Note on Yards to Point Ratio

[StatTiger 3,188]

Over the past 10 seasons, the average yards to point ratio at the FBS level is 13.9 yards gained for every point scored. Gus Malzahn's offense has a ratio of 12.8 yards gained for every point scored.

This statistic is one way of gauging the efficiency of an offense. Yardage is good but scoring is always the key to success.

During Malzahn's ten years at the collegiate level (135 games), his offense has made the nation's top-30 in yardage per game on 8 occasions and the top-30 of points per game, 7 times. This is great production until considering yards to point ratio, where Malzahn's offense has cracked the top-30 only 3 times. This would be his 2008 Tulsa offense (#19), his 2010 Auburn offense (#19) and his 2013 Auburn offense (#28). Malzahn's average ranking in yards to point ratio is No. 37 over the past ten seasons.

Malzahn's TD Pct in the red zone might explain the lack of production in yards to point ratio. His offense has finished in the top-25 of TD Pct inside the RZ only 4 times and only twice in 6 seasons at Auburn.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

Maybe I'm doing the head math wrong, but wouldn't a low yards gained to points scored also potentially indicate good special teams play, because of shorter fields?

[StatTiger 3,188]

Maybe I'm doing the head math wrong, but wouldn't a low yards gained to points scored also potentially indicate good special teams play, because of shorter fields?

Special teams and defense would play a huge factor. The 2011 LSU team is a prime example. They were #86 in yards per game but #17 in PPG. This resulted in being #1 in yards to point ratio.

[warhogone 103]

As usual, great stuff Stat. Preciate you and your love of stats. They make what we think we see make more sense. WDE

[amsterjam 107]

So I guess that means our defense over the past 10 years hasn't helped that ratio much.

[StatTiger 3,188]

So I guess that means our defense over the past 10 years hasn't helped that ratio much.

1992-2008, 16 % of Auburn's offensive possessions began on the opponent's side of the field. It has dropped to 11% from 2009-2015.

[AUIH1 1,515]

Stat,

Please tell me if I am wrong. We all know our D has sucked out loud since Tuberville resigned/quit/was fired, but started to regain some sense of pride under Muschamp last year. However; shouldn't Gus' tepid efficiency in scoring TDs while in the redzone be a concern to AU fans who still believe Gus is a genius on O?

wde

[StatTiger 3,188]

Stat,

Please tell me if I am wrong. We all know our D has sucked out loud since Tuberville resigned/quit/was fired, but started to regain some sense of pride under Muschamp last year. However; shouldn't Gus' tepid efficiency in scoring TDs while in the redzone be a concern to AU fans who still believe Gus is a genius on O?

wde

I would image most Auburn fans are hoping to see the production Auburn had in the red zone when they were ranked 13th in 2009, 26th in 2010 and 13th during 2013.

[AUIH1 1,515]

Stat,

Please tell me if I am wrong. We all know our D has sucked out loud since Tuberville resigned/quit/was fired, but started to regain some sense of pride under Muschamp last year. However; shouldn't Gus' tepid efficiency in scoring TDs while in the redzone be a concern to AU fans who still believe Gus is a genius on O?

wde

I would image most Auburn fans are hoping to see the production Auburn had in the red zone when they were ranked 13th in 2009, 26th in 2010 and 13th during 2013.

Thanks for the response. I get it. I don't think all will though.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Stat,

Please tell me if I am wrong. We all know our D has sucked out loud since Tuberville resigned/quit/was fired, but started to regain some sense of pride under Muschamp last year. However; shouldn't Gus' tepid efficiency in scoring TDs while in the redzone be a concern to AU fans who still believe Gus is a genius on O?

wde

I would image most Auburn fans are hoping to see the production Auburn had in the red zone when they were ranked 13th in 2009, 26th in 2010 and 13th during 2013.

Thanks for the response. I get it. I don't think all will though.

Why would an Auburn fan not hope for better production?

[AUIH1 1,515]

Stat,

Please tell me if I am wrong. We all know our D has sucked out loud since Tuberville resigned/quit/was fired, but started to regain some sense of pride under Muschamp last year. However; shouldn't Gus' tepid efficiency in scoring TDs while in the redzone be a concern to AU fans who still believe Gus is a genius on O?

wde

I would image most Auburn fans are hoping to see the production Auburn had in the red zone when they were ranked 13th in 2009, 26th in 2010 and 13th during 2013.

Thanks for the response. I get it. I don't think all will though.

Why would an Auburn fan not hope for better production?

I am sure we all hope for better production in the red zone. Is it a coincidence that red zone production was best in Gus' 1st years as OC and HC? Who is playing QB may be an easy answer for 2010 and 2013 but since Chris Todd was the QB in 2009 who knows. We are also now in consecutive years of red zone problems (one with NM at QB). Per another thread, hopefully this is another way Gus can evolve as a play caller.

wde

[StatTiger 3,188]

I am sure we all hope for better production in the red zone. Is it a coincidence that red zone production was best in Gus' 1st years as OC and HC? Who is playing QB may be an easy answer for 2010 and 2013 but since Chris Todd was the QB in 2009 who knows. We are also now in consecutive years of red zone problems (one with NM at QB). Per another thread, hopefully this is another way Gus can evolve as a play caller.

wde

As fans we tend to assume a bad play was the result of a poor play call. I'm not saying play calling has been perfect but a lack of execution can ruin a good play call. For example... the 2014 Auburn offense was No. 40 nationally in RZ TD Pct. Off the top of my head, I recall 2 dropped TD passes and a fumble inside the RZ that cost Auburn 3 TD's inside the RZ. If Auburn had properly executed just those 3 plays inside the RZ, they are No. 16 in RZ TD Pct in 2014.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

I am sure we all hope for better production in the red zone. Is it a coincidence that red zone production was best in Gus' 1st years as OC and HC? Who is playing QB may be an easy answer for 2010 and 2013 but since Chris Todd was the QB in 2009 who knows. We are also now in consecutive years of red zone problems (one with NM at QB). Per another thread, hopefully this is another way Gus can evolve as a play caller.

wde

As fans we tend to assume a bad play was the result of a poor play call. I'm not saying play calling has been perfect but a lack of execution can ruin a good play call. For example... the 2014 Auburn offense was No. 40 nationally in RZ TD Pct. Off the top of my head, I recall 2 dropped TD passes and a fumble inside the RZ that cost Auburn 3 TD's inside the RZ. If Auburn had properly executed just those 3 plays inside the RZ, they are No. 16 in RZ TD Pct in 2014.

Even more so... sometimes a play actually looks like a bad call, but in truth, the O-line failed to execute, or the runner didn't see the hole, or the QB made the wrong call on a option. There are a pile or reasons why a play can fail that have nothing to do with bad calls.

That being said, we're all sick of "Peyton/Jovon/Roc/whoever up the middle" on first down. I would love to listen to the explanation on that because I know I'm going to walk away shaking my head either because I'm blown away by the fact that the reason makes sense, or I'm questioning how they could think that it was a good reason.

[StatTiger 3,188]

That being said, we're all sick of "Peyton/Jovon/Roc/whoever up the middle" on first down. I would love to listen to the explanation on that because I know I'm going to walk away shaking my head either because I'm blown away by the fact that the reason makes sense, or I'm questioning how they could think that it was a good reason.

If Auburn can actually establish the run on first down, I have no issues with running 75-80% of the time on first down. The problem is that AU under Malzahn's offensive control has averaged 5.0 yards or better running on first down during 42 of 80 games. When they average 5.0 or better, AU is 35-7 and when they don't, 22-16. Reaching 5.0 yards per rush on 1st down 52% of the time is not being consistent, so obviously, the playbook needs to expand on 1st down. If the 2016 Auburn offense can run like they did on first down during 2010, 2013 and 2014, it won't be a major issue. If it's like 2011 and 2015, it is a major issue.