Jump to content

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll,,,,,,,,,


Recommended Posts

No Michelle Obama bounce: McCain 47, Obama 46 among likelies

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote for the second straight day. When "leaners" are included, though, McCain picked up another point since yesterday and now has a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over Obama, 47% to 46% (sign up for daily e-mail update).

This is the first time since August 9 that McCain has held any advantage over Obama. The candidates have been within two points of each other on every day but two for the past month (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 53% (see trends).

Full demographic crosstabs featuring tracking poll results by gender, age, race, ideology, party, most important issues, religious beliefs and more are available to Premium Members via the Daily Snapshot. There’s just five more days to save with summer rates on Premium Memberships. Sign up now and save. Learn More.

Today, as the Democratic National Convention focuses on national security issues, confidence in the War on Terror—and the situation in Iraq--has reached an all-time high. More Americans trust Democrats than Republicans on national security issues but McCain is trusted more than Obama. Polling conducted last night shows that 52% of voters trust McCain more on National Security issues while 41% trust Obama.

Tonight, Joe Biden will address the convention after his selection as Obama’s running mate received mixed reviews.

Despite Biden’s presence, Bill Clinton will be the feature story on Wednesday night and he is currently viewed favorably by 84% of Democrats. That’s two points higher than Obama’s total. However, Clinton is viewed Very Favorably by just 46% of Democrats while 62% are that enthusiastic about Obama. One factor may be that just 52% of Democrats believe Bill Clinton wants Barack Obama to win the White House in November. Similar skepticism was expressed about Hillary Clinton before her well-received speech last night.

Other speakers in Denver tonight include New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh. Richardson is viewed favorably by 49% of Democrats nationwide and unfavorably by 25%. Bayh’s numbers are 45% favorable and 25% unfavorable.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 183 votes (see Quick Campaign Overview). When leaners are included, it’s Obama 264, McCain 247 (see 50-State Summary). Premium Members can review demographic crosstabs for all state and national polling. Time is running out for summer rates on Premium Memberships. Sign up now and save. Learn More.

Rasmussen Markets currently gives Obama a 60.7 % chance of winning the White House.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

Summaries of our national tracking data on how voters perceive the candidates and issues can still be seen at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For the month of August, the targets are 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. For July, the targets were 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis).

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

No Biden bounce, no Michelle my belle bounce, no Hillary bounce..... kiss this big O goodbye!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gallup Poll Gives Obama Convention ‘Bounce’

The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll on Thursday showed the Democratic presidential nominee up 6 points over rival John McCain, 48 to 42 percent, with a 2-point margin of error.

It was the first time in two weeks Obama has opened up a significant lead. McCain even moved ahead of Obama by 2 points in the daily tracking on Tuesday for the first time this summer.

But the Obama bump comes after several high-profile speeches by Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, Sen. Ted Kennedy and others praised Obama during two days of convention night speeches.

The Obama and McCain campaigns have been in a tug of war over how high to raise the bar for any post-convention bounce.

McCain spokesman Jill Hazelbaker repeated the campaign’s prediction Thursday that Obama will enjoy a 15-point gain coming out of the convention.

But on a conference call with reporters, Obama aides said they expect no bounce at all.

“We don’t hold elections in August, we hold them in November,” said Obama adviser Anita Dunn. “So, you know, as we move forward out of this convention, we’re not expecting a bump, but we feel, frankly … that we’ve made a lot of progress this week.”

“We expect that … probably after our convention, after John McCain’s V.P. pick, after their convention, that this race will probably be in a very similar place to where it is,” Obama spokesman Dan Pfeiffer said.

The Gallup poll was an average of the last three days’ results and was taken before Bill Clinton and vice presidential nominee Joe Biden spoke Wednesday night.


Link to comment
Share on other sites


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Create New...