Preseason Rankings and Strength of Schedule

[StatTiger 3,188]

Last season the Playoff committee placed a premium on conference winners and will likely do the same in 2015. Odds are the 4 playoff teams will likely be Power-5 conference winners. If this is the case, consider the following ...

Here is the AP Preseason Top-10 along with strength of schedule:

01) Ohio State (42)

02) TCU (93)

03) Alabama (4)

04) Baylor (88)

05) Michigan State (9)

06) Auburn (8)

07) Oregon (58)

08) Southern Cal (21)

09) Georgia (10)

10) Florida State (40)

History has shown that the eventual MNC has an average preseason ranking of No. 7 since 1968, so having a higher ranking early on is beneficial. History has also shown that only 42% of the preseason top-5 teams remain in the top-5 by the end of the season. On the other hand, 67% remained in the top-10 since 1968.

Based on this year's preseason rankings and SOS, there is a higher probability that OSU, TCU or Baylor remains in the top-4 by the end of the regular season. TCU and Baylor will face off late in the year, which would likely eliminate at least 1 but even that isn't a given. Of course this is the AP poll and not the poll that actually matters. The committee did frown upon Baylor's strength of schedule last year and will likely do the same in 2015. Of course it doesn't change the fact that Baylor has a higher probability of going undefeated than the others in the preseason AP top-5.

The Power -5 and Preseason Top-10:

Big 10: OSU and Michigan State

SEC: Alabama, Auburn and UGA

Big 12: TCU and Baylor

PAC-12: Oregon and Southern Cal

ACC: Florida State

Odds are, 3 out of the 4 playoff participants will come from the above ten teams listed above. You do have LSU, Clemson and UCLA in the top-14, who could jockey into position. Oregon is dangerous with a No. 58 SOS and No. 11 Notre Dame could easily slide up with a No. 61 SOS. If you are a team parked behind TCU, Baylor, Alabama, Auburn and Michigan State, you have comfort knowing they will eventually eliminate one another because they are scheduled to play one another.

In terms of SOS, UCLA is No. 82 with a No. 13 preseason ranking. Oklahoma is No. 88 in SOS but are No. 19 in the preseason poll. It is not about the best 4 teams making the playoffs but perhaps the teams with the least resistance of remaining undefeated until the playoffs begin.

[augolf1716 21,170]

My goodness

[GTNupe11 2,034]

Ohio State's SOS is pathetic. Though they could very well lose to Michigan State or Michigan late.

[WarTim 3,456]

Thanks as always Stat !!

[AU64 10,122]

And folks are worried that Ala State might hurt our SOC and keep us out of the play-offs?

Seems the odds are greater that the teams with SOS under 15 will have the most difficult time making the play-offs...partly because some of them will eliminate others in that exclusive listing whereas several pretty good teams seem to have an easy path to a 12- 0 season.

[StatTiger 3,188]

And folks are worried that Ala State might hurt our SOC and keep us out of the play-offs?

Seems the odds are greater that the teams with SOS under 15 will have the most difficult time making the play-offs...partly because some of them will eliminate others in that exclusive listing whereas several pretty good teams seem to have an easy path to a 12- 0 season.

Yep.... Baylor's SOS was a joke last year and look how close they were to the final-4. Had they gone undefeated they would have bumped out OSU.

[AURex 2,000]

This is why it is so important to win the SEC championship. Even with one loss, winning the SEC puts a team in position due to SoS. Whereas one loss in the Big12 pretty much eliminates a team, because they have such lame SoS.

[JBiGGiE 2,488]

And folks are worried that Ala State might hurt our SOC and keep us out of the play-offs?

Seems the odds are greater that the teams with SOS under 15 will have the most difficult time making the play-offs...partly because some of them will eliminate others in that exclusive listing whereas several pretty good teams seem to have an easy path to a 12- 0 season.

Not to sound like the SEC bandwagoner but it's fairly safe to say that Auburn's SoS will not be hurting too badly for the years to come. We play six games in what is currently the toughest division in CFB, plus Georgia every year, plus one Power-Five out of conference game. That leaves two cupcakes and whoever is in rotation from the East division which could go either way.

Now granted that the mixing and matching of home games has some merit, I submit that Auburn should have no problem appeasing the SoS sticklers.

[AU64 10,122]

And folks are worried that Ala State might hurt our SOC and keep us out of the play-offs?

Seems the odds are greater that the teams with SOS under 15 will have the most difficult time making the play-offs...partly because some of them will eliminate others in that exclusive listing whereas several pretty good teams seem to have an easy path to a 12- 0 season.

Not to sound like the SEC bandwagoner but it's fairly safe to say that Auburn's SoS will not be hurting too badly for the years to come. We play six games in what is currently the toughest division in CFB, plus Georgia every year, plus one Power-Five out of conference game. That leaves two cupcakes and whoever is in rotation from the East division which could go either way.

Now granted that the mixing and matching of home games has some merit, I submit that Auburn should have no problem appeasing the SoS sticklers.

Agree....which IMO kind of dismisses the argument we see here from time to time about why it is "necessary" for AU to play some other Power 5 power like FSU or OSU or whoever. I have contended that AU's schedule needs no help and JJ and Gus should (and will) negotiate schedules that tread the somewhat fine line between giving AU the best opportunity to advance to the play-offs....and giving the fans an enjoyable football experience each weekend. That's not an easy task and no way that they can satisfy everyone.

[McLoofus 35,182]

And folks are worried that Ala State might hurt our SOC and keep us out of the play-offs?

Seems the odds are greater that the teams with SOS under 15 will have the most difficult time making the play-offs...partly because some of them will eliminate others in that exclusive listing whereas several pretty good teams seem to have an easy path to a 12- 0 season.

Not to sound like the SEC bandwagoner but it's fairly safe to say that Auburn's SoS will not be hurting too badly for the years to come. We play six games in what is currently the toughest division in CFB, plus Georgia every year, plus one Power-Five out of conference game. That leaves two cupcakes and whoever is in rotation from the East division which could go either way.

Now granted that the mixing and matching of home games has some merit, I submit that Auburn should have no problem appeasing the SoS sticklers.

Agree....which IMO kind of dismisses the argument we see here from time to time about why it is "necessary" for AU to play some other Power 5 power like FSU or OSU or whoever. I have contended that AU's schedule needs no help and JJ and Gus should (and will) negotiate schedules that tread the somewhat fine line between giving AU the best opportunity to advance to the play-offs....and giving the fans an enjoyable football experience each weekend. That's not an easy task and no way that they can satisfy everyone.

Agreeing w/ just about everything you have to say this AM

[AUbritt 611]

Another option would be for us (Auburn, as well as the rest of the SEC) to schedule the heck out of some of those 'good' teams with lackluster SOS. I mean, wouldn't you love to knock Baylor or tOSU out of the running early?

I grant that this is a riskier option; but it'd also be more fun.

[FoundationEagle 637]

Another option would be for us (Auburn, as well as the rest of the SEC) to schedule the heck out of some of those 'good' teams with lackluster SOS. I mean, wouldn't you love to knock Baylor or tOSU out of the running early?

I grant that this is a riskier option; but it'd also be more fun.

You're assuming they would agree to it...which they probably won't. I'm sure they've been asked by better teams to play and yet we see who they play. As the saying goes, you can put lipstick on a pig....

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,673]

93

Woof

[AUbritt 611]

Another option would be for us (Auburn, as well as the rest of the SEC) to schedule the heck out of some of those 'good' teams with lackluster SOS. I mean, wouldn't you love to knock Baylor or tOSU out of the running early?

I grant that this is a riskier option; but it'd also be more fun.

You're assuming they would agree to it...which they probably won't. I'm sure they've been asked by better teams to play and yet we see who they play. As the saying goes, you can put lipstick on a pig....

That's when we pull out the big guns and call them chicken. That always works.

[AU64 10,122]

And folks are worried that Ala State might hurt our SOC and keep us out of the play-offs?

Seems the odds are greater that the teams with SOS under 15 will have the most difficult time making the play-offs...partly because some of them will eliminate others in that exclusive listing whereas several pretty good teams seem to have an easy path to a 12- 0 season.

Not to sound like the SEC bandwagoner but it's fairly safe to say that Auburn's SoS will not be hurting too badly for the years to come. We play six games in what is currently the toughest division in CFB, plus Georgia every year, plus one Power-Five out of conference game. That leaves two cupcakes and whoever is in rotation from the East division which could go either way.

Now granted that the mixing and matching of home games has some merit, I submit that Auburn should have no problem appeasing the SoS sticklers.

Agree....which IMO kind of dismisses the argument we see here from time to time about why it is "necessary" for AU to play some other Power 5 power like FSU or OSU or whoever. I have contended that AU's schedule needs no help and JJ and Gus should (and will) negotiate schedules that tread the somewhat fine line between giving AU the best opportunity to advance to the play-offs....and giving the fans an enjoyable football experience each weekend. That's not an easy task and no way that they can satisfy everyone.

Agreeing w/ just about everything you have to say this AM

Everyone knows this love affair will not last.....

[McLoofus 35,182]

And folks are worried that Ala State might hurt our SOC and keep us out of the play-offs?

Seems the odds are greater that the teams with SOS under 15 will have the most difficult time making the play-offs...partly because some of them will eliminate others in that exclusive listing whereas several pretty good teams seem to have an easy path to a 12- 0 season.

Not to sound like the SEC bandwagoner but it's fairly safe to say that Auburn's SoS will not be hurting too badly for the years to come. We play six games in what is currently the toughest division in CFB, plus Georgia every year, plus one Power-Five out of conference game. That leaves two cupcakes and whoever is in rotation from the East division which could go either way.

Now granted that the mixing and matching of home games has some merit, I submit that Auburn should have no problem appeasing the SoS sticklers.

Agree....which IMO kind of dismisses the argument we see here from time to time about why it is "necessary" for AU to play some other Power 5 power like FSU or OSU or whoever. I have contended that AU's schedule needs no help and JJ and Gus should (and will) negotiate schedules that tread the somewhat fine line between giving AU the best opportunity to advance to the play-offs....and giving the fans an enjoyable football experience each weekend. That's not an easy task and no way that they can satisfy everyone.

Agreeing w/ just about everything you have to say this AM

Everyone knows this love affair will not last.....

Hah!

[PythagoreanTiger 9]

Do you think a two loss SEC champion (with losses coming from other SEC teams who are highly ranked) makes it into the playoff if the other four conference champions have at most one loss?

Put differently, does the playoff committee actually value strength of schedule or overall record more?

[McLoofus 35,182]

Do you think a two loss SEC champion (with losses coming from other SEC teams who are highly ranked) makes it into the playoff if the other four conference champions have at most one loss?

Put differently, does the playoff committee actually value strength of schedule or overall record more?

If, say, OSU, TCU, Clemson and USC all end the regular season and win their conferences with 1 loss or less, I don't see a 2-loss SEC team getting in.

If it were, say, Michigan State, Kansas State, Georgia Tech and Arizona State? Maybe.

[McFU 205]

Do you think a two loss SEC champion (with losses coming from other SEC teams who are highly ranked) makes it into the playoff if the other four conference champions have at most one loss?

Put differently, does the playoff committee actually value strength of schedule or overall record more?

I do think they take SOS into account as part of the criteria.

A 1 loss SEC champion would make it in but for 2 losses I think it would depend on how high the SEC school with 2 losses is ranked at the time of winning the SEC championship. It would be hard to leap frog the champion from the Pac-12 and most 1 loss teams (other conference champions included), but if a team like Baylor has a loss then I could see them getting looked over again because they can't really afford any losses with their weaker SOS and they would have to be the conference champion. This would be especially true if the SEC with 2 losses is on the bubble of the playoffs sitting at number 5.

Honestly the only team I see going undefeated is Ohio State however I do think that they can be beat in the playoffs which is why I like the playoffs. If a teams coasts in there due to an easy schedule then they will have to play at least one tough game to make it to the national championship game. This really feels like a combination of 2013 and 2014. Ohio State will roll like Fla St did last year and hopefully Auburn will be able to go undefeated (or have only 1 loss like 2013) to make the playoffs.

**edited for typos**

[PythagoreanTiger 9]

Do you think a two loss SEC champion (with losses coming from other SEC teams who are highly ranked) makes it into the playoff if the other four conference champions have at most one loss?

Put differently, does the playoff committee actually value strength of schedule or overall record more?

I do think they take SOS into account as part of the criteria.

A 1 loss SEC champion would make it in but for 2 losses I think it would depend on how high the SEC school with 2 losses is ranked at the time of winning the SEC championship. It would be hard to leap frog the champion from the Pac-12 and most 1 loss teams (other conference champions included), but if a team like Baylor has a loss then I could see them getting looked over again because they can't really afford any losses with their weaker SOS and they would have to be the conference champion. This would be especially true if the SEC with 2 losses is on the bubble of the playoffs sitting at number 5.

Honestly the only team I see going undefeated is Ohio State however I do think that they can be beat in the playoffs which is why I like the playoffs. If a teams coasts in there due to an easy schedule then they will have to play at least one tough game to make it to the national championship game. This really feels like a combination of 2013 and 2014. Ohio State will roll like Fla St did last year and hopefully Auburn will be able to go undefeated (or have only 1 loss like 2013) to make the playoffs.

**edited for typos**

A one-loss team would get in for sure. With how much parity it seems like the SEC might have this year, it seems very possible that the champion could have two losses. I think how the SEC (especially the West) performs in the marquee Power 5 match ups will go a long way in making the decision in the event that happens.

[AU64 10,122]

Do you think a two loss SEC champion (with losses coming from other SEC teams who are highly ranked) makes it into the playoff if the other four conference champions have at most one loss?

Put differently, does the playoff committee actually value strength of schedule or overall record more?

I do think they take SOS into account as part of the criteria.

A 1 loss SEC champion would make it in but for 2 losses I think it would depend on how high the SEC school with 2 losses is ranked at the time of winning the SEC championship. It would be hard to leap frog the champion from the Pac-12 and most 1 loss teams (other conference champions included), but if a team like Baylor has a loss then I could see them getting looked over again because they can't really afford any losses with their weaker SOS and they would have to be the conference champion. This would be especially true if the SEC with 2 losses is on the bubble of the playoffs sitting at number 5.

Honestly the only team I see going undefeated is Ohio State however I do think that they can be beat in the playoffs which is why I like the playoffs. If a teams coasts in there due to an easy schedule then they will have to play at least one tough game to make it to the national championship game. This really feels like a combination of 2013 and 2014. Ohio State will roll like Fla St did last year and hopefully Auburn will be able to go undefeated (or have only 1 loss like 2013) to make the playoffs.

**edited for typos**

A one-loss team would get in for sure. With how much parity it seems like the SEC might have this year, it seems very possible that the champion could have two losses. I think how the SEC (especially the West) performs in the marquee Power 5 match ups will go a long way in making the decision in the event that happens.

Guess I'm wondering how a two loss SEC team would get to the Championship game 'cause I figure that an SEC team will have to win the conference tournament to move forward. And...a loss outside the conference would count about 3X when the season is analyzed since that loss would probably come against a much lower rated team.

SO....the SEC championship opponents will probably have no more than one loss with some tie breaker calculation involved. And, the winner will probably move on and the loser is looking at the Capital One Bowl or something.

No two-loss SEC team advancing to the playoffs. JMO

[AUbritt 611]

Do you think a two loss SEC champion (with losses coming from other SEC teams who are highly ranked) makes it into the playoff if the other four conference champions have at most one loss?

Put differently, does the playoff committee actually value strength of schedule or overall record more?

I do think they take SOS into account as part of the criteria.

A 1 loss SEC champion would make it in but for 2 losses I think it would depend on how high the SEC school with 2 losses is ranked at the time of winning the SEC championship. It would be hard to leap frog the champion from the Pac-12 and most 1 loss teams (other conference champions included), but if a team like Baylor has a loss then I could see them getting looked over again because they can't really afford any losses with their weaker SOS and they would have to be the conference champion. This would be especially true if the SEC with 2 losses is on the bubble of the playoffs sitting at number 5.

Honestly the only team I see going undefeated is Ohio State however I do think that they can be beat in the playoffs which is why I like the playoffs. If a teams coasts in there due to an easy schedule then they will have to play at least one tough game to make it to the national championship game. This really feels like a combination of 2013 and 2014. Ohio State will roll like Fla St did last year and hopefully Auburn will be able to go undefeated (or have only 1 loss like 2013) to make the playoffs.

**edited for typos**

A one-loss team would get in for sure. With how much parity it seems like the SEC might have this year, it seems very possible that the champion could have two losses. I think how the SEC (especially the West) performs in the marquee Power 5 match ups will go a long way in making the decision in the event that happens.

Guess I'm wondering how a two loss SEC team would get to the Championship game 'cause I figure that an SEC team will have to win the conference tournament to move forward. And...a loss outside the conference would count about 3X when the season is analyzed since that loss would probably come against a much lower rated team.

SO....the SEC championship opponents will probably have no more than one loss with some tie breaker calculation involved. And, the winner will probably move on and the loser is looking at the Capital One Bowl or something.

No two-loss SEC team advancing to the playoffs. JMO

I could imagine something like UGA losing a close one to Bama, losing to us, then beating Bama convincingly in the SEC Championship game. That would be two quality losses, with one avenged. I think it could happen.

[PythagoreanTiger 9]

Do you think a two loss SEC champion (with losses coming from other SEC teams who are highly ranked) makes it into the playoff if the other four conference champions have at most one loss?

Put differently, does the playoff committee actually value strength of schedule or overall record more?

I do think they take SOS into account as part of the criteria.

A 1 loss SEC champion would make it in but for 2 losses I think it would depend on how high the SEC school with 2 losses is ranked at the time of winning the SEC championship. It would be hard to leap frog the champion from the Pac-12 and most 1 loss teams (other conference champions included), but if a team like Baylor has a loss then I could see them getting looked over again because they can't really afford any losses with their weaker SOS and they would have to be the conference champion. This would be especially true if the SEC with 2 losses is on the bubble of the playoffs sitting at number 5.

Honestly the only team I see going undefeated is Ohio State however I do think that they can be beat in the playoffs which is why I like the playoffs. If a teams coasts in there due to an easy schedule then they will have to play at least one tough game to make it to the national championship game. This really feels like a combination of 2013 and 2014. Ohio State will roll like Fla St did last year and hopefully Auburn will be able to go undefeated (or have only 1 loss like 2013) to make the playoffs.

**edited for typos**

A one-loss team would get in for sure. With how much parity it seems like the SEC might have this year, it seems very possible that the champion could have two losses. I think how the SEC (especially the West) performs in the marquee Power 5 match ups will go a long way in making the decision in the event that happens.

Guess I'm wondering how a two loss SEC team would get to the Championship game 'cause I figure that an SEC team will have to win the conference tournament to move forward. And...a loss outside the conference would count about 3X when the season is analyzed since that loss would probably come against a much lower rated team.

SO....the SEC championship opponents will probably have no more than one loss with some tie breaker calculation involved. And, the winner will probably move on and the loser is looking at the Capital One Bowl or something.

No two-loss SEC team advancing to the playoffs. JMO

It is very much possible to have two conference losses and still win the SEC. LSU had two SEC losses in 2007 (Kentucky and Arkansas) and won the west before going on to win the conference and national championship. For the teams who play a difficult cross divisional opponent this year, this is not a far-fetched scenario.

Hopefully it doesn't come to this, but if it does I am be curious to see how much SOS and "quality" of losses actually come into play. It's hard to know with only one year as a sample size. My prediction is the SEC would unfortunately find itself on the outside looking in.

[WarEagle84 0]

A one-loss team would get in for sure. With how much parity it seems like the SEC might have this year, it seems very possible that the champion could have two losses. I think how the SEC (especially the West) performs in the marquee Power 5 match ups will go a long way in making the decision in the event that happens.

^^This. As much as you may hate it, Bama beating Wisconsin and aTm beating ASU Week 1 will be as important to the eventual SEC champion as AU beating Louisville.

[AU64 10,122]

Do you think a two loss SEC champion (with losses coming from other SEC teams who are highly ranked) makes it into the playoff if the other four conference champions have at most one loss?

Put differently, does the playoff committee actually value strength of schedule or overall record more?

I do think they take SOS into account as part of the criteria.

A 1 loss SEC champion would make it in but for 2 losses I think it would depend on how high the SEC school with 2 losses is ranked at the time of winning the SEC championship. It would be hard to leap frog the champion from the Pac-12 and most 1 loss teams (other conference champions included), but if a team like Baylor has a loss then I could see them getting looked over again because they can't really afford any losses with their weaker SOS and they would have to be the conference champion. This would be especially true if the SEC with 2 losses is on the bubble of the playoffs sitting at number 5.

Honestly the only team I see going undefeated is Ohio State however I do think that they can be beat in the playoffs which is why I like the playoffs. If a teams coasts in there due to an easy schedule then they will have to play at least one tough game to make it to the national championship game. This really feels like a combination of 2013 and 2014. Ohio State will roll like Fla St did last year and hopefully Auburn will be able to go undefeated (or have only 1 loss like 2013) to make the playoffs.

**edited for typos**

A one-loss team would get in for sure. With how much parity it seems like the SEC might have this year, it seems very possible that the champion could have two losses. I think how the SEC (especially the West) performs in the marquee Power 5 match ups will go a long way in making the decision in the event that happens.

Guess I'm wondering how a two loss SEC team would get to the Championship game 'cause I figure that an SEC team will have to win the conference tournament to move forward. And...a loss outside the conference would count about 3X when the season is analyzed since that loss would probably come against a much lower rated team.

SO....the SEC championship opponents will probably have no more than one loss with some tie breaker calculation involved. And, the winner will probably move on and the loser is looking at the Capital One Bowl or something.

No two-loss SEC team advancing to the playoffs. JMO

It is very much possible to have two conference losses and still win the SEC. LSU had two SEC losses in 2007 (Kentucky and Arkansas) and won the west before going on to win the conference and national championship. For the teams who play a difficult cross divisional opponent this year, this is not a far-fetched scenario.

Hopefully it doesn't come to this, but if it does I am be curious to see how much SOS and "quality" of losses actually come into play. It's hard to know with only one year as a sample size. My prediction is the SEC would unfortunately find itself on the outside looking in.

That was a very unusual situation that IMO is not likely to happen again any time soon. Everybody who was anybody in the top 20 had at least 2 losses and teams with 3 losses were in the top 10.

In the years since, there has been less balance in the sport and only twice has a 2 loss team finished as high as #5 in the final poll. Just saying, that if an SEC team with 2 losses wins the championship, those losses better be to some very highly rated teams for the SEC champ to get any consideration....unlikely in my view. But we can just wait and see.