Early line has AU 9pt favorite

[boisnumber1 2,819]

Interesting. Hope we put the hammer down on bert.

Odds

[Charhair 345]

A week of no AU football has definitely got me pumped for this one. Hoping we're up at least 35-0 at halftime! 

[ausoldiergrad 57]

Damn...that is surprising to me.  Arkansas is better than MSU, and we only got one and a half by kickoff.  I expect that to go down, and then for us to cover regardless.

 

[boisnumber1 2,819]

15 minutes ago, ausoldiergrad said:

Damn...that is surprising to me.  Arkansas is better than MSU, and we only got one and a half by kickoff.  I expect that to go down, and then for us to cover regardless.

 

Kinda wonder how much is it us being healthy vs them being very beat up. They lost a DB for the first half due to targeting and had  LB go down that was already replacing another injured LB.

[doc4aday 1,887]

We all should agree to eat pork at least 2 times this week!

[Richard78 73]

Combination of injuries and a bad D IMO. Not their O, right now, Allen leads the SEC in passing yards and Williams in rushing yards. Course, our D is playing great right now.

http://secsports.go.com/statistics/football

But their D is 91st nationally giving up 399 ypg and almost 29 ppg.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

 

 

[Richard78 73]

Line has already dropped to 7 1/2-8, not unexpected IMO.

[AURex 2,000]

 

9 point favorite? Not right now. Some are saying Auburn is a 7.5 favorite. But whatever, this is no gimme game. I thought Ole Miss would be the next one to really worry about, but the Pigs looked pretty good against Ole Miss.

Personally, I don't care about the spread, because I never bet. But given our history with Arkansas, I think it could be closer than 9 points. That's why I think Auburn will come out charged!

 

[AU64 10,122]

I figured it would be 7 by Monday....started at 9 to shake some money out of hawg fans and balance the take.    Seven sounds reasonable for an AU home game and seems to me that even now, both teams are somewhat of a mystery.    We've only showed a really sold offense in one game (MSU) and their defense has been all over the place too.

Other than the spread.....what is the thinking on the over/under......60 points?  how does that sound?  too low? 

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

Personally I don't think Arky is much better after their win with OM. I think OM was way over rated. Not unusual at the beginning of the year to see teams start slow. We did with our offense but are much better now. So did FSU and uat and that is why OM was able to stay close to them. I really don't see much problem considering how we are playing now and how they are now, that we should win the next 5 by more than 2 scores against each one, unless something major happens. By the way way mark this down, SW will be the difference maker they will help us beat uat. Our defense can handle Hurt just like they did Deshaun. I think SW's accuracy and our receivers will hit uat in the place they are not prepared for (Their DBs are there week point). If you look at the teams that have been destroyed by them, they try to come out early with the run which is uat's defense strong point. When it fails they revert to the long pass and uat's line doesn't allow the QB time for that. We can beat their defense with the short quick accurate passes(not the bubble screen). There punt returns and kickoff returns will not be a factor like it has because our kicking game is to good ( kickoffs through the end zone and hang time on punts allow not return ). Remember they have 11 TDs other than offense , that is 77 points or nearly a third of their total. We can't give up cheap fumbles or interceptions and allow them to score that way. We do that we can bet them and i think we will. Remember Nick has not beat a AU team that won more than 7 in a regular season. They were Number 1 and undefeated  in 2013 and 9 and 2 in 2010. I think this team may be as good as 2013 by then. Just my thoughts. WDE

[lutzcammed 469]

I don't see it.  7 , 8 or 9. I think they are all too high.

[VipersStrike1 230]

3 hours ago, AU64 said:

what is the thinking on the over/under......60 points?  how does that sound?  too low? 

I see a 27-24 type game. Offenses are averaging 21 PPG (AU) and 32 PPG (ARK) against P5 opponents, so somewhere between 50-60 points.

 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,673]

I just hope our DBs are 100%. Rawleigh is gonna get worn down and his backup is a receiver I'm pretty sure. This is a game Austin will probably tjrow a minimum of 32 times. We're gonna need the LBs to be as athletic as ever because all Arky has that's truly an advantage in terms of receiving threat is Sprinkle. 

[AU64 10,122]

7 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I just hope our DBs are 100%. Rawleigh is gonna get worn down and his backup is a receiver I'm pretty sure. This is a game Austin will probably tjrow a minimum of 32 times. We're gonna need the LBs to be as athletic as ever because all Arky has that's truly an advantage in terms of receiving threat is Sprinkle. 

32 passes would be on the low side I think....he was 40 or more against bama and TAMU...maybe because they were not able to keep the running game going.   And looking at his stats....he is not a running threat...negative yardage for the year....which might offer the opportunity for some aggressive pass rush.

 

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

1 hour ago, AU64 said:

32 passes would be on the low side I think....he was 40 or more against bama and TAMU...maybe because they were not able to keep the running game going.   And looking at his stats....he is not a running threat...negative yardage for the year....which might offer the opportunity for some aggressive pass rush.

 

I think you are right. I think the piggies ground game is not good. As you said Allen is no runner. I think this plays well for our front seven. I am putting the over under on sacks for Allen at 4 and I am taking the over. WDE

[VipersStrike1 230]

8 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

Rawleigh is gonna get worn down and his backup is a receiver I'm pretty sure.

Negative. 5-star RB Whaley is his revolving backup, who got 11 carries v Ole Miss and averaged 5.9 YPC (6.2 YPC for the season).

8 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

all Arky has that's truly an advantage in terms of receiving threat is Sprinkle. 

As for a TE? Yes. As for overall receiving threats? Cornelius, Morgan and Hatcher all have 21+ catches on the season.

[VipersStrike1 230]

1 hour ago, AU64 said:

32 passes would be on the low side I think....he was 40 or more against bama and TAMU...maybe because they were not able to keep the running game going.   And looking at his stats....he is not a running threat...negative yardage for the year....which might offer the opportunity for some aggressive pass rush.

The reason Allen is completing 63% of his passes and 2+ TDs in every game despite giving up an average of 5 sacks and 9.5 QBH in their last two games is his poise under fire, pocket presence and accuracy.

He has some of Joe Montana's traits. He's not going to beat you with his feet. But he's good at avoiding pass rushers to buy time to get his pass off to find an open receiver. And absolutely nothing rattles him, incompletion, sack, turnover or otherwise. He shakes it off and keeps coming.

It's what has me concerned about this guy.

[TigerfanKM 37]

I am MUCH more concerned about this game after watching them beat Ole Miss. Not so much their D, but their O is much improved, especially passing. Will be a great measuring stick to determine exactly where we are as a team. I hope you all are right!

[aucanucktiger 1,794]

I have us by 1 point.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

17 hours ago, Richard78 said:

Combination of injuries and a bad D IMO. Not their O, right now, Allen leads the SEC in passing yards and Williams in rushing yards. Course, our D is playing great right now.

http://secsports.go.com/statistics/football

But their D is 91st nationally giving up 399 ypg and almost 29 ppg.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

Rawleigh Williams is a bit of a smokescreen... Yes, he leads the SEC in rushing, but the majority of his yards are against cupcakes and Ole Miss.  He got 49 against bama and 79 against A&M.  Allen makes up for his lack of numbers in those games, but ends up on his back a lot. In both cases, neither score much when facing a good D.  Our D is better than A&Ms... just sayin'.

[gr82b4au 5,568]

It just depends on us. If we turn the ball over and the OL once again can't block, we will struggle. If we hold on to the ball I think we will win by 10+. 

[doc4aday 1,887]

I think that their game against TAMU is pretty much what you are going to see from the pigs.  Our front 7 at this point is better than TAMU. Lawson and company are going to eat up Allen and their running game. I do not see the pigs scoring more than 21-24 points at best. Our offense will put up at least 35-42 points.  Not too many will see things as I do, but I am fairly confident that we will win the game, and will do so convincingly. 

I see us winning 38-21 against the pigs. It may not even be this close. As for OM, it will yield about the same results. Kelly will find his butt on the ground early and often the week after next. I do think we could very well be sitting at 9-2 when the iron bowl rolls around. I am beginning to see this team as a special team that can beat anyone. Not pumping sunshine, but seeing things the way they could wind up.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,673]

8 hours ago, VipersStrike1 said:

Negative. 5-star RB Whaley is his revolving backup, who got 11 carries v Ole Miss and averaged 5.9 YPC (6.2 YPC for the season).

As for a TE? Yes. As for overall receiving threats? Cornelius, Morgan and Hatcher all have 21+ catches on the season.

Running against OM's defense is like running against tattered bread.

[augolf1716 21,170]

When you have the ball for over 40 minutes in a game the Ole Miss Def is going to be DOA

[VipersStrike1 230]

23 hours ago, VipersStrike1 said:

I see a 27-24 type game. Offenses are averaging 21 PPG (AU) and 32 PPG (ARK) against P5 opponents, so somewhere between 50-60 points.

Over/Under is 55 points.