2014 Recruiting Board (Updated 2/14/14)

[ellitor 33,113]

http://auburn.247spo...-class-20039805

"I expect Auburn to sign close to 25 b4 all is said and done."

I know WEAU. Again I was talking about the 2015 class and because of that I thought you logically followed that by saying Brtan says 25 meaning Bryan says we have 25 seniors in the next class. You did not clarify in your OP that the Bryan says 25 meant we sign 25 in this class.

[WarEagleAU 0]

I think it is relevant to note that WarEagleAU's list of needs totals 25 (assuming 3 OLs), and we can sign 28 at this point (3 EEs+25), so there is wiggle room for increases at some positions. Perhaps 4 LBs instead of 3? Think Williams, Davis, Evans, and McMillan). Or 4 DEs? Think Thornton. Kennion, A Williams, and Carter.

It would not be a good idea to use that wiggle room IMO given we are losing 26 next year.

???? I would think as far as roster management is concerned you would want to get them on the roster in '14. Then they will be in training so they will be a year older and stronger by the time we lose those 26 at the end of the '14 season.

If you could sign as many as you want then yes. But let's say we sihn the max of 28 this year. Then we get to 2015 class and lose the 25 seniors plus 5 or 6 to attrition. Because we signed the max in 2014 then we would only be able to sign 25 in 3015. That would leave us 5 or 6 short because of what we signed in 2014. I just think with losing 25 seniors plus DQ (oh and 27 if G-Rob goes pro after his junior year as most think) it would be a good idea to have a 5 scholly buffer in 2015 to maintain at max capacity after we reach it after this class.

make sense. Agreed.

[WarEagleAU 0]

Updated (7/22/13):

OC Josh Casher decommitted from Auburn

OC Andrew Marshall added.

WR Lawrence Lee (FL) commits to Mizzou (removed).

[aupops2 9]

Now I'm more confused than ever; besides, I was just having some fun speculating who might be the late arrivals to our 2014 class; i.e. Daniels, Mix, etc,. BTW, for those who think utk is finished at 24, just know they are planning on 30-31.

[ellitor 33,113]

Now I'm more confused than ever; besides, I was just having some fun speculating who might be the late arrivals to our 2014 class; i.e. Daniels, Mix, etc,. BTW, for those who think utk is finished at 24, just know they are planning on 30-31.

If they can sign all their 2013 EEs to 2012 the can sign up to 32.

[WarEagleAU 0]

Updated (7/23/13):

Removed:

WR Ermon Lane (close to decision)

DE Cory Thomas (close to decision)

Added:

DT Braxton Hoyett

[Mikey 16,710]

Now I'm more confused than ever; besides, I was just having some fun speculating who might be the late arrivals to our 2014 class; i.e. Daniels, Mix, etc,. BTW, for those who think utk is finished at 24, just know they are planning on 30-31.

We can sign 28 for 2014, assuming that three of them are early enrolees. I think the only reason we wouldn't sign 28 would be because we couldn't get 28 prospects that the coaches think can help us. By the time the 2015 class shows up to get counted in August of that year there will have been plenty of attrition to provide for openings for the full '15 class of at least 25.

[IronMan70 3,277]

Now I'm more confused than ever; besides, I was just having some fun speculating who might be the late arrivals to our 2014 class; i.e. Daniels, Mix, etc,. BTW, for those who think utk is finished at 24, just know they are planning on 30-31.

We can sign 28 for 2014, assuming that three of them are early enrolees. I think the only reason we wouldn't sign 28 would be because we couldn't get 28 prospects that the coaches think can help us. By the time the 2015 class shows up to get counted in August of that year there will have been plenty of attrition to provide for openings for the full '15 class of at least 25.

Mikey, as you say you want to take players that help us. I don't know about you but I believe in maxing out every year if possible. If you are maxing out subject to 85/25, by definition you are continuing to get as close to a full 85 roster as possible.

You start saving slots to push into next year to use as EEs, then your pool of players that can use those slots gets smaller. If you have good players now, take them so they can help sooner and get them into the S&C program. Unless I am missing something that's how I look at this.

[ellitor 33,113]

Now I'm more confused than ever; besides, I was just having some fun speculating who might be the late arrivals to our 2014 class; i.e. Daniels, Mix, etc,. BTW, for those who think utk is finished at 24, just know they are planning on 30-31.

We can sign 28 for 2014, assuming that three of them are early enrolees. I think the only reason we wouldn't sign 28 would be because we couldn't get 28 prospects that the coaches think can help us. By the time the 2015 class shows up to get counted in August of that year there will have been plenty of attrition to provide for openings for the full '15 class of at least 25.

Mikey, as you say you want to take players that help us. I don't know about you but I believe in maxing out every year if possible. If you are maxing out subject to 85/25, by definition you are continuing to get as close to a full 85 roster as possible.

You start saving slots to push into next year to use as EEs, then your pool of players that can use those slots get smaller. If you have good players now, take them so they can help sooner and get them into the S&C program. Unless I am missing something that's how I look at this.

Normally your thinking is very logical but this year's juniors will be seniors next year. Right now that is a very unusually large graduating class of 25 players. To get as close to 85 after both the 2014 and 2015 classes using your method we will have to have some attrition specifically with this junior class before they become seniors. If we sign close to the max this year with little or no attrition from the junior class then we will be about 4-6 short next year when you add the 25 graduating plus attrition. 2 already very likely for then are DQ and G-Rob going pro. We can get at or close to the max of 85 by signing 23 in the 2014 class and also have 5 extra slots to help handle the next huge graduating class plus attrition for that year.

[IronMan70 3,277]

Now I'm more confused than ever; besides, I was just having some fun speculating who might be the late arrivals to our 2014 class; i.e. Daniels, Mix, etc,. BTW, for those who think utk is finished at 24, just know they are planning on 30-31.

We can sign 28 for 2014, assuming that three of them are early enrolees. I think the only reason we wouldn't sign 28 would be because we couldn't get 28 prospects that the coaches think can help us. By the time the 2015 class shows up to get counted in August of that year there will have been plenty of attrition to provide for openings for the full '15 class of at least 25.

Mikey, as you say you want to take players that help us. I don't know about you but I believe in maxing out every year if possible. If you are maxing out subject to 85/25, by definition you are continuing to get as close to a full 85 roster as possible.

You start saving slots to push into next year to use as EEs, then your pool of players that can use those slots get smaller. If you have good players now, take them so they can help sooner and get them into the S&C program. Unless I am missing something that's how I look at this.

Normally your thinking is very logical but this year's juniors will be seniors next year. Right now that is a very unusually large graduating class of 25 players. To get as close to 85 after both the 2014 and 2015 classes using your method we will have to have some attrition specifically with this junior class before they become seniors. If we sign close to the max this year with little or no attrition from the junior class then we will be about 4-6 short next year when you add the 25 graduating plus attrition. 2 already very likely for then are DQ and G-Rob going pro. We can get at or close to the max of 85 by signing 23 in the 2014 class and also have 5 extra slots to help handle the next huge graduating class plus attrition for that year.

This is the part that I cant seem to understand. If we take those 5 players with the '14 class now then we already have them, plus, they are a year older and stronger when the '15 class comes in. Just seems to make sense to me. Maybe you could PM me and explain further so I don't take up the thread with questions.

[ValleyTiger 2,894]

Normally your thinking is very logical but this year's juniors will be seniors next year. Really? That's unusual?

Sorry E, couldn't get past that part. Still appreciate your work, though! Keep it up brother.

[ellitor 33,113]

Now I'm more confused than ever; besides, I was just having some fun speculating who might be the late arrivals to our 2014 class; i.e. Daniels, Mix, etc,. BTW, for those who think utk is finished at 24, just know they are planning on 30-31.

We can sign 28 for 2014, assuming that three of them are early enrolees. I think the only reason we wouldn't sign 28 would be because we couldn't get 28 prospects that the coaches think can help us. By the time the 2015 class shows up to get counted in August of that year there will have been plenty of attrition to provide for openings for the full '15 class of at least 25.

Mikey, as you say you want to take players that help us. I don't know about you but I believe in maxing out every year if possible. If you are maxing out subject to 85/25, by definition you are continuing to get as close to a full 85 roster as possible.

You start saving slots to push into next year to use as EEs, then your pool of players that can use those slots get smaller. If you have good players now, take them so they can help sooner and get them into the S&C program. Unless I am missing something that's how I look at this.

Normally your thinking is very logical but this year's juniors will be seniors next year. Right now that is a very unusually large graduating class of 25 players. To get as close to 85 after both the 2014 and 2015 classes using your method we will have to have some attrition specifically with this junior class before they become seniors. If we sign close to the max this year with little or no attrition from the junior class then we will be about 4-6 short next year when you add the 25 graduating plus attrition. 2 already very likely for then are DQ and G-Rob going pro. We can get at or close to the max of 85 by signing 23 in the 2014 class and also have 5 extra slots to help handle the next huge graduating class plus attrition for that year.

This is the part that I cant seem to understand. If we take those 5 players with the '14 class now then we already have them, plus, they are a year older and stronger when the '15 class comes in. Just seems to make sense to me. Maybe you could PM me and explain further so I don't take up the thread with questions.

No need to PM you buddy. I can explain here. If you max out the yearly sign limit in the 2014 class yes you have 5 extra players with 1 extra year of experience but it would come at the expense of not being able to be at max roster capacity for the next year because you would only have 25 schollyies to give out in the 2015 class for about 30 if not more open spots. Doing it your way we would be at best 80 scholly players on roster going into the 2015 season. The way I am proposing would have us closer to maxing out the 85 in both the 2014 and 2015 classes. Given the pace of our offense and the physicality of our D we will need to be close to the max of 95 scholly players every year.

[IronMan70 3,277]

Now I'm more confused than ever; besides, I was just having some fun speculating who might be the late arrivals to our 2014 class; i.e. Daniels, Mix, etc,. BTW, for those who think utk is finished at 24, just know they are planning on 30-31.

We can sign 28 for 2014, assuming that three of them are early enrolees. I think the only reason we wouldn't sign 28 would be because we couldn't get 28 prospects that the coaches think can help us. By the time the 2015 class shows up to get counted in August of that year there will have been plenty of attrition to provide for openings for the full '15 class of at least 25.

Mikey, as you say you want to take players that help us. I don't know about you but I believe in maxing out every year if possible. If you are maxing out subject to 85/25, by definition you are continuing to get as close to a full 85 roster as possible.

You start saving slots to push into next year to use as EEs, then your pool of players that can use those slots get smaller. If you have good players now, take them so they can help sooner and get them into the S&C program. Unless I am missing something that's how I look at this.

Normally your thinking is very logical but this year's juniors will be seniors next year. Right now that is a very unusually large graduating class of 25 players. To get as close to 85 after both the 2014 and 2015 classes using your method we will have to have some attrition specifically with this junior class before they become seniors. If we sign close to the max this year with little or no attrition from the junior class then we will be about 4-6 short next year when you add the 25 graduating plus attrition. 2 already very likely for then are DQ and G-Rob going pro. We can get at or close to the max of 85 by signing 23 in the 2014 class and also have 5 extra slots to help handle the next huge graduating class plus attrition for that year.

This is the part that I cant seem to understand. If we take those 5 players with the '14 class now then we already have them, plus, they are a year older and stronger when the '15 class comes in. Just seems to make sense to me. Maybe you could PM me and explain further so I don't take up the thread with questions.

No need to PM you buddy. I can explain here. If you max out the yearly sign limit in the 2014 class yes you have 5 extra players with 1 extra year of experience but it would come at the expense of not being able to be at max roster capacity for the next year because you would only have 25 schollyies to give out in the 2015 class for about 30 if not more open spots. Doing it your way we would be at best 80 scholly players on roster going into the 2015 season. The way I am proposing would have us closer to maxing out the 85 in both the 2014 and 2015 classes. Given the pace of our offense and the physicality of our D we will need to be close to the max of 95 scholly players every year.

I will take your word for it then. I'll just enjoy the final product and not be concerned with how the sausage is made, lol.

[au_bsci_04 407]

The other issue and reason to leave more room for next class is that we are severely behind in relationships with this class and likely not getting the top talent we could had the staff been in place longer. We are forging those relationships with the 15' class now (notice all of the 15' and 16' visitors lately?) and planning on taking a huge class next year, with the open slots left from this class, as E mentioned above.

[IronMan70 3,277]

The other issue and reason to leave more room for next class is that we are severely behind in relationships with this class and likely not getting the top talent we could had the staff been in place longer. We are forging those relationships with the 15' class now (notice all of the 15' and 16' visitors lately?) and planning on taking a huge class next year, with the open slots left from this class, as E mentioned above.

" If " we can't get the same quality this year, that makes a lot of sense.

[ValleyTiger 2,894]

Ok after crunching the numbers myself, I'd like to expound on what Ellitor has already stated. We currently have 80 total on scholarship, 14 seniors, and 24 juniors.

If Auburn were to sign the maximum number of signees (28) in the '14 class and max in the '15 class (25), we would need to see a total of 10 players lost to attrition (9 in '13 cycle and 1 in '14 cycle) to be at the 85 player limit.

Ellitor's proposal:

If Auburn were to sign 23 signees in the '14 class and max in the '15 class (now 30, 5 to count back + 25), we would only need to see a total of 10 players lost to attrition (4 in '13 cycle and 6 in '14 cycle) to be at the 85 player limit.

The key is to stay near the 85 limit and it would be a fluid situation with players leaving early for the draft, transfers, etc. counting as attrition, but this was an objective way of looking at the situation that I believed would shed some light. Of course, you also have the dynamic of signees actually qualifying. The small senior class is obviously the reason for the high attrition rate necessary to stay under the 85 limit granted we sign large classes.

**Double goof edited.

[WarEagleAU 0]

Ok after crunching the numbers myself, I'd like to expound on what Ellitor has already stated. We currently have 80 total on scholarship, 14 seniors, and 24 juniors.

If Auburn were to sign the maximum number of signees (28) in the '13 class and max in the '14 class (25), we would need to see a total of 19 players lost to attrition (9 in '13 cycle and 10 in '14 cycle) to be at the 85 player limit.

Ellitor's proposal:

If Auburn were to sign 23 signees in the '13 class and max in the '14 class (now 30, 5 to count back + 25), we would only need to see a total of 14 players lost to attrition (4 in '13 cycle and 10 in '14 cycle) to be at the 85 player limit.

The key is to stay near the 85 limit and it would be a fluid situation with players leaving early for the draft, transfers, etc. counting as attrition, but this was an objective way of looking at the situation that I believed would shed some light. Of course, you also have the dynamic of signees actually qualifying. The small senior class is obviously the reason for the high attrition rate necessary to stay under the 85 limit granted we sign large classes.

23? I thought it was 24 (Jimmy Hutchinson's scholarship granted)

[ValleyTiger 2,894]

23? I thought it was 24 (Jimmy Hutchinson's scholarship granted)

Ah, I goofed on the class years. Edited above. Thanks

[WarEagleAU 0]

ValleyTiger & Ellitor - I could be wrong but...

80 scholarships - 2013 Fall

Subtract 14 seniors

66 scholarships - Before 2014 NSD

Add 25 signees

91 scholarships - After 2014 NSD (6 players lost to attrition)

85 scholarships - 2014 Fall

Subtract 24 seniors

61 scholarships - Before 2015 NSD

Add 30 signees

91 scholarships - After 2015 NSD (6 players lost to attrition)

[ValleyTiger 2,894]

ValleyTiger & Ellitor - I could be wrong but...

80 scholarships - 2013 Fall

Subtract 14 seniors

66 scholarships - Before 2014 NSD

Add 25 signees

91 scholarships - After 2014 NSD (6 players lost to attrition)

85 scholarships - 2014 Fall

Subtract 24 seniors

61 scholarships - Before 2015 NSD

Add 30 28 signees if you signed 25 in '14 (w/ 3 counting back to '13), you could carry forward 3 slots to '15 so you could only sign 28 in '15

91 89 scholarships - After 2015 NSD (6 4 players lost to attrition)

It's a fluid situation, change one variable and you have to re-work the whole equation.

[ValleyTiger 2,894]

Edited the post above again. Carried the attrition over from year to year. It's not hard but confusing which is one reason why Craig, Garner, and Malzahn get paid the big bucks and not me.

[WarEagleAU 0]

Edited the post above again. Carried the attrition over from year to year. It's not hard but confusing which is one reason why Craig, Garner, and Malzahn get paid the big bucks and not me. :bow:/>

Gotcha. WDE!

[ellitor 33,113]

Edited the post above again. Carried the attrition over from year to year. It's not hard but confusing which is one reason why Craig, Garner, and Malzahn get paid the big bucks and not me. :bow:/>

Gotcha. WDE!

Thanks for reminding me we have 24 instead of 25 graduating next year guys. That's what I get for looking at a pay sites numbers. lol To go along with that 24 DQ is a high probability to leave too.

[Mikey 16,710]

Y'all please remember that AVERAGE attrition from one year to the next is almost always seven to nine dropouts. We had 12 this year, but that's expected in years of a coaching change.

Most long-range planners I've seen on message boards forget to include normal attrition. Normally a team can sign close to 25 every year and not run into trouble with the 85 limit because of attrition. Career ending injuries, early NFL guys, early graduates, transfers to smaller schools, trouble with the law or drugs, they add up.

Example: Of the 80 on scholarship right now, expect from 14 to 18 of them to be gone by August of 2015. That does not include graduates.

[ellitor 33,113]

Y'all please remember that AVERAGE attrition from one year to the next is almost always seven to nine dropouts. We had 12 this year, but that's expected in years of a coaching change.

You are counting since before Gus took over. Since he took the job we have had 5 or 6 to this point according to an al.com article written the other day.