NCAA Tourney projections (After Arky series)

[ellitor 33,102]

A&M just beat UF. Worst thing that could happen to us IMO, other than losing earlier today. That puts a bad feeling in my gut about us and the Big Tourney.

Nope. A&M needs to get to Saturday to have a remote chance of getting in.

Now how do you know this?

I looked at their resumes unlike a lot of people who just make statements based on their disdain for this team (not a shot at all to you by the way) including some reporters who get paid to cover Auburn. While I understand their frustrations, many teams on the bubble deserve the bid even less than Auburn. It's a very mediocre field once you get passed the top 25 or 30 teams. Auburn has major advantages over TAMU. Auburn won the head to head series 2-1 on the road. Auburn's record vs. teams safely on the tourney 9-15, TAMU 7-16. Auburn's record vs. the RPI top 50 11-16, TAMU 9-19. Auburn has 0 horrific losses vs. teams 200 or higher in the RPI, TAMU has 1 loss vs. Illinois-Chicago (RPI 213)

[PowerOfDixieland 3,226]

unlike a lot of people who just make statements based on their disdain for this team....

What a gutless, throw away comment. The statements that have been made are for absolutely the opposite reason. Because (Auburn) "people" want better for this team. They want this team to win 26 conference games, not over two seasons, but in one like Vandy. I want for this team to be mentioned in the same sentence with LSU and South Carolina, not Tennessee and Georgia. I'd like to be making plans to be in Hoover the rest of the week and in Auburn for a regional or super. Not hoping we're playing in freaking Corvalis or Eugene Oregon. My disappointment is with the coaching staff and more particularly with the AD because I am just about convinced there will be no change in the head coaching spot and we will be having this very same discussion on this very same day in 2014.

And by the way, you're the only one that took a rip at a particular player yesterday. But in typical gutless fashion you wouldn't even call him by name. Something like "...a guy hitting .230 who cost the team a number of games all by himself with his completely pathetic fielding."

http://www.aufamily.com/forums/topic/131491-bama-game-5/page__st__135

[Charleston Tiger 134]

E, in your opinion, do you think we get the nod or are we watching this from the sidelines when it's all said and done?

[ellitor 33,102]

unlike a lot of people who just make statements based on their disdain for this team....

What a gutless, throw away comment. The statements that have been made are for absolutely the opposite reason. Because (Auburn) "people" want better for this team. They want this team to win 26 conference games, not over two seasons, but in one like Vandy. I want for this team to be mentioned in the same sentence with LSU and South Carolina, not Tennessee and Georgia. I'd like to be making plans to be in Hoover the rest of the week and in Auburn for a regional or super. Not hoping we're playing in freaking Corvalis or Eugene Oregon. My disappointment is with the coaching staff and more particularly with the AD because I am just about convinced there will be no change in the head coaching spot and we will be having this very same discussion on this very same day in 2014.

And by the way, you're the only one that took a rip at a particular player yesterday. But in typical gutless fashion you wouldn't even call him by name.

there is no gut or gutless involved. Everyone knows his name. As you, my disappointment is with the coaching staff.. It's for them leaving him as starter given all the runs and games Yak cost the team. I do feel for Yak. I want him to excel on offense and defense but that does not escape the reality that he is a major liability defensively. His defensive problems should have been addressed in recruiting as he made 21 errors last season as well. Based on his poor glove work but good bat from last year the proper solution was to put him at DH and sign a shortstop who has a great glove. If that happens we are easily in the NCAAs right now.

As with my post you quoted, there is no gutless involved. It would be pointless to point out every negative nancy there is regarding this team.There is no need to call them out by name and create needless fights. But my point remains. I bet there are less than 5 people, including guys who normally do their do diligence in Tate and Marshall, that have actually done the work to go through and compare Auburn's resume with other bubble teams. The analysis with A&M is just 1 of about 20 that I have done. If people want to be negative nancies then fine. Just be educated on the other resumes as well so that it is informed negativity as opposed to blind negativity.

[ellitor 33,102]

E, in your opinion, do you think we get the nod or are we watching this from the sidelines when it's all said and done?

If selection is made on the facts of the statistics of the resumes we should be in

[Charleston Tiger 134]

E, in your opinion, do you think we get the nod or are we watching this from the sidelines when it's all said and done?

If selection is made on the facts of the statistics of the resumes we should be in

Thanks for the insight - I don't pretend to have that much idea about the bubbles. Thanks for taking the time to look into it more.

[PowerOfDixieland 3,226]

The SEC play-in game was, as Ellitor pointed out, the direct result/solution after LSU was left out in '11 with a significantly stronger claim and recent history of success than this Auburn team. The SEC play-in game, again as pointed out, was to give those so called bubble teams that were playing well at the end of the season the opportunity to emphatically state their case. In our play-in game we emphatically stated our case and played out.

[ellitor 33,102]

The SEC play-in game was, as Ellitor pointed out, the direct result/solution after LSU was left out in '11 with a significantly stronger claim and recent history of success than this Auburn team. The SEC play-in game, again as pointed out, was to give those so called bubble teams that were playing well at the end of the season the opportunity to emphatically state their case. In our play-in game we emphatically stated our case and played out.

And they should have been in too if the selections were made on comparing resumes. That's why I said should be in my reply to CT. There have also been a couple of SEC teams who, on the basis of resumes were sllightly less deserving, but made the NCAAs. The 2005 Auburn team who was 13-17 in the conference and 32-24 overall is a prime example.

[WarEagle10 77]

A&M beating Vandy 4-0 (on three HR's) going to the 7th.

4-0 going to 8th.

4-0 going to 9th. Vandy has the hammer.

5-0 going to bottom of 9. A&M had a guy picked off of first, snap throw from the catcher, with bases loaded and 2 out.

5-0 Ballgame. A&M has beaten UF and top ranked Vandy on back-to-back days.

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

As long as A&M doesn't win the tournament, we might be okay, but you can never know for sure. It was good that Bama got shutout by LSU today, but hopefully Vandy losing wont hurt us too much.

[ellitor 33,102]

A&M beating Vandy 4-0 (on three HR's) going to the 7th.

They likely need 1 more win to get in. That then would cause problems for Auburn because I do not know the committee will take 10 SEC teams even if they are more deserving than teams from other conferences.

[WarEagle10 77]

A&M beating Vandy 4-0 (on three HR's) going to the 7th.

They likely need 1 more win to get in. That then would cause problems for Auburn because I do not know the committee will take 10 SEC teams even if they are more deserving than teams from other conferences.

Just looked at the RPI's. They were updated yesterday. We are #32. A&M is #44, but they beat #26 yesterday and #1 today, so they will be moving up. bama is #28. I think we are sweating getting in. Hopefully we will, only time will tell.

[tiger88 934]

Ok. Listening to some of the apologists around here I thought Vandy was some unstoppable force that no ordinary team could pray to defeat. Interesting.

[jared52 4,354]

Ok. Listening to some of the apologists around here I thought Vandy was some unstoppable force that no ordinary team could pray to defeat. Interesting.

Anything can happen. Heck they lost to Tennessee Tech and Middle Tennessee State this year too.

[ellitor 33,102]

A&M beating Vandy 4-0 (on three HR's) going to the 7th.

They likely need 1 more win to get in. That then would cause problems for Auburn because I do not know the committee will take 10 SEC teams even if they are more deserving than teams from other conferences.

Just looked at the RPI's. They were updated yesterday. We are #32. A&M is #44, but they beat #26 yesterday and #1 today, so they will be moving up. bama is #28. I think we are sweating getting in. Hopefully we will, only time will tell.

Not sure where you are looking at for RPI but warrennolan.com is the best because it uses the NCAA formula and is updated 30 minutes after each game. Up to date TAMU is 31 and Auburn is 37. RPI alone does not tell the story though. Look at the post I made comparing Auburn and TAMU's resumes.

[AU64 10,122]

It's pretty common that the leading SEC teams lay back in the SEC tournament to get ready for the NCAA tourney. South Carolina won two NCAA championships and was in the final for a third and did not win the SEC tournament any of those years. SEC tournament is only important to the teams at the bottom of the heap. ...which might include AU. For teams with a sure spot in the NCAAs, there is no point wearing out their pitchers in a meaningless tourney.

[WarEagle10 77]

It's pretty common that the leading SEC teams lay back in the SEC tournament to get ready for the NCAA tourney. South Carolina won two NCAA championships and was in the final for a third and did not win the SEC tournament any of those years. SEC tournament is only important to the teams at the bottom of the heap. ...which might include AU. For teams with a sure spot in the NCAAs, there is no point wearing out their pitchers in a meaningless tourney.

The announcers did bring up the point that in USCe back-to back NC's, they went 1-4 in the SEC tourney. Vandy will host a region. They aren't concerned. This helped A&M far more than it hurt Vandy.

[AU64 10,122]

It's pretty common that the leading SEC teams lay back in the SEC tournament to get ready for the NCAA tourney. South Carolina won two NCAA championships and was in the final for a third and did not win the SEC tournament any of those years. SEC tournament is only important to the teams at the bottom of the heap. ...which might include AU. For teams with a sure spot in the NCAAs, there is no point wearing out their pitchers in a meaningless tourney.

The announcers did bring up the point that in USCe back-to back NC's, they went 1-4 in the SEC tourney. Vandy will host a region. They aren't concerned. This helped A&M far more than it hurt Vandy.

Probably so...for Vandy this gives them a chance to keep everyone sharp for a few days and then get ready for the NCAA. Everyone knows that's what usually happens so not sure how much TAMU benefits....but it sure won't hurt them so it's worth a complete effort by their team.

[WarEagle10 77]

A&M beating Vandy 4-0 (on three HR's) going to the 7th.

They likely need 1 more win to get in. That then would cause problems for Auburn because I do not know the committee will take 10 SEC teams even if they are more deserving than teams from other conferences.

Just looked at the RPI's. They were updated yesterday. We are #32. A&M is #44, but they beat #26 yesterday and #1 today, so they will be moving up. bama is #28. I think we are sweating getting in. Hopefully we will, only time will tell.

Not sure where you are looking at for RPI but warrennolan.com is the best because it uses the NCAA formula and is updated 30 minutes after each game. Up to date TAMU is 31 and Auburn is 37. RPI alone does not tell the story though. Look at the post I made comparing Auburn and TAMU's resumes.

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d1

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

A&M beating Vandy 4-0 (on three HR's) going to the 7th.

They likely need 1 more win to get in. That then would cause problems for Auburn because I do not know the committee will take 10 SEC teams even if they are more deserving than teams from other conferences.

Just looked at the RPI's. They were updated yesterday. We are #32. A&M is #44, but they beat #26 yesterday and #1 today, so they will be moving up. bama is #28. I think we are sweating getting in. Hopefully we will, only time will tell.

Not sure where you are looking at for RPI but warrennolan.com is the best because it uses the NCAA formula and is updated 30 minutes after each game. Up to date TAMU is 31 and Auburn is 37. RPI alone does not tell the story though. Look at the post I made comparing Auburn and TAMU's resumes.

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/baseball/d1

Not to be that guy, but E is right. WarrenNolan.com often has the up to date rpi rankings that the NCAA comes out with. It is usually very accurate. I think we put a little too much emphasis on the rpi question though. If many of these teams on the bubble can get knocked off (creighton went 0-2 in their conference tournament for example) and many at large teams can win their conference, Auburn, I think will easily be in. I know that not many put too much of an emphasis on these, but every projection I have seen has us in comfortably. I've seen two created on may 21 before the Bama game that had us as a 2 seed in the Clemson regional, and another had us in the Corvallis regional as a 2 seed. If these are accurate, I have a hard time believing a 2 seed could drop completely out of the tournament in a matter of days...

[ellitor 33,102]

A&M beating Vandy 4-0 (on three HR's) going to the 7th.

They likely need 1 more win to get in. That then would cause problems for Auburn because I do not know the committee will take 10 SEC teams even if they are more deserving than teams from other conferences.

Just looked at the RPI's. They were updated yesterday. We are #32. A&M is #44, but they beat #26 yesterday and #1 today, so they will be moving up. bama is #28. I think we are sweating getting in. Hopefully we will, only time will tell.

Not sure where you are looking at for RPI but warrennolan.com is the best because it uses the NCAA formula and is updated 30 minutes after each game. Up to date TAMU is 31 and Auburn is 37. RPI alone does not tell the story though. Look at the post I made comparing Auburn and TAMU's resumes.

http://www.ncaa.com/...ngs/baseball/d1

Not to be that guy, but E is right. WarrenNolan.com often has the up to date rpi rankings that the NCAA comes out with. It is usually very accurate. I think we put a little too much emphasis on the rpi question though. If many of these teams on the bubble can get knocked off (creighton went 0-2 in their conference tournament for example) and many at large teams can win their conference, Auburn, I think will easily be in. I know that not many put too much of an emphasis on these, but every projection I have seen has us in comfortably. I've seen two created on may 21 before the Bama game that had us as a 2 seed in the Clemson regional, and another had us in the Corvallis regional as a 2 seed. If these are accurate, I have a hard time believing a 2 seed could drop completely out of the tournament in a matter of days...

Posted on pages 1 and 2.

[WarEagle10 77]

Miss. St. beat Mizzou in 16 innings last night. They beat USCe tonight. What a gutsy performance by that bunch.

[tiger88 934]

Nice to see teams rise to the occassion. If we make the tourney I hope we do as well.

[Mikey 16,619]

So, A&M enters the tournament ahead of us, wins two games and is supposedly out while we, a number 10 seed, lose our only game and we're in? I want some of what y'all are smoking.

SEC definitely out of it: UGA, TENN, Ky and Missouri

SEC definitely in: Texas A&M, Vandy, LSU, USCe, Arky, Ole' Miss, M$U, UAT

Auburn & Florida: Wish in one hand, pee in the other and see which hand gets full first. For either of these two to get in the committee will have to take 9 SEC teams and I don't see that happening.

[WarEagle10 77]

So, A&M enters the tournament ahead of us, wins two games and is supposedly out while we, a number 10 seed, lose our only game and we're in? I want some of what y'all are smoking.

SEC definitely out of it: UGA, TENN, Ky and Missouri

SEC definitely in: Texas A&M, Vandy, LSU, USCe, Arky, Ole' Miss, M$U, UAT

Auburn & Florida: Wish in one hand, pee in the other and see which hand gets full first. For either of these two to get in the committee will have to take 9 SEC teams and I don't see that happening.

I hope it doesn't come dow to us or UF. I would think UF is in before A&M.