ESPN'S SEC West Preview

[Auctoritas 2,828]

Well...this is starkly put. (Whole piece is good and worth the read - FB season is almost here!)

 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27150422/the-complete-sec-west-college-football-season-preview

 

In six seasons as Auburn's head coach, Gus Malzahn has beaten seven teams that were ranked in the top 10 at the time. Part of being a successful coach is stockpiling moments, and Malzahn's had more than his fair share.

Of course, when you play the schedule Auburn tends to play, you have plenty of opportunities at those moments. You probably suffer plenty of losses, too.

You could make the case that Auburn's own personal conference is the country's hardest. Not only do the Tigers play in the SEC West, but they also draw Georgia each year in interdivision play. They've also played a top-10 team in nonconference play for three straight years, and depending on where Oregon ends up in the preseason polls (likely in the No. 8-11 range), that could soon become four straight years.

In all, Malzahn's team has played 20 top-10 teams, nearly 3½ per year. (Alabama has played only 21 such games in that span, and that's with nine CFP games mixed in.) Auburn has played 15 more teams ranked between 11th and 25th, too (it's 9-6). In 2017, his Tigers beat No. 2 Georgia by 23 and No. 1 Alabama by 12. Their reward: having to play Georgia again for the SEC crown.

If FBS had an FCS-style 24-team playoff or something, we would say these schedules make Auburn battle-tested and ready. Instead, these schedules mostly eliminate the Tigers from playoff contention.

Nothing will change in this regard in 2019. Auburn is scheduled to play two projected top-20 teams (per S&P+), both away from home, among its first four games, then play five top-10 teams from there. For good measure, the Tigers also somehow go over a month without a home game in the middle of the season. They are projected eighth overall, and their most likely record is 8-4, a record that would feature at least three big-time wins.

Three big-time wins with a freshman quarterback, by the way.

With Jarrett Stidham going pro and last season's backup, Malik Willis, announcing his transfer in May, Malzahn will likely be starting either true freshman Bo Nix or one of two redshirt freshmen -- Joey Gatewood and Cord Sandberg -- when the Tigers meet Oregon in Arlington, Texas, in Week 1.

Granted, said QB will have a pretty good supporting cast. Backs JaTarvious Whitlow and Shaun Shivers were both ultra-efficient as freshmen last season, and veterans Kam Martinand Malik Miller are both still around as well. Plus, after returning almost no experience last season, the offensive line is stocked and continuous -- those responsible for 64 of last season's 65 starts are back, including five seniors.

There's some turnover to worry about at receiver with the loss of leaders Ryan Davis and Darius Slayton. But while a lack of passing game continuity can be damning for an offense, Lord knows there's talent in a batch that includes sophomores Seth Williams and Anthony Schwartz, 2018 injured players Will Hastingsand Eli Stove, and transfers Zach Farrar(Youngstown State) and H-back Jay Jay Wilson(Arizona State).

 

Derrick Brown returns to anchor a fearsome defensive front for the Tigers. Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire

Defensively, things appear as favorable as ever. Auburn has ranked sixth or better in defensive S&P+ in back-to-back seasons under coordinator Kevin Steele, and the Tigers boast a seasoned defensive front led by tackle Derrick Brown and ends Marlon Davidson and Nick Coe, plus a veteran secondary led by safeties Daniel Thomasand Jeremiah Dinson and corners Noah Igbinoghene (who held his own despite changing from offense to defense) and Javaris Davis. Young safeties Jamien Sherwood and Smoke Monday have major disruptive potential, too.

Still, Alabama returns Tua Tagovailoa, Georgia returns Jake Fromm, LSU returns Joe Burrow, Texas A&M returns Kellen Mond, Oregon returns Justin Herbert, and Auburn is starting a freshman. That's frightening. Sure, Malzahn's two best seasons (2013 and 2017) came with first-year starters. But that doesn't change the fact that Auburn's starting from behind in the most important position in the sport.

Malzahn has done a really good job on the Plains. During one of the most dominant times in rival Alabama's history, he has two SEC West titles, two Iron Bowl victories, two top-10 finishes and an SEC title. That's the same number of top-10 finishes and SEC titles as Tommy Tuberville managed in a decade. Hell, it's the same number of conference titles as Shug Jordan won, and Auburn's stadium is half-named after him! But even with a top-10 caliber team, this stands to be a season as emotionally fraught as any other he's faced there.

[McLoofus 35,182]

Connelly's S&P+ graph gives an excellent illustration of how we've arrived at the results we have and how our two primary units have performed relative to each other.

[HAYinthemiddleoftheBARN 204]

Well...WAR EAGLE GUS! Lets do it big!

[WalkingCarpet 1,379]

Bill gets real close to the root of the issue but can't quite force himself to say it: Gus has to stop throwing winnable games. There was no reason to lose to Tennessee last year. None. There was no way we should have lost to LSU after being up two scores, at home, in the second half. I don't care how many NFLers Mississippi State had last year, it was embarrassing to not reach the endzone against them and lose that one too. It's one thing to let a game or two get away in year two, it's something much worse for this to keep happening in year six. Gus did GREAT to scoop the division in '13 and '17, but it's been painful to watch much of the time in the other years. 

[Auctoritas 2,828]

I'm assuming everyone is giving a thumbs up/like because the website still hasn't implemented a "clawing at my eyeballs in horror" or "gibbering quietly in the corner" reaction option.

[gravejd 3,270]

Over the weekend i had a conversation with my Dad about AU football. And i think that conversation really does sum up where most AU fans are in reference to Gus Malzahn and the state of AU football today. My Dad has been a huge AU fan since he was a little kid and he went to AU in the early 70s so I always talk with him to get a feel of how to feel about where we are as a team. He does not succumb to the up and downs of being an Auburn fan like i do since i have much less experience following AU football only graduating from AU a short 8 years ago. 

Anyway the conversation went basically like this.....hey Dad, so how are you feeling about the football team this year?? Any good or a disaster waiting to happen?? Dad: "Son, i have no idea what they will do." Me in response: "Yup, me either"

We then moved on to other topics. 

Its the most frustrating thing about being an AU fan right now. I could see us winning anywhere from 5 to 10 games next season. Will we get the team that set a record against Purdue, beat 2 #1s in back to back weeks? or do we get the team that blew leads to LSU 2 years in a row and allowed Tenn to get their first SEC win in about a million years?? 

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

43 minutes ago, WalkingCarpet said:

Bill gets real close to the root of the issue but can't quite force himself to say it: Gus has to stop throwing winnable games. There was no reason to lose to Tennessee last year. None. There was no way we should have lost to LSU after being up two scores, at home, in the second half. I don't care how many NFLers Mississippi State had last year, it was embarrassing to not reach the endzone against them and lose that one too. It's one thing to let a game or two get away in year two, it's something much worse for this to keep happening in year six. Gus did GREAT to scoop the division in '13 and '17, but it's been painful to watch much of the time in the other years. 

Yep.  Those 3 very winnable losses led to a mediocre season instead of a very good season with a great bowl game.  All 3 losses were completely on Gus.

[gr82be 14,435]

1 hour ago, gravejd said:

 

Its the most frustrating thing about being an AU fan right now. I could see us winning anywhere from 5 to 10 games next season. Will we get the team that set a record against Purdue, beat 2 #1s in back to back weeks? or do we get the team that blew leads to LSU 2 years in a row and allowed Tenn to get their first SEC win in about a million years?? 

Why does it have to be either/or when we know we can have both? 😖

[DAG 33,997]

Well I guess this means we better actually beat the Mississippi state and Tennessee’s of this world.

[GwillMac6 20,688]

Not SEC West but I had nowhere else to put this. So what better place than here?! lol

 

[gr82be 14,435]

8 minutes ago, GwillMac6 said:

Not SEC West but I had nowhere else to put this. So what better place than here?! lol

 

 

[DAG 33,997]

16 minutes ago, GwillMac6 said:

Not SEC West but I had nowhere else to put this. So what better place than here?! lol

 

Big mistake 

[GwillMac6 20,688]

11 minutes ago, DAG said:

Big mistake 

 

[bigbird 60,569]

1 hour ago, GwillMac6 said:

 

Had a few mornings like that...

[GwillMac6 20,688]

5 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Had a few mornings like that...

Walk of Shame there bird?! lol

 

[bigbird 60,569]

2 minutes ago, GwillMac6 said:

Walk of Shame there bird?! lol

 

What's shame?

[GwillMac6 20,688]

Just now, bigbird said:

What's shame?

That is the right tude to have there bird! hahaha. Love it!!!!!

[80Tiger 899]

3 hours ago, dyehardfanAU said:

Yep.  Those 3 very winnable losses led to a mediocre season instead of a very good season with a great bowl game.  All 3 losses were completely on Gus.

Yes all losses are on Gus because he is the head coach but we lost TN because our defense couldn’t stop the TN passing game and in The MSU game we couldn’t stop their QB from running it down our throat. Defense had a hand in losing the LSU game with the multiple PI we had down the stretch.

[DAG 33,997]

11 minutes ago, 80Tiger said:

Yes all losses are on Gus because he is the head coach but we lost TN because our defense couldn’t stop the TN passing game and in The MSU game we couldn’t stop their QB from running it down our throat. Defense had a hand in losing the LSU game with the multiple PI we had down the stretch.

Defense did everything they possibly could to help the offense . I am down for getting on the defense for Mississippi state game, but if you are really trying to blame the defense for Tennessee and LSU ...

[AuburnEagle79 2,169]

Reading articles like this always make me feel somewhat sympathetic for Gus. He's gotta put it all together and win the games that we should win. It should be illegal to have this brutal of a schedule. I will be completely fine with 8-9 wins and building momentum with an experienced offense heading into 2020. 

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

Just now, AuburnEagle79 said:

Reading articles like this always make me feel somewhat sympathetic for Gus. He's gotta put it all together and win the games that we should win. It should be illegal to have this brutal of a schedule. I will be completely fine with 8-9 wins and building momentum with an experienced offense heading into 2020. 

[AuburnEagle79 2,169]

23 minutes ago, dyehardfanAU said:

Unfortunately, you are correct...

[DAG 33,997]

30 minutes ago, AuburnEagle79 said:

somewhat sympathetic for Gus

[WalkingCarpet 1,379]

23 minutes ago, AuburnEagle79 said:

Reading articles like this always make me feel somewhat sympathetic for Gus. He's gotta put it all together and win the games that we should win. It should be illegal to have this brutal of a schedule. I will be completely fine with 8-9 wins and building momentum with an experienced offense heading into 2020. 

If you want to fix scheduling they need to adopt this format. It preserves every major rivalry and the eight game schedule. Instead we're stuck with this imbalanced boondoggle because Alabama loves whipping Tennessee every year and the masochists at UT enjoy it. Our conference schedule is going to be absurd until Saban dies on the sideline (unlikely) or the NCAA decides to pay a visit to Athens (and then Georgia Southern goes on probation). We need to stop scheduling really really good teams OOC.. Stop playing Clemson, start playing Boston College. Don't play Washington and Oregon, play Arizona and Colorado. We're not going to be penalized for it because of how difficult the league is every year. Our upcoming series with Cal, Baylor, and UCLA are excellent decisions. 

[AuburnEagle79 2,169]

5 minutes ago, WalkingCarpet said:

If you want to fix scheduling they need to adopt this format. It preserves every major rivalry and the eight game schedule. Instead we're stuck with this imbalanced boondoggle because Alabama loves whipping Tennessee every year and the masochists at UT enjoy it. Our conference schedule is going to be absurd until Saban dies on the sideline (unlikely) or the NCAA decides to pay a visit to Athens (and then Georgia Southern goes on probation). We need to stop scheduling really really good teams OOC.. Stop playing Clemson, start playing Boston College. Don't play Washington and Oregon, play Arizona and Colorado. We're not going to be penalized for it because of how difficult the league is every year. Our upcoming series with Cal, Baylor, and UCLA are excellent decisions. 

I like everything about that setup. I would say it could be an issue when we have to play Alabama in back to back weeks for the title when we are their only loss, but once Saban leaves we will go back to beating them more often than not anyways.