How to pick a Champion

[AU! 0]

Ignore this if someone's already mentioned it but I found this article interesting.

The only thing apparently keeping Auburn from a chance at a National championship is Kodi Burns being a sophomore (instead of a Junior or Senior). However, it seems some things were altered to keep Alabama in it (i.e. win at least 7 games in the previous season, which only two champs have done; return at least six starters to a top 40 defense: alabama is returning the least with six to the lowest ranked defense of all the teams mentioned)

If you wanna skip all the reading, the six teams with a shot at the title next year are Wake Forest, Rutgers, Kansas, USC, spuat, and UGA.

I suppose that leaves USC and UGA in the MNC.

With a square jaw, prominent nose and jutting chin, Rich Rodriguez has a strong profile.

But his Michigan Wolverines do not.

Alabama coach Nick Saban also has a strong profile. And, surprisingly enough, so does his team.

The act of profiling – analyzing data to ascertain distinctive features in a given subject – can be a useful tool to identify job candidates, blood types or customers, but it's never a guarantee for success.

Despite an up-and-down 2007, Nick Saban's Crimson Tide have some history on their side in 2008.

For example, a college-educated married male, age 30-40, who earns between $75,000 and $100,000 annually and enjoys outdoor sports may not necessarily be interested in purchasing a new set of golf clubs. Maybe he prefers mountain climbing.

So it is with profiling a potential national champion.

Even an experienced team coming off a successful season and having an advantageous schedule can't be counted on to win a championship because so many immeasurable factors – avoidance of injuries, weather, unproven players coming through, the benefit of a controversial call – come into play.

Still, the 10 national champions in the BCS era share many common characteristics. With that in mind, a five-step plan was devised to determine what teams for the 2008 season most fit the profile of the national champion.

Each of the 10 BCS national champions played in one of the "big six" conferences and posted at least seven victories the year before their championship season. In addition, in half the cases the national champion was coming off a bowl victory. In fact, the past four national champions won their preceding bowl game: '07 champ LSU over Notre Dame 41-14 in the Sugar Bowl, '06 champ Florida over Iowa 31-24 in the Outback Bowl, '05 champ Texas over Michigan 38-37 in the Rose Bowl and '04 champ USC over Michigan in the Rose Bowl. The other champion to win its preceding bowl game was '01 Miami, which defeated Florida 37-20 in the Sugar Bowl.

Another apparent key factor in winning a national championship is having a quarterback who has some experience as a starter. For instance, LSU quarterback Matt Flynn hadn't been considered a starter before '07, but he did start the 2005 Peach Bowl in place of injured JaMarcus Russell.

Tennessee's Tee Martin, who had backed up Peyton Manning, is the only quarterback of a BCS national champion who had no prior starting experience.

Finally, nine returned at least six starters from a defensive unit that ranked among the nation's top 40 in total defense the preceding season.

Only '98 champion Tennessee, with four starters returning from the 32nd-ranked defense of 1997, had fewer than half of its defensive starters back

PROFILE OF A CHAMPION

Trends during the BCS era indicate that the 2008 national champ will be a team that meets the following criteria:

1. Play in a "BCS conference"

2. Post at least seven victories the previous season

3. Win the previous season's bowl

4. Have an upperclassman quarterback with starting experience

5. Return at least six starters from a top-40 defense

Several teams met four of the five elements of the profile, including Oklahoma, LSU, Texas and West Virginia among others, so they obviously cannot be ignored as 2008 national championship contenders. But there are six teams that fit all the criteria.

Here's a step-by-step profile for the 2008 champion.

1. Play in a "BCS conference": No team from Conference USA, the Mid-American, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt or the Western Athletic has won a BCS national championship. Neither has an independent, though Notre Dame certainly has been in the championship picture, especially in 2005 and '06. History shows that the 2008 champion will come from one of the six major conferences, so only consider the 57 teams in the six major conferences plus Notre Dame.

Fitting the profile: Teams from the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, ACC, Pac-10, Big East and Notre Dame.

2. Post at least seven victories the previous season: Coming off a strong season is an obvious indicator that a team may be ready to contend for a championship. Six of the 10 BCS national champions managed double-digit victory totals the season before they won their title. Two – Oklahoma in 2000 and Ohio State in 2002 – were 7-5 the previous season. Consider all the BCS teams that posted winning records in 2007, but put a little more emphasis on teams that had at least 10 wins. In fact, six champions had at least 11 victories before their championship year, including three of the past four (LSU, Texas and USC).

Still fitting the profile: ACC: Boston College (11-3), Clemson (9-4); Florida State (7-6); Georgia Tech (7-6); Virginia (9-4), Virginia Tech (11-3), Wake Forest (9-4); Big East: Cincinnati (10-3), Connecticut (9-4), Rutgers (8-5), South Florida (9-4), West Virginia (11-2); Big 12: Kansas (12-1); Missouri (12-2); Oklahoma (11-3); Oklahoma State (7-6); Texas (10-3); Texas A&M (7-6); Texas Tech (9-4); Big Ten: Illinois (9-4); Michigan (9-4); Ohio State (11-2); Penn State (9-4); Purdue (8-5); Indiana (7-6); Michigan State (7-6); Pac-10: Arizona State (10-3); California (7-6); Oregon (9-4); Oregon State (9-4); USC (11-2); SEC: Alabama (7-6); Arkansas (8-5); Auburn (9-4); Georgia (11-2); Florida (9-4); Kentucky (8-5); LSU (12-2); Mississippi State (8-5); Tennessee (10-4).

Todd Reesing's experience could be key for Kansas.

3. Win the previous season's bowl: Perhaps a bit surprisingly, only half the BCS champs won their preceding bowl game, but the past four champions did. So that trend suggests next season's national champion will be a team that won its bowl this season.

Still fitting the profile: ACC – Boston College, Wake Forest; Big East – Cincinnati, Rutgers, West Virginia; Big 12 – Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech; Big Ten – Michigan, Penn State, Purdue; Pac-10 -- California, Oregon, Oregon State; USC; SEC – Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee

4. Have a junior or senior quarterback with at least some starting experience: The quarterbacks of all the national champions were juniors or seniors, and 90 percent had at least some starting experience. Matt Flynn, this year's LSU quarterback, was the backup to JaMarcus Russell in 2006, but he had started the 2005 Peach Bowl victory over Miami. The only BCS national champion quarterback without previous starting experience was Tennessee's Tee Martin. While a quarterback with starting experience isn't required, it certainly provides a big boost.

Still fitting the profile: ACC – Wake Forest (Riley Skinner), Big East – Cincinnati (Ben Mauk or Dustin Grutza) , Rutgers (Mike Teel), West Virginia (Pat White, Big 12 – Kansas (Todd Reesing), Oklahoma State (Zac Robinson), Missouri ([Chase Daniel), Texas (Colt McCoy), Texas Tech (Graham Harrell), Big Ten – Purdue (Curtis Painter), Pac-10: California (Nate Longshore), Oregon State (Sean Canfield), USC (Mark Sanchez), SEC: Alabama (John Parker Wilson), Georgia (Matthew Stafford), LSU (Ryan Perrilloux), Tennessee (Jonathan Crompton).

5. Return at least six starters from a top-40 defense: Nine of the 10 BCS champions returned at least six defensive starters, and seven teams returned at least seven starters. Only Tennessee, which had four returning defensive starters in 1998, had fewer than six. Eight of those teams ranked at least 39th the year before their championship season (the 1997 and '98 defensive rankings were unavailable). Therefore, it would seem there is a 90 percent chance the 2008 national championship team will return at least six starters from a 2007 unit which ranked 40th or better in total defense.

Still fitting the profile: ACC --Wake Forest (seven starters back from 27th ranked unit); Big East – Rutgers (eight starters back from 17th ranked unit), Big 12 – Kansas (nine starters back from 12th ranked unit), Pac-10: USC (seven starters back from second ranked unit), SEC – Alabama (six starters back from 31st ranked unit), Georgia (nine starters back from 14th ranked unit).

So according to these criteria, the Demon Deacons, Scarlet Knights, Jayhawks, Trojans, Crimson Tide and Bulldogs are the teams to watch next season.

Of course, more teams than those that fit the national championship profile can aspire to win it all in 2008. It's not out of the question for a team that had a losing record in '07 to bounce back and win a national title, though that would indeed be a high mountain to climb.

[abrnfanatc 6]

WOW, that Alabama v. Rutgers MNC game sure will be exciting for the folks in Pasadena...

[Legionfield 0]

Ignore this if someone's already mentioned it but I found this article interesting.

The only thing apparently keeping Auburn from a chance at a National championship is Kodi Burns being a sophomore (instead of a Junior or Senior). However, it seems some things were altered to keep Alabama in it (i.e. win at least 7 games in the previous season, which only two champs have done; return at least six starters to a top 40 defense: alabama is returning the least with six to the lowest ranked defense of all the teams mentioned)

If you wanna skip all the reading, the six teams with a shot at the title next year are Wake Forest, Rutgers, Kansas, USC, spuat, and UGA.

I suppose that leaves USC and UGA in the MNC.

With a square jaw, prominent nose and jutting chin, Rich Rodriguez has a strong profile.

But his Michigan Wolverines do not.

Alabama coach Nick Saban also has a strong profile. And, surprisingly enough, so does his team.

The act of profiling – analyzing data to ascertain distinctive features in a given subject – can be a useful tool to identify job candidates, blood types or customers, but it's never a guarantee for success.

Despite an up-and-down 2007, Nick Saban's Crimson Tide have some history on their side in 2008.

For example, a college-educated married male, age 30-40, who earns between $75,000 and $100,000 annually and enjoys outdoor sports may not necessarily be interested in purchasing a new set of golf clubs. Maybe he prefers mountain climbing.

So it is with profiling a potential national champion.

Even an experienced team coming off a successful season and having an advantageous schedule can't be counted on to win a championship because so many immeasurable factors – avoidance of injuries, weather, unproven players coming through, the benefit of a controversial call – come into play.

Still, the 10 national champions in the BCS era share many common characteristics. With that in mind, a five-step plan was devised to determine what teams for the 2008 season most fit the profile of the national champion.

Each of the 10 BCS national champions played in one of the "big six" conferences and posted at least seven victories the year before their championship season. In addition, in half the cases the national champion was coming off a bowl victory. In fact, the past four national champions won their preceding bowl game: '07 champ LSU over Notre Dame 41-14 in the Sugar Bowl, '06 champ Florida over Iowa 31-24 in the Outback Bowl, '05 champ Texas over Michigan 38-37 in the Rose Bowl and '04 champ USC over Michigan in the Rose Bowl. The other champion to win its preceding bowl game was '01 Miami, which defeated Florida 37-20 in the Sugar Bowl.

Another apparent key factor in winning a national championship is having a quarterback who has some experience as a starter. For instance, LSU quarterback Matt Flynn hadn't been considered a starter before '07, but he did start the 2005 Peach Bowl in place of injured JaMarcus Russell.

Tennessee's Tee Martin, who had backed up Peyton Manning, is the only quarterback of a BCS national champion who had no prior starting experience.

Finally, nine returned at least six starters from a defensive unit that ranked among the nation's top 40 in total defense the preceding season.

Only '98 champion Tennessee, with four starters returning from the 32nd-ranked defense of 1997, had fewer than half of its defensive starters back

PROFILE OF A CHAMPION

Trends during the BCS era indicate that the 2008 national champ will be a team that meets the following criteria:

1. Play in a "BCS conference"

2. Post at least seven victories the previous season

3. Win the previous season's bowl

4. Have an upperclassman quarterback with starting experience

5. Return at least six starters from a top-40 defense

Several teams met four of the five elements of the profile, including Oklahoma, LSU, Texas and West Virginia among others, so they obviously cannot be ignored as 2008 national championship contenders. But there are six teams that fit all the criteria.

Here's a step-by-step profile for the 2008 champion.

1. Play in a "BCS conference": No team from Conference USA, the Mid-American, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt or the Western Athletic has won a BCS national championship. Neither has an independent, though Notre Dame certainly has been in the championship picture, especially in 2005 and '06. History shows that the 2008 champion will come from one of the six major conferences, so only consider the 57 teams in the six major conferences plus Notre Dame.

Fitting the profile: Teams from the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, ACC, Pac-10, Big East and Notre Dame.

2. Post at least seven victories the previous season: Coming off a strong season is an obvious indicator that a team may be ready to contend for a championship. Six of the 10 BCS national champions managed double-digit victory totals the season before they won their title. Two – Oklahoma in 2000 and Ohio State in 2002 – were 7-5 the previous season. Consider all the BCS teams that posted winning records in 2007, but put a little more emphasis on teams that had at least 10 wins. In fact, six champions had at least 11 victories before their championship year, including three of the past four (LSU, Texas and USC).

Still fitting the profile: ACC: Boston College (11-3), Clemson (9-4); Florida State (7-6); Georgia Tech (7-6); Virginia (9-4), Virginia Tech (11-3), Wake Forest (9-4); Big East: Cincinnati (10-3), Connecticut (9-4), Rutgers (8-5), South Florida (9-4), West Virginia (11-2); Big 12: Kansas (12-1); Missouri (12-2); Oklahoma (11-3); Oklahoma State (7-6); Texas (10-3); Texas A&M (7-6); Texas Tech (9-4); Big Ten: Illinois (9-4); Michigan (9-4); Ohio State (11-2); Penn State (9-4); Purdue (8-5); Indiana (7-6); Michigan State (7-6); Pac-10: Arizona State (10-3); California (7-6); Oregon (9-4); Oregon State (9-4); USC (11-2); SEC: Alabama (7-6); Arkansas (8-5); Auburn (9-4); Georgia (11-2); Florida (9-4); Kentucky (8-5); LSU (12-2); Mississippi State (8-5); Tennessee (10-4).

Todd Reesing's experience could be key for Kansas.

3. Win the previous season's bowl: Perhaps a bit surprisingly, only half the BCS champs won their preceding bowl game, but the past four champions did. So that trend suggests next season's national champion will be a team that won its bowl this season.

Still fitting the profile: ACC – Boston College, Wake Forest; Big East – Cincinnati, Rutgers, West Virginia; Big 12 – Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech; Big Ten – Michigan, Penn State, Purdue; Pac-10 -- California, Oregon, Oregon State; USC; SEC – Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee

4. Have a junior or senior quarterback with at least some starting experience: The quarterbacks of all the national champions were juniors or seniors, and 90 percent had at least some starting experience. Matt Flynn, this year's LSU quarterback, was the backup to JaMarcus Russell in 2006, but he had started the 2005 Peach Bowl victory over Miami. The only BCS national champion quarterback without previous starting experience was Tennessee's Tee Martin. While a quarterback with starting experience isn't required, it certainly provides a big boost.

Still fitting the profile: ACC – Wake Forest (Riley Skinner), Big East – Cincinnati (Ben Mauk or Dustin Grutza) , Rutgers (Mike Teel), West Virginia (Pat White, Big 12 – Kansas (Todd Reesing), Oklahoma State (Zac Robinson), Missouri ([Chase Daniel), Texas (Colt McCoy), Texas Tech (Graham Harrell), Big Ten – Purdue (Curtis Painter), Pac-10: California (Nate Longshore), Oregon State (Sean Canfield), USC (Mark Sanchez), SEC: Alabama (John Parker Wilson), Georgia (Matthew Stafford), LSU (Ryan Perrilloux), Tennessee (Jonathan Crompton).

5. Return at least six starters from a top-40 defense: Nine of the 10 BCS champions returned at least six defensive starters, and seven teams returned at least seven starters. Only Tennessee, which had four returning defensive starters in 1998, had fewer than six. Eight of those teams ranked at least 39th the year before their championship season (the 1997 and '98 defensive rankings were unavailable). Therefore, it would seem there is a 90 percent chance the 2008 national championship team will return at least six starters from a 2007 unit which ranked 40th or better in total defense.

Still fitting the profile: ACC --Wake Forest (seven starters back from 27th ranked unit); Big East – Rutgers (eight starters back from 17th ranked unit), Big 12 – Kansas (nine starters back from 12th ranked unit), Pac-10: USC (seven starters back from second ranked unit), SEC – Alabama (six starters back from 31st ranked unit), Georgia (nine starters back from 14th ranked unit).

So according to these criteria, the Demon Deacons, Scarlet Knights, Jayhawks, Trojans, Crimson Tide and Bulldogs are the teams to watch next season.

Of course, more teams than those that fit the national championship profile can aspire to win it all in 2008. It's not out of the question for a team that had a losing record in '07 to bounce back and win a national title, though that would indeed be a high mountain to climb.

Wow......the process is starting to work....

[AUslug 1]

The process of delusion has been working very well over the last decade in Tuscaloosa, Legion.

[ssgaufan 0]

Yeah boy, those 7 win seasons are spring boards to greatness. Whoever wrote this garbage needs to be taken out back and have some sense beat into him or her.

When I started reading this, I knew that the bammers would wet their undies over this, and legionfield didn't wait too long to confirm it. Legion, do you really think that JPW is good enough to take you to the MNC? I don't, and that's not because he is bama's QB, it's because I've watched him play enough over the last two years to know that his best play is the "run as fast as you can, straight down the sideline, and I'm gonna throw it as hard as I can, and we'll see if it works this time."

[abrnfanatc 6]

The process of delusion has been working very well over the last decade quarter century in Tuscaloosa, Legion.

You're welcome.

[Legionfield 0]

Yeah boy, those 7 win seasons are spring boards to greatness. Whoever wrote this garbage needs to be taken out back and have some sense beat into him or her.

When I started reading this, I knew that the bammers would wet their undies over this, and legionfield didn't wait too long to confirm it. Legion, do you really think that JPW is good enough to take you to the MNC? I don't, and that's not because he is bama's QB, it's because I've watched him play enough over the last two years to know that his best play is the "run as fast as you can, straight down the sideline, and I'm gonna throw it as hard as I can, and we'll see if it works this time."

Oklahoma was 7-5 in 99 and 13-0 in 2000. You were saying????

[AURainman 6]

Yeah, that criteria about at least 7 wins is bunk. He says 6/10 champions had 11 wins, yet the trend was dropped to encapsulate the other teams who lost an extra 4 games? I know he's trying to compensate for Ohio State and Oklahoma, but those can be considered outliers, hardly trend setters.

[CircleDrill 178]

Oklahoma was 7-5 in 99 and 13-0 in 2000. You were saying????

You are not Oklahoma. You are Ole Miss.

When is the last time Oklahoma lost to cupcake like ULM? Hell, when is the last time Ole Miss lost to a cupcake like ULM?

I encourage all of you bammers to take articles like this to heart. That way when you lose another 4-5 SEC games next year, ending with being destroyed by Auburn, it will be that much funnier to continue to laugh at you.

[Legionfield 0]

Oklahoma was 7-5 in 99 and 13-0 in 2000. You were saying????

You are not Oklahoma. You are Ole Miss.

And you will always be Auburn...... "The People's Champion"..... In all seriousness, we are very similar to Oklahoma in '99. They were just coming out of a dark period in their history, due to probation. They had just hired a great coach in Stoops. They started to pull in top recruiting classes. They went on to be a dynasty. I like the direction this is headed.......

[CircleDrill 178]

Oklahoma was 7-5 in 99 and 13-0 in 2000. You were saying????

You are not Oklahoma. You are Ole Miss.

And you will always be Auburn...... "The People's Champion".....

That is in the past. We are talking about right NOW. Oh wait....you don't understand concepts like this.

[Legionfield 0]

Oklahoma was 7-5 in 99 and 13-0 in 2000. You were saying????

You are not Oklahoma. You are Ole Miss.

And you will always be Auburn...... "The People's Champion".....

That is in the past. We are talking about right NOW. Oh wait....you don't understand concepts like this.

We are coming.......

[CircleDrill 178]

We are coming.......

What world are you living in? You can't be serious. Alabama football is a joke. You are to college football what AOL is to internet service providers.... you have millions of ignorant followers who swear you are the best thing ever, when all you are doing is just sitting there and talking about how cool AOL used to be back before the internet.

Give me a freakin break.

[Legionfield 0]

We are coming.......

What world are you living in? You can't be serious. Alabama football is a joke. You are to college football what AOL is to internet service providers.... you have millions of ignorant followers who swear you are the best thing ever, when all you are doing is just sitting there and talking about how cool AOL used to be back before the internet.

Give me a freakin break.

Check out recruiting....it is a start. If you do not think so, you are a moron.

[abrnfanatc 6]

We are coming.......

What world are you living in? You can't be serious. Alabama football is a joke. You are to college football what AOL is to internet service providers.... you have millions of ignorant followers who swear you are the best thing ever, when all you are doing is just sitting there and talking about how cool AOL used to be back before the internet.

Give me a freakin break.

Check out recruiting....it is a start. If you do not think so, you are a moron.

Many of you guys do not realize that the start is a very long way from the finish.

[TigerOne 1,152]

Oklahoma was 7-5 in 99 and 13-0 in 2000. You were saying????

You are not Oklahoma. You are Ole Miss.

And you will always be Auburn...... "The People's Champion".....

That is in the past. We are talking about right NOW. Oh wait....you don't understand concepts like this.

We are coming.......

and it took less than a minute

[abrnfanatc 6]

I really gotta give you guys some credit here. Not once have I heard the word tradition or twelve in your arguements. Maybe there is hope for you after all.

[Legionfield 0]

I really gotta give you guys some credit here. Not once have I heard the word tradition or twelve in your arguements. Maybe there is hope for you after all.

I am the new bammer........

[SupperClub 0]

I am the new bammer........

Arrogant and blindly optimistic....just like the old bammer.

[Legionfield 0]

I am the new bammer........

Arrogant and blindly optimistic....just like the old bammer.

How is it blind optimism?? I am baseing my optimism on the fact that we are recruiting exceptionally well. Recruiting is the lifeblood of any program. Great players win games.......just look at Mike Dubose in '99. Get the players and the wins will come. It is not rocket science.......

[mcgufcm 4,107]

I won't tear down your optimism. Here's what I will say: almost every single one of national champions had top flight running games with at least one big time college back (UF is the only one that doesn't fit the mold). That is a GAPING hole for Alabama. On top of that, I would argue that each of those teams had QBs that weren't lifelong losers (again Chris Leak is the only guy that comes to mind that didn't win, win, and win some more).

You know the team you remind me the most of? 2007 Auburn. We fit all of their criteria (in the SEC, top flight defense with returners, Brandon was a senior, bowl win, etc.), but we weren't a national title contender unless you were demented. Same for you guys. AT BEST, you guys are the 6th most talented team in the SEC (UF, UGA, AU, LSU, UT are all well ahead in terms of talent). At worst, you're playing catch-up to Arkansas and South Carolina for on-field talent as well. Throw in the FACT that MSU is fielding a team on par with you... it's too large a hill to climb.

I had this conversation with BG before last season. If you look at the schedule, there are four games (at UGA, at UT, at LSU, vs. Auburn) were it would be a big time upset (based on the players) for you to win. There are another two where the talent is level (vs. Arkansas, vs. MSU - BG always said he didn't buy the MSU thing, but I maintain their talent is equal to your's and the wins back me up). So that's 6 games where it's 50/50 or worse. Assuming $aban is a good coach (and I think he is), he'll find a way to pull outat least 3 of those (including possibly two you have no business winning). Then I'd throw in the fact that Bama has been a wildly inconsistent team, and count at least one loss you don't see coming.

Given that, my ceiling for Bama next year is 9-3. My basement is 6-6. Good luck winning a national title in that range.

[SCBusPilot 72]

The only thing apparently keeping Auburn from a chance at a National championship is Kodi Burns being a sophomore (instead of a Junior or Senior).

That is ASSUMING Kodi is the starter next year. If Chris Todd is the starter for us (very possible), he is both an upperclassman AND had starting experience at Texas Tech. Care to revise your MNC list, Mr. Sportswriter who claims to know everything?

[Legionfield 0]

I won't tear down your optimism. Here's what I will say: almost every single one of national champions had top flight running games with at least one big time college back (UF is the only one that doesn't fit the mold). That is a GAPING hole for Alabama. On top of that, I would argue that each of those teams had QBs that weren't lifelong losers (again Chris Leak is the only guy that comes to mind that didn't win, win, and win some more).

You know the team you remind me the most of? 2007 Auburn. We fit all of their criteria (in the SEC, top flight defense with returners, Brandon was a senior, bowl win, etc.), but we weren't a national title contender unless you were demented. Same for you guys. AT BEST, you guys are the 6th most talented team in the SEC (UF, UGA, AU, LSU, UT are all well ahead in terms of talent). At worst, you're playing catch-up to Arkansas and South Carolina for on-field talent as well. Throw in the FACT that MSU is fielding a team on par with you... it's too large a hill to climb.

I had this conversation with BG before last season. If you look at the schedule, there are four games (at UGA, at UT, at LSU, vs. Auburn) were it would be a big time upset (based on the players) for you to win. There are another two where the talent is level (vs. Arkansas, vs. MSU - BG always said he didn't buy the MSU thing, but I maintain their talent is equal to your's and the wins back me up). So that's 6 games where it's 50/50 or worse. Assuming $aban is a good coach (and I think he is), he'll find a way to pull outat least 3 of those (including possibly two you have no business winning). Then I'd throw in the fact that Bama has been a wildly inconsistent team, and count at least one loss you don't see coming.

Given that, my ceiling for Bama next year is 9-3. My basement is 6-6. Good luck winning a national title in that range.

Granted, I do not see us winning a NC next year, I am just excited with the talent we are bringing in.

[SouthLink02 8]

Granted, I do not see us winning a NC next year

[WarTiger 3,916]

We are coming.......

What world are you living in? You can't be serious. Alabama football is a joke. You are to college football what AOL is to internet service providers.... you have millions of ignorant followers who swear you are the best thing ever, when all you are doing is just sitting there and talking about how cool AOL used to be back before the internet.

Give me a freakin break.

Check out recruiting....it is a start. If you do not think so, you are a moron.

and if you believe the delusion, you are a moron..

didn't dubose have a couple of top 5 recruiting classes too? Refresh my memory where he is now??