Atlanta Federal Reserve Raises 2018 1st Quarter GDP Growth Projection to 5.4%

[Elephant Tipper 430]

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?d=1&s=fb

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release.

Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet.

Latest forecast: 5.4 percent — February 1, 2018

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 5.4 percent on February 1, up from 4.2 percent on January 29. The forecast of real consumer spending growth increased from 3.1 percent to 4.0 percent after this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, while the forecast of real private fixed-investment growth increased from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent after the ISM report and this morning's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for January—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.42 to 1.37 after the ISM report.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

^^^^^Thank you Pres Trump

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

Will be interesting to see what it is at the end of the year.  IIRC, Obama had a 1st quarter once that was 4.5% growth but year ended at 2.7%ish.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

8 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

Will be interesting to see what it is at the end of the year.  IIRC, Obama had a 1st quarter once that was 4.5% growth but year ended at 2.7%ish.

You can't do those throwbacks  Brad (LOL)

[G8orH8or 61]

Atlanta FED has a dismal track record. Take it with a grain of salt