US Treasury SURPLUS, January, 31, 2018

[Elephant Tipper 430]

MONTHLY TREASURY STATEMENT

Total receipts    $361 billion

Total outlays     $312 billion

SURPLUS           $49 billion

 

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/mthTreasStmt/mts0118.pdf

[HVAU 673]

"

The numbers: The U.S. government had a monthly budget surplus of $49 billion in January, down slightly from the same month last year. For the fiscal year to date, the government’s deficit is $176 billion, up from $159 billion in the year-ago period.

What happened: Some of the big drivers of spending in January were for the Department of Homeland Security, and interest on the public debt. Outlays for Homeland Security climbed by $2 billion, or 41% — something the Congressional Budget Office said was largely for disaster relief.

 

Receipts were up 5% more in January than last year, and withholding of individual income and payroll taxes was larger than usual since this January had one more business day than last year, CBO said.

Big picture: The latest budget figures arrived the same day President Donald Trump unveiled his fiscal 2019 budget proposal. The budget projects a deficit of nearly $1 trillion in the next fiscal year, and a near-doubling of shortfalls over the next decade."  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-runs-january-budget-surplus-of-49-billion-treasury-says-2018-02-12

If I'm not mistaken, this surplus is lower than the surplus in January 2017.

[TexasTiger 13,285]

1 hour ago, Elephant Tipper said:

MONTHLY TREASURY STATEMENT

Total receipts    $361 billion

Total outlays     $312 billion

SURPLUS           $49 billion

 

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/mthTreasStmt/mts0118.pdf

Your point?

[HVAU 673]

More stats

January Budget Surpluses/Deficit

17 51 billion

16 55 billion

15 -10 billion

14 -17 billion

13 2 billion

12 -27 billion

11 -42 billion

10 -63 billion

9 -83 billion

8 17 billion

7 20 billion

6 38 billion

5 8 billion

4 -1 billion

3 43 billion

2 11 billion

1 62 billion

0 76 billion

99 70 billion

98 25 billion

 

A major issue with using a single month is that receipts/outlays do not accurately reflect the yearly surplus/deficit.  There are months that have deficits during surplus years and vice versa.

 

[RunInRed 16,639]

55 minutes ago, HVAU said:

"The budget projects a deficit of nearly $1 trillion in the next fiscal year, and a near-doubling of shortfalls over the next decade."  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-runs-january-budget-surplus-of-49-billion-treasury-says-2018-02-12

Yeah, but we had a budget SURPLUS in January!!!! 

[HVAU 673]

I thought this would add more relevance to the numbers I listed (or actually diminish the relevance of single month surplus/deficit reporting).  Not included are budget numbers that were projections at the time of this article's publication.

www.thoughtco.com/history-of-us-federal-budget-deficit-3321439

• 2015 - $439 billion budget deficit
• 2014 - $514 billion budget deficit
• 2013 - $719 billion budget deficit

• 2012 - $1.1 trillion budget deficit

• 2011 - $1.3 trillion budget deficit

• 2010 - $1.3 trillion budget deficit

• 2009 - $1.4 trillion budget deficit

• 2008 - $455 billion budget deficit

• 2007 - $162 billion budget deficit

• 2006 - $248.2 billion budget deficit

• 2005 - $319 billion budget deficit

• 2004 - $412.7 billion budget deficit

• 2003 - $377.6 billion budget deficit

• 2002 - $157.8 billion budget deficit

• 2001 - $128.2 billion budget surplus

• 2000 - $236.2 billion budget surplus

• 1999 - $125.6 billion budget surplus

• 1998 - $69.3 billion budget surplus

[Elephant Tipper 430]

1 hour ago, TexasTiger said:

Your point?

To go on the record.  This is the first month of DJT's tax policy implementation.  Will it work ?  RIR already has a dour opinion.  I'm sure you share RIR's sentiment.  I'm very optimistic.  Let's see what happens.

[Elephant Tipper 430]

12 minutes ago, HVAU said:

I thought this would add more relevance to the numbers I listed (or actually diminish the relevance of single month surplus/deficit reporting).  Not included are budget numbers that were projections at the time of this article's publication.

www.thoughtco.com/history-of-us-federal-budget-deficit-3321439

• 2015 - $439 billion budget deficit

• 1998 - $69.3 billion budget surplus

This is a perfect addition to the discussion HVAU.  Thanks.

[HVAU 673]

1 minute ago, Elephant Tipper said:

To go on the record.  This is the first month of DJT's tax policy implementation.  Will it work ?  RIR already has a dour opinion.  I'm sure you share RIR's sentiment.  I'm very optimistic.  Let's see what happens.

Judging from the Market Watch article, there's little reason to be optimistic/pessimistic.  A good estimate of what receipts (based on the GOP tax plan) and outlays (based on budget goals of this administration) will be if Trump has his way.

[HVAU 673]

3 minutes ago, Elephant Tipper said:

This is a perfect addition to the discussion HVAU.  Thanks.

Why cherrypick only two years?  It's more logical to look at the trends as they relate to other historical/economical data.  I could have easily cherrypicked the numbers I presented to support one agenda or the other, but that would be intellectually dishonest.

 

[Elephant Tipper 430]

Just now, HVAU said:

Why cherrypick only two years?  It's more logical to look at the trends as they relate to other historical/economical data.

 

I wasn't picking two years.  Just editing the length of the quote so my response would be shorter.  That's all.

[HVAU 673]

Just now, Elephant Tipper said:

I wasn't picking two years.  Just editing the length of the quote so my response would be shorter.  That's all.

That being the case, I apologize for assuming you were being intellectually dishonest.

[homersapien 11,633]

Good grief.