Looking too far ahead (playoffs)

[AUBourne 425]

So many people are saying that if AU wins the SEC Championship they are in. But when I see the rankings all I see is chaos. I still think there is a possibility the LSU game costs AU a playoff spot even if AU wins the SEC. Consider this:

Contenders
Oklahoma, Miami, Clemson, Wisconsin, Alabama, thUGA, Auburn, Ohio State (hear me out)

Possible scenarios:

OSU beats Wisconsin in Big10 Championship (probable) and Wisconsin is a one loss team with no quality wins. OSU is a two loss team and Big10 Champs.

If Oklahoma beats TCU in the rematch then Oklahoma unanimously claims one spot. If TCU wins I think that helps our chances because I think we get in before them.

At least one spot is definitely going to the ACC , however the could get two teams in playoffs:

If Miami beats Clemson in ACC Championship in a close game. Miami takes one playoff spot. In this scenario nobody outside AU family would complain if the committee selected the defending champs that already beat Auburn in head to head.

Or Clemson squeaks out a win vs Miami and Miami is a one loss team. The ACC could possibly get two teams in the playoffs. Especially if OSU wins the Big10. But if Miami played Clemson closer than AU and Miami only has that one loss?  Well 1983 comes to mind.

An OSU win over Wisconsin opens the door for a one loss Alabama. Since I think OSU will beat Wisconsin I think Alabama is going to the playoffs even if they lose to AU. I don't think we would have to worry about our spot going to OSU but I could be wrong.  Last year Penn State beat OSU head to head and won the Big 10. Yet OSU went to the playoffs anyway. If the committee thinks name brand Bama or 2 loss OSU  is better for ratings it could happen to us too.

Sure I know I am looking way to far ahead but its kind of fun to think about this stuff. And I am glad we can still be thinking about it.

 

.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,662]

I said this before UGA, I know the 2004 season made a lot of us paranoid about this subject, but this committee has shown their hand about the importance of resume several times over, at least in the top end. Miami will jump to #2 and should be very close with Bama (who should be 3 in my mind but whatever). OU should be a distant #3 over Clemson. Auburn will have the strongest resume in comparison to at least 3 of those teams and OU will be very close (that ISU loss holds them back a good bit). Wisconsin clamped a respectable Iowa team, but even if they win out, they’ve only beaten a then 3 loss Iowa and Ohio State team that got stomped out twice. It’ll be ensured we get in if they lose, but if we win out we’ll jump them. Bama has to lose, Clemson or Miami has to lose. Miami loses, they have a meh win over an almost unranked VT and a respectable win over a ND team that seems like they’ll be flirting with the teens ranking wise. That’s it. That’s 2 available spots and we’re going to be one of the next 2 teams. There’s literally nothing to worry about 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,662]

The final 4 I’m most interested in, and the one that seems the easiest to predict, is 

 

Miami 

Oklahoma

Auburn

Alabama

 

I think unless we beat Alabama handily enough (which is possible), they drop to 5 during conf champ week and OSU’s Wisc upset does nothing but uplift UA back to the top 4. OSU basically gets screwed ala PSU last year 

[aucanucktiger 1,791]

Yeah but wouldn't it be sweet if we throttled Bama so bad then the pups again that we made the playoffs with 2 losses and turds didn't with 1? Like u said, way too early, La - Monroe first. 

[AUBourne 425]

5 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

The final 4 I’m most interested in, and the one that seems the easiest to predict, is 

 

Miami 

Oklahoma

Auburn

Alabama

 

I think unless we beat Alabama handily enough (which is possible), they drop to 5 during conf champ week and OSU’s Wisc upset does nothing but uplift UA back to the top 4. OSU basically gets screwed ala PSU last year 

I hope you are right but I don't trust the politics.I think last year proved the committee cares more about money than about which teams deserves to be in playoffs. PSU won the Big10, won the Big10 Championship game and beat OSU head to head. Yet OSU was given a playoff spot instead.    If the committee can make an argument for the name brand program over the upstart then the blue blood gets in.

The defending champion Clemson beat AU head to head. I think we have a real issue if Miami wins the ACC.  I think Alabama gets a higher seed than AU unless we dominate them. A close win at Jordan-Hare is not enough based on the PSU vs OSU results.

But if Clemson wins I think a case will still be made for both Miami and OSU over Auburn.

 

 

 

[tigerrules 517]

The 2004 season drove the NCAA to a playoff system. This year could drive them to an expansion.  They are just looking for a reason to make more money. 

[AU64 10,122]

Interesting discussion but guess my primary question is:   if the rankings mean something and AU beats the #1 teams twice in a matter of 3 weeks what do the rankings mean if AU does not move up to the top 2 or 3?  

And if you play no top ten teams all season and beat a couple teams ranked in the second ten ....and you jump to the top 5 based on your record.  If so, I'm looking to see Central Florida in that top 5 too.  .

Actually I'm thinking it will all play out over the next few weeks and an acknowledged " best four" will emerge ...and maybe team #5 will have a legit gripe but most of this will take care of itself...JMO

[keesler 5,924]

8 Team playoff is needed!

[AU64 10,122]

10 minutes ago, keesler said:

8  Team playoff is needed!

I  guess if you want more games that's fine but the conference championships in early December already function as the first round of the playoffs in most cases.      ND is the only contender not in a conference playoff and that situation was resolved in Miami. 

JMO but it you took 8 teams after the conference championships you will have some re-matches in round one and or round  2 of an 8 team system.  I'm thinking there would be two SEC teams and probably two ACC teams out of the 8 this year but we can re-visit this subject in about 4 weeks and see how it would look.   Worth discussing further. 

[3rdgeneration 6,469]

My scenario is that Clemson beats Miami like we beat Georgia and proves that they are a paper tiger. We beat Bama in a close game, then we beat Georgia big in the SECC game. That puts the top 4 as 1. Clemson, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Bama, 4. Auburn. 1. plays 4 and we play Clemson for a 2nd time and beat them and 2 plays 3 and Bama beats Oklahoma. Then we play Bama for the NC.

We would have played 3 teams twice this season. And of course, we win the NC.  Not going to happen, but it is a fun scenario.

This also depends on Wisconsin losing to Michigan and playing in the B1G championship in a very lackluster game.

[Strychnine 1,802]

45 minutes ago, AUBourne said:

I hope you are right but I don't trust the politics.I think last year proved the committee cares more about money than about which teams deserves to be in playoffs. PSU won the Big10, won the Big10 Championship game and beat OSU head to head. Yet OSU was given a playoff spot instead.    If the committee can make an argument for the name brand program over the upstart then the blue blood gets in.

The defending champion Clemson beat AU head to head. I think we have a real issue if Miami wins the ACC.  I think Alabama gets a higher seed than AU unless we dominate them. A close win at Jordan-Hare is not enough based on the PSU vs OSU results.

But if Clemson wins I think a case will still be made for both Miami and OSU over Auburn.

 

 

 

 

You are making a bigger deal out of Ohio State jumping Penn State that it actually was, and it had absolutely nothing to do with money.  Ohio State jumped Penn State because Ohio State had one loss instead of two AND they had beaten three top 10 teams AND they had a big road win over Oklahoma, which was another team that ended up in the top 10.  It was not any one of those three elements, it was the combination of them.  Their one loss was to Penn State (which finished in the top 10), on the road, in a very close game.  Ultimately, the biggest strike against Penn State last year, and what I ultimately think made the difference to the committee, was their 49-10 loss to Michigan.

More importantly, you are spreading complete nonsense about Ohio State being a name brand program and Penn State as an upstart.  Penn State is one of the top 10 programs in the entire history of college football.  Penn State IS a blue blood.  They are right there with Ohio State.  If you are going to accuse the playoff committee of making decisions based on money and/or perceived program status, then try to do so with an accusation that has merit.

In this season, Ohio State has no argument over Auburn.  Ohio State got blown out by Iowa, and got blown out in the second half by Oklahoma, at home.  Alabama has a very flimsy argument, as an SEC Champion Auburn means that Alabama lost to the only good team they played.  Auburn would end the season with three consecutive wins over top 10 teams, with at least one of them being a blowout.  The PAC-12 has already basically eliminated itself, and Ohio State winning the B1G Championship might eliminate them too.  Clemson winning the ACC leaves Miami with a legitimate gripe, but I would not be surprised to see Miami beat them.  Their defense is a turnover creation machine.

[msza 228]

Obviously you recognize the folly of looking this far ahead, but the chances of us making the playoffs as SEC champs are about 90%, whereas the chances of us winning the SEC are probably about 30%.

You're worrying about a leaky hull when there's a tsunami on the horizon.

 

 

[AU64 10,122]

Quote

We would have played 3 teams twice this season. And of course, we win the NC.  Not going to happen, but it is a fun scenario.

I'm thinking the bloom is off the rose on bama.....could have been beaten by MSU and their  offense was ordinary in LSU game and TAMU gave them a challenge.  

If AU can put them down in two weeks there is no way they stay in the top 4.  Folks are already wanting to move them down but "bama being bama" someone like AU needs to  provide the proper justification so it can happen.    If bama does not get in the SEC championship game, their last game of the season will be the Sugar Bowl.JMO

[AUBourne 425]

14 minutes ago, Strychnine said:

 

You are making a bigger deal out of Ohio State jumping Penn State that it actually was, and it had absolutely nothing to do with money.  Ohio State jumped Penn State because Ohio State had one loss instead of two AND they had beaten three top 10 teams AND they had a big road win over Oklahoma, which was another team that ended up in the top 10.  It was not any one of those three elements, it was the combination of them.  Their one loss was to Penn State (which finished in the top 10), on the road, in a very close game.  Ultimately, the biggest strike against Penn State last year, and what I ultimately think made the difference to the committee, was their 49-10 loss to Michigan.

More importantly, you are spreading complete nonsense about Ohio State being a name brand program and Penn State as an upstart.  Penn State is one of the top 10 programs in the entire history of college football.  Penn State IS a blue blood.  They are right there with Ohio State.  If you are going to accuse the playoff committee of making decisions based on money and/or perceived program status, then try to do so with an accusation that has merit.

In this season, Ohio State has no argument over Auburn.  Ohio State got blown out by Iowa, and got blown out in the second half by Oklahoma, at home.  Alabama has a very flimsy argument, as an SEC Champion Auburn means that Alabama lost to the only good team they played.  Auburn would end the season with three consecutive wins over top 10 teams, with at least one of them being a blowout.  The PAC-12 has already basically eliminated itself, and Ohio State winning the B1G Championship might eliminate them too.  Clemson winning the ACC leaves Miami with a legitimate gripe, but I would not be surprised to see Miami beat them.  Their defense is a turnover creation machine.

The NCAA has always come up with a reason to fit the narrative they desire.   TCU was left out because they had not played in a title game a few years ago.  Last year PSU did, beat OSU and won their conference and winning a title game no longer mattered. Penn State has been left behind in the popularity contest as much as AU over the years.  You can pretend their brand is favored as much as OSU if you want but that is not reality.

[AUBourne 425]

Playoff article

 

[ScottsboroAuburnFan 462]

Miami, AU,Bama,OK would be the top 4 imo. A close loss to AU should be higher than OK imo. Miami will beat Clemson imo. AU with 3 straight top 10 wins will be #2. OK does have a good schedule but the Loss is much worse than Bama loss... 

Miami vs OK 

AU vs Bama. 

They will not allow an SEC vs SEC. 

Y'all crazy to even think that. Lol

[AUBourne 425]

Making both AU and Bama fans travel to that dump in Pasadena to watch a rematch would be a crime.  Though after my last trip there for the FSU game I don't think I would go back no matter who AU played. The area was okay but the stadium was terrible. 

[wdefromtx 3,159]

We will be top 4 if we beat the turds.. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

40 minutes ago, AUBourne said:

Making both AU and Bama fans travel to that dump in Pasadena to watch a rematch would be a crime.  Though after my last trip there for the FSU game I don't think I would go back no matter who AU played. The area was okay but the stadium was terrible. 

The Rose Bowl is 100+ years old.  What did you expect?  It's like going to Wrigley Field.  Certainly not the nicest stadium in baseball, but you go for the history.

[Strychnine 1,802]

29 minutes ago, AUBourne said:

The NCAA has always come up with a reason to fit the narrative they desire.   TCU was left out because they had not played in a title game a few years ago.  Last year PSU did, beat OSU and won their conference and winning a title game no longer mattered. Penn State has been left behind in the popularity contest as much as AU over the years.  You can pretend their brand is favored as much as OSU if you want but that is not reality.

 

When you get called out for saying something blatantly ridiculous, do not double down with even more when you respond.  It does not paint a flattering picture for you.  When you say things like "The NCAA has always come up with..." in this context, it makes you look like you do not know what you are talking about.

The NCAA has absolutely nothing to do with the FBS postseason.  They have nothing to do with the College Football Playoff, the committee that selects the participants, the Bowl Championship Series that preceded it, or the bowl system that preceded the BCS.  The NCAA does not recognize a national champion for FBS.

TCU was left out because they did not play a conference championship game.  The other four representatives did, so they played an extra game against a quality opponent that TCU did not play.  They put their playoff ambitions on the line, and TCU had the week off.  Last year, Penn State got left out because they got drilled by Michigan and lost to Pittsburgh.  Ohio State lost once, to Penn State on the road, but they beat three top 10 teams AND blew out Oklahoma on the road.  Ohio State had a much better overall resume than Penn State did, AND they had one less loss.  Had Oklahoma beat Ohio State earlier in the season, they would have taken Ohio State's slot and B1G would have been left out.  After the conference championship games were done, they had these candidates to choose from for a fourth slot:  one loss Ohio State, two loss Oklahoma, and two loss Penn State.  Popularity had nothing to do with it.

Moreover, what is this popularity contest you are talking about?  Auburn is left behind when they do not have a good team.  So are Penn State, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, and anyone else.  Auburn has played in two BCS National Championship Games in this decade, and won one of them.  Auburn is currently being discussed as a two loss playoff team if they win out.  How in the world does that constitute being left behind in a popularity contest?  If you are trying to attribute popularity as something the playoff committee considers, then you have absolutely no evidence upon which to base that assertion.  Thus far, the playoff committee has gotten it right all three times.  They even showed you a lack of bias, just recently, when their first ranking this year defied the polls by ranking Georgia ahead of Alabama.

[ScottsboroAuburnFan 462]

Resume, Resume, and Resume. 

Win or lose, the Resume matters most. Our loss to Clemson, out weighs OSU loss to Iowa, OK loss to ISU. Bama losing to AU would also out weigh those. We should worry if Clemson beats Miami by 1 point in a game that Miami was the better team. Then we could be in trouble, unless we beat Bama clearly as the superior team. It's gonna get interesting, but I believe works out. Wisconsin will lose, Clemson will lose. OK may even lose, but doubt it. Wisconsin, Clemson, and OK win out. We still in imo but would that leave Bama at 5? We all know they are better than Wisconsin, I'd even go as far to say that Miami and Clemson are better. losses do not hurt u much by the committee if u play tough schedules, unless your dominated. (OSU)

 

[ScottsboroAuburnFan 462]

I didn't include Clemson loss, because the committee basically discounts it due to the starting QB getting hurt. 

[JDUBB4AU 5,116]

2 hours ago, keesler said:

8 Team playoff is needed!

This. I still believe in conference champions 

[Linayus 676]

2 hours ago, msza said:

Obviously you recognize the folly of looking this far ahead, but the chances of us making the playoffs as SEC champs are about 90%, whereas the chances of us winning the SEC are probably about 30%.

You're worrying about a leaky hull when there's a tsunami on the horizon.

I'd put us an even 50% right now. Especially with Bama's injuries in the middle defensively. If they can't figure out a solution there, we're going to have our way running the ball like we did against Georgia.

[AU64 10,122]

24 minutes ago, ScottsboroAuburnFan said:

I didn't include Clemson loss, because the committee basically discounts it due to the starting QB getting hurt. 

Anybody cutting us any slack because Pettway has been out almost all year?  or both losses being close and in two very difficult places to play....Maybe since we are the highest ranked 2 loss team.   .

The main thing is that losing a game near the end of the season is way more of a factor than in game 1 or2.   

Just keep winning....that's all it takes...... and the games in Clemson and Baton Rouge will just be vague memories.