The Auburn carousel myth

[ScotsAU 1,331]

I’m sure we’ve all seen it between the Malzahn firing and the Harsin firing. Every once in a while the myth seems to pop back up in once place or another. But there’s a persistent idea that Auburn runs through coaches like tissues. 
 

I’d finally had enough of this, so I looked at the coach turnover frequencies for the SEC. Any time you see or hear someone start with this narrative, feel free to pull out this very telling data…Number of coaches for each SEC school since 2000:

UGA (3)

LSU (4)

Mizzou (4)

South Carolina (4)

Auburn (5)

Kentucky (5)

Bama (5/6; Note: Depending on whether you include Mike Price who was fired without ever actually coaching.)

Arkansas (6)

Ole Miss (6)

Tennessee (6)

TAMU(6)

Vandy (6)

Florida (7)

MSU (7)

 

Auburn is tied for 5th in terms of number of coaches in this century, which puts us into the top half. If we recycle coaches too much, so does Bama. Also, I think it is very important to consider the Harsin hire carefully. Harsin is arguably the worst coach in Auburn history, which is why he lasted an abysmal 1.5 years. Had we hired Freeze instead of Harsin in 2021, we’d likely be tied for 2nd right now with only 4 coaches in this century.
 

In reality, if any program should have a narrative about recycling coaches, it’s Florida. They are considered a high level program, and they are likely going to be looking for number 8 at the end of the next season, and will be alone at the top if they do.

Edited February 28 by ScotsAU

[aubcali 433]

Mike Price was hired — he counts.  

[ScotsAU 1,331]

6 minutes ago, aubcali said:

Mike Price was hired — he counts.  

I’d lean that way as well. But I could see a conversation playing out like this with a delusional Bama fan:

Bama fan: You barners can’t hold onto a coach more than 2 years.

Auburn fan: Actually, Auburn has only had 5 coaches this century. That’s 5th lowest in the conference, and is even below Bama. You’ve had 6 coaches.

Bama fan: 1, 2, 4, 3… wait. You’re counting Mike Price. He never even coached a game. 
 

Auburn fan: Okay bammer. Then you’re tied with us. Either way, we haven’t gone through more coaches than you have in this century.

[aubcali 433]

8 minutes ago, ScotsAU said:

I’d lean that way as well. But I could see a conversation playing out like this with a delusional Bama fan:

Bama fan: You barners can’t hold onto a coach more than 2 years.

Auburn fan: Actually, Auburn has only had 5 coaches this century. That’s 5th lowest in the conference, and is even below Bama. You’ve had 6 coaches.

Bama fan: 1, 2, 4, 3… wait. You’re counting Mike Price. He never even coached a game. 
 

Auburn fan: Okay bammer. Then you’re tied with us. Either way, we haven’t gone through more coaches than you have in this century.

Before broaching the topic with the Bama fan, lure them in with Austin Davis shouldn’t be listed as an Auburn OC since he didn’t coach a game.  After hearing the Bama fan passionately argue that he should count, nod in agreement and you bring up this conversation.   😎

[Carnell 592]

3 minutes ago, aubcali said:

Before broaching the topic with the Bama fan, lure them in with Austin Davis shouldn’t be listed as an Auburn OC since he didn’t coach a game.  After hearing the Bama fan passionately argue that he should count, nod in agreement and you bring up this conversation.   😎

Bama will not probably talk about Austin Davis but instead point to 2007 hiring of Saben saying they fixed their problem but Auburn has not.

[ScotsAU 1,331]

14 minutes ago, Carnell said:

Bama will not probably talk about Austin Davis but instead point to 2007 hiring of Saben saying they fixed their problem but Auburn has not.

Fixed their problem by swinging at a hire (that was kind of criticized when it happened due to Saban’s failure with Miami) and just happening to hire the best coach in their program’s history. Uh huh. Logical. 

[Carnell 592]

3 minutes ago, ScotsAU said:

Fixed their problem by swinging at a hire (that was kind of criticized when it happened due to Saban’s failure with Miami) and just happening to hire the best coach in their program’s history. Uh huh. Logical. 

 

4 minutes ago, ScotsAU said:

Fixed their problem by swinging at a hire (that was kind of criticized when it happened due to Saban’s failure with Miami) and just happening to hire the best coach in their program’s history. Uh huh. Logical. 

You forget about his successes at LSU and he got MSU to beating Michigan a few times as well.  In addition, he was a good DC with the Cleveland Browns.  I am not sure what you mean by swinging at a hire. If you mean they just stumbled by accident and got him you are wrong.  Mal Moore told them he would get a good coach if they opened their wallets and he actively pursued Saben.

[aucanucktiger 1,794]

4 minutes ago, Carnell said:

 

You forget about his successes at LSU and he got MSU to beating Michigan a few times as well.  In addition, he was a good DC with the Cleveland Browns.  I am not sure what you mean by swinging at a hire. If you mean they just stumbled by accident and got him you are wrong.  Mal Moore told them he would get a good coach if they opened their wallets and he actively pursued Saben.

Swing: Rich Rodriguez was Bama's first choice. When he told ole Mal to go pound sand (miss), plan B Saban emerged. Lucky.

[ScotsAU 1,331]

41 minutes ago, Carnell said:

 

You forget about his successes at LSU and he got MSU to beating Michigan a few times as well.  In addition, he was a good DC with the Cleveland Browns.  I am not sure what you mean by swinging at a hire. If you mean they just stumbled by accident and got him you are wrong.  Mal Moore told them he would get a good coach if they opened their wallets and he actively pursued Saben.

Rich Rodriguez was their first choice. When he turned them down, they went for Saban. A lot of people expected him to have some success because of what he did at LSU. There were also a lot of people laughing. Bama paid Saban what was at the time an insane amount of money even though he had spent his most recent tenure failing badly in the NFL. It was more of a controversial hire than you are remembering. Especially after his first season when they went 7-6 and lost to La Monroe… Not everyone was sold on Saban being a quality hire from the start. 
 

But that’s a little off topic anyway. The point I’m making is that their coaching searches are just as much of a crapshoot as ours. There was some controversy about whether Bama overpaid for Saban. That turned out to be wrong. But it was in question at the time. DeBoer could turn out to be a good coach for Bama. But you can’t say the DeBoer hire is a better hire on paper than us hiring Freeze. Freeze showed that he could win in this league with Ole Miss’s limited resources, and he has had a history with building success out of messes. DeBoer has yet to show that he can win at a a power 5 program with any sustained success. His recruiting classes in Washington were pretty meh. He’s also far from a sure thing hire. My point isn’t that we’ve hired better than Bama. My point is that they have not done any better at consistently making hires than we have, nor really has any other team aside from maybe Georgia. 

Edited February 28 by ScotsAU

[hikerdns 52]

what are these numbers since 2010?

[ScotsAU 1,331]

20 minutes ago, hikerdns said:

what are these numbers since 2010?

Not all that different honestly. Auburn slips down a little. But not much. That’s an odd cut point though given that this period was quite tumultuous with coaches getting canned in the 1-3 years previous.  Either way, even in that period, there’s certainly no evidence that Auburn is a school that just throws coaches away left and right. 2/3 of our coaches during this period again lasted to at least average tenure. Harsin is the lone exception, which again… worst coach in Auburn history.
 

UGA (2)

Kentucky(2)

Bama (2)

LSU (3)

Mizzou (3)

South Carolina (3)

Auburn (4)

Ole Miss (4)

Tennessee (4)

TAMU(4)

Vandy (4)

Florida (5)

MSU (5)

Arkansas (5)

 

Again, if there is a school with a coach fluidity issue, this points to Florida being the most fluid with coaches given their money and resources. MSU and Arky have limitations that prevent them from getting or retaining elite coaches. But Florida doesn’t have that problem.

 

Theres a phrase we use in the statistics world… regression to the mean. The more you measure something that can be measured with error, the more you see a true average emerge. Since 2010, Bama and Kentucky had their best coach, and we had our worst. So zooming in on such a limited set of years is essentially allowing the outliers to dictate things.

How much does the story change if the Harsin years had not happened? Those numbers would   actually be quite good.

Edited February 28 by ScotsAU

[gr82be 14,425]

2 hours ago, ScotsAU said:

Auburn fan: Okay bammer. Then you’re tied with us. Either way, we haven’t gone through more coaches than you have in this century.

Good to know. It felt like Saban had been there for at least a century himself. 

[JerryAU 1,659]

IMO, by Auburn standards we've gone through coaches like a carousel ride. 

It feels like we've had no consistency for nearly 10 yrs with the dozens of coordinators that have flown through the doors.  Lack of consistency and stability lead to the piss poor coaching and very mediocre W/L record Auburn has had.  Historically speaking, the last 5 yrs have been a roller coaster and it's shown on the field.  

It's like it's too much to ask that football be able to retain an offensive coordinator for 2 yrs straight around here.  

[Mikey 16,599]

9 minutes ago, JerryAU said:

with the dozens of coordinators that have flown through the doors. 

Hit the nail on the head.

[ScotsAU 1,331]

11 minutes ago, JerryAU said:

IMO, by Auburn standards we've gone through coaches like a carousel ride. 

It feels like we've had no consistency for nearly 10 yrs with the dozens of coordinators that have flown through the doors.  Lack of consistency and stability lead to the piss poor coaching and very mediocre W/L record Auburn has had.  Historically speaking, the last 5 yrs have been a roller coaster and it's shown on the field.  

It's like it's too much to ask that football be able to retain an offensive coordinator for 2 yrs straight around here.  

Kind of my point. It isn’t just Auburn either. I keep using Bama here. But it is an easy example to pick on. Who have their OC’s and DC’a been since Smart and Kiffin? They haven’t had consistency there either if you actually look at the data. 

Bama OCs since Kiffin:

- Sark

- Daboll

-Locksley

- Sarkesian

-Obrien

-Rees

 

Auburn OCs since Kiffin at Bama:

- Lindsey

- Dillingham

- Morris

- Bobo

- Potato boy

- Montgomery

Same number of OCs.

For DC, we both have had 4 different coordinators over that same stretch. Auburn- Steele, Mason, Potato boy, Roberts. Bama- Pruitt, Lupoi, Golding, Steele

 

Edited February 28 by ScotsAU

[Carnell 592]

1 hour ago, aucanucktiger said:

Swing: Rich Rodriguez was Bama's first choice. When he told ole Mal to go pound sand (miss), plan B Saban emerged. Lucky.

 

1 minute ago, Mikey said:

Hit the nail on the head.

 

1 minute ago, Mikey said:

Hit the nail on the head.

Rich rod was not the first choice of Moore, Drummond and some of the money bags who was operating behind the scene to get Saben.  Rich rod did not turn bama down, the money bags said they were not going to fund his hire.

[ScotsAU 1,331]

Just now, Carnell said:

 

 

Rich rod was not the first choice of Moore, Drummond and some of the money bags who was operating behind the scene to get Saben.  Rich rod did not turn bama down, the money bags said they were not going to fund his hire.

Again, missing the point. The hired before Saban were meh. The hire after Saban was meh. You can’t just look at one hire and say Bama figured it out. You need more data points than that.
 

But just to put this to bed, here’s what ESPN has to say about it:

 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28993300/how-one-rich-rodriguez-decision-changed-alabama-michigan-college-football

[Mikey 16,599]

1 hour ago, Carnell said:

 

 

Rich rod was not the first choice of Moore, Drummond and some of the money bags who was operating behind the scene to get Saben.  Rich rod did not turn bama down, the money bags said they were not going to fund his hire.

My "hit the nail on the head" comment was agreeing with much of our problems being caused by the incessant turnover of coordinators. I didn't comment on bammer's situation.

[Carnell 592]

3 hours ago, ScotsAU said:

Rich Rodriguez was their first choice. When he turned them down, they went for Saban. A lot of people expected him to have some success because of what he did at LSU. There were also a lot of people laughing. Bama paid Saban what was at the time an insane amount of money even though he had spent his most recent tenure failing badly in the NFL. It was more of a controversial hire than you are remembering. Especially after his first season when they went 7-6 and lost to La Monroe… Not everyone was sold on Saban being a quality hire from the start. 
 

But that’s a little off topic anyway. The point I’m making is that their coaching searches are just as much of a crapshoot as ours. There was some controversy about whether Bama overpaid for Saban. That turned out to be wrong. But it was in question at the time. DeBoer could turn out to be a good coach for Bama. But you can’t say the DeBoer hire is a better hire on paper than us hiring Freeze. Freeze showed that he could win in this league with Ole Miss’s limited resources, and he has had a history with building success out of messes. DeBoer has yet to show that he can win at a a power 5 program with any sustained success. His recruiting classes in Washington were pretty meh. He’s also far from a sure thing hire. My point isn’t that we’ve hired better than Bama. My point is that they have not done any better at consistently making hires than we have, nor really has any other team aside from maybe Georgia. 

Overpaid for those SEC and NCs.  Why is the DeBoer meh.  Shouldn't you give him a few years to assess his success or lack there of.  

 

[aubaseball 2,609]

7 hours ago, Carnell said:

 

You forget about his successes at LSU and he got MSU to beating Michigan a few times as well.  In addition, he was a good DC with the Cleveland Browns.  I am not sure what you mean by swinging at a hire. If you mean they just stumbled by accident and got him you are wrong.  Mal Moore told them he would get a good coach if they opened their wallets and he actively pursued Saben.

Only after Rich Rod back out of the job.  Moore went after Rich Rod and he agreed to be the coach.   On his way to sign the deal, he changed his mind.   

[TeamZero77 1,784]

55 minutes ago, aubaseball said:

Only after Rich Rod back out of the job.  Moore went after Rich Rod and he agreed to be the coach.   On his way to sign the deal, he changed his mind.   

Rich Rodriguez wanted the Alabama job and had actually agreed to it but then at the last minute his wife Rita Rodriguez said she didn't want to live in Tuscaloosa so Rich turned it down. I remember when Alabama fans had shirts made up after their first Natty in 2009 with Saban and the shirts said "Thank You Rita Rodriguez" because her not wanting to live in Tuscaloosa allowed Bama to hire Saban and Rich Rodriguez went to Michigan instead and was a dumpster fire of a hire. The funny thing is Rich and Rita Rodriguez both live in Alabama now and he coaches Jax St. 

I watched a special on SEC Network about Mal Moore and he told exactly how the Saban hire went down. Mal was told by higher up's to "go talk to Saban at his home in Florida and don't come back to Tuscaloosa without him or you're fired." They pretty much gave Mal a blank check to go get Saban. People often forget that Mal Moore was a pretty bad AD until Saban got hired.

What's wild is Mal Moore sat in the Saban's living room and they agreed to a deal to be the next Alabama head coach. Nick Saban said the very next day Wayne Huizenga, who was owner of the Dolphins and Joe Bailey who was a vice chairman of the Dolphins both sat on the same sofa that Mal Moore had sat on the day before but they didn't know that. Nick and Terri Saban kind of blindsided Huizenga and Bailey with the news they were going to Tuscaloosa. Kinda s***ty but that's business I guess.

[TeamZero77 1,784]

6 hours ago, ScotsAU said:

Kind of my point. It isn’t just Auburn either. I keep using Bama here. But it is an easy example to pick on. Who have their OC’s and DC’a been since Smart and Kiffin? They haven’t had consistency there either if you actually look at the data. 

Bama OCs since Kiffin:

- Sark

- Daboll

-Locksley

- Sarkesian

-Obrien

-Rees

 

Auburn OCs since Kiffin at Bama:

- Lindsey

- Dillingham

- Morris

- Bobo

- Potato boy

- Montgomery

Same number of OCs.

For DC, we both have had 4 different coordinators over that same stretch. Auburn- Steele, Mason, Potato boy, Roberts. Bama- Pruitt, Lupoi, Golding, Steele

 

The thing is that Saban went through alot of coordinators at Alabama because they were getting head coaching jobs and leaving. Auburn has went through a ton of coordinators because we've been terrible and fire them. Big difference 

[ScotsAU 1,331]

1 hour ago, TeamZero77 said:

The thing is that Saban went through alot of coordinators at Alabama because they were getting head coaching jobs and leaving. Auburn has went through a ton of coordinators because we've been terrible and fire them. Big difference 

5 of the 6 Auburn OCs on this list have been head coaches. Chip Lindsey literally left Auburn for a head coach job. Dillingham is now the head coach for Arizona State. 
 

And before you say “their coaches have been more successful,” Rees has never been a head coach, O’Brien failed as a head coach, Danilo is currently 5-19 in his second year, and Locksley has gotten no offers outside of Maryland. Only Sark has really been successful off their list. 

Edited February 29 by ScotsAU

[GreenTiger 1,006]

The revolving door of coordinators seems more like a CFB issue more than an Auburn issue IMO. If you win you loose coordinators to better jobs if you loose then you loose coordinators to cheaper buy outs. 

[aubaseball 2,609]

7 hours ago, ScotsAU said:

5 of the 6 Auburn OCs on this list have been head coaches. Chip Lindsey literally left Auburn for a head coach job. Dillingham is now the head coach for Arizona State. 
 

And before you say “their coaches have been more successful,” Rees has never been a head coach, O’Brien failed as a head coach, Danilo is currently 5-19 in his second year, and Locksley has gotten no offers outside of Maryland. Only Sark has really been successful off their list. 

Don’t forget Kiffin