Sharing Analysis Article on CGM's Offense

[REInvestingTiger 2]

Sharing an article series I ran across regarding Gus Malzahn’s Offense. Guy is a Bammer but uses statistics to back up some of what he says. Article also includes a link to Football Outsiders (a statistical look at football, which is cool to review).

In a nutshell, CGM’s offense is 60%+ run with efficient passing. Other interesting stats.

Gus Malzahn and Nightmare Fuel: Part 1,

Malzahn and Nightmare Fuel: Part Two,

Malzahn and Nightmare Fuel: Part Three

[cooltigger21 0]

We have always known this. Gus himself has said what his offense is and what he wants to do. It mostly comes down to the pace that he runs. He gets the ball in the hands of playmakers in space and let's them use their athletic ability to do the rest. He is very astute at seeing what the defense is doing and exploiting the weak spot.

[SummerTiger 0]

It is actually a pretty good read. The two best articles on Malzahn's offense that I have read this season have come from the writers of opposing teams (WSU and UA). For me, this article reinforces the huge mistake that Chizik made of pairing a bend but don't break defense with a feast or famine, quick strike offense. He chose his obsolete defense as the pillar to build around by changing to the pro set, but he was missing the key component for the ground and pound, physicality. I think that Russel has the D in shape to be on the field a while. Hopefully Ellis Johnson's plan involves taking some risk.

[REInvestingTiger 2]

It is actually a pretty good read. The two best articles on Malzahn's offense that I have read this season have come from the writers of opposing teams (WSU and UA). For me, this article reinforces the huge mistake that Chizik made of pairing a bend but don't break defense with a feast or famine, quick strike offense. He chose his obsolete defense as the pillar to build around by changing to the pro set, but he was missing the key component for the ground and pound, physicality. I think that Russel has the D in shape to be on the field a while. Hopefully Ellis Johnson's plan involves taking some risk.

I agree. Our D should be in much better shape to withstand a few 3 and outs.

[GoBull367 0]

One thing he didn't use in his data was how the teams played BEFORE Gus got there. He mentions Gus had returning players, but for all I know, Tulsa's offense was as terrible as the '08 Auburn offense before he got there. As we all know, Aplin's stats at QB were worse with Freeze's O than with Gus'.

He also forgot to mention the fact that he had two head coaches in his career have a total power struggle with him, all the while not being able to completely recruit top level talent for multiple years. Yeah, he was at Auburn for three, but c'mon. Chizik meddled EVERYWHERE. Even if he did let Gus recruit his own players, the fact that he slowed down the HUNH weakened his offense greatly.

In my opinion, the best years to look at are Tulsa and Arkansas St. Other than that it's just wait and see for the next 5 years of Gus' offense.

[TexasTiger 13,118]

Sharing an article series I ran across regarding Gus Malzahn’s Offense. Guy is a Bammer but uses statistics to back up some of what he says. Article also includes a link to Football Outsiders (a statistical look at football, which is cool to review).

In a nutshell, CGM’s offense is 60%+ run with efficient passing. Other interesting stats.

Gus Malzahn and Nightmare Fuel: Part 1,

Malzahn and Nightmare Fuel: Part Two,

Malzahn and Nightmare Fuel: Part Three

That rag needs an editor.

[stoic-one 1,552]

Sharing an article series I ran across regarding Gus Malzahn’s Offense. Guy is a Bammer but uses statistics to back up some of what he says. Article also includes a link to Football Outsiders (a statistical look at football, which is cool to review).

In a nutshell, CGM’s offense is 60%+ run with efficient passing. Other interesting stats.

Gus Malzahn and Nightmare Fuel: Part 1,

Malzahn and Nightmare Fuel: Part Two,

Malzahn and Nightmare Fuel: Part Three

That rag needs an editor.

Volunteering?

[WarEagle1983 2,185]

It was certainly written better than what the douchebag over at the Gritt Tree wrote about Gus and NM.

[douggwilliams 61]

The point they are missing is the mix up and the speed. CGM can mix it anyway and throw something else in as their fat DL huffs and puffs. It is great to break it down on paper, do it live, that is a different animal. Ask Saban, he is scared to death of it. And is becoming a political figure against it.

[TexasTiger 13,118]

Sharing an article series I ran across regarding Gus Malzahn’s Offense. Guy is a Bammer but uses statistics to back up some of what he says. Article also includes a link to Football Outsiders (a statistical look at football, which is cool to review).

In a nutshell, CGM’s offense is 60%+ run with efficient passing. Other interesting stats.

Gus Malzahn and Nightmare Fuel: Part 1,

Malzahn and Nightmare Fuel: Part Two,

Malzahn and Nightmare Fuel: Part Three

That rag needs an editor.

Volunteering?

I don't even want people knowing I read it.

[GoBull367 0]

Sharing an article series I ran across regarding Gus Malzahn's Offense. Guy is a Bammer but uses statistics to back up some of what he says. Article also includes a link to Football Outsiders (a statistical look at football, which is cool to review).

In a nutshell, CGM's offense is 60%+ run with efficient passing. Other interesting stats.

Gus Malzahn and Nightmare Fuel: Part 1,

Malzahn and Nightmare Fuel: Part Two,

Malzahn and Nightmare Fuel: Part Three

That rag needs an editor.

Volunteering?

I don't even want people knowing I read it.

[REInvestingTiger 2]

The point they are missing is the mix up and the speed. CGM can mix it anyway and throw something else in as their fat DL huffs and puffs. It is great to break it down on paper, do it live, that is a different animal. Ask Saban, he is scared to death of it. And is becoming a political figure against it.

The mix up and the speed are actually included in the analysis. It comes out in how many yards are gained, how many first downs, how many points are scored, etc.

[AU Tytrocious 24]

I can agree that the offense is more of a feast or famine offense as he describes it, but he goes on to say that it basically comes down to having quality players at the playmaker positions (QB, RB).

I don't think Auburn will ever be slim on running backs and I think that there are enough very talented QBs out there that at least ONE of them would want to play in the SEC at Auburn. I don't think we'll have problems making plays this year or any other year Gus is our head coach.

[AU Counsel 64]

The troubling part of the analysis seems to be the first down trends...and the net conclusion seems to be that the offense works well when you have great players who can assist in generating explosive plays.

I think we have the personnel this year to be very effective.

[AU! 0]

This is a great analysis and actually relatively well balanced compared to what we've seen in the past. I'm really glad that he brought up the returning starters on O-line as a factor, probably the most underrated group from the 2010 team. He did fail to mention WHY we had so many explosive plays in 2010 and it wasn't just because Cam Newton was so good. The receivers in 2010 were masters of downfield blocking. So any time Cam broke into the secondary or McCalebb hit the corner on a sweep, they regularly had a 5 yard buffer to play with. Combined with the ability to read a field during the run, this resulted in big yards often. So I'm really hoping to see that in this group of guys as well.

And, as someone pointed out earlier, Chizik was most certainly messing with Gus' offensive speed in 2011, although I don't think he did much of that in 2009 or 2010. What we should look forward to is 4 returning starters on O line this year, that will be the key that gets us to a bowl game.

If we want to stay successful year after year, we'll have continuously load up the line and CEJ will have to instill a strong shut-down defense. Ted Roof never wanted to give up the big play and only ended up giving up a whole plethora of small plays that resulted in scoring anyway. With Gus' offense, I'd rather the defense take bigger risks to cause 3&outs, occaisionally giving up the big 30+ yard plays, than play the bend but don't break and spend the whole damn game on the field. Even if we do give up the big play, the defense will stay better rested late in the game.

[Guest WarEagleSteve]

While the article seems fairly well researched and competently written, I don't think there is enough meaningful statistical data on Malzahn's offense to really back up the conclusions he is trying to make. Malzahn has seven years as a collegiate coordinator/head coach and I'd say at least two of them can be written off as not particularly useful for statistical analysis (2011 Auburn, 2006 Arky). So what you're left with is five years of meaningful data spread over stints at three different schools. To me, that immediately invalidates his first theory/implication (that Malzahn relies on veteran players and cannot develop his own). He (Malzahn that is) hasn't been at any one school for long enough to prove/disprove that particular notion. The second theory is patently false. Malzahn has produced three top-10 offenses (both years at Tulsa and 2010 Auburn) in 7 years (5 if you discount the two outlier years at Arky and Auburn). The author's third "hypothesis" that Malzahn has a propensity to rely heavily on the run game is a "well, duh" to everyone who has watched the man coach for the past four years. Bottom line, the article has a nice breakdown of Malzahn's scheme followed by 5 or so pages of woefully inaccurate "theorizing" based on painfully transparent manipulation of statistics.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

[wareaglexx 34]

Wonder what STAT himself thinks about the info in the articles? Seems to me the writer just made some logical conclusions.. Every coach relies on experienced players. How- well CGM can develop players is known just looking at where he has been and the turn around of poor performing QBs... Track-record speaks for itself..

[BigWhiskey91 632]

Another point for me would be the quarterbacks Gus has had to work with. Like others have mentioned, Gus was able to make Aplin more efficient just like he helped turn Todd into a record setting QB in 2009. Time will tell what Gus can do at Auburn. Just keep this article pinned to your wall and we can all laugh at the end of the season.

[war eagle6 0]

While the article seems fairly well researched and competently written, I don't think there is enough meaningful statistical data on Malzahn's offense to really back up the conclusions he is trying to make. Malzahn has seven years as a collegiate coordinator/head coach and I'd say at least two of them can be written off as not particularly useful for statistical analysis (2011 Auburn, 2006 Arky). So what you're left with is five years of meaningful data spread over stints at three different schools. To me, that immediately invalidates his first theory/implication (that Malzahn relies on veteran players and cannot develop his own). He (Malzahn that is) hasn't been at any one school for long enough to prove/disprove that particular notion. The second theory is patently false. Malzahn has produced three top-10 offenses (both years at Tulsa and 2010 Auburn) in 7 years (5 if you discount the two outlier years at Arky and Auburn). The author's third "hypothesis" that Malzahn has a propensity to rely heavily on the run game is a "well, duh" to everyone who has watched the man coach for the past four years. Bottom line, the article has a nice breakdown of Malzahn's scheme followed by 5 or so pages of woefully inaccurate "theorizing" based on painfully transparent manipulation of statistics.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

Thats what I took from it as well, and he acted like it was a simple offense to defend! I couldn't get past the first page because he seemed so arrogant like he knew how to stop it!!we'll see how simple it is when satan comes to AU!!

[johnjacob 44]

This is a great analysis and actually relatively well balanced compared to what we've seen in the past. I'm really glad that he brought up the returning starters on O-line as a factor, probably the most underrated group from the 2010 team. He did fail to mention WHY we had so many explosive plays in 2010 and it wasn't just because Cam Newton was so good. The receivers in 2010 were masters of downfield blocking. So any time Cam broke into the secondary or McCalebb hit the corner on a sweep, they regularly had a 5 yard buffer to play with. Combined with the ability to read a field during the run, this resulted in big yards often. So I'm really hoping to see that in this group of guys as well.

And, as someone pointed out earlier, Chizik was most certainly messing with Gus' offensive speed in 2011, although I don't think he did much of that in 2009 or 2010. What we should look forward to is 4 returning starters on O line this year, that will be the key that gets us to a bowl game.

If we want to stay successful year after year, we'll have continuously load up the line and CEJ will have to instill a strong shut-down defense. Ted Roof never wanted to give up the big play and only ended up giving up a whole plethora of small plays that resulted in scoring anyway. With Gus' offense, I'd rather the defense take bigger risks to cause 3&outs, occaisionally giving up the big 30+ yard plays, than play the bend but don't break and spend the whole damn game on the field. Even if we do give up the big play, the defense will stay better rested late in the game.

I don't know if you can put that on Roof, Bend-don't break ball was Chizik. Roof had deployed a very aggressive D style prior to coming to AU. We also had depth issues on D during Roofs time.

[lca408 366]

He seemed to discount 2009 as an average year for Auburn on offense and shows that as "proof" that the offense only works with elite talent at QB. He might have forgotten just how bad Auburn was the previous year and in all honesty, how the offense regressed since 2005. Things were quite boring on offense in 2006 and 2007 and then just downright awful in 2008. Malzahn managed a huge turnaround in 2009 getting Auburn to the #4 ranked offense in the SEC and having Chris Todd break Pat Sullivan's TD record. Not to mention, Auburn scoring 21 and gaining more rushing yards than any other opponent on Alabama's vaunted 2009 defense which was supposed to be "best of all time." I'd say that Auburn was pretty d@mmed impressive on offense in 2009 considering where they came from and what they had to work with on offense.

[AUSWEN 0]

The basis of his article is that Gus's offense is inconsistent, without enough big plays, and that it has to have good players to be successful. So, 1. he can suck it for beginning his premise with the mindset of proving that Gus isn't as good as everyone thinks, and 2. I'll be just fine if Gus keeps doing what he's been doing. All the stats that I've seen say that it works. Not to mention that any offense, scratch that, any TEAM is going to struggle when they are super young and/or don't have good talent at the skill positions. So, congrats on discovering the obvious and using it to try and disprove the value of someone that is regarded by everyone involved as a leader in his field. I did enjoy the analysis of the playbook though.

[cooltigger21 0]

The troubling part of the analysis seems to be the first down trends...and the net conclusion seems to be that the offense works well when you have great players who can assist in generating explosive plays.

I think we have the personnel this year to be very effective.

The offense has always worked well. It doesn't require a Cam Newton to be successful. Gus can adapt to what he has on hand and make it work. Now with NM or JJ he has someone who, while not the freak Cam is, can be effective throwing and running.

[AU Counsel 64]

The troubling part of the analysis seems to be the first down trends...and the net conclusion seems to be that the offense works well when you have great players who can assist in generating explosive plays.

I think we have the personnel this year to be very effective.

The offense has always worked well. It doesn't require a Cam Newton to be successful. Gus can adapt to what he has on hand and make it work. Now with NM or JJ he has someone who, while not the freak Cam is, can be effective throwing and running.

Kentucky, 2009. It doesn't always work well. Sometimes it seemed Gus would outthink himself, but again, it might have been Chizik. Certainly Gus isn't infallible. But I'm excited to see this season how we'll be with a QB with a powerful arm who can run...assuming Marshall (or Johnson) can make better progressions and be less turnover prone than our QBs last year.

[VAtiger12 112]

The troubling part of the analysis seems to be the first down trends...and the net conclusion seems to be that the offense works well when you have great players who can assist in generating explosive plays.

I think we have the personnel this year to be very effective.

The offense has always worked well. It doesn't require a Cam Newton to be successful. Gus can adapt to what he has on hand and make it work. Now with NM or JJ he has someone who, while not the freak Cam is, can be effective throwing and running.

Kentucky, 2009. It doesn't always work well. Sometimes it seemed Gus would outthink himself, but again, it might have been Chizik. Certainly Gus isn't infallible. But I'm excited to see this season how we'll be with a QB with a powerful arm who can run...assuming Marshall (or Johnson) can make better progressions and be less turnover prone than our QBs last year.

No one is infallible and we would be crazy to think that our now HC then OC is not always going to be in a learning mode as every coach is (or any good coach anyway) but to counter 'Kentucky 2009' .. it has since been widely indicated that Chris Todd's shoulder was seriously unable to compete long passes during that stretch, and being one of the colder nights in recent Auburn football. Being a student at the time, in the stands, and freezing my butt off, I can remember at least 3 times that night when he had Fannin, Adams, and Zachery, on deep throws throughout the game and he either missed them or wasn't confident in throwing it that far. Not to say that this doesn't still fall back on the ability of the offense but every offense requires a quarterback to hit open receivers when he has them. It would also have likely changed the game considerably if a few deep throws, completed or not, had been made as likely it would have softened the defense up just a bit.

My 2 cents on 'Kentucky 2009' anyway. The more concerning issue for me is Gus' offense against LSU. Outside of 2010, we have been completely obliterated by their defense.