COMMENTARY: Tide in '08 should win just enough to avoid Shreveport

[WinCrimson 61]

Bama lost to Arkansas in 2007 by a missed FG right? But you guys won in 2008. What's your point? WT never said you lost?

He referred to a post about losing talent and they did - they lost McFadden & Jones & Monk, amongst others.

If "they had talent to lose" and still lost to us...

There ya go.

[WAR-MATT 2]

Homer is right. ESPECIALLY at TE. I've already destroyed this argument. Look up the numbers if you don't believe me. We'll see....

Our kicker is exceptional. Two words for you, Swamp Silencer. Lil' Tiffin has yet to prove he's exceptional Punter only average. Why you group these positions together, I don't know.

DB toss up? Uh ok. We return possibly the best cover corner in the league and an All SEC safety. Better overall than Savage(freshman all-american), Powers, McNeil and Etherridge? Pass me whatever you're smoking.

LB - Auburn

DT - Auburn

OL - Bama - You're going to have to explain this one.

WR - Bama. Auburn's corps was underwhelming last season. Returning everyone doesn't mean much. Wrong again

Top 3 returning WRs for each team:

AU

Rod Smith - 52 recs - 705 yds - 13.6 ypc - 5 TDs

Montez Billings - 28 - 321 - 11.5 - 1

Robert Dunn - 19 - 211 - 11.1 - 2

AU Total = 99 recs - 1237 yds - 8 TDs

SPUAT

Mike McCoy - 28 recs - 207 yds - 7.4 ypc - 1 TD

Nikita Stover - 10 - 131 - 13.1 - 2

Earl Alexander - 4 - 40 - 10.0 - 0

SPUAT Total = 42 recs - 378 yds - 3 TDs

RB - Auburn...but by how much depends on who's healthy for Bama. Rolling 5 deep huh?

QB - Auburn? Are you kidding me? Based on what?...POTENTIAL? Please. Auburn is starting a guy who's played like 8 minutes and Bama is returning a senior. Saying Auburn by the time the iron bowl gets there is like saying JPW will lose two years of experience over the course of the season. See Brodie Croyle in 05' and Brandon Cox in 07'

You can tell this is the author of the statement "Shula recruited lights out"......

[lca408 366]

I always find this the most ludacris arguement ever. I guess it's valid concidering every preseason mag will publish their opinion, so we can debate about it later in the offseason. I am more concerned over whether our OL is better than you DL or wether our DB are better than your WRs. What difference does it make if your LBs are better than our LBs, they will never face each other on the field.

FWIW, the lack of depth has killed us year after year. I can't wait until that is no longer a problem.

Okay, good point. You want my opinion? Auburn matches up better than Alabama at most positions in 2008. Our O-Line is going to be pretty good, maybe not fantastic, but better than last year. Alabama's D-line will be a little thin. Same goes for LBs, so look for some good running by Tate, Lester, Davis, etc. The best matchup Bama has against us is their secondary. I still think Bama's secondary will be pretty good, and we just don't know how the WRs are going to perform against SEC competition so the verdict is still out. Defensively for us, we match up pretty well everywhere. Our D-line will be as good as last year, our LBs will take a big step forward, and our secondary will also improve. I like our chances on paper.

Ryan

[BamaGrad03 0]

Lil' Tiffin has yet to prove he's exceptional

He hit a 50 yarder in Auburn in the 4th Quarter.

He ranked 1st in the SEC in FG/game

His average was .4 lower than Byrum with 13 more attempts.

He was 2/2 for FGs over 50 and 8-13 for FGs over 40.

Better overall than Savage(freshman all-american), Powers, McNeil and Etherridge? Pass me whatever you're smoking.

Yeah. Kareem Jackson Freshman All American/Freshman All SEC, and Rashad Johnson - Last year 1st Team All SEC and the best returning Safety in the SEC.

Powers is good. I'm not arguing that. But he's not better than Kareem. And you don't have a safety better than Rashad. Arenas has proven to be quite good at DB, and if Mitchell stays healthy he's also a proven SEC quality corner. And you can argue it if you want...but youd be wrong: we have a better secondary coach than anyone on your staff.

You're going to have to explain this one

No explanation needed. Just watch the draft next year, and the year after.

See Brodie Croyle in 05' and Brandon Cox in 07'

I don't understand this. Croyle had a good year in 05. He won 10 games and broke a bunch of records...went on to get drafted in the 2nd round and is the KC starter.

[WarTim 3,456]

Not to mention that he holds all SEC records for "fetal position dives".........

[DKW 86 7,425]

While I share your sentiment about the Iron Bowl being unpredictable and all, I do think that, at some level, Alabama players are afraid to play Auburn. That sounds worse than I mean it, and I mean no disrespect, but Auburn definitely has the mental edge, kinda like Georgia has a kind of mental edge over us at the moment. When Bamuh players take the field against Auburn, our guys always "set the tone." There is something to the whole "occupation of Tuscaloosa" that Tuberville has been running.

I also think that, even though Tuberville might lose to Bammer again at Auburn, he will NEVER underestimate them again after the 2001 debacle. He certainly felt the "heat" after that travesty, and I know that, as much as Saban may feel pressure to win the Iron Bowl, Tuberville wants it more. He's known what its like to win it, and then lose it the next year. Tuberville will fight tooth and nail to keep the streak going as long as he can. Saban has yet to experience that, so he is at the disadvantage, much like the Bammer players are.

Ryan

:clap:

Post of the Day!

[WAR-MATT 2]

Lil' Tiffin has yet to prove he's exceptional

He hit a 50 yarder in Auburn in the 4th Quarter.

He ranked 1st in the SEC in FG/game

His average was .4 lower than Byrum with 13 more attempts.

He was 2/2 for FGs over 50 and 8-13 for FGs over 40.

Better overall than Savage(freshman all-american), Powers, McNeil and Etherridge? Pass me whatever you're smoking.

Yeah. Kareem Jackson Freshman All American/Freshman All SEC, and Rashad Johnson - Last year 1st Team All SEC and the best returning Safety in the SEC.

Powers is good. I'm not arguing that. But he's not better than Kareem. And you don't have a safety better than Rashad. Arenas has proven to be quite good at DB, and if Mitchell stays healthy he's also a proven SEC quality corner. And you can argue it if you want...but youd be wrong: we have a better secondary coach than anyone on your staff.

You're going to have to explain this one

No explanation needed. Just watch the draft next year, and the year after.

See Brodie Croyle in 05' and Brandon Cox in 07'

I don't understand this. Croyle had a good year in 05. He won 10 games and broke a bunch of records...went on to get drafted in the 2nd round and is the KC starter.

First of all your secondary has to stay out of jail...

As far as watching the draft, I'll bet you Tyronne Green gets drafted before Caldwell.....NFL scouts love his size and quickness and most see Caldwell as a center.

Oh by the way; gas was $1.26 a gallon the last time Bama beat AU.

[WinCrimson 61]

Lil' Tiffin has yet to prove he's exceptional

He hit a 50 yarder in Auburn in the 4th Quarter.

He ranked 1st in the SEC in FG/game

His average was .4 lower than Byrum with 13 more attempts.

He was 2/2 for FGs over 50 and 8-13 for FGs over 40.

Better overall than Savage(freshman all-american), Powers, McNeil and Etherridge? Pass me whatever you're smoking.

Yeah. Kareem Jackson Freshman All American/Freshman All SEC, and Rashad Johnson - Last year 1st Team All SEC and the best returning Safety in the SEC.

Powers is good. I'm not arguing that. But he's not better than Kareem. And you don't have a safety better than Rashad. Arenas has proven to be quite good at DB, and if Mitchell stays healthy he's also a proven SEC quality corner. And you can argue it if you want...but youd be wrong: we have a better secondary coach than anyone on your staff.

You're going to have to explain this one

No explanation needed. Just watch the draft next year, and the year after.

See Brodie Croyle in 05' and Brandon Cox in 07'

I don't understand this. Croyle had a good year in 05. He won 10 games and broke a bunch of records...went on to get drafted in the 2nd round and is the KC starter.

Spot on with Johnson, Tiffin, and Jackson.

But, Lionel Mitchell? He's got to be one of the worst college football players I've ever seen.

[Hoopie 6]

While I share your sentiment about the Iron Bowl being unpredictable and all, I do think that, at some level, Alabama players are afraid to play Auburn. That sounds worse than I mean it, and I mean no disrespect, but Auburn definitely has the mental edge, kinda like Georgia has a kind of mental edge over us at the moment. When Bamuh players take the field against Auburn, our guys always "set the tone." There is something to the whole "occupation of Tuscaloosa" that Tuberville has been running.

I also think that, even though Tuberville might lose to Bammer again at Auburn, he will NEVER underestimate them again after the 2001 debacle. He certainly felt the "heat" after that travesty, and I know that, as much as Saban may feel pressure to win the Iron Bowl, Tuberville wants it more. He's known what its like to win it, and then lose it the next year. Tuberville will fight tooth and nail to keep the streak going as long as he can. Saban has yet to experience that, so he is at the disadvantage, much like the Bammer players are.

Ryan

:clap:

Post of the Day!

Interesting take and fun to read, however I just don't think that emotions play that big of a role. I can't stand Lee Corso, but I do agree with him that the team with the best players wins 80% of the time.

Are the best players the ones with the best attitude and committment? Probably!

[mcgufcm 4,096]

BG did you really say that your secondary coach was better than any coach at any position on our staff? REALLY? You're taking him over Tubby. You're taking him over Eddie Gran who has a better track record than any positional coach in the conference (and it's not even close... the man has coached FIVE 1st and 2nd round running backs. FIVE!! McAlister, Rudi, Cadillac, Brown, and Irons. Not to mention putting John Avery, Heath Evans, and Carl Stewart all into the league)... but you'd take your secondary coach over that guy. Right. Maybe that's why you guys have to pay Tubby rent just to sit down... since he owns that @$$.

As for the Oline thing... good recommendation about watching the draft this year and next. You'd DEFINITELY want to skip the next year when Ziemba, Pugh, and Ramsey all graduate and get drafted before anyone else on your line. You might have more guys drafted off the line in the next two years, but the ONLY reason for that is because we only lose two guys off this line in that time. You'll also have to pardon Auburn fans for not bowing to your NFL draft worthy line... we had a guy get drafted who could only stay in our lineup for 3 games this year. Just because an NFL team gets lulled into drafting overrated players with "tools" doesn't make them dominant linemen.

As for the secondary, I'd take Powers over Jackson every day of the week and twice on gameday. He's in the same neighborhood in coverage and a much better tackler. About the secondary as a whole, you're absolutely right about Johnson. He's a stud, but I like our second safety (McNeil) more than your second safety. The other corner is a question mark for both of us (although Savage has been an all-star level performer in the past... but that was at safety, totally different).

About Croyle, he captained the least threatening 10-win team in history (one that finished third in its division). Plus, you might not want to brag about him being the worst starter in the NFL. That's like a Miami fan bragging about Ken Dorsey's starts over in San Fran... not a good idea.

[lca408 366]

Interesting take and fun to read, however I just don't think that emotions play that big of a role. I can't stand Lee Corso, but I do agree with him that the team with the best players wins 80% of the time.

Are the best players the ones with the best attitude and committment? Probably!

Emotions and Confidence play a huge role in sports. Just look at Bama vs. La-Monroe last year. All kidding aside, Bama has a much MUCH better team than the Warhawk weaklings, but La-Monroe knew that Bama had lost two straight games and that they had the slightest chance to make it a ballgame. Bama on the other hand, had absolutely no confidence in themselves whatsoever, and what happened? They got "whopped."

Look at the Florida game from this past year. Our guys showed up with confidence and enthusiasm. We played with poise and emotion and beat the Gators in the Swamp for the first time since 1994. If you compare the emotion of the team that faced Florida and the team that faced Mississippi State, the difference is night and day.

While yes, the best players and better talent will usually give you the biggest advantage in any ballgame, if you don't show up mentally ready to play, you're screwed. In the Iron Bowl, confidence and emotion CAN be everything. (First half of 2004 Iron Bowl) That game is built upon momentum swings and high flying emotion. (End of 1997 Iron Bowl)

Is it everything? No. But it counts for alot, especially in this rivalry. Alabama players don't have that same confidence that we have when we play each other. They may talk trash like they do, but when it comes to hits on the field, our guys hit harder, and have been for the last 6 years. It's not all talent. Look at 2005. Comparing the offenses vs. defenses, it was about as even an Iron Bowl as we've seen in a while. Our guys showed up with confidence, and we overhwhelmed their more or less evenly talented defense.

Ryan

[Ashandarei 0]

Hopefully with all the new blood, a lot of the lacking confidence will leave! I can totally see AU getting 7 on us this year. It's going to take time to get where we want, but I see it being, as if anyone expected anything different, a slug fest this year, probably more than any other in the past 8.

[SouthLink02 8]

Interesting take and fun to read, however I just don't think that emotions play that big of a role. I can't stand Lee Corso, but I do agree with him that the team with the best players wins 80% of the time.

Are the best players the ones with the best attitude and committment? Probably!

Me and you are on completely opposite ends of the scale on this argument then

I would say emotions have a high, HIGH majority to do with how a team plays

I think emotions can show HOW a team will play, HOW they deal with pressure, HOW they deal with adversity, etc....

Emotions ARE the reason why we turned out season around last year. Our players were the same ones from being beaten by USC, UT, and almost Vandy to really turning it on against UF, AU, Tech, Hawaii

What changed? Emotions. Not the schemes, Not the players, Not the Coaches

[SouthLink02 8]

When looking at both Alabama and Auburn and seeing who they return and what they have to replace it, I gotta be honest....I think both teams return a LOT and lose a LOT

I think both Alabama and Auburn return good OL's and I think both of you all know that the other returns a good OL. I do agree in a way with the AU poster who talked about Bama's toughness on the OL as UGA's DL was weak during the Bama game but really seemed to be more nasty than the Bama OL. But, that type of thing CAN CHANGE quickly and another off-season may cure that

QB wise, I think Bama has the edge but what the hell does that even mean? I mean, I don't trust JPW one damn bit. The guy throwing for 300+, 4 TD's one week wouldn't surprise me nor would him throwing 3 INT's including the game-clinching INT to end it the following. But, if you ask me what QB will put up better stats I will say JPW as he does have experience and will be running ONE offensive scheme this year instead of that back-and-forth crap from last year.

RB wise, I just don't see how you can pick Alabama. I mean, maybe they do have some studs but they haven't shown me anything. AU has a proven record of RB's and maybe Alabama from years ago (Alexander, etc...) but lately I have read what BG said about their RB's yet they don't seem to be that...GREAT....good? Yes....great? Not that I have seen

WR wise, both teams have a lot of prove but I would say Auburn's will have the MOST with the system they will have and how they react to being a lot more downfield this upcoming season. I do think Alabama has the talent at WR to be a solid team at this position.

I won't even try to get into D because I don't know enough about who and what they lose/gain nor those coming into lost positions (as in, lost starters)

I will say this....I pegged Alabama as my sleeper last year and ALMOST had that come true heading into LSU.

I will never count out a Nick Saban team. I just won't. I think eventually he will make Alabama a team that competes yearly for the SECC....not to say Alabama will make it every year....of course not but I think eventually he turns them into a team that makes it every 3-4 years and wins it a few times.

With that said, I don't think Bama wins the West with JPW at QB

[WarTim 3,456]

The $4mil boy will not be @ west vance long enough to compete for the WEST, much less the SEC.

[Ashandarei 0]

The $4mil boy will not be @ west vance long enough to compete for the WEST, much less the SEC.

People keep saying that. I know I can't prove he will stay, but you can't say for certainty that he will leave, though eventually he will, just like Pinebox. I will say that I think Saban will be here when Tubs leaves, which I think will be in a few years.

[WarTiger 3,901]

The $4mil boy will not be @ west vance long enough to compete for the WEST, much less the SEC.

People keep saying that. I know I can't prove he will stay, but you can't say for certainty that he will leave, though eventually he will, just like Pinebox. I will say that I think Saban will be here when Tubs leaves, which I think will be in a few years.

well it is the $4 million boy that doesn't seem to stay at a job for more than 4-5 years, so its a pretty safe assumption to believe that he'll be at a better program LONG before tuberville leaves auburn. In fact, It wouldn't surprise me at all to see uat on their 2nd 5th choice AFTER satan before tuberville leaves.

[mcgufcm 4,096]

ash, you can't claim Tubby is leaving without sounding ridiculous. Why? Because he's proven it. After Ole Miss, every crack about him was completely warranted. He had to prove that he was serious about staying, and until he did that he was fair game. Now? He's long since proven that he's not searching for the next big job. He's been here since 1999, through great and bad and average times. He's built this program and sustained it.

$aban on the other hand has proven nothing. Until he proves that he's interested in building Bama and sustaining it (something he's never done before), every single crack about him leaving is warranted. You just have to bite your lip and take it or else you just look like a crazy homer.

As for your comment, Tubby will retire at Auburn unless we're dumb enough to ruin it. He might not be our coach five years from now, but that'll only be the case if he's done coaching altogether.

[Bama My Heart 5]

ash, you can't claim Tubby is leaving without sounding ridiculous. Why? Because he's proven it. After Ole Miss, every crack about him was completely warranted. He had to prove that he was serious about staying, and until he did that he was fair game. Now? He's long since proven that he's not searching for the next big job. He's been here since 1999, through great and bad and average times. He's built this program and sustained it.

$aban on the other hand has proven nothing. Until he proves that he's interested in building Bama and sustaining it (something he's never done before), every single crack about him leaving is warranted. You just have to bite your lip and take it or else you just look like a crazy homer.

As for your comment, Tubby will retire at Auburn unless we're dumb enough to ruin it. He might not be our coach five years from now, but that'll only be the case if he's done coaching altogether.

I do not think that Coach Saban will leave Bama to go somewhere else. I don't know how long he plans on staying in coaching, and would think that working at the pace that he does, he might want to retire at 60, and that would be the only way he leaves.

How can you say that Coach Tuberville leaving sounds ridiculous? Is this because of the huge buy out?

No school is willing to pay that much to get a coach that has not won a national championship, and he is not willing to pay it to leave. So it's best if you are happy with him and he is happy with you, because he can't go anywhere until that amount is reduced. I think that he would want to stay at Auburn to win the national championship, because he promised that when he came.

[mcgufcm 4,096]

It's ridiculous because he's been here for decade! He's been courted by other schools, and regardless of what the media in Arkansas or other radio hacks in this state tell you, he wasn't close to leaving. Where's he going to go? He turned down Arkansas (his home state), he declined to interview at Miami (his first big job), he said he had no interest in A&M (his first DC job)... so where's he going?? Seriously. You think Tubs is leaving the South any time soon? No. You think he's jumping to the NFL? No. So that makes the list of jobs a short one. Now if you think of the number of possible jobs he could get that could: 1) pay him at least as much as Auburn does, and 2) provide a better shot at a championship, and 3) actually be a step up in his career. Here's the list: Texas, Florida, Georgia, LSU, the U, Oklahoma, and possibly Tennessee... that's it. That's the list.

Outside of that list, he's either taking a step down in prestige (I'm looking at you Arkansas and the Carolinas), a step down in money (all other SEC schools save Bama and all other Big 12 schools save A&M), or moving to a place where it's more difficult to win big (wave bye bye A&M and Clemson). Seriously. I know this is a lot of Bama fan's wet dream, but Tubs isn't going anywhere, and he's got a track record to prove it. He coached at the U for a long time, moved on to get a DC job, moved on to get a head coaching job, made a total ass of himself on the way out, and has been at Auburn for a decade since.

As for $aban, he might stay at Bama forever, but there is NOTHING in his past that says that's going to happen. His longest tenure at ANY job (as an assistant or a head man in college or pro) is FIVE YEARS. That's it. Tubby coached at Arkansas State for five years, the U for 8 years, and Auburn for 10 (and counting). He doesn't move. In contrast, all $aban does is move. Put it this way, Tubby started coaching in 1980, in that time he's coached at 5 places (ASU, the U, A&M, Ole Miss, and Auburn); during the same time (and this rules out the "getting started" period when most coaches do a lot of moving b/c $aban started six years before), $aban has been with 10 organizations (OSU, Navy, MSU, the Oilers, Toledo, the Browns, MSU again, LSU, the Dolphins, and Bama... none for more than five years). I agree that Tubs deserved the skeptism early in his time at Auburn, but it is the height of the ridiculous to compare Tubs and $aban. Their track records are nothing alike.

$aban may stay, but Bama fans have to be honest and admit that doing so would completely buck the way the man has lived his life (as a nomad) for the last 30 YEARS. Any skeptism that people have about him remaining at Bama for a long time is completely warranted. Any question about Tubby leaving Auburn on the other hand stands against his career AND his track record with Auburn... basically, it just looks like wishful thinking.

[AUesquire 1]

10 years at one school is pretty stout for any coach these days.

[AUBURNJAC 53]

Bama lost to Arkansas in 2007 by a missed FG right? But you guys won in 2008. What's your point? WT never said you lost?

He referred to a post about losing talent and they did - they lost McFadden & Jones & Monk, amongst others.

Did I skip a year of my life? Geez I hope not. I was really looking forward to 2008

[ECEstudentUA 9]

10 years at one school is pretty stout for any coach these days.

very much so, that doesn't happen that much anymore.

[quietfan 233]

10 years at one school is pretty stout for any coach these days.

very much so, that doesn't happen that much anymore.

That's why I don't put much stock in the regular "CTT is going elsewhere" rumors. I think he genuinely loves Auburn as much as we love him and plans to retire here. If he wanted to go, he's had myriad good opportunities. Heck, he could have written his own ticket anywhere after the 2004 season, and after the way he was treated at the end of 2003 nobody would have blamed him.

...and we're damn lucky to have him!

[quietfan 233]

Another thought: What other current coach has done so much in one place in the last 10 years? In terms of longevity, I'm know there's Joe Pa and Daddy Bowden, then of course Fulmer has, what, 15 years at UT? I think Tuberville has done more consistently over the last ten years than any of them. What other long-timers are out there?