2023 Record Prediction - May

[W.E.D 11,070]

5 minutes ago, gr82b4au said:

As great as Hugh has done making us competitive again, we have a long way to go. Adding PT was a big boost at QB. 

before all of the additions, I think we would win about three games. Now I am thinking we will win about six or seven games. Anything more than that would be awesome 

I think no matter what we had a 5 game floor.  The biggest issue is probably the jump from 5 to anything incrementally above is pretty large. Ark/Ole Miss/MSU/Aggies are all solid-ish and probably above their historical norms.  

[AuCivilEng1 11,045]

UMass / W (1-0) / 99%

Cal / W (2-0) / 75%

Samford / W (3-0) / 99%

Texas A&M / W (4-0) / 52%

Georgia / L (4-1) / 96%

LSU / L (4-2) / 50%

Ole Miss / W (5-2) / 70%

Mississippi State / W (6-2) / 80%

Vanderbilt / W (7-2) / 85%

Arkansas / W (8-2) / 55%

NMST / W (9-2) / 99%

Alabama / L (9-3) / 51%

 

Edited May 17, 2023 by AuCivilEng1

[I_M4_AU 8,048]

3 minutes ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

Vanderbilt / W (7-2) / 85%

Arkansas / W (7-3) / 55%

Is Arky a win or a loss?

[AuCivilEng1 11,045]

4 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

Is Arky a win or a loss?

Win but bama is loss. Changed the wrong things. Fixed.

Edited May 17, 2023 by AuCivilEng1

[I_M4_AU 8,048]

7 minutes ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

Arkansas / W (8-2) / 55%

NMST / W (8-3) / 99%

Opps

[AuCivilEng1 11,045]

Just now, I_M4_AU said:

Opps

Yea I had it all jacked up. It's good now. 9-3 finish. Lol

[KansasTiger 3,261]

7 minutes ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

Yea I had it all jacked up. It's good now. 9-3 finish. Lol

I thought you were an engineer??? Come on, man! 

[AuCivilEng1 11,045]

1 minute ago, KansasTiger said:

I thought you were an engineer??? Come on, man! 

I try to move faster than my brain can operate. That is the most engineer thing about me. 

[NWALA Tiger 3,535]

1 hour ago, W.E.D said:

Probably not unbeatable, but they probably have 3 to 4x the amount of draftable players on their 2 deep than we have.  the talent gap is going to outweigh us heavily 

It has the last 10 yrs, yet we have still won a few

[W.E.D 11,070]

3 minutes ago, NWALA Tiger said:

It has the last 10 yrs, yet we have still won a few

Eh, we had really good players or absurd luck 

• 2019 we scored how many pick 6s off a QB's first ever start?
• 2017 we had solid talent/QB on our roster
• 2013 don't think the talent gap was that wide
• 2010 Best QB ever trumps anything

[Son of A Tiger 570]

7-5

[gr82b4au 5,568]

1 hour ago, W.E.D said:

I think no matter what we had a 5 game floor.  The biggest issue is probably the jump from 5 to anything incrementally above is pretty large. Ark/Ole Miss/MSU/Aggies are all solid-ish and probably above their historical norms.  

I just think the product on the field without all of these 18 portal additions would have been so bad that we would have fielded a 3 win team this upcoming year. Thankfully we will never know. 

And I agree that the SEC West is ridiculous. 

Want to laugh? Go look at UGA’s schedule this year. I think we would win 9 games if we had that schedule. 

[JerryAU 1,694]

11 minutes ago, gr82b4au said:

I just think the product on the field without all of these 18 portal additions would have been so bad that we would have fielded a 3 win team this upcoming year. Thankfully we will never know. 

And I agree that the SEC West is ridiculous. 

Want to laugh? Go look at UGA’s schedule this year. I think we would win 9 games if we had that schedule. 

Their schedule is a flipping joke. 

I just saw On3's rankings by "unit" offense/defense and even with uga starting a new QB, their cumulative ranking is 1st among 30 teams.  

8 SEC teams scattered everywhere and 6 SEC teams that didn't make the list at all (UF/AU/Vandy/USC/MSU/UK).  

Edited May 17, 2023 by JerryAU

[W.E.D 11,070]

7 minutes ago, gr82b4au said:

I just think the product on the field without all of these 18 portal additions would have been so bad that we would have fielded a 3 win team this upcoming year. Thankfully we will never know. 

And I agree that the SEC West is ridiculous. 

Want to laugh? Go look at UGA’s schedule this year. I think we would win 9 games if we had that schedule. 

We'd beat Vandy and Cal with Ashford running for 200 & passing for 75yds.

[gr82b4au 5,568]

6 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

We'd beat Vandy and Cal with Ashford running for 200 & passing for 75yds.

Maybe… I just don’t think people realize how bad we were going to be. Glad we won’t find out  

I mean… Who would start on the OL without the portal guys? 

[W.E.D 11,070]

13 minutes ago, gr82b4au said:

Want to laugh? Go look at UGA’s schedule this year. I think we would win 9 games if we had that schedule. 

Eh...

We'd probably lose to UGA, Tenn.  Toss ups USC/Kentucky (good QB play) and Ole Miss.  They have just as weak of an OOC for us, UF being really awful makes their schedule look much worse than it really should be.  If UF was up to historicals and about as good as LSU, their schedule wouldn't be too bad.  It's def easier tho

[PoetTiger 1,901]

8-4….we upset either UGA, UA, TAMU,or LSU…

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 minute ago, gr82b4au said:

Maybe… I just don’t think people realize how bad we were going to be. Glad we won’t find out  

I mean… Who would start on the OL without the portal guys? 

Hypothetically....we probably would have gotten some portal guys, but yes we would be in much worse shaep.  Cal is really really really bad.  They might be worse than our 3 G5 opponents

[AUApostle 7,663]

If anyone wants to take a deep dive into next year's schedule, the Auburn Observer podcast from Monday (Episode 281) spent about an hour on each opponent, giving their thoughts on the strength of each team and our chances in each game.

[Zeek 16,660]

5 hours ago, bigbird said:

2 weeks later...

How do we all feel now?

The Schedule:

 

UMass - September 2nd

@ California - September 9th

Samford - September 16th

@ Texas A&M - September 23rd

Georgia - September 30th

 

BYE - October 7th

 

@ LSU - October 14th

Ole Miss - October 21st

Mississippi State - October 28th

@ Vanderbilt - November 4th

@ Arkansas - November 11th

New Mexico State - November 18th

Alabama - November 25th

I am still sitting at seven wins. Just need to see it on the field before I let myself get too excited.

[bigbird 60,580]

9 minutes ago, Zeek said:

I am still sitting at seven wins. Just need to see it on the field before I let myself get too excited.

Coming off a bye and most likely having been exposed a little by UGA, LSU is primed to be sniped IMO.  

[NWALA Tiger 3,535]

2 hours ago, W.E.D said:

Eh, we had really good players or absurd luck 

• 2019 we scored how many pick 6s off a QB's first ever start?
• 2017 we had solid talent/QB on our roster
• 2013 don't think the talent gap was that wide
• 2010 Best QB ever trumps anything

I feel our talent has been upgraded by Danny Hugh. There is still a gap. But, Bama is a 10 -2 team at best. To think they are unbeatable this yr at JHS, is fallacy.  We had them beat  with Harsin and Finley . All the while they had Bryce and Will Anderson. They have neither this yr.

[W.E.D 11,070]

13 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Coming off a bye and most likely having been exposed a little by UGA, LSU is primed to be sniped IMO.  

Back to Back victories in DV?  This ain't an Org coached disaster we're playing

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 minute ago, NWALA Tiger said:

I feel our talent has been upgraded by Danny Hugh. There is still a gap. But, Bama is a 10 -2 team at best. To think they are unbeatable this yr at JHS, is fallacy.  We had them beat  with Harsin and Finley . All the while they had Bryce and Will Anderson. They have neither this yr.

Bama has all their tough games at home.  If Sark wins in week 2, I'll start buying into Bama isn't a lock for 10/11 wins

[NWALA Tiger 3,535]

Just now, W.E.D said:

Bama has all their tough games at home.  If Sark wins in week 2, I'll start buying into Bama isn't a lock for 10/11 wins

The point was many were saying the Bama game was an automatic L.  I disagree, sure we may lose. But,  I don't think that's a given.