful there!

I get the Lib spin now! They know W is gonna win and they are setting up a failsafe that the election was stolen from Kerry. Hence, all the lawyers for the Demwits across the country... Makes perfect sense. Cant beat him, so wound him where he will not get anything accomplished for the next four years.

113197[/snapback]

Would someone please explain to me why it is so important to vote for a Republican pResident. For the life of me, I just can't understand those who make less than $200,000 per year voting for a Neo-conservate dimwit and his greedy fatboy vice-chairman. I just don't undertand. Please enlighten me, because my pet is smarter and speaks better than Dumbya.

[tiger88 934]

I predict the election will be similar to RR's reelection. It was supposed to be close according to the polls, then boom, a landslide. The press was "shocked".

[DKW 86 7,433]

That ignore feature is awesome!

[MDM4AU 336]

Amen, Brother! It ranks just below the TV remote and twist-off beer bottle caps!

[TexasTiger 12,969]

I predict the election will be similar to RR's reelection. It was supposed to be close according to the polls, then boom, a landslide. The press was "shocked".

113328[/snapback]

I hope you're right and think you just might be.

[tiger88 934]

I predict the election will be similar to RR's reelection. It was supposed to be close according to the polls, then boom, a landslide. The press was "shocked".

113328[/snapback]

I hope you're right and think you just might be.

113576[/snapback]

What have you been smoking? I assume you mean a win for kerry when you say you are "hoping". However, in 1984 the incumbent won.

[TexasTiger 12,969]

I predict the election will be similar to RR's reelection. It was supposed to be close according to the polls, then boom, a landslide. The press was "shocked".

113328[/snapback]

I hope you're right and think you just might be.

113576[/snapback]

What have you been smoking? I assume you mean a win for kerry when you say you are "hoping". However, in 1984 the incumbent won.

113583[/snapback]

I missed the "re-election" part. My recollection was that in 1984 after RR's "comeback" in the second debate that the polls swung his way pretty strongly. In 1980 it was real close until the end, and then things broke Reagan's way.

[tiger88 934]

Maybe I'm a little froggy but I thought I remembered all the networks being very surprised by how big reagan won.

[DKW 86 7,433]

IN 1994, the Left/Media wewre shocked at how the Gongrich lead Reps plowed them under.

I believe that Jennings said: "It seems the American people have had themselves a little temper tantrum...."

[TexasTiger 12,969]

Maybe I'm a little froggy but I thought I remembered all the networks being very surprised by how big reagan won.

113604[/snapback]

The electoral margin in 1980 was surprisingly large, although the popular vote was a fraction over 50%. In 1984 Reagan was cruising in the final polls:

There have been four incumbent presidential elections in the past quarter-century. If we take an average of the final surveys conducted by the three major networks and their partners, we find that in three of these the incumbent fell short of or merely matched his final poll number, while exceeding it only once, and then by just a single point (Ronald Reagan). On average, the incumbent comes in half a point below his final poll result.

Year  Incumbent  Final Poll %  Actual Vote %

1996  Clinton    51        49

1992  Bush    37        37

1984  Reagan    58        59

1980  Carter    42        41

The numbers for challengers look quite different. In every case, the challenger(s) -- I include Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996 -- exceed their final poll result by at least 2 points, and the average gain is 4 points. In 1980, Ronald Reagan received 51 percent, fully 6 percentage points above his final poll results.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/10/4/115016/984