LSU - Preview

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Auburn (11-6, 1-4) vs. LSU (9-7, 1-4)

• Wednesday, January 18th, 2017
• 7:30PM CT
• SEC Network / WatchESPN
• Auburn, Arena

Auburn is coming off of a week where we improved our RPI with a road win over MIzzou and a road loss to UK. This week we are at home vs LSU and Bama, with a chance to continue righting the ship after early struggles in league play. By the end of this week we could find ourselves right back in discussions for postseason play, or only discussing what next year may bring. Personally, I still think these tigers have a lot of fight left and much to play for.

Despite the loss of Purifoy, there are reasons to be optimistic, but we also have to face the reality that currently this game is to determine who will reside at the bottom of the SEC this season. After all LSU and Auburn are both 1-4 in the SEC with their only win over winless MIzzou. So in order to avoid the preseason pick of 11th in the league, we must get a win here. LSU is equally as desperate, so I would expect to get their best shot. Currently, we are tied with LSU for 11th in the league, the winner of tonight's game will move into a tie for 8th. 

They play 10 guys 10+ minutes, including to 6'10" forwards who each go about 225lbs. They are an athletic team overall, but lack any truly high level skill guys.  They have four guys averaging double figures, so they have fairly balanced scoring. They put up 75 per game, which is respectable, but they give up 78 per game, which is bad, even worse than the 76 per game we give up. Those numbers get even worse in SEC play only, with LSU nearly giving up 90 per game. So I'd expect this to be a fairly high scoring game, in the 80's (first one to 90 wins). LSU does most of their scoring from two, only taking 18 3's per game, and only making 6. They also allow their opponents to shoot 50+ from the field. 

Rebounding is pretty even statistically, LSU is marginally better, but this is an area that could cause problems if we go with a four guard line up again, as we did vs Kentucky. I liked how the four guard lineup helped our offense vs Kentucky, but we need to score 85 plus to be in that game. This game will not require that many points, and personally I think going small is a big risk in this one. 

WIley will have a good size advantage on the interior, and if he can stay out of foul trouble, could also control the game on defense. I would also look for Harper to be more aggressive in this game to get back on track after a very quite game vs UK. If we are going to right this ship, we need him to be a big part of it. Likewise, I hope to see Brown have another good game, his last two games he is shooting 50% from 3 (6 of 12), I hope to see him more aggressive tonight as well. His minutes have been steadily increasing since his return to the rotation, and I think it is only a matter of time before he makes a return to the starting lineup. Lang continues to shoot a good percentage from 3, but just hasn't converted it into much production, only getting into double figures once all season. Combine that with few rebounds and almost no steals and you have to wonder how long he will hold his spot without an increase in production. 

The UK game saw McLemore's minutes reduced after seeing several games of 15+ minutes. I think it was to get more scorers on the floor, and doubt that will continue as a regular occurrence. Another thing I doubt will continue was the number of shots taken by Dunans vs UK. He played well, and I am as big a fan of him as any. However, he is most valuable to us as a gap filler rather than as the primary source of offense. No one on our team is as versatile as Dunans. He can score, create, defend, and rebound. Tonight, we will need him be efficient offensively, but allow Harper and others to get going as well, and to contribute rebounding with DP still out.  I don't think we have lost a game (this season or last) when Dunans has 4-5 rebounds, 3-4 assists, and 10+ points. That is where we need him most. 

I'd personally, like to see a big game from Heron, it may be his time to emerge as our guy. He has been the most consistently productive all season, I'd like to see his touches and shot attempts increase, starting tonight. We haven't lost a game all season when he has multiple assists. He needs the ball to come his way more often for that to happen.

As usual, I expect to be able to score a good amount of points, I'd like to see us force them to shoot outside shots, and rebound well to win. This is a game where we could gain some serious confidence and blow them out of the gym, but it is one that we could also allow to slip away if we don't come out with a purpose. 

War Eagle. 

[aufan57 922]

See where Auburn is a 7.5 favorite. 

[AuburnNTexas 7,142]

As usual a great preview. I really look forward to this before every game.

Thank you

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

 

23 minutes ago, aufan57 said:

See where Auburn is a 7.5 favorite. 

from yesterday: 

On 1/16/2017 at 3:20 PM, JwgreDeux said:

I would expect us to be favored in both games. 7 or so vs LSU and .5-2.5 vs Alabama, right now. 

[AUTigersfan89 256]

A 20+ point win would feel so good right now. It seems like I've sent every other team in the SEC do it so far but not us. Cruising to a win would help the team mentally as well.

[Charhair 345]

Great write up. I'd love to see Wiley have a game where he can get hot. I feel like that would do a bunch for his confidence in giving him the reassurance that he can still dominant. It would also be fun to watch. Wiley dominating the post so much that defenses are forced to leave our shooters open would be an amazing addition to this team (and next years), I'm getting a little carried away but this would be a great time to move in that direction

Edited January 18, 2017 by Charhair

[AUGoo 2,664]

Appears that we can play up to the likes of UK or play down to the likes of OM or Mercer. 

Now would be a good time to show some growth and maturity and just take care of business.

[au302 2,669]

There's a chance LSU's best player Antonio Blakney won't play tonight due to injury. Hate to see a guy get injured and not play but this would make the game much easier. Besides him, they don't have many other guys who can consistently score besides Duop Reath. 

[boomstick 1,315]

My fear with Dunans is he seems like a volume scorer, and he's not as consistent when he has limited scoring attempts.

[augolf1716 21,122]

1 hour ago, au302 said:

There's a chance LSU's best player Antonio Blakney won't play tonight due to injury. Hate to see a guy get injured and not play but this would make the game much easier. Besides him, they don't have many other guys who can consistently score besides Duop Reath. 

Take whatever we can get

[au302 2,669]

16 minutes ago, augolf1716 said:

Take whatever we can get

Lol your right about that. If he is in fact out that's really huge. I can see him playing but having his minutes reduced as he recovers 

[auburnphan 6,050]

Thanks for these previews, they are great.  Appreciate all the effort!

[auburnphan 6,050]

Josh Vitale ‏@AUBlog  2m2 minutes ago

Scouts from the Knicks, Timberwolves and Raptors are here tonight

[jared52 4,354]

This game and Saturday will define the rest of AU's season. Win both, things are still on track. Lose either and it's in trouble. Lose both, AU is done. 

Edited January 19, 2017 by jared52