NCAA Tourney projections (After Arky series)

[ellitor 33,104]

The first projection was just released & has Auburn in and not on the bubble line.

Link

[AU64 10,122]

Would be quite nice to remove any doubt and beat Bama on Tuesday....but looks like the drive to the end of the season with series wins over three good teams was enough to satisfy the critics (those outside of AU at least) and get us a shot at the NCAA this season. Should be a good crowd in Hoover....can't be there but will be watching and cheering anyway.

[PowerOfDixieland 3,226]

From Baseball America -

"The Tigers earned the No. 10 seed in the SEC tournament and will face rival Alabama in Tuesday’s single-elimination round; both teams could get at-large bids, but the winner of that game will have to sweat a lot less on Selection Monday."

http://www.baseballa...rong-finishers/

And for those who put stock in what Phillip Marshall says -

"My opinion remains that it will take at least a win over Alabama and maybe more...."

I believe the SEC is going to be let down after next Monday, there is just not enough differentiation after the top five.

By the way, UGa is in the market for a new coach. Perno was finally given his walking papers over the weekend.

[ellitor 33,104]

Nice spin job there POD only telling half the story. You left this very important part out of that Baseball America article.

we’ll include the Tigers in our field of 64 in Tuesday’s Stock Report.

Link

[ellitor 33,104]

Another region projection, another Auburn in and not on the bubble line. This time in the Oregon region. Link

[PowerOfDixieland 3,226]

Nice spin job there POD only telling half the story. You left this very important part out of that Baseball America article.

we’ll include the Tigers in our field of 64 in Tuesday’s Stock Report.

Link

What spin? Link provided, you can read, it's pretty straight-forward. The pro-Pawlowski bunch is pretty thin skinned these days, sitting on pins and needles while our baseball program is perched precariously on a cliff. The proverbial frog in an increasingly hot pot of water, and all is well. If you want spin, think about this: We have won 26 conference games over the last two seasons. Vanderbilt just won their 26th conference game this past Saturday. There's a ridiculous punch line waiting there, spin that any way you want to.

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

POD, as much as I've come to respect your opinion on baseball and other auburn sports, I'm going to have to say this: it's not about what CJP has done in years past; right now, this team has an opportunity to get into a regional, and I think this thread focuses on giving the Auburn family a sense of hope that they are being recognized by someone else as an ncaa tournament- worthy baseball team. I think it's just time to stop dogging CJP for this time period, and focus on the opportunity to play our way to a national championship. This team, although on the bubble, has fought to get where they are, and I think it's time for all of us to become fans again, then evaluate what goes on in the dugout after the season, whatever the outcome may be. I'm not arguing with you, because in all honesty, I see your point, and agree with you to an extent, but right now, as the Auburn Family, it's time to cheer for something again, and it's time to focus in on what is happening right now for this team. War Eagle POD!

[AU64 10,122]

Good luck brotha......some folks on this board are worse than the bammers on al.com....just can't find it in themselves to say anything positive about AU sports..... no matter what's going on at any given time they can always find the downside to it.

[ellitor 33,104]

POD, as much as I've come to respect your opinion on baseball and other auburn sports, I'm going to have to say this: it's not about what CJP has done in years past; right now, this team has an opportunity to get into a regional, and I think this thread focuses on giving the Auburn family a sense of hope that they are being recognized by someone else as an ncaa tournament- worthy baseball team. I think it's just time to stop dogging CJP for this time period, and focus on the opportunity to play our way to a national championship. This team, although on the bubble, has fought to get where they are, and I think it's time for all of us to become fans again, then evaluate what goes on in the dugout after the season, whatever the outcome may be. I'm not arguing with you, because in all honesty, I see your point, and agree with you to an extent, but right now, as the Auburn Family, it's time to cheer for something again, and it's time to focus in on what is happening right now for this team. War Eagle POD!

I am not on the CJP bandwagon but THIS^^^^^^ = Truth. The BLIND NEGATIVITY from some in this family despite being shown facts to the contrary is downright appalling. This thread is about THIS TEAM, RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW! We will focus on CJP after the season so there is no need nor point for POD or anyone else continue their CJP witch hunt at this time. THIS TEAM has shown a lot of heart and done what everyone 3 weeks ago thought was impossible. They took 6 of 9 games from 3 teams who will be in the NCAAs. THIS TEAM has arguably been a top 30 team in the country since Conner Kendrick was moved into the rotation.

[Mikey 16,625]

Good luck brotha......some folks on this board are worse than the bammers on al.com....just can't find it in themselves to say anything positive about AU sports..... no matter what's going on at any given time they can always find the downside to it.

I say positive things when positive things happen. There hasn't been much positive in our baseball program for a number of years now and it's getting way past old.

Before we count our NCAA appearance, let's consider:

There has never been an SEC team with 17 conference losses invited to the NCAA tournament. (we have 17 conference losses)

We finished dead last in the SEC West, not something that a committee will look on with fondness.

They weight out of conference games heavily and we did not schedule ONE SINGLE major OOC opponent.

Just two(maybe three) years ago LSU finished 13-17 in the league, they had a better overall W/L record than we do and their RPI was 28. They did not get into the NCAA.

I think we have to beat UAT to have even the slightest chance of making a regional. More likely it will take winning tomorrow and going no worse than 1-2 the rest of the way in the SEC.

QUOTE:"THIS TEAM has arguably been a top 30 team in the country since Conner Kendrick was moved into the rotation." Except that top 30 teams do not routinely get runners picked off base, caught between bases or thrown out while trying to do the impossible.

[PowerOfDixieland 3,226]

POD, as much as I've come to respect your opinion on baseball and other auburn sports, I'm going to have to say this: it's not about what CJP has done in years past; right now, this team has an opportunity to get into a regional, and I think this thread focuses on giving the Auburn family a sense of hope that they are being recognized by someone else as an ncaa tournament- worthy baseball team. I think it's just time to stop dogging CJP for this time period, and focus on the opportunity to play our way to a national championship. This team, although on the bubble, has fought to get where they are, and I think it's time for all of us to become fans again, then evaluate what goes on in the dugout after the season, whatever the outcome may be. I'm not arguing with you, because in all honesty, I see your point, and agree with you to an extent, but right now, as the Auburn Family, it's time to cheer for something again, and it's time to focus in on what is happening right now for this team. War Eagle POD!

I'm with you. You can go back and look at many in-game posts to see where I stand on most of these players (particularly over the last couple of weeks). I would like nothing better than to go see this group in Omaha, I will absolutely be there if that happens. I just thought this was a board for honest, informed dialogue. So I'll get on the band-wagon, but I'm out of the discussion. War Eagle Brotha'.

[autigeremt 6,643]

Lets beat the turds! That's all I'm looking at right now.

[ellitor 33,104]

There has never been an SEC team with 17 conference losses invited to the NCAA tournament. (we have 17 conference losses)

Care to try again?

2003 Florida made it in with a 13-16 record without being in the SEC Tourney Miami region 2003 SEC Standings

2004 Miss St. made it in at 13-17 in the SEC and without making the SEC tourney. Ga.Tech Region 2004 standings

2005 Arky and Auburn made it in the the NCAAs at 13-17 and Auburn did it without making the SEC Tourney. Guess what. Both teams not only made it but were comfortably in as #2 seeds. Also Miss St was a 2 seed at 13-16 and would have been in without winning the SEC Tourney 2005 NCAA Regional Participants 2005 Standings

2006 Miss St. made it in even being worse than 13-17. They were 12-17 and did not make the SEC tourney. Clemson Regional 2006 Standings

2009 Vandy made it at 12-17 Louisville Regional 2009 Standings

We finished dead last in the SEC West, not something that a committee will look on with fondness.

That stat is misleading since the schedules are now so unbalanced. If you look at conference wide yes but if you look at West only opponents, which will have 6 and possible all 7 teams in the NCAAs if TAMU makes a long run in the SEC Tourney, then you have a different story. Since you only play 4 of the 7 teams in the other division conference schedules are not made equal nor should they be judged equally. In West only games Auburn is 5th in the division at 8-10, comfortably ahead of Bama 6-11 and TAMU 5-12

They weight out of conference games heavily and we did not schedule ONE SINGLE major OOC opponent.

Fair enough but if you look at most of the bubble teams Auburn's OOC schedule is no weaker than most of them.

Just two years ago LSU finished 13-17 in the league, they had a better overall W/L record than we do and their RPI was 28. They did not get into the NCAA.

LSU being left out in 2011 was an aboration and was the only time an SEC team with an overall record over .500 missed the NCAA's with an RPI better than 30. Them being left out in 2011 is the reason the SEC expanded the SEC tourney from 8 to 10 teams in 2012. It was so teams on the bubble could play their way in the NCAAs. Had the SEC tourney been 10 teams the SEC would have very likely gotten 1 more team in. Auburn would have played LSU in essentially an #8 vs. #9 elimination game. Most people forget that Auburn was in every projection if they could qualify. Auburn was 29-29 and needed 1 more win to qualify due to the rule that every team in the NCAAs must be over .500 in overall record.

I think we have to beat UAT to have even the slightest chance of making a regional. More likely it will take winning tomorrow and going no worse than 1-2 the rest of the way in the SEC.

Not according to the projections coming out after the Arky series.

[AU64 10,122]

Careful E....some people don't want to hear that kind of stuff. They've made up their minds and they just ain't gonna be happy with anything that this team does until CJP is gone. If they beat Bama today, count on seeing a few negative comments about how mediocre Bama is and the game really means nothing....and besides, the coach left Kendrick in too long....or took him out too quickly. And if Bama were to win...I can't imagine it. Their reservoir of negativism is bottomless.

[Mikey 16,625]

There has never been an SEC team with 17 conference losses invited to the NCAA tournament. (we have 17 conference losses)

Care to try again?

2003 Florida made it in with a 13-16 record without being in the SEC Tourney Miami region 2003 SEC Standings

2004 Miss St. made it in at 13-17 in the SEC and without making the SEC tourney. Ga.Tech Region 2004 standings

2005 Arky and Auburn made it in the the NCAAs at 13-17 and Auburn did it without making the SEC Tourney. Guess what. Both teams not only made it but were comfortably in as #2 seeds. Also Miss St was a 2 seed at 13-16 and would have been in without winning the SEC Tourney 2005 NCAA Regional Participants 2005 Standings

2006 Miss St. made it in even being worse than 13-17. They were 12-17 and did not make the SEC tourney. Clemson Regional 2006 Standings

2009 Vandy made it at 12-17 Louisville Regional 2009 Standings

We finished dead last in the SEC West, not something that a committee will look on with fondness.

That stat is misleading since the schedules are now so unbalanced. If you look at conference wide yes but if you look at West only opponents, which will have 6 and possible all 7 teams in the NCAAs if TAMU makes a long run in the SEC Tourney, then you have a different story. Since you only play 4 of the 7 teams in the other division conference schedules are not made equal nor should they be judged equally. In West only games Auburn is 5th in the division at 8-10, comfortably ahead of Bama 6-11 and TAMU 5-12

They weight out of conference games heavily and we did not schedule ONE SINGLE major OOC opponent.

Fair enough but if you look at most of the bubble teams Auburn's OOC schedule is no weaker than most of them.

Just two years ago LSU finished 13-17 in the league, they had a better overall W/L record than we do and their RPI was 28. They did not get into the NCAA.

LSU being left out in 2011 was an aboration and was the only time an SEC team with an overall record over .500 missed the NCAA's with an RPI better than 30. Them being left out in 2011 is the reason the SEC expanded the SEC tourney from 8 to 10 teams in 2012. It was so teams on the bubble could play their way in the NCAAs. Had the SEC tourney been 10 teams the SEC would have very likely gotten 1 more team in. Auburn would have played LSU in essentially an #8 vs. #9 elimination game. Most people forget that Auburn was in every projection if they could qualify. Auburn was 29-29 and needed 1 more win to qualify due to the rule that every team in the NCAAs must be over .500 in overall record.

I think we have to beat UAT to have even the slightest chance of making a regional. More likely it will take winning tomorrow and going no worse than 1-2 the rest of the way in the SEC.

Not according to the projections coming out after the Arky series.

Well, that will teach me to believe media "experts". "They" said no SEC team with 17 losses had ever been in the NCAA. I didn't check them just as I'm not checking your figures now. I'll just take you at your word and stand corrected that some SEC teams have indeed made it in with 17 losses.

As for fru-fru about why we finished last in the SEC West, it's accurate but not important. Last is last and that as well as our cupcake OOC scheduling will hurt us. How much remains to be seen.

Concerning projections that we are in, maybe I should start paying more attention to those people. After all, I thought they were wrong when they picked Auburn to finish last in the division but they nailed that one so maybe they will be correct again.

[Mikey 16,625]

Careful E....some people don't want to hear that kind of stuff. They've made up their minds and they just ain't gonna be happy with anything that this team does until CJP is gone. If they beat Bama today, count on seeing a few negative comments about how mediocre Bama is and the game really means nothing....and besides, the coach left Kendrick in too long....or took him out too quickly. And if Bama were to win...I can't imagine it. Their reservoir of negativism is bottomless.

If we win while getting sleeping runners picked off the bases, missing cutoff men with throws and walking a bunch of them you will almost certainly hear that AU won in spite of, rather than because of, the coaching.

[ellitor 33,104]

5 more projections have been released

1. Auburn safely in as the 2 seed in the Clemson region Link

2. Baseball America does a stock report only but has Auburn on the bubble but in regardless of the outcome today. Link

3 Auburn safely in as the 2 seed in the Oregon St. Region Link

4 Auburn in as the 3 seed in the Indiana Region and not on the bubble line Link

5 Auburn in as the 3 seed in the North Carolina Region. AKA the region of death. Link

[AUFightingSoldiers 685]

Anywhere but tallahassee. That is where auburn baseball goes to die!

[AU64 10,122]

Careful E....some people don't want to hear that kind of stuff. They've made up their minds and they just ain't gonna be happy with anything that this team does until CJP is gone. If they beat Bama today, count on seeing a few negative comments about how mediocre Bama is and the game really means nothing....and besides, the coach left Kendrick in too long....or took him out too quickly. And if Bama were to win...I can't imagine it. Their reservoir of negativism is bottomless.

If we win while getting sleeping runners picked off the bases, missing cutoff men with throws and walking a bunch of them you will almost certainly hear that AU won in spite of, rather than because of, the coaching.

Believe I saw a few plays like that on the MLB highlights (lowlights) last night too ....but enjoy yourself.

[WarEagle10 77]

A&M just beat UF. Worst thing that could happen to us IMO, other than losing earlier today. That puts a bad feeling in my gut about us and the Big Tourney.

[ellitor 33,104]

A&M just beat UF. Worst thing that could happen to us IMO, other than losing earlier today. That puts a bad feeling in my gut about us and the Big Tourney.

Nope. A&M needs to get to Saturday to have a remote chance of getting in.

[PowerOfDixieland 3,226]

Further proof there is no distinction after the top five. SEC will be lucky to get eight in.

[Mikey 16,625]

Careful E....some people don't want to hear that kind of stuff. They've made up their minds and they just ain't gonna be happy with anything that this team does until CJP is gone. If they beat Bama today, count on seeing a few negative comments about how mediocre Bama is and the game really means nothing....and besides, the coach left Kendrick in too long....or took him out too quickly. And if Bama were to win...I can't imagine it. Their reservoir of negativism is bottomless.

If we win while getting sleeping runners picked off the bases, missing cutoff men with throws and walking a bunch of them you will almost certainly hear that AU won in spite of, rather than because of, the coaching.

Believe I saw a few plays like that on the MLB highlights (lowlights) last night too ....but enjoy yourself.

Did you enjoy seeing exactly what I said above? Because, except for the walks ( insert wild pitch instead) that's exactly what you saw out of Auburn today. I left out the part about errors and bonehead plays like an infielder not having his foot on the base for a forceout, but that sort of thing is so routine with a Pawloski coached team that I didn't think it was worth mentioning.

[autigeremt 6,643]

Only difference between game one and the game today??? The temperature. Auburn pitched well for a good portion of the season, but the fundamentals haven't shown much improvement in the last....3 years.

[WarEagle10 77]

A&M just beat UF. Worst thing that could happen to us IMO, other than losing earlier today. That puts a bad feeling in my gut about us and the Big Tourney.

Nope. A&M needs to get to Saturday to have a remote chance of getting in.

Now how do you know this?