A Really Scary Thought

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

I hadn't really thought about it but what will happen if the militants go into Jordan? We have a huge embassy in Amman which is also a highly classified intelligence post. Will we defend Jordan and our embassy operation? If we don't defend Jordan, any friends we have left in the middle east will be long gone.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

Iraqis are flooding across the Jordanian border. How many can Jordan stand?

[japantiger 4,077]

By most Middle East small country standards, the Jordanian force is well trained and disciplined. They are not a wealthy nation and their equipment has not kept up over the last decade. Jordan has been very supportive of US Middle East efforts; troops, hospitals, logistics, helicopters, etc., for the Iraq efforts. But, if we won't support Iraq, would we support Jordan? Hey, I'm sure the crack foreign policy team has thought thru all this...I mean look at how well the Hillary brain trust anticipated Al Qaeda insurgents trying to take Iraq...oh wait, she said she couldn't have anticipated that? really? I thought I read that in just about every US newspaper in 2006....I mean, they were so effective on anticipating what Russia would do...oh, wait, they didn't anticipate that in spite of the news reports...well there's Lybia....oh, wait...we're screwed.

The question at the point Jordan comes under attack is the reaction of their Western neighbor, Israel. The Jordan river is about 30 feet wide for most of it's width from the North to the Dead Sea. The Israeli and Jordanian solders talk to each other across the border with their weapons slung across their backs. From the Dead Sea to Aqaba, you can't tell what is Israel and what is Jordan. There's really nothing but miles and miles of miles and miles (the biblical wilderness). It's only as you near Aqaba that the country distinctions become evident again; but there's just a check point that separates Eilat from Aqaba...otherwise you can't tell the difference.

But again, I'm sure our crack foreign policy team has this nailed....what could go wrong with an an inept and disinterested President who hires inept and disinterested people to execute (or not really execute) a foreign policy based on willfull ignorance and disinterest. I think Patches O'houlihan said it best "this administration couldn't hit water if it fell out of a boat".

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

jt.....As you say, some places in the Jordan River are very narrow. About a year ago, I threw a pebble across it from Jordan into Israel. An Isreali soldier smiled at me.

[japantiger 4,077]

jt.....As you say, some places in the Jordan River are very narrow. About a year ago, I threw a pebble across it from Jordan into Israel. An Isreali soldier smiled at me.

Have done the same

Pretty moving to step into the Jordan, huh.

Surprised we haven't seen any insightful response from the usual crowd. I guess they are following O and Hillary's plan of ignoring obvious concerns that can be anticipated and planned for; and then feigning that it was unknowable and that they were surprised after the obviously knowable happens.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

Right on.

[Strychnine 1,804]

As one of the better educated countries in the Middle East, Jordan does not have a population base that is going to be receptive of a group like ISIS. There is also no growing internal rebellion for them to take advantage of. Attempting to move into Jordan would be quite a step too far, and would be opposed by more than Jordan alone. As japantiger said, Israel and Jordan are quite cooperative with one another, and I have little doubt that Israel would quickly come to their aid (especially considering what they would be aiding against). Israel is certainly not going to allow what is basically their only rational and/or allied neighbor fall to militant Wahhabi's. Militant Wahhabi's want no part of fighting against the IDF in direct confrontations. The matter of an incursion into Jordan would be settled before we needed to get involved in it.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

I hope you are right but I wouldn't bet a nickel on it. These bad guys want control of the whole Muslim world.

[cptau 169]

I'm not sure what this administration's middle east policy really is. The policy used to be protecting the flow of trade (oil) and Israel's right to exist. It seems that they want a new power balance in the middle east. Israel is heavily armed with their own weapons and those provided from the West. Saudi Arabia has most of the oil and most of the money over there allowing them to influence regional politics and the world economy.

This administration wants to reduce the use of fossil fuel, so they may not care about the lack of oil from the middle east and huge increases in the price of fuel in the US and Europe. That would please the carbon foot print/ global warming people and those that want to make money on expensive alternative energy solutions. They also seem to care less about Israel. It seems to be a not my problem attitude.

The problem is that this would result in a worldwide depression and millions of refugees from the middle east moving into other countries.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

Time to approve the Keystone pipeline Obama.

[Strychnine 1,804]

I hope you are right but I wouldn't bet a nickel on it. These bad guys want control of the whole Muslim world.

They do, but what they want and what they can achieve are two completely different things. They moved into a Syria destabilized by civil war. They are moving in an Iraq destabilized by a war with us and the replacement of their government (which involved a switch in power base from Sunni to Shia). Both Syria and Iraq also have literacy rates in the 70's. A bunch of guys roaming around with technicals are only going to get so far once they run into a motivated country with an actual established military, which is what they would find in Jordan and definitely in Jordan's ally Israel. And they know it.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

I think that's what we thought before 911. No way a bunch of terrorists could hijack three big jets and do what they did. But again I hope you are right.

[Strychnine 1,804]

I think that's what we thought before 911. No way a bunch of terrorists could hijack three big jets and do what they did. But again I hope you are right.

I never thought that, especially considering that commercial airliners had been successfully hijacked on more than one occasion. To the previous hijackers, hostages were more valuable than making a statement. To Al-Qaeda, making the statement was more important. To me, it was inevitable with the rise of more and more Wahhabi groups.

[japantiger 4,077]

As one of the better educated countries in the Middle East, Jordan does not have a population base that is going to be receptive of a group like ISIS. There is also no growing internal rebellion for them to take advantage of. Attempting to move into Jordan would be quite a step too far, and would be opposed by more than Jordan alone. As japantiger said, Israel and Jordan are quite cooperative with one another, and I have little doubt that Israel would quickly come to their aid (especially considering what they would be aiding against). Israel is certainly not going to allow what is basically their only rational and/or allied neighbor fall to militant Wahhabi's. Militant Wahhabi's want no part of fighting against the IDF in direct confrontations. The matter of an incursion into Jordan would be settled before we needed to get involved in it.

So now we leave our foreign policy up to Israel? Good lord...have you not thought of the implications of the Israeli's going into Jordan to kill Muslims?

[cptau 169]

The Ottoman Turks and their empire were not such a bad bunch after all.

[Strychnine 1,804]

As one of the better educated countries in the Middle East, Jordan does not have a population base that is going to be receptive of a group like ISIS. There is also no growing internal rebellion for them to take advantage of. Attempting to move into Jordan would be quite a step too far, and would be opposed by more than Jordan alone. As japantiger said, Israel and Jordan are quite cooperative with one another, and I have little doubt that Israel would quickly come to their aid (especially considering what they would be aiding against). Israel is certainly not going to allow what is basically their only rational and/or allied neighbor fall to militant Wahhabi's. Militant Wahhabi's want no part of fighting against the IDF in direct confrontations. The matter of an incursion into Jordan would be settled before we needed to get involved in it.

So now we leave our foreign policy up to Israel? Good lord...have you not thought of the implications of the Israeli's going into Jordan to kill Muslims?

I have. To the idiots: "OMG the Jews are killing our brother Muslims! JIHAD JIHAD!" To the more rational in the bunch, the Israelis would have just demonstrated their willingness to fight for the stability and sovereignty of an Arab nation.

[cptau 169]

As one of the better educated countries in the Middle East, Jordan does not have a population base that is going to be receptive of a group like ISIS. There is also no growing internal rebellion for them to take advantage of. Attempting to move into Jordan would be quite a step too far, and would be opposed by more than Jordan alone. As japantiger said, Israel and Jordan are quite cooperative with one another, and I have little doubt that Israel would quickly come to their aid (especially considering what they would be aiding against). Israel is certainly not going to allow what is basically their only rational and/or allied neighbor fall to militant Wahhabi's. Militant Wahhabi's want no part of fighting against the IDF in direct confrontations. The matter of an incursion into Jordan would be settled before we needed to get involved in it.

So now we leave our foreign policy up to Israel? Good lord...have you not thought of the implications of the Israeli's going into Jordan to kill Muslims?

I have. To the idiots: "OMG the Jews are killing our brother Muslims! JIHAD JIHAD!" To the more rational in the bunch, the Israelis would have just demonstrated their willingness to fight for the stability and sovereignty of an Arab nation.

I'm not sure how many rational people are in charge of those middle eastern countries. I'm also afraid of what will happen if the Israelis have to use their tactical nukes.

[Strychnine 1,804]

As one of the better educated countries in the Middle East, Jordan does not have a population base that is going to be receptive of a group like ISIS. There is also no growing internal rebellion for them to take advantage of. Attempting to move into Jordan would be quite a step too far, and would be opposed by more than Jordan alone. As japantiger said, Israel and Jordan are quite cooperative with one another, and I have little doubt that Israel would quickly come to their aid (especially considering what they would be aiding against). Israel is certainly not going to allow what is basically their only rational and/or allied neighbor fall to militant Wahhabi's. Militant Wahhabi's want no part of fighting against the IDF in direct confrontations. The matter of an incursion into Jordan would be settled before we needed to get involved in it.

So now we leave our foreign policy up to Israel? Good lord...have you not thought of the implications of the Israeli's going into Jordan to kill Muslims?

I have. To the idiots: "OMG the Jews are killing our brother Muslims! JIHAD JIHAD!" To the more rational in the bunch, the Israelis would have just demonstrated their willingness to fight for the stability and sovereignty of an Arab nation.

I'm not sure how many rational people are in charge of those middle eastern countries. I'm also afraid of what will happen if the Israelis have to use their tactical nukes.

Rational by our standards? Not many. However, I would say the King of Jordan is quite rational. Most of the Gulf states can be counted on to do whatever is in their best interests, and the whole region has learned that direct confrontation with Israel is not in any of their best interests. If they were going to defeat Israel, they've long since missed their chance. If it were necessary, the Israelis making a move to support and defend one of the only Arab countries in the region that is friendly to them could go quite a long way toward reinforcing the point that they can actually be very good neighbors if you act rationally toward them. I doubt the Israelis would have to make a move though, I have a feeling that monitoring the situation closely (as you can be sure Mossad is) would be sufficient as they could simply give Jordan sufficient warning to mobilize. Unlike Iraq, Jordan does have a functional air force.

As for their tactical nukes, I have a difficult time imagining a scenario where Israel needs to pull those out. They're not morons, and they're quite aware of the consequences of using them. If it did come down to the Israelis fighting alongside the Jordanians to drive out a group like ISIS, I would not be surprised if even the Iranians spoke in support of the move (or did not say anything about it). They may have some serious fundamental problems with Israel, but they despise groups like ISIS even more.

[japantiger 4,077]

While Jordan as a gov't is more moderate, that does not mean the populace is. 1/3 of the population are Palestinian refugees. Ever seen what a camp inside Jordan looks like? 800k people crammed into tents and shacks and all blaming Israel for it. Jordan has not assimilated these folks... Jordan is a dictatorship like the rest of the countries....remember the payments they made during Arab spring to buy the militants off to stand down? You greatly over estimate the impact of modrates in the Middle East. Also, it is less about the reaction inside Jordan and more about the reaction in Saudi, Iran, etc...they are not moderates.