Russia vs Ukraine

[autigeremt 6,606]

7 minutes ago, icanthearyou said:

We can all see Trump for he and what he is.  Reality is the same for all of us.

The difference is simply, some people like who he is.  Actually, they love who he is.

Hell that can be said of a lot of people who are absolute idiots. Orange man, a staunch NYC Democrat at one point in his life, is a theatric who hates losing....at anything. He's about himself....an outward display of what it wrong with humanity. The only difference between he and 95% of the political elite is his personality and tactics. He's out in the open for the world to see.....the rest do it behind the veil of respect. 

Edited March 15, 2022 by autigeremt

[icanthearyou 4,462]

17 minutes ago, autigeremt said:

Hell that can be said of a lot of people who are absolute idiots. Orange man, a staunch NYC Democrat at one point in his life, is a theatric who hates losing....at anything. He's about himself....an outward display of what it wrong with humanity. The only difference between he and 95% of the political elite is his personality and tactics. He's out in the open for the world to see.....the rest do it behind the veil of respect. 

I have no way of knowing about the 95% you stated.  Maybe?

Still, that "veil of respect" is a form of restraint.  I do not believe accepting that sort of behavior and thereby normalizing it, serves any purpose other than making things worse.

[autigeremt 6,606]

6 hours ago, icanthearyou said:

I have no way of knowing about the 95% you stated.  Maybe?

Still, that "veil of respect" is a form of restraint.  I do not believe accepting that sort of behavior and thereby normalizing it, serves any purpose other than making things worse.

The end result is still the same....and the American people deserve better. 

[homersapien 11,370]

Excellent documentary on Putin.  Shows what we're up against.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/putins-road-to-war/

[icanthearyou 4,462]

20 minutes ago, homersapien said:

Excellent documentary on Putin.  Shows what we're up against.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/putins-road-to-war/

Frontline is excellent.  Even without the noise it is still highly entertaining.  More importantly, highly informative.

The bio they did on Putin a few years ago is also a must watch.  Frightening thinking about how corruption in Russia is comparable to some of our own corruption.  Frightening that our inequality is more comparable to Russia's than our democratic peers.

[homersapien 11,370]

1 hour ago, icanthearyou said:

Frontline is excellent.  Even without the noise it is still highly entertaining.  More importantly, highly informative.

The bio they did on Putin a few years ago is also a must watch.  Frightening thinking about how corruption in Russia is comparable to some of our own corruption.  Frightening that our inequality is more comparable to Russia's than our democratic peers.

I was thinking exactly that while watching it.

Also, I noticed a lot of similarities between Trump and Putin.

[homersapien 11,370]

3 hours ago, homersapien said:

Excellent documentary on Putin.  Shows what we're up against.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/putins-road-to-war/

And here's a follow-up essay that sheds further light on Putin, as well as autocrats in general:

Vladimir Putin Has Fallen Into the Dictator Trap

Reality doesn’t conform to the theory of the rational, calculating despot who can play the long game.

By Brian Klass

About the author: Brian Klaas is a global-politics professor at University College London, a weekly columnist for The Washington Post, and the host of the Power Corrupts podcast. He is the author of Corruptible: Who Gets Power and How It Changes Us.

In the span of a couple of weeks, Vladimir Putin—a man recently described by Donald Trump as a strategic “genius”—managed to revitalize NATO, unify a splintered West, turn Ukraine’s little-known president into a global hero, wreck Russia’s economy, and solidify his legacy as a murderous war criminal.

How did he miscalculate so badly?

To answer that question, you have to understand the power and information ecosystems around dictators. I’ve studied and interviewed despots across the globe for more than a decade. In my research, I’ve persistently encountered a stubborn myth—of the savvy strongman, the rational, calculating despot who can play the long game because he (and it’s typically a he) doesn’t have to worry about pesky polls or angry voters. Our elected leaders, this view suggests, are no match for the tyrant who gazes into the next decade rather than fretting about next year’s election.

Reality doesn’t conform to that rosy theory.

Autocrats such as Putin eventually succumb to what may be called the “dictator trap.” The strategies they use to stay in power tend to trigger their eventual downfall. Rather than being long-term planners, many make catastrophic short-term errors—the kinds of errors that would likely have been avoided in democratic systems. They hear only from sycophants, and get bad advice. They misunderstand their population. They don’t see threats coming until it’s too late. And unlike elected leaders who leave office to riches, book tours, and the glitzy lifestyle of a statesman, many dictators who miscalculate leave office in a casket, a possibility that makes them even more likely to double down.

Despots sow the seeds of their own demise early on, when they first face the trade-off between allowing freedom of expression and maintaining an iron grip on power. After arriving in the palace, crushing dissent and jailing opponents is often rational, from the perspective of a dictator: It creates a culture of fear that is useful for establishing and maintaining control. But that culture of fear comes with a cost.

For those of us living in liberal democracies, criticizing the boss is risky, but we’re not going to be shipped off to a gulag or watch our family get tortured. In authoritarian regimes, those all-too-real risks have a way of focusing the mind. Is it ever worthwhile for authoritarian advisers to speak truth to power?

As a result, despots rarely get told that their stupid ideas are stupid, or that their ill-conceived wars are likely to be catastrophic. Offering honest criticism is a deadly game and most advisers avoid doing so. Those who dare to gamble eventually lose and are purged. So over time, the advisers who remain are usually yes-men who act like bobbleheads, nodding along when the despot outlines some crackpot scheme.

Even with such seemingly loyal cronies, despots face a dilemma. How can you trust the loyalty of an entourage that has every reason to lie and conceal its true thoughts? The ancient Greek philosopher Xenophon wrote of that inescapable paradox of tyranny: “It is never possible for the tyrant to trust that he is loved … and plots against tyrants spring from none more than from those who pretend to love them most.”

To solve this problem, despots create loyalty tests, ghoulish charades to separate true believers from pretenders. To be trusted, advisers must lie on behalf of the regime. Those who repeat absurd claims without blinking are deemed loyal. Anyone who hesitates is considered suspect.

In Kim Jong Un’s North Korea, for example, the lies have gotten progressively more ridiculous. Once a lie becomes widely accepted, the value of that individual loyalty test declines. Once everyone knows that Kim Jong Un learned to drive when he was just 3 years old, a new, more extreme lie must emerge for the test to serve its purpose. The cycle repeats itself, and a cult of personality is born.

Plenty of people around Putin understood that dynamic, which is why they were willing to parrot Putin’s outlandish claim that the Jewish president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, is presiding over a “neo-Nazi” state. (Such mythmaking can happen in democracies too, if you have an authoritarian-style leader. Just consider how many Republicans have fallen over one another to endorse Donald Trump’s lies about the 2020 election in order to prove their MAGA bona fides.)

But to stay in power, despots have to worry about more than just their advisers and cronies. They have to win over, intimidate, or coerce their population too. That’s why dictators invest in state-sponsored media. In Russia, the state goes so far as to present fake presidential candidates who pretend to oppose Putin in rigged elections. The whole system is a Potemkin village, an illusion of choice and political debate.

Again, that mechanism of control comes with a cost. Some citizens brainwashed by state propaganda will support a war that is sure to backfire. Others privately oppose the regime, but will be too afraid to say anything. As a result, reliable polling doesn’t exist in autocracies. (Russia is no exception.) That means that despots like Putin are unable to accurately understand the attitudes of their own people.

If you live in a fake world long enough, it can start to feel real. Dictators and despots begin to believe their own lies, repeated back at them and propagated by state-controlled media. That might help explain why Putin’s recent speeches have stood out as unhinged rants. It’s certainly possible that his mind has succumbed to his own propaganda, creating a warped worldview in which the invasion of Ukraine was, as Trump put it, an incredibly “savvy” move.

The risks of miscalculation are compounded, psychology research has shown, by the fact that power literally goes to your head, including in a key way that may be relevant in explaining Putin’s costly gambit in Ukraine. The longer someone is in power, the more they begin to get a sense of what is known as “illusory control,” a mistaken belief that they can control outcomes much more than they actually can. That delusion is particularly dangerous in dictatorships, in which there are virtually no checks or balances, no term limits or free elections to boot someone from power.

Some Russia experts, such as Fiona Hill, have recently suggested that Putin has spent much of the pandemic isolated and alone, poring over old maps of the lost Russian “imperium.” Cumulatively, it’s possible to imagine how these factors combined to convince Putin that his brutal blunder in Ukraine was a good idea.

When despots screw up, they need to watch their own back. Yet again, they can become victims of the dictator trap. To crush prospective enemies, they must demand loyalty and crack down on criticism. But the more they do so, the lower the quality of information they receive, and the less they can trust the people who purport to serve them. As a result, even when government officials learn about plots to overthrow an autocrat, they may not share that knowledge. This is known as the “vacuum effect”—and it means that authoritarian presidents might learn of coup attempts and putsches only when it’s too late. This raises a question that should keep Putin awake at night: If the oligarchs were to eventually make a move against him, would anyone warn him?

Clearly, Putin is no fool. But as we debate possible endgames to the war in Ukraine, we shouldn’t kid ourselves. Putin, like many despots, isn’t behaving fully rationally. He inhabits a fantasy world, surrounded by people who are afraid to challenge him, with a mind that has been poisoned by more than two decades as a tyrant. He’s made a catastrophic mistake in Ukraine—one that may yet prove his downfall.

Democracy isn’t perfect. It’s messy. It can be shortsighted. Many powerful democracies, including the United States, are dysfunctional. But at least our leaders face real constraints, real pushback for their miscalculations, and real criticism from their population. And, crucially, there’s a built-in mechanism to replace our leaders when they start to behave irrationally or irresponsibly.

That’s why it’s time to jettison the myth of the “savvy” strongman, or the dictator who’s a geopolitical “genius.” Putin has fallen victim to the dictator trap and proved that he is neither.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-dictator-trap-russia-ukraine/627064/

Edited March 16, 2022 by homersapien

[TexasTiger 12,848]

Interesting analysis:

 

[I_M4_AU 7,810]

US officials confirmed to CNN that Russia launched hypersonic missiles against Ukraine last week, the first known use of such missiles in combat. The US was able to track the launches in real time, the sources said. 

The launches were likely intended to test the weapons and send a message to the West about Russian capabilities, multiple sources told CNN.

Russia's Ministry of Defence said Saturday that it had launched hypersonic Kinzhal missiles against a military ammunitions warehouse in western Ukraine on Friday, destroying the structure in the Ukrainian village of Delyatin. CNN is unable to independently verify this claim. 

Traveling at Mach 5 speed or faster, hypersonic weapons are difficult to detect, posing a challenge to missile defense systems. Hypersonic missiles can travel at a far lower trajectory than high-arcing ballistic missiles, which can be easily detectable. Hypersonics can also maneuver and evade missile defense systems.

The Pentagon has made developing hypersonic weapons one of its top priorities, particularly as China and Russia are working to develop their own versions.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-19-22/h_e258f4d62704c278417a897db16cac80

 

[TexasTiger 12,848]

Interesting take:

 

[TexasTiger 12,848]

Interesting perspective:

 

[TexasTiger 12,848]

Putin’s TV propagandists appear to be preparing for a redefinition of mission:

 

[Auburnfan91 1,407]

On 3/8/2022 at 6:13 PM, Auburnfan91 said:

Instead of trying to come to an agreement with Russia that Ukraine remain neutral and not join NATO which would end the war, that path seems to be completely disregarded. The U.S. would rather more Ukrainians suffer in this war than agree to the terms that Russia wants in order to end it. The U.S. appears to be trending toward a Syria style war in Ukraine. They're going to keep sending weapons and arming rebels in Ukraine to keep Russia bogged down in Ukraine for as long as possible. The U.S. doesn't want to end the war.

This is how its been playing out. Zelenskyy has chosen to keep the war going instead of accepting that Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk are now part of Russia. It's ridiculous that Zelenskyy only wants an agreement if Russia gives them back. Ukraine hasn't controlled those areas since 2014. Those regions didn't support the new Ukraine government in 2014. Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea region want to side with Russia and want Ukraine to be peaceful with Russia. They opposed the 2014 coup. Central and Western Ukraine have been anti-Russia and supported the 2014 coup. They want to oppose Russia.

Zelenskyy keeps demanding more weapons and money from the U.S. to keep the war going. He's banned his opposition and political opponents in Ukraine. He had one of his political opponents Viktor Medvedchuk arrested by the Ukraine secret service.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/12/zelenskyy-ukraine-arrested-viktor-medvedchuk-pro-putin-politician.html

Some mayors in Eastern Ukraine have been killed by the Ukraine military because they were accused of collaborating with Russia. Some democracy. If you oppose Zelenskyy and the Ukraine government's actions then they consider you a traitor.

Zelenskyy is proving to be just as much of a dictator as Putin. He doesn't want a democracy, he wants to stamp out pro-Russia Ukrainians and only wants Ukrainians to support the Ukraine government.

[Auburnfan91 1,407]

In 2010, Viktor Yanukovych was elected president of Ukraine. He wanted Ukraine to be a neutral state and rejected joining the EU and wouldn't join NATO.

If you look at the map of the 2010 election results the Donbas region, along with the rest of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, voted for Yanukovych. In 2014 the U.S. backed a coup that overthrew the Yanukovych government and installed a new Ukraine government that was anti-Russia. The Donbas region rebelled against the new Ukraine government and became controlled by pro-Russian separatists. The Ukraine government has waged war with the separatists in the Donbas region since 2014. 

In 2019, after 5 years of fighting, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected president. He campaigned on ending the war in Donbas and having peace. With pressure from Kiev(Ukraine parliament) he reneged on his campaign promise to end the war in the Donbas region. He only escalated tensions with continuous calls of Ukraine joining NATO and asking the U.S. for more weapons.

[Auburnfan91 1,407]

Trump wants to see an agreement made to end the war. There's no doubt imo that if Trump were president he'd help spur an agreement. The bipartisanship in Congress and the current administration doesn't want an agreement. They want a proxy war with Russia.

[Auburnfan91 1,407]

This is an illuminating exchange.

[TexasTiger 12,848]

13 hours ago, Auburnfan91 said:

Trump wants to see an agreement made to end the war. There's no doubt imo that if Trump were president he'd help spur an agreement. The bipartisanship in Congress and the current administration doesn't want an agreement. They want a proxy war with Russia.

Trump would want an agreement on Putin’s terms that awarded his aggression. Saying “okay, you wanted all of Ukraine, we’ll split the difference and give you the South & East. You get the entire Black Sea coast.” Why would Putin go to all this trouble just to go back to where things were? 
 

 

[Auburnfan91 1,407]

10 hours ago, TexasTiger said:

Trump would want an agreement on Putin’s terms that awarded his aggression. Saying “okay, you wanted all of Ukraine, we’ll split the difference and give you the South & East. You get the entire Black Sea coast.” Why would Putin go to all this trouble just to go back to where things were? 
 

 

Ukraine's military intelligence chief has stated that Putin plans to split Ukraine in two. 

Like North and South Korea.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/27/putin-wants-korean-scenario-for-ukraine-says-intelligence-chief

One of the main goals for Russia now is to create a land corridor to the Crimean peninsula.

[TexasTiger 12,848]

2 minutes ago, Auburnfan91 said:

Ukraine's military intelligence chief has stated that Putin plans to split Ukraine in two. 

Like North and South Korea.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/27/putin-wants-korean-scenario-for-ukraine-says-intelligence-chief

One of the main goals for Russia now is to create a land corridor to the Crimean peninsula.

Guess which is one would end up most like North Korea?

[homersapien 11,370]

On 3/15/2022 at 10:28 AM, autigeremt said:

Hell that can be said of a lot of people who are absolute idiots. Orange man, a staunch NYC Democrat at one point in his life, is a theatric who hates losing....at anything. He's about himself....an outward display of what it wrong with humanity. The only difference between he and 95% of the political elite is his personality and tactics. He's out in the open for the world to see.....the rest do it behind the veil of respect. 

If that's the case, then we obviously need to change the constitution as our current constitution is clearly failing. 

First, and foremost, we need to reduce the amount of money in politics - perhaps by federal funding of elections.  We should also regulate the ability of politicians to move into lobbying and/or regulate lobbying itself.

We need to also look into things like proportional voting or maybe even switching our whole structure into a parliamentary system.  Most parliamentary systems work better than our system.

Bottom line, expecting people to change and suddenly start acting in a way that doesn't reward themselves personally ain't gonna happen.

Our politicians won't change until the system changes.

[TexasTiger 12,848]

Good thread. The latter part on messaging is key. Our Sec of Def got off message last week.

https://twitter.com/IanKearns_/status/1520843089627295745?s=20&t=JwMbfUyQ_1x4s92wVBHzwA

[DKW 86 7,419]

On 4/29/2022 at 4:04 PM, homersapien said:

If that's the case, then we obviously need to change the constitution as our current constitution is clearly failing. 

First, and foremost, we need to reduce the amount of money in politics - perhaps by federal funding of elections.  We should also regulate the ability of politicians to move into lobbying and/or regulate lobbying itself.

We need to also look into things like proportional voting or maybe even switching our whole structure into a parliamentary system.  Most parliamentary systems work better than our system.

Bottom line, expecting people to change and suddenly start acting in a way that doesn't reward themselves personally ain't gonna happen.

Our politicians won't change until the system changes.

Add in Blind Trusts for all Investments. And Micromanaging all PACS.
Of course this is fantasy at this point. You would have to outlaw Citizens United and that will never happen. 
The tech oligarchs are firmly in control now and both parties are too wildy addicted to the money.