Kerry Wins by 6%, Polls said 35%

[DKW 86 7,726]

I am going to bore most here on this but this is just ludicrous. If a poll is done scientifically there is no way that you can be that far off. I think the probability of missing it that bad was about 1.0x10^9, more or less.

I guess what I amm saying here is that the polls were BS. Makes you wonder if the Dems have already chosen Kerry and want to squash all challengers early.

I worked on the Parker for Congress Campaign in 1996. He ran against Cramer. We were close till a Poll by Southern Opinion Research (SPUAT) came out and pegged us trailing by 29% with ten days to go.

We ran totally out of cash, etc. Lost by less than 1000 votes, or .5%. We were supposed to have closed 28.5% in ten days with no money? Seems some polls are custom made for some candidates.

[Tiger Al 0]

I am going to bore most here on this but this is just ludicrous. If a poll is done scientifically there is no way that you can be that far off. I think the probability of missing it that bad was about 1.0x10^9, more or less.

I guess what I amm saying here is that the polls were BS. Makes you wonder if the Dems have already chosen Kerry and want to squash all challengers early.

I worked on the Parker for Congress Campaign in 1996. He ran against Cramer. We were close till a Poll by Southern Opinion Research (SPUAT) came out and pegged us trailing by 29% with ten days to go.

We ran totally out of cash, etc. Lost by less than 1000 votes, or .5%. We were supposed to have closed 28.5% in ten days with no money? Seems some polls are custom made for some candidates.

You got a link to any of this or are you going by the same memory that you used when you reported on the "massive" republican turnout for the Hardball show with Howard Dean?

[DKW 86 7,726]

Zogby had 27% Lead.

USA TODAY shows Edwards with only 9%

Another with 27% lead

more to come

[TitanTiger 20,708]

I'll vouch for David on this one. I was shocked when I saw the final totals. Just 2-3 days before the Wisconsin primary, one of the cable channels (I think it was MSNBC) had Kerry with a 24 point lead over Dean who was in second. Edwards was a close third behind Dean.

EDIT: In fact, this is the one I saw. Hardball with Chris Matthews was showing an MSNBC/Zogby poll. Here's the snippet from Zogby's site:

Democratic presidential front-runner John Kerry looks set for another blowout win in Wisconsin, leading nearest rival Howard Dean by 24 points on the eve of the primary, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released Monday.

Kerry, riding a wave of momentum that has carried him to 14 wins in the first 16 Democratic contests, most by huge margins, leads Dean 47 percent to 23 percent in the Wisconsin poll. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is third with 20 percent.

[Tiger Al 0]

Well, David, the Zogby poll was taken Friday, Saturday and Sunday before the Democratic debates and had 14% listed as undecided with a margin of error of +/- 4%. The USA Today poll was done one week ago with 17% undecided and MoE of +/- 4%. The Newsday poll was done on Feb. 13-15, only 7% undecided and a MoE +/- 4%.

Could it be that after the debates some undecideds and some Dean supporters went with Edwards? Also, does the DNC REALLY control the pollsters?

[DKW 86 7,726]

5-6 or more Std Deviations still has a huge smell to it especially for only 2-3 days. 3 Sds is approx. 99.9%, 5-6 or 7 is just mathematic certainty of problems with survey.

I just read where Wisc is open primary tho. It could just be crossovers.

Thought that was all gone by now.

[CarolinaTiger 0]

the pundits were talking about this very thing last night...they did say none of the polls were taken any later than friday or so...and that they didn't reflect a debate and/or some newspaper endorsements. evidently edwards was endorsed by the biggest paper in wisconson...???

i can't remember all they speculated...but even edwards said he wsa surprised.

ct