Proof That College Football Refs Are Riddled With Bias

[japantiger 4,051]

By Bryan Gruley January 09, 2015

On further review, the zebras are biased.

As Oregon and Ohio State prepare to battle for the NCAA football championship, a new study offers what may be the first empirical evidence that something other than rule infractions influences the referees employed by the biggest athletic conferences. Based on a complex analysis of penalty yards assessed over the course of eight seasons, the study by professors at Miami University of Ohio and Florida State University suggests, for instance, that ACC and Big 12 refs tend to penalize home teams less during games between conference rivals. Favored Big Ten teams are penalized fewer yards when playing nonconference teams, the study says, while Big 12 officials appear to punish teams that play faster—a potential concern for the go-go Ducks on Monday night.

These and other examples of bias indicate “considerable variance” in officiating across conferences, the study concludes, even as the monetary stakes mushroom with college football’s new four-team playoff. The researchers urge the NCAA to consider creating a national officiating body rather than have refs hired, fired, and evaluated by conferences.

Unfortunately for college football’s legions of conspiracy theorists (including this writer), the refereeing study does not support the notion that officials secretly help their conference’s strongest teams so the conference can reap the prestige and jackpots offered by bowl games and national titles. “We expected to find that but didn’t,” says Rhett Brymer, the Miami University strategic management professor who led the study. The SEC, which won seven of the eight NCAA championships during the period under review, was found to have officials essentially devoid of bias. ACC refs, on the other hand, were flagged for favoring home teams, betting-line underdogs, and long-time conference members such as Duke and North Carolina.

Indeed, the guys in stripes may not be the scheming power freaks that some fans imagine but mere mortals who carry biases they may be unaware of. The researchers studied officiating in the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12, ACC, and now-defunct Big East conferences from 2005 through 2012. They analyzed the penalty yards assessed in games between conference teams—all of which are officiated by conference refs—then compared that with yards per game levied in games between teams from different conferences. Evidence of bias comes from significant differences in the yards assessed during in-conference games vs. nonconference, measured against such variables as home field, betting-line favorites, and total plays. For instance, the study says, “ACC and Big 12 teams can expect 6.28 and 4.36 fewer penalty yards per game when playing in-conference games at home, but no such advantage when playing out-of-conference games at home.”

Big 12 refs—who will be officiating Monday's first championship game following a playoff—assessed more penalty yards per play in games with more plays than officials from other conferences. In theory, that could be a problem for Oregon’s hurry-up offense, which ran, on average, 77.4 plays per game this season vs. Ohio State’s 74.4, according to TeamRankings.com.

Officials from the ACC and Big 12 didn't respond to requests for comment. Big Ten officials weren't available. A spokeswoman for the NCAA declined to comment.

The study doesn’t account for such subjective officiating decisions as ball spots, possession calls, and pass interference penalties, nor does it attempt to single out pivotal games or evaluate individual refereeing crews. “Methodologically, this is analogous to using a weak telescope to find something in space,” Brymer says. “The fact that we did find something gives validity to something being there.”

Perhaps the study’s oddest finding is that ACC refs may have hurt the conference’s strongest squads despite incentives to do the opposite. That might be due to the conference’s historical identification with basketball and the influence of its four founding North Carolina-based members: “Internal ACC power may be threatened by non-founding schools with strong football that drive much of its revenue," the paper notes. Nonfounders include Florida State, which won the NCAA football title last year.

After submitting the study for possible presentation at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference next month, Brymer sat down and crunched officiating data for 2013-14. In those two years, Florida State’s championship happened to correspond with ACC refs halting their apparent favoritism of conference underdogs. “And strangely," Brymer says, "the SEC picked that bias up."

He and his co-authors argue that taking officiating out of conference hands and having it managed nationally—as it is in most NCAA sports—would help preserve football's integrity while guarding against potential game-fixing and other manipulation. “While centralized officiating is not devoid of partiality, one large uneven playing field is likely preferable to many uneven playing fields,” the study says.

Brymer thinks Oregon will win the title game, although the men in stripes make it a risky prediction: "If Big 12 refs are flag happy with the Ducks' fast pace, which they are prone to do, Oregon could be in trouble."

http://www.businessw...ign_id=DN010915

[cooltigger21 0]

I think we've all pretty much known or at least suspected as much for a long time. I don't know that there is any magic bullet as it were. Even if you put them all under the NCAA umbrella people are going to likely favor teams from the area they are from but it is better than what we have now as the piece pointed out. I've advocated for that for a long time.

[Tiger 8,820]

Very interesting read. I also thought they'd find favorable calls towards teams that could bring in the playoff/BCS money.

But there is, still, no way that the refs in the Ole Miss/Bama game this season didn't have something shady going on in favor of Bama. I've never seen refs try to give a game to one team so hard in my entire life.

[alexava 6,973]

I don't see how a person can know the game so much yet always supposed to care so little about the outcome. There will always be some bias no matter how you police it.

[AU80cruiser 1,102]

Very interesting read. I also thought they'd find favorable calls towards teams that could bring in the playoff/BCS money.

But there is, still, no way that the refs in the Ole Miss/Bama game this season didn't have something shady going on in favor of Bama. I've never seen refs try to give a game to one team so hard in my entire life.

I agree. Some of the non calls and bad calls this year were blatantly obvious and I'm not talking about just on auburn. Four that standout in my mind right now was the face mask against jameis in the championship game, the bama db grabbing the Ole Miss player facemask causing a fumble then bama scoring, the Sammy Coates PI at Miss ST and the facemask called on Auburn at the end of tje South Carolina game when it was actually the South Carolina lineman that facemasked the Auburn player.

[alexava 6,973]

Very interesting read. I also thought they'd find favorable calls towards teams that could bring in the playoff/BCS money.

But there is, still, no way that the refs in the Ole Miss/Bama game this season didn't have something shady going on in favor of Bama. I've never seen refs try to give a game to one team so hard in my entire life.

I agree. Some of the non calls and bad calls this year were blatantly obvious and I'm not talking about just on auburn. Four that standout in my mind right now was the face mask against jameis in the championship game, the bama db grabbing the Ole Miss player facemask causing a fumble then bama scoring, the Sammy Coates PI at Miss ST and the facemask called on Auburn at the end of tje South Carolina game when it was actually the South Carolina lineman that facemasked the Auburn player.

all four terrible. i still usually give refs the benefit of the doubt but sometimes you just say WTH.

[AU64 10,122]

I think it's mostly incompetence and the speed of the game and I doubt that most of them could assess the game situation on any given play and decide to call or not call.

BUT the idea of a Power 5 referee pool with refs assigned from a central point could be pretty good though the NFL is finding that mixing and matching refs does not always work well....even referring is somewhat of a team game and probably better for the same guys to work together all the time.

[AUIH1 1,515]

I think it's mostly incompetence and the speed of the game and I doubt that most of them could assess the game situation on any given play and decide to call or not call.

BUT the idea of a Power 5 referee pool with refs assigned from a central point could be pretty good though the NFL is finding that mixing and matching refs does not always work well....even referring is somewhat of a team game and probably better for the same guys to work together all the time.

Agree with all of this.

wde

[mattarcara 0]

IMO there has been some anti-SEC bias from officials this bowl season. It seems like every call has gone against SEC teams.

[auburnphan 6,050]

I thought that there were questionable calls/non-calls in both the SEC and Big10 Championship games early that help ensure that their team got in to the playoff, my conspiracy theory on the big money

[doc4aday 1,887]

It is almost to the point to where any major penalty call should be reviewed before they access any yardage one way or the other.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

I found this particularly interesting... "In those two years, Florida State’s championship happened to correspond with ACC refs halting their apparent favoritism of conference underdogs. “And strangely," Brymer says, "the SEC picked that bias up.". Doesn't it basically say that the SEC refs were anti-Auburn during our run in 2013?

[AU64 10,122]

Or maybe pro Auburn....??? we won all those games with funky endings.

[AUfan_UAgrad 230]

If they are not willing to make the referee's grades public then why not disclose each teams seasons grades at the end to the committee and have the committee factor that in. To me it should at least get a small consideration.

[AUloggerhead 2,229]

"For instance, the study says, “ACC and Big 12 teams can expect 6.28 and 4.36 fewer penalty yards per game when playing in-conference games at home, but no such advantage when playing out-of-conference games at home.”

Let's back it up a little here: between 6.28 and 4.36 yards ... ... They're kidding right -- significant bias? This is the equivalent of one 5-yd penalty. One. Per game.

I'm interested in improving the officiating as much as anyone but pointing to this weak-azz study as "proof" is ridiculous.

[hutchids 227]

Very interesting read. I also thought they'd find favorable calls towards teams that could bring in the playoff/BCS money.

But there is, still, no way that the refs in the Ole Miss/Bama game this season didn't have something shady going on in favor of Bama. I've never seen refs try to give a game to one team so hard in my entire life.

I agree. Some of the non calls and bad calls this year were blatantly obvious and I'm not talking about just on auburn. Four that standout in my mind right now was the face mask against jameis in the championship game, the bama db grabbing the Ole Miss player facemask causing a fumble then bama scoring, the Sammy Coates PI at Miss ST and the facemask called on Auburn at the end of tje South Carolina game when it was actually the South Carolina lineman that facemasked the Auburn player.

all four terrible. i still usually give refs the benefit of the doubt but sometimes you just say WTH.

Im the same way man. Unless the call is blatant garbage, I give them the benefit of the doubt. Calling penalties live is much harder than it looks. But sometimes, sometimes it's just time to say wth

[CJBas 4]

Very interesting read. I also thought they'd find favorable calls towards teams that could bring in the playoff/BCS money.

But there is, still, no way that the refs in the Ole Miss/Bama game this season didn't have something shady going on in favor of Bama. I've never seen refs try to give a game to one team so hard in my entire life.

I agree with that. In fact, over the years bama has been the recipient of far more than their share of favorable calls from the refs. Pat Dye said so much when talking about the change he saw in the 1982 IB, in seeing refs calling penalties on bama that they never would have before. I gathered in his estimation it was because even they saw that bear was over the hill and bama no longer would be heving everything handed to them.

[Auctoritas 2,828]

"For instance, the study says, “ACC and Big 12 teams can expect 6.28 and 4.36 fewer penalty yards per game when playing in-conference games at home, but no such advantage when playing out-of-conference games at home.”

Let's back it up a little here: between 6.28 and 4.36 yards ... ... They're kidding right -- significant bias? This is the equivalent of one 5-yd penalty. One. Per game.

I'm interested in improving the officiating as much as anyone but pointing to this weak-azz study as "proof" is ridiculous.

They are using "significant" differently than you are. They are talking about statistical significance, which has nothing to do with how big something is.

[AU64 10,122]

Who checking this board did not expect to see a flag thrown on that runback by Davis last year in the Iron Bowl? In the first seconds after he crossed the goal line I would have bet my house that there would be a flag on the ground somewhere back about the AU 20. Just saying, if the refs wanted to carry REC water, someone could have tossed a flag and the game would have gone to OT...or bama would have gotten another kick.

I'm back to my view that generally it is the inability of refs to keep up with the speed of the modern game though it is apparent that refs from various conferences read the rules differently...or have been instructed to emphasize certain types of penalties...same as in basketball.

[war eagle6 0]

I don't think the refs could have survived leaving the stadium if a phantom flag had been throwed

[cooltigger21 0]

Way too many conspiracy people here. There's bias yes but not to the degree of making sure one teams wins a close game.

[looney 794]

"For instance, the study says, “ACC and Big 12 teams can expect 6.28 and 4.36 fewer penalty yards per game when playing in-conference games at home, but no such advantage when playing out-of-conference games at home.”

Let's back it up a little here: between 6.28 and 4.36 yards ... ... They're kidding right -- significant bias? This is the equivalent of one 5-yd penalty. One. Per game.

I'm interested in improving the officiating as much as anyone but pointing to this weak-azz study as "proof" is ridiculous.

They are using "significant" differently than you are. They are talking about statistical significance, which has nothing to do with how big something is.

I had the same initial reaction as AUloggerhead, but then realized that they were speaking in terms of statistical significance mathematically - like Auctorias said.

The problem with this study is that college football is such a momentum-based game and there's no way to measure the actual impact of penalties called at a given time over a large enough sampling of games to determine bias.

For instance - a questionable pass interference call might extend a drive, give a team life, and lead to a game winning score; but over the course of the game, might not mean that much in the total penalty yardage comparison.

I like that people (who are much smarter than I am) are starting to look into this with an objective eye and hopefully we'll learn something definitive from it.

Cool post. Thanks.

[alexava 6,973]

If we only lose the penalty yardage difference by 5, we in good shape.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,662]

"The SEC, which won seven of the eight NCAA championships during the period under review, was found to have officials essentially devoid of bias."

Stopped reading right there

[AUloggerhead 2,229]

"For instance, the study says, “ACC and Big 12 teams can expect 6.28 and 4.36 fewer penalty yards per game when playing in-conference games at home, but no such advantage when playing out-of-conference games at home.”

Let's back it up a little here: between 6.28 and 4.36 yards ... ... They're kidding right -- significant bias? This is the equivalent of one 5-yd penalty. One. Per game.

I'm interested in improving the officiating as much as anyone but pointing to this weak-azz study as "proof" is ridiculous.

They are using "significant" differently than you are. They are talking about statistical significance, which has nothing to do with how big something is.

I'm well aware of what a significant difference means wrt statistics. Perhaps it's the title of the article stating that NCAA refs are "riddled with bias." I'm not seeing it. The study findings don't support such a conclusion. They could only determine a minuscule yardage difference in 2 of the 5 power conferences. That's nothing more than background "noise" (variability) and hardly proof of "riddled with bias." The authors readily admit they didn't find the type of bias of their hypothethis (i.e. favoritism toward conference sacred cows -- long held beliefs of conspiracy advocates.)