Jeff Sagarin

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

Isn't Sagarin a bama grad? I remember reading where he has some tie to bama but don't remember for sure if he is a grad.

[SKCAUB 0]

Here's mine:

JEff

> I'm sorry...but there is something drasticly wrong with your poll. There

> are so many examples of misplaced support for teams, I don't know where

> to start...Harvard would be a good place. But I'll tell you up front

> that I'm an Auburn fan. And I can't see how in the world we could be 6th

> in anybody's poll!

> Look, I've heard all of the arguments about our out of conference

> schedule...and frankly, after looking at the teams USC and OU

> played...even those don't hold water. But here's the thing that's being

> overlooked the most. Auburn has beaten THREE TOP TEN TEAMS (when they

> played)!!! OU and USC have beaten, I believe, TWO, between them. And

> please don't give me the LSU was overrated...then UT was

> overrated...then UGA was os overrated. How come everyone is overrated

> after WE BEAT THEM!!!???

> Why isn't Cal overrated, after USC beat them...and Texas ( who barely

> beat ARKANSAS????) after OU beat them, etc, etc, etc!????

> There are serious flaws in your poll Jeff...and it's unfair to everybody

> for you NOT to fix it. Harvard??? How many teams below them could they

> actually beat???!!! Ridiculous.

> Thanks,

> Steven Chappelle

> Atlanta, GA

His response:

I believe MAINE, a I-AA team defeated MISSISSIPPI STATE,

a I-A team in the mighty SEC(!) on the HOME FIELD of

MISSISSIPPI STATE. Just because you state your conclusion

as if the act of stating is a proof doesn't make it a valid

proof. And MAINE didn't even make the I-AA playoffs.

And on that same field, MISSISSIPPI STATE defeated

FLORIDA, and FLORIDA defeated mighty GEORGIA.

And anyway, the BCS uses my "ELO-CHESS" which IGNORES the

scores and that's the one in RED color that has Auburn #3.

My response to his...well you know:

Jeff,

> Thanks for answering. And you know as well as I that the Maine loss was

> a fluke. You don't scincerely believe that a Harvard could complete in

> the Big 12 or Pac 10, do you? Yours is the same argument that had people

> thinking that Ed Marinaro should've won the Heisman over Pat Sullivan. :-)

His response...again:

A computer system wouldn't be a system if people could

simply omit those results which they defined to be "flukes".

Perhaps in the future, teams like MAINE should simply

"mail in" their defeat and accept a "loss" of say 58-0

from a team in the mighty SEC. It would sort of be

liking mailing in one's resignation in a game of

postal chess. Given your reasoning, it's surprising

that MAINE even risked the travel costs to show up and

play when the faced certain and total defeat at the

hands of the mighty SEC.

My response:

I hear ya, Jeff. But be realistic...William and Mary, the 50th best D-1 team in the country?! And look at the teams behind Harvard. Do you really think they could "consistently" beat, say, Arkansas??? Something is not right. I'm in the computer business myself...IT to be exact...and we have a saying...and this is not a flame...but the saying is, "garbage in, garbage out". A computer that spits out Harvard as the 36th best team in the country has something wrong on the "IN" side.... :-)

AND I'm spent!!!

[rickyd 0]

Here's mine:

JEff

> I'm sorry...but there is something drasticly wrong with your poll. There

> are so many examples of misplaced support for teams, I don't know where

> to start...Harvard would be a good place. But I'll tell you up front

> that I'm an Auburn fan. And I can't see how in the world we could be 6th

> in anybody's poll!

> Look, I've heard all of the arguments about our out of conference

> schedule...and frankly, after looking at the teams USC and OU

> played...even those don't hold water. But here's the thing that's being

> overlooked the most. Auburn has beaten THREE TOP TEN TEAMS (when they

> played)!!! OU and USC have beaten, I believe, TWO, between them. And

> please don't give me the LSU was overrated...then UT was

> overrated...then UGA was os overrated. How come everyone is overrated

> after WE BEAT THEM!!!???

> Why isn't Cal overrated, after USC beat them...and Texas ( who barely

> beat ARKANSAS????) after OU beat them, etc, etc, etc!????

> There are serious flaws in your poll Jeff...and it's unfair to everybody

> for you NOT to fix it. Harvard??? How many teams below them could they

> actually beat???!!! Ridiculous.

> Thanks,

> Steven Chappelle

> Atlanta, GA

His response:

I believe MAINE, a I-AA team defeated MISSISSIPPI STATE,

a I-A team in the mighty SEC(!) on the HOME FIELD of

MISSISSIPPI STATE.  Just because you state your conclusion

as if the act of stating is a proof doesn't make it a valid

proof.  And MAINE didn't even make the I-AA playoffs.

And on that same field, MISSISSIPPI STATE defeated

FLORIDA, and FLORIDA defeated mighty GEORGIA.

And anyway, the BCS uses my "ELO-CHESS"  which IGNORES the

scores and that's the one in RED color that has Auburn #3.

My response to his...well you know:

Jeff,

> Thanks for answering. And you know as well as I that the Maine loss was

> a fluke. You don't scincerely believe that a Harvard could complete in

> the Big 12 or Pac 10, do you? Yours is the same argument that had people

> thinking that Ed Marinaro should've won the Heisman over Pat Sullivan. :-)

His response...again:

A computer system wouldn't be a system if people could

simply omit those results which they defined to be "flukes".

Perhaps in the future, teams like MAINE should simply

"mail in" their defeat and accept a "loss" of say 58-0

from a team in the mighty SEC.  It would sort of be

liking mailing in one's resignation in a game of

postal chess.  Given your reasoning, it's surprising

that MAINE even risked the travel costs to show up and

play when the faced certain and total defeat at the

hands of the mighty SEC.

My response:

I hear ya, Jeff. But be realistic...William and Mary, the 50th best D-1 team in the country?! And look at the teams behind Harvard. Do you really think they could "consistently" beat, say, Arkansas??? Something is not right. I'm in the computer business myself...IT to be exact...and we have a saying...and this is  not a flame...but the saying is, "garbage in, garbage out". A computer that spits out Harvard as the 36th best team in the country has something wrong on the "IN" side.... :-)

AND I'm spent!!!

127065[/snapback]

Anything you say about his program is taken as an insult by him personally. I did not detect anything you said as inflammatory, but his response to you about "THE MIGHTY SEC" shows he obviously has a bias against us.

[jaydubb121 22]

Rickyd please don't include yourself with us. Thank you.

We are the undefeated Auburn Tigers. You are a lowly corndog fan with a chip on your shoulder and have a reputation for weak-ass smack. Now geaux home and try to marry a beaver as you've been instructed.

That is all.

[CarolinaTiger 0]

does he really consistently say "mighty SEC"? doesn't that bias the computer programmer?

And MAINE didn't even make the I-AA playoffs.

And on that same field, MISSISSIPPI STATE defeated

FLORIDA, and FLORIDA defeated mighty GEORGIA.

also...did UF really beat UGA this year?

maybe he should go back & recheck his algorithms if he's got that plugged in.

how many OTHER mistakes has he made?

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

Rickyd please don't include yourself with us. Thank you.

We are the undefeated Auburn Tigers.  You are a lowly corndog fan with a chip on your shoulder and have a reputation for weak-ass smack. Now geaux home and try to marry a beaver as you've been instructed.

That is all.

127083[/snapback]

Way to go jaydubb

[aumoore 0]

Has anyone asked how this program figures strength of schedule? At some point humans have to put the "Garbage in".

Untill the BCS figures out that football games are played in this world on grass and astroturf by men who bleed real blood and not in cyperspace by electrons representing 1's and 0's we will never have a true champion.

[aumoore 0]

Guys

We do not need to keep sending derrogitive e-mails ot Jeff Sagarin and expect him to come back with anything other that the same garbage.

Here is my attempt to be civil

Dear Jeff:

I have been reading some heated exchanges between yourself and some of my fellow Auburn fans and am very disturbed by all this. First off I apologize for my fellow Auburn fans saying bad things about your computer poll just because it does not spit out what they want. Second I am disturbed by you referring to our conference as "The Mighty SEC" and using one of the worst Mississippi State teams as a reference. This shows a bias by yourself and as a professional you need to show no bias at all. To do otherwise would be cause for distrust in your computer programs.

Without disclosing your formula if it is a secrete can you tell me how you come up with the SOS and Rankings of the teams? Also how do you input the week to week data into the formula. Finally are all the computer polls including yours audited by an outside source?

I thank you in advance

[Eagle Eye 7]

Here's mine:

JEff

> I'm sorry...but there is something drasticly wrong with your poll. There

> are so many examples of misplaced support for teams, I don't know where

> to start...Harvard would be a good place. But I'll tell you up front

> that I'm an Auburn fan. And I can't see how in the world we could be 6th

> in anybody's poll!

> Look, I've heard all of the arguments about our out of conference

> schedule...and frankly, after looking at the teams USC and OU

> played...even those don't hold water. But here's the thing that's being

> overlooked the most. Auburn has beaten THREE TOP TEN TEAMS (when they

> played)!!! OU and USC have beaten, I believe, TWO, between them. And

> please don't give me the LSU was overrated...then UT was

> overrated...then UGA was os overrated. How come everyone is overrated

> after WE BEAT THEM!!!???

> Why isn't Cal overrated, after USC beat them...and Texas ( who barely

> beat ARKANSAS????) after OU beat them, etc, etc, etc!????

> There are serious flaws in your poll Jeff...and it's unfair to everybody

> for you NOT to fix it. Harvard??? How many teams below them could they

> actually beat???!!! Ridiculous.

> Thanks,

> Steven Chappelle

> Atlanta, GA

His response:

I believe MAINE, a I-AA team defeated MISSISSIPPI STATE,

a I-A team in the mighty SEC(!) on the HOME FIELD of

MISSISSIPPI STATE.  Just because you state your conclusion

as if the act of stating is a proof doesn't make it a valid

proof.  And MAINE didn't even make the I-AA playoffs.

And on that same field, MISSISSIPPI STATE defeated

FLORIDA, and FLORIDA defeated mighty GEORGIA.

And anyway, the BCS uses my "ELO-CHESS"  which IGNORES the

scores and that's the one in RED color that has Auburn #3.

My response to his...well you know:

Jeff,

> Thanks for answering. And you know as well as I that the Maine loss was

> a fluke. You don't scincerely believe that a Harvard could complete in

> the Big 12 or Pac 10, do you? Yours is the same argument that had people

> thinking that Ed Marinaro should've won the Heisman over Pat Sullivan. :-)

His response...again:

A computer system wouldn't be a system if people could

simply omit those results which they defined to be "flukes".

Perhaps in the future, teams like MAINE should simply

"mail in" their defeat and accept a "loss" of say 58-0

from a team in the mighty SEC.  It would sort of be

liking mailing in one's resignation in a game of

postal chess.  Given your reasoning, it's surprising

that MAINE even risked the travel costs to show up and

play when the faced certain and total defeat at the

hands of the mighty SEC.

My response:

I hear ya, Jeff. But be realistic...William and Mary, the 50th best D-1 team in the country?! And look at the teams behind Harvard. Do you really think they could "consistently" beat, say, Arkansas??? Something is not right. I'm in the computer business myself...IT to be exact...and we have a saying...and this is  not a flame...but the saying is, "garbage in, garbage out". A computer that spits out Harvard as the 36th best team in the country has something wrong on the "IN" side.... :-)

AND I'm spent!!!

127065[/snapback]

Since when did Florida beat Georgia. Even his computer could probably tell him that.

Georgia has only 2 losses and if I remember right that they already lost to Tennessee and Auburn. I also remember the 13 or 14 Florida over Georgia win streak being over. And if he is using the fact that Miss State beat Florida, and Florida supposedly beat Georgia then is he implying that Miss State would beat Georgia, because if he is I don't know if his system can live much longer. where he gets 3 Georgia lossses I don't know. But anyways lets just beat the Vols, but even 11-0 regular season is Awesome!!!!

War Eagle!!!

[Streyeder 0]

Isn't Sagarin a bama grad? I remember reading where he has some tie to bama but don't remember for sure if he is a grad.

127062[/snapback]

If so, wouldn't Bama be ranked above Harvard? lol

[SupperClub 0]

Isn't Sagarin a bama grad? I remember reading where he has some tie to bama but don't remember for sure if he is a grad.

127062[/snapback]

If so, wouldn't Bama be ranked above Harvard? lol

127117[/snapback]

If this is true, he should be commended for being the first Bama fan to accept reality.

[sportwareagle 0]

As much as I like to beat up Bama when they are down, you can't possibly think that Bama should not be above Harvard.

This guy is just a moron and there's no other way around it. Don't humor him anymore, just let him be a dumbass.

WAR DAMN EAGLE AND BEAT THE VOLS!!!!!

[d-r 0]

"A computer system wouldn't be a system if people could

simply omit those results which they defined to be "flukes".

Perhaps in the future, teams like MAINE should simply

"mail in" their defeat and accept a "loss" of say 58-0

from a team in the mighty SEC.  It would sort of be

liking mailing in one's resignation in a game of

postal chess.  Given your reasoning, it's surprising

that MAINE even risked the travel costs to show up and

play when the faced certain and total defeat at the

hands of the mighty SEC."

Now wait a cotten picking minute here. Did his computer program predict that Maine would beat Mississippi State? That's what the sagarin rating is for, isn't it?

Isn't this guy actually saying that he can't predict the games and they should be played out on the field? Isn't that sort of the opposite of the whole bcs system?

He goes on to talk about Miss. State beating Florida, but did he predict that one, too? Well, no. On the contrary, using this week's data, after the game has been played, if one used his recommended "Predictor" scores he still has Florida State beating Florida. Whoops. Guess it isn't perfect.

It seems really odd to me that his argument is based on upsets that he didn't predict - when really the crux of the matter is that his computer poll is messed up in the first place. What a poor argument, just throwing out straw men.

He unfortantely says that Florida then beat "Mighty" Georgia, whoops. I hope he didn't miss that one in the key punching. But guess what, Florida did beat Florida State - on FSU's home field - I wonder if he calls it the "Mighty ACC" every time he writes it.

He missed:

Maine>Mississippi State>UF >FSU

Michigan State> Wisconsin

Ohio State > Michigan

North Carolina, Clemson > Miami

etc., etc., and all he wants to do is be smart alecky about the "Mighty SEC."

Wow, really nice defense there, I'm at a loss. But if I'm reading this right, he is saying that he can not predict the games accurately and that they should be played on the field (rather than "mailing in" a forfeit), and I think that might be as good an argument for the worthlessness of computer polls that I've ever heard.

What the computer pollsters don't seem to understand is the concept of "error" - that percentage of the variance in outcomes that you can not explain with your predictions. College football is full of error, from a team loosing a center to a QB with a cold to an emotionally team playing a rival to a rainy day, and so on and so on. Any of those random things that can influence the outcome of a game. They also seem to be predicated on the notion that because team A beat team B and team B beat team C, then team C will beat team A. Most of us learned that doesn't work that way when we were children, but I'm not sure computer pollers ever played little league. But this is a systematic thing, not error, because Team A may "match up" very well against Team B, but not very well against Team C. Football is a complex and transactional interchange, not easily quantified by linear models.

Anyway, he seems like a sad little feller. He can't seem to help but saying "Mighty."

[rickyd 0]

Rickyd please don't include yourself with us. Thank you.

We are the undefeated Auburn Tigers.  You are a lowly corndog fan with a chip on your shoulder and have a reputation for weak-ass smack. Now geaux home and try to marry a beaver as you've been instructed.

That is all.

127083[/snapback]

Us as in the SEC, moron, and if I have a chip on my shoulder, I can assure you it is a Crystal one.

Never fear, I would never try to confuse you as to how I feel for awbarn.

[rickyd 0]

Rickyd please don't include yourself with us. Thank you.

We are the undefeated Auburn Tigers.  You are a lowly corndog fan with a chip on your shoulder and have a reputation for weak-ass smack. Now geaux home and try to marry a beaver as you've been instructed.

That is all.

127083[/snapback]

Way to go jaydubb

127086[/snapback]

I see your reading skills are right there with j dumbbbs.

[jaydubb121 22]

Rickyd please don't include yourself with us. Thank you.

We are the undefeated Auburn Tigers.  You are a lowly corndog fan with a chip on your shoulder and have a reputation for weak-ass smack. Now geaux home and try to marry a beaver as you've been instructed.

That is all.

127083[/snapback]

Us as in the SEC, moron, and if I have a chip on my shoulder, I can assure you it is a Crystal one.

Never fear, I would never try to confuse you as to how I feel for awbarn.

127225[/snapback]

Let's leave your drug habits out of it, but that does explain quite a bit.

[rickyd 0]

Rickyd please don't include yourself with us. Thank you.

We are the undefeated Auburn Tigers.  You are a lowly corndog fan with a chip on your shoulder and have a reputation for weak-ass smack. Now geaux home and try to marry a beaver as you've been instructed.

That is all.

127083[/snapback]

Us as in the SEC, moron, and if I have a chip on my shoulder, I can assure you it is a Crystal one.

Never fear, I would never try to confuse you as to how I feel for awbarn.

127225[/snapback]

Let's leave your drug habits out of it, but that does explain quite a bit.

127229[/snapback]

I suppose I'll just have to tuck my tail, cause that retort of yours, definitely proves you to be an expert in weak ass smack.

[WarTim 3,456]

Poor .....All of the weak___ "smack" in the world will not change the FACTS:

AU 10

corndogs 9

[rickyd 0]

Poor  .....All of the weak___ "smack" in the world will not change the FACTS:

AU 10

corndogs 9

127241[/snapback]

Whoopty friggen doo, 31-7 got us a Crystal Ball, what is 10-9 gettin you?

And remember, I made a comment about sagarin, you guys started with this WEAK AZZ and I do mean weak, smack.

[Aubie16 1]

Poor  .....All of the weak___ "smack" in the world will not change the FACTS:

AU 10

corndogs 9

127241[/snapback]

Whoopty friggen doo, 31-7 got us a Crystal Ball, what is 10-9 gettin you?

And remember, I made a comment about sagarin, you guys started with this WEAK AZZ and I do mean weak, smack.

127265[/snapback]

Well for starters it has given us an UNDEFEATED SEASON...which is more than your team did last year...

[cadillacattack 0]

Whoopty friggen doo, 31-7 got us a Crystal Ball

Maybe St. Nick shoulda' used it to see into LSU's future ...... coulda' kept him from getting his ass handed to him this season

About the BCS, here's an odd one. Goergia and UT played virtually the same schedule , yet the BCS ranks UGA 7th and the team that whupped them , UT at 15th ?????????????

[PenguinAUB 0]

i think if you used less childish words like sucks, you woulda got a better response

or yeah, UGA sucks!!!

[AU4Ever 0]

Back to this Sagarin idiot. I looked at his SOS rankings and here's some examples of how screwed up his rankings are:

New Mexico has a SOS of 31. They play Wyoming, UNLV, BYU, Air Force, San Diego State, Colorado State and Utah out of the Mountain West Conf. They also played Wash St., Oregon St., Texas Tech and New Mexico State. Tell me that's the 31st hardest schedule when Florida has a 59, Michigan has a 52, AU has a 72, Tenn has a 49, Wisconson has a 75, Ohio St has a 46, Minnesota has a 76. I see now why he has the SEC as the 6th best conference. He actually thinks it harder to play in the MWC than it is in the SEC or the Big 10(11). And this guy is being paid to do this type of ranking for the BCS. And the BCS is actually paying money to use his rankings. And his rankings are part of what is killing AU's chances to get to the OB. If ESPN is biased toward AU, then this guy is biased against us. And his votes count. All ESPN can do it talk good about us. What they say doesn't count.

[aumoore 0]

Here is his responce to my civil letter.

Ruble,

If you received the volume and type of emails that I

receive, many of them obscene, you would understand

why I'm not always "professional" in my responses.

I respond in the same manner that someone writes to me.

You've written in a civilized manner and that's how I'm

writing back to you. What's sad/funny is that if my

ratings were to have Auburn as #1 or #2, and say

Oklahoma #3, then I'd be receiving no hate emails from

Auburn fans but receiving those emails from Oklahoma fans.

And similarly if Southern Cal was the "odd man out".

I almost always have the SEC in the top 3 in conference

rating. This year is an exception. My references to

the "Mighty SEC" come after I've received barrages of emails

saying essentially the same thing: "Everyone KNOWS the SEC

is the BEST and if your ratings don't show that, then YOUR

RATINGS and YOU SUCK". What's the "professional" way to deal

with such people? What type of people would write a letter

to someone they don't even know and have it filled with

obscenities and then expect a "professional" response?

I do all my own data work and then have a way of comparing

the input with someone else who does his ratings totally independent

of me. That way we know that we have precisely the same scores

for every game. And you also have the security of knowing that

with the internet, if someone spotted a wrong W-L in my files

online, the whole world would know about it 15 minutes later

The sequence of operation is as follows:

(1) The program first determines the ratings of all the teams

using who played who and where each game was played.

And who WON and for the part of my ratings that uses

scores, what was the score.

(2) then as a simple arithmetic tabulation, it goes back and

averages up the difficulty of each teams games, allowing

for the fact that a home game is EASIER than an away game.

So if the home edge=3, and you played a team with a "RATING"

(it uses the "RATING" in purple closest to the team names)

of 80, and you played them at your home field, it would

count as a difficulty of 80 - 3 = 77. If you played them

on a NEUTRAL it would count as 80, and if you played them

at their place it would count as 80 + 3 = 83. And I allow

for a few "CLOSEBY" games so that if Auburn played Southern Cal

in Birmingham, I'd probably call that a "CLOSEBY" which is

half the home edge.

By the way, Auburn has played 7 home games and only 4 road games.

I'll be calling their upcoming game with Tennessee a NEUTRAL field.

So that 7-4 disparity means that Auburn's schedule strength is

lower than if they'd played 4 at home and 7 away. Imagine if

two teams played identical schedules in terms of opponents but

one team played 11 at home and 0 on the road and the other team

played all 11 games on the road. It would self-evident that their

schedules were NOT EQUAL in difficulty.

I hope you can see that when someone like you writes a reasoned letter

I respond in the same fashion.

Sincerely,

Jeff Sagarin

Jeff is not the main problem. The bozo's who use computer scores and VOTE on the champion are the problem

[SCWarEagle 4]

The Sagarin Computer Ratings still SUCK SUCK SUCK SUCK SUCK!!!!!!!

If Harvard were to take the field against Arkansas, there is a good chance that some of the Harvard players would be killed dead. They would need a team doctor to call the game like it was a boxing match.

I repeat - The Sagarin Computer Ratings suck.