Phil Steele: Talent level comparison between Alabama, Auburn 'not a 49-0 difference'

[SCBusPilot 72]

http://www.al.com/au...evel_compa.html

" Auburn is not that far off from competing for an SEC championship, but don't expect it to happen this year, says college football prognosticator Phil Steele.

The key, as always, is winning the Iron Bowl, which Alabama has won three out of the last four years, including a 49-0 victory against Auburn last season.

"The talent level is not a 49-0 difference," Steele said in an interview with AL.com on the eve of SEC Media Days. "Last year was an Auburn team just trying to get out of the season and an Alabama team that wanted to dominate its rival. There's not that big of a gap between the two teams talent wise. I think Auburn can play more competitive this year and once they get to that level of being more competitive in the game, then all of a sudden the recruits get better."

Steele expects the Tigers to reach the Independence Bowl this season and compete in some tough games, but he expects Gus Malzahn's first team will be an underdog in as many as seven games.

His three teams prime for an upset are Ole Miss, Tennessee and Arkansas. Only Ole Miss is a home game for Auburn. He believes all three teams are "bowl caliber squads," and he expects Auburn will be playing with "more confidence" under Malzahn, whose hurry-up, no-huddle offense fits the personnel returning to the Plains.

"Last year I thought the switch from the spread offense to the pro-style attack was disastrous," Steele said of the 2012 offense led by Scot Loeffler.

The defense will also improve from its No. 79 ranking (second-to-last in the SEC) last season, when it allowed 421 yards per game. He expects defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson's unit to finish somewhere near the top 30 nationally with the 17th-best defensive line and a group of defensive backs ranked No. 33.

"He's got good talent to work with this year, so he's going to look like a genius at the end of the year," Steele said.

A few more highlights from Steele, whose preseason magazine is considered to be the most accurate on the market:

-- He projects junior college transfer Nick Marshall to win the Tigers' quarterback job.

-- He believes defensive stats in the SEC will take a hit this season with more and more teams switching to hurry-up offenses (Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Texas A&M). He compared it to the arguments in recent years concerning defenses in the Big 12 and those lauded in the SEC.

"With the hurry-up, spread offense coming to more and more programs you're going to see a little more scoring in SEC games," he said. "What Malzahn does is he just hits you where he aims. He goes and does a tremendous job game planning. I think he sizes up the weaknesses of the opponent and comes out with play-calling that is not predictable and really has great success with it. One of the keys is having the quarterback that can run and pass because that really opens up the playbook and he has the potential this year."

-- When will Auburn compete for the SEC West title again?

"Two to three years," he said. "I think when you look at 2010, Auburn was coming off nine-, five-, eight-win seasons. No one really expected them to be there and then boom some guy named Cam Newton came in and that helped a little bit and they went 14-0 to win the national title. In college football with the 85-scholarship rule, teams can rise quickly. I don't see it this year for Auburn. I can't see them jumping up there and being a contender in the West, but two to three years is clearly a possibility and I think Malzahn is getting the good recruits."

[marshallcotiger 0]

I hope he is right about some and wrong about others but unlike some other write ups I have seen he at least had the sense to do a little research before he wrote it.

[SCBusPilot 72]

I hope he is right about some and wrong about others but unlike some other write ups I have seen he at least had the sense to do a little research before he wrote it.

I thought it was pretty complimentary to us considering some of the other prognostications out there. I personally believe that we will shock at least 1 of the top-4 teams that we play this year (LSU, uat, ATM, or UGA) to end up with an 8-4 record. 7-5 would be acceptable but a bit of a surprise to me, while 9-3 would be the same but somehow infinitely better.

[AUSWEN 0]

It's easy to see why his predictions come true so often. When everyone else just sees 3-9 and assumes that only marginal improvement is possible, he actually looks at the roster and sees the amount of talent we have. He sees the coaching talent as well, and knows a lot about the staff's past. If nothing else I think he sees all the things that we see as fans, and is willing to go out on a limb that we could see a HUGE improvement without it taking 3 years to get there. Basically, he's closer to your typical fan than to your typical media member. Cheers to the prediction, I think we have a good chance of ending up on the high end of it.

[AU7to88 0]

Phil lives and breathes college football numbers. Kinda like our very own Stat Tiger.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,813]

If the talent level from Alabama to Auburn isn't that much

Doesn't that put them ahead of most of the SEC?

:shrug:

[cooltigger21 0]

Phil lives and breathes college football numbers. Kinda like our very own Stat Tiger.

Nobody breathes numbers like stat.

[weagl1 1,789]

I can tell you this based on my 50+ years of watching Auburn football. Historically, when we make a coaching change we normally come back very fast. When we are picked to be great we rarely live up to the pre-season ranking. When we are picked to be bad we usually over-achieve, especially after a coaching change. I look at this roster and what I see is great players at every position except QB. Not only great players but 2 deep with great players at virtually every position. Just because last year's team quit about the mddle of the season due to all the crap going on with the prior coachong staff it has nothing to do with what is going on today except that our guys are extremely motivated and embarassed about what happened. Bottom line, if Gus finds his QB we win 9 or more games. Even if we have to go with the QB play we saw in the Spring game we win at least 7. Count on it!

[AUTiger2012 84]

I actually would love for this prediction to happen. Auburn is a really really good team historically, but we have always been just at the edge of being big contenders for a conference title and national title. But I'd settle for a bowl game this season.

[AUBwins 10,107]

This may be a dumb reason, but I would like the Independence Bowl better if they would make an effort to put the teams' colors on the field. It looks just as cheap as it is. I wish the endzones would have the team name and colors like most do. Even a helmet or logo painted on the field would help. Shreveport is not a very attractive place to be. The city is pretty worn down. I would still take it over no bowl, but I think it would help the appeal of the bowl game if it felt like they were pleased to be hosting the teams they have. The games have been pretty competitive however.

[JMassie11 1,610]

I think we get back to the chik fil a bowl this year and play fsu

[SCBusPilot 72]

I think we get back to the chik fil a bowl this year and play fsu

The Chick Fil A bowl is what I'm thinking too, and FSU is a likely candidate. Virginia Tech would be another - I sure would like to play Loeffler's O against Gus'!

Of course, with Loeffler, I don't see VT getting to the CFAB.

[WarEagle10 77]

I can tell you this based on my 50+ years of watching Auburn football. Historically, when we make a coaching change we normally come back very fast. When we are picked to be great we rarely live up to the pre-season ranking. When we are picked to be bad we usually over-achieve, especially after a coaching change. I look at this roster and what I see is great players at every position except QB. Not only great players but 2 deep with great players at virtually every position. Just because last year's team quit about the mddle of the season due to all the crap going on with the prior coachong staff it has nothing to do with what is going on today except that our guys are extremely motivated and embarassed about what happened. Bottom line, if Gus finds his QB we win 9 or more games. Even if we have to go with the QB play we saw in the Spring game we win at least 7. Count on it!

I agree. We have talent, it just needs to be coached up. I believe this staff can do that. Before last season a national writer said we would be "sneaky good last season and scary good this season". Well last year was a cluster mess. I don't see us contending for the West, but I don't see us fighting to get into a bowl game either.

[TheBlueVue 177]

Phil Steele has a good reputation and his opinions have historically been above average accuracy wise. The only positions I see that bama has a dramatic advantage in the talent category is QB and LB and possibly RB. TJ Yeldon is pretty dadgum good.

[AU_Tiger_88 417]

Phil Steele has a good reputation and his opinions have historically been above average accuracy wise. The only positions I see that bama has a dramatic advantage in the talent category is QB and LB and possibly RB. TJ Yeldon is pretty dadgum good.

I will agree at LB but as for the QB & RB....hmmm...for me their line deserves much of the credit. I think their QB hasn't had to win the game for them but manage it down the field and not make mistakes. Their RBs have benefited from the line play which has been outstanding. The big uglies don't get as much credit as they deserve in football (IMO). They have had outstanding line play over the past few years and that helps the skill players make plays....I would prefer Mason over Yeldon but that is my opinion.

[AUSWEN 0]

Phil Steele has a good reputation and his opinions have historically been above average accuracy wise. The only positions I see that bama has a dramatic advantage in the talent category is QB and LB and possibly RB. TJ Yeldon is pretty dadgum good.

Yeah LB and RB for sure. Especially if we're basing it on perceived talent out of high school . It seems like they have gotten a 5* at those two positions every year since Saban got there. Our RB's have out-performed their high school rankings I think, but we are getting beaten right now when it comes to recruiting blue chip talent. I think that NM shows up this season and the QB difference suddenly looks a lot more even. Plus, depth wise they are pretty terrible behind spanky. I would also put their WR core above ours by a long shot when it comes to proven talent, though we have a lot of potential. All that said, it only takes a class or two for the pendulum to swing in the other direction.

[AUSWEN 0]

Phil Steele has a good reputation and his opinions have historically been above average accuracy wise. The only positions I see that bama has a dramatic advantage in the talent category is QB and LB and possibly RB. TJ Yeldon is pretty dadgum good.

I will agree at LB but as for the QB & RB....hmmm...for me their line deserves much of the credit. I think their QB hasn't had to win the game for them but manage it down the field and not make mistakes. Their RBs have benefited from the line play which has been outstanding. The big uglies don't get as much credit as they deserve in football (IMO). They have had outstanding line play over the past few years and that helps the skill players make plays....I would prefer Mason over Yeldon but that is my opinion.

I love me some Mason, but imo Benedict Arnold is Heisman material. He could end up being the healthy version of Marcus Lattimore.

[AU_Tiger_88 417]

Phil Steele has a good reputation and his opinions have historically been above average accuracy wise. The only positions I see that bama has a dramatic advantage in the talent category is QB and LB and possibly RB. TJ Yeldon is pretty dadgum good.

I will agree at LB but as for the QB & RB....hmmm...for me their line deserves much of the credit. I think their QB hasn't had to win the game for them but manage it down the field and not make mistakes. Their RBs have benefited from the line play which has been outstanding. The big uglies don't get as much credit as they deserve in football (IMO). They have had outstanding line play over the past few years and that helps the skill players make plays....I would prefer Mason over Yeldon but that is my opinion.

I love me some Mason, but imo Benedict Arnold is Heisman material. He could end up being the healthy version of Marcus Lattimore.

debatible...if we were to truly compare I would throw Lache in there also. I think it is hard to compare due to the difference in line play & defense play. We shall see what happens this year.

[TheBlueVue 177]

Phil Steele has a good reputation and his opinions have historically been above average accuracy wise. The only positions I see that bama has a dramatic advantage in the talent category is QB and LB and possibly RB. TJ Yeldon is pretty dadgum good.

Yeah LB and RB for sure. Especially if we're basing it on perceived talent out of high school . It seems like they have gotten a 5* at those two positions every year since Saban got there. Our RB's have out-performed their high school rankings I think, but we are getting beaten right now when it comes to recruiting blue chip talent. I think that NM shows up this season and the QB difference suddenly looks a lot more even. Plus, depth wise they are pretty terrible behind spanky. I would also put their WR core above ours by a long shot when it comes to proven talent, though we have a lot of potential. All that said, it only takes a class or two for the pendulum to swing in the other direction.

Good catch on WRs and I think you're right

[SCBusPilot 72]

Phil Steele has a good reputation and his opinions have historically been above average accuracy wise. The only positions I see that bama has a dramatic advantage in the talent category is QB and LB and possibly RB. TJ Yeldon is pretty dadgum good.

I will agree at LB but as for the QB & RB....hmmm...for me their line deserves much of the credit. I think their QB hasn't had to win the game for them but manage it down the field and not make mistakes. Their RBs have benefited from the line play which has been outstanding. The big uglies don't get as much credit as they deserve in football (IMO). They have had outstanding line play over the past few years and that helps the skill players make plays....I would prefer Mason over Yeldon but that is my opinion.

I love me some Mason, but imo Benedict Arnold is Heisman material. He could end up being the healthy version of Marcus Lattimore.

debatible...if we were to truly compare I would throw Lache in there also. I think it is hard to compare due to the difference in line play & defense play. We shall see what happens this year.

Mason getting to 1,000 yards with no bowl game to pad the stats and behind the terrible OL play that we had last year should not be underestimated, even if a lot of those yards were against inferior teams. With good OL play this year, Gus' O, and CAP to give him some breathers, he could have a special year indeed.

I'm also interested to see how Yeldon handles the loss of a large part of bama's success the last few years (to the NFL 1st round at that). Those types of players are not easily nor quickly replaced. We shall see.

[cooltigger21 0]

Phil Steele has a good reputation and his opinions have historically been above average accuracy wise. The only positions I see that bama has a dramatic advantage in the talent category is QB and LB and possibly RB. TJ Yeldon is pretty dadgum good.

I will agree at LB but as for the QB & RB....hmmm...for me their line deserves much of the credit. I think their QB hasn't had to win the game for them but manage it down the field and not make mistakes. Their RBs have benefited from the line play which has been outstanding. The big uglies don't get as much credit as they deserve in football (IMO). They have had outstanding line play over the past few years and that helps the skill players make plays....I would prefer Mason over Yeldon but that is my opinion.

I love me some Mason, but imo Benedict Arnold is Heisman material. He could end up being the healthy version of Marcus Lattimore.

He's good but We are fine in the backfield. With C.A.P. and a coach that knows how to use the skill players we have we are as good as anyone I think.

[AuburnNTexas 7,197]

A man who researches before he writes is a rare commodity. I believe we do have a lot of very good players that would compete for starting jobs anywhere. I agree we need a QB to take the reins and run this team. Does not have to be a superstar but must be able to read D, make quick decisions and execute. Stan White was not a great talent but put up great numbers. He could read D's and make good decisions and then execute the correct play.

When Stan White showed up we had a line that was still young but had been together for a while just like this years line, we had a sold RB this year I think we have more than a solid RB and more than one.

We had a decent defense but by no means a great Defense. Defense will be the key from a Talent perspective we should be better than decent maybe even real darn good all the way to great. I am holding judgement on defense I need to see if the new coaches have got the players to play up to their potential and have taught them how to tackle.

I keep hearing how hard everybody has worked to be ready for this year but if you reveiew last year prior to the fall I also heard about what a great offseason they had and how much stronger and more prepared they were. Like most I thought we would be near the top of the SEC. I still think that but want to see a couple of games before i fully commit as to how good the team will be.

That said I am fully committed to supporting them and believing in Auburn no matter what as we always seems to come back from bad with great and I hope to see that happen again.

[war eagle6 0]

Phil Steele has a good reputation and his opinions have historically been above average accuracy wise. The only positions I see that bama has a dramatic advantage in the talent category is QB and LB and possibly RB. TJ Yeldon is pretty dadgum good.

LB yes, RB and QB no! Who cant hand the ball off and throw to wide open receivers? Hes overrated!!

[AUSWEN 0]

Phil Steele has a good reputation and his opinions have historically been above average accuracy wise. The only positions I see that bama has a dramatic advantage in the talent category is QB and LB and possibly RB. TJ Yeldon is pretty dadgum good.

LB yes, RB and QB no! Who cant hand the ball off and throw to wide open receivers? Hes overrated!!

Our QB's, that's who.

[vt_johnp 0]

I think we get back to the chik fil a bowl this year and play fsu

The Chick Fil A bowl is what I'm thinking too, and FSU is a likely candidate. Virginia Tech would be another - I sure would like to play Loeffler's O against Gus'!

Of course, with Loeffler, I don't see VT getting to the CFAB.

I too would love a VT Auburn matchup. If we lost though my friends would talk smack for ages though.