Who's #1?

[Tigermike 3,046]

Who's #1?

Thursday, December 02, 2004

DOUG SEGREST

News staff writer

We have crunched the numbers and crashed one laptop in pursuit of the eternal question: Who really is college football's No.1 team?

We have taken every measurable category in trying to make an honest comparison between USC, Oklahoma and Auburn only to reach the following conclusion.

Thank goodness we don't have a vote this year.

But that's not good enough. So we've thrown away style points and stuck strictly to the facts.

Ranking the BCS' top three teams in 12 categories, we've come up with our own pecking order: 1.USC: The Trojans led outright in five categories (margin of victory, road record, marquee win, strength of schedule and strength of conference). USC tied Auburn with a 3-0 record against ranked teams and tied Oklahoma with a 5-0 record against teams with winning records.

2.Auburn: The Tigers led outright in four categories (total defense, record vs. teams with nine-plus wins, least number of wins of 10 points or less and closest call against a quality opponent). Auburn tied USC with a 3-0 record against the Top 25.

3.Oklahoma: The Sooners led in just one category (total offense). However, Oklahoma tied USC with five victories against winning teams.

That's how we see it. Decide for yourself after examining each contender up close and personal.

USC TROJANS:

Started the season: Ranked No.1 in both preseason polls (opened 73 points ahead of Oklahoma in the media poll; 78 points ahead in the coaches' poll.)

Storylines: Defending AP national champion. Two legitimate Heisman Trophy candidates in quarterback Matt Leinart and tailback Reggie Bush. Coach Pete Carroll left the NFL to restore the once-proud Los Angeles school to glory. Best player, wide receiver Mike Williams, denied a return to the program for his junior season by the NCAA after declaring for the NFL Draft.

Three reasons why the Trojans should be ranked at the top: 1. USC has played the toughest schedule among the contenders and competes in the Pac 10, which computers say is the nation's best league; 2. Defeated the three Top 25 teams on its schedule by an average of 19 points; 3. Went 5-0 on the road, winning by an average of 16 points.

Three reasons to question the Trojans' credentials: 1. USC had to come from behind five times in victories against Virginia Tech, Stanford, Cal, Oregon State and Notre Dame. 2. USC's closest call, a 31-28 win at Stanford, came against a team that would finish 4-7. 3. Take out Virginia Tech, and USC's three non-conference foes are a combined 15-18.

Inside the numbers: USC's offense ranks 15th, but don't credit the numbers to weak competition. Statistically speaking, USC has played overall better defenses than Oklahoma or Auburn. The average USC opponent ranks 48th in total defense. ... Leinart & Co. posted 41 points or more six times. ... Seven of USC's 11 wins have been by 30-plus points. ... Bush and LenDale White have combined for 1,539 yards and 17 TDs rushing as the Trojans have focused more on ball control.

OKLAHOMA SOONERS:

Started the season : Ranked second in both preseason polls (made up three points on USC in the media poll; 11 points in the coaches' poll.)

Storylines: OU claimed a BCS title game berth last year despite a 35-7 loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game. Quarterback Jason White is the defending Heisman Trophy winner and has thrown just four interceptions in 325 attempts. True freshman Adrian Peterson has rushed for 1,671 yards and 12 TDs. Lost co-defensive coordinator Mike Stoops, who took the head coaching job at Arizona following the 2003 season.

Three reasons why the Sooners should be ranked at the top: 1. Oklahoma is 5-0 against teams with winning records, winning by an average score of 32-21. 2. Played the nation's 23rd-toughest schedule while competing in the No.2-rated conference. 3. Blanked sixth-ranked Texas, which averages 35 points a game.

Three reasons to question the Sooners credentials: 1. Oklahoma had three come-from-behind victories, including one in which it chased down a 21-7 first-half deficit at Texas A&M. 2. Average margin of victory (20.9) is the narrowest of the big three. 3. OU is 2-0 against AP ranked teams, winning by an average score of 27-17.

Inside the numbers: Oklahoma has played the best collection of opposing offenses of the big three. Oklahoma's opponents average ranking 45th nationally in total offense (compared to USC's 64th and Auburn's 66th). ... Oklahoma allowed 35 points in back-to-back wins against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. Yet in five other games, the Sooners defense allowed no more than one touchdown. ... White & Co. posted 40 points or more four times. ... Oklahoma allowed 23 points on the road.

AUBURN TIGERS:

Started the season : Ranked 17th in the preseason AP poll and 18th in the ESPN/USA Today coaches' poll.

Storylines: Coach Tommy Tuberville survived a failed coaching coup that cost the former AU president his job. Offensive coordinator Al Borges, hired from Indiana, has turned quarterback Jason Campbell into a monster who efficiently directs the West Coast offense. Auburn's defense is ranked fourth nationally despite the loss of three NFL draft picks from 2003.

Three reasons why the Tigers should be ranked at the top: 1. Auburn is 3-0 against ranked teams, 4-0 against teams with winning records, and held LSU, Georgia and Tennessee to 10 points or less. 2. Auburn is 3-0 against teams with nine or more wins, defeating them by an average score of 23-8. 3. Auburn has trailed in just two games and only once at halftime.

Three reasons to question the Tigers' credentials: 1. Computers don't like the Tigers. Jeff Sagarin's USA Today rankings claim Auburn has played the nation's 72nd most difficult schedule while the SEC is no better than the fourth-best league. 2. All three non-conference foes had losing records, including Division I-AA The Citadel. 3. Auburn has the least productive offense, statistically, of the big three.

Inside the numbers: There's a simple reason why Auburn's offensive numbers are lower than USC's and Oklahoma's: Auburn played three defenses ranked in the top 12 (No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 LSU and No. 12 Georgia). USC played two defenses of the same caliber while Oklahoma played only two defenses in the top 40. ... Although USC and Oklahoma stumbled against inferior competition, Auburn's closest call was a 10-9, come-from-behind victory against 13th-ranked LSU. ... Against teams with losing records, Auburn won by an average score of 39-10. ... Running backs Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown have combined for 1,799 yards and 19 TDs while Campbell has thrown for 16 TDs against five picks. ... Auburn scored 42-plus points three times.

E-mail: dsegrest@bhamnews.com

Birmingham News

[chinook 0]

i did not see a cc (courtesy copy) proceeding the article to Coaches and AP personnel who vote in the polls.

[BustemBigBlue 178]

Auburn has trailed in just two games and only once at halftime.

Kind of nitpicky here but didn't we trail to both LSU and UAT at the half?

[BamaGrad03 0]

I think, at this point, USC is overwhelmingly #1. #2 is a tossup IMO.

[AUesquire 1]

Shhhhhh!