What really caused the drop off?

[Randman5000 4,235]

8 hours ago, augolf1716 said:

Yep I have ucf fans and ex players I know coming up to me wanting to know wth Gus is doing

Lol. What do you say?

[AUwent 3,778]

I genuinely believe that he'll continue to go ~9-4 at UCF. The question is, will their fans be ok with that? From what I can tell, until they lost to Navy this year they were expecting 2017-like seasons in the future. They're clearly very excited about moving to the Big 12.

Edited June 29, 2023 by AUwent

[augolf1716 21,434]

10 hours ago, Randman5000 said:

Lol. What do you say?

I have printed copies of what bird has said about Gus to hand out to them.

[AUGoo 2,666]

32 minutes ago, augolf1716 said:

I have printed copies of what bird has said about Gus to hand out to them.

Why? You need to be handing them Mikey stuff to continue the gas lighting. I’m bumfuzzled as to why we are recruiting against him and ready for the recruits to figure it out, but not the UCF PTB. They get a real coach and that’s just one more big program to recruit against.

[DAG 34,034]

51 minutes ago, AUGoo said:

Why? You need to be handing them Mikey stuff to continue the gas lighting. I’m bumfuzzled as to why we are recruiting against him and ready for the recruits to figure it out, but not the UCF PTB. They get a real coach and that’s just one more big program to recruit against.

What? UCF whether they have a big coach or not , is not are competition. 

[aucom96 1,640]

2 hours ago, augolf1716 said:

I have printed copies of what bird has said about Gus to hand out to them.

"The Waffle House Diaries"

Excellent stuff. 

[JerryAU 1,694]

19 hours ago, CoffeeTiger said:

Harsin may have been a horrifically bad hire, but that aside finding a good long-term solution at the headcoach position is very hard. Go look at a list of all the P5 head coaches and how long they've been at their schools. Only a handful have been at their schools 10+ years and a lot haven't even been at their current school for 5 years. 

Only a couple schools are fortunate enough to actually have long term head coaches this day and age. 

Very true.

With coaching salaries + coordinator salaries + position coaches salaries + support staff + analysts + constant facility upgrades to 'keep up with the Joneses' in the arms race that is college sports.  Program donors, boosters and fans in general have no patience with an operation that doesn't compete for championships in a very short time frame. 

There's just too much $$ poured into the program and a staff that returns middling (8-4) type seasons or makes the post season (March Madness/CWS, etc.) then fizzles out early in post season competition won't last anywhere as long as they used to.  

Coaching tenures are shorter than ever before. 

[auburnatl1 5,253]

42 minutes ago, JerryAU said:

Very true.

With coaching salaries + coordinator salaries + position coaches salaries + support staff + analysts + constant facility upgrades to 'keep up with the Joneses' in the arms race that is college sports.  Program donors, boosters and fans in general have no patience with an operation that doesn't compete for championships in a very short time frame. 

There's just too much $$ poured into the program and a staff that returns middling (8-4) type seasons or makes the post season (March Madness/CWS, etc.) then fizzles out early in post season competition won't last anywhere as long as they used to.  

Coaching tenures are shorter than ever before. 

One of the big hc debates is often whether to get a “system” guy or “ceo”type. System hc’s,  often called “geniuses”, tend to be married to their … invention, while CEO’s delegate it (less sexy). The problem is that systems usually have a shelf life - especially offensive ones.

Imo the reason for shorter hc tenures. 1) sure, fan bases have become less patient and often prematurely go into blood-lust 2) but also everybody now hunts for hc “geniuses”, instead of the more pliable ceo types who instead hire the geniuses/ coordinators/ systems.

[JerryAU 1,694]

18 minutes ago, auburnatl1 said:

One of the big hc debates is often whether to get a “system” guy or “ceo”type. System hc’s,  often called “geniuses”, tend to be married to their … invention, while CEO’s delegate it (less sexy). The problem is that systems usually have a shelf life - especially offensive ones.

Imo the reason for shorter hc tenures. 1) sure, fan bases have become less patient and often prematurely go into blood-lust 2) but also everybody now hunts for hc “geniuses”, instead of the more pliable ceo types who instead hire the geniuses/ coordinators/ systems.

It takes a perfect mix to operate at an elite level and very few programs in the country are able to do it consistently.  Now add in the portal's wide open transfer rules + NIL millions to the mix.  It's a dang near impossible task. 

[ScotsAU 1,343]

We had a natty in 2010, an SEC championship in 2013, and an appearance in 2017. Folks, saying we’ve been sliding since Tubbs is not realistic.

Also, on Gus’s offense, he did innovate more than folks give him credit for. His offense in 2009-2011 looked relatively different from the 2013-2016 version which contained more misdirection than he’d previously ran. 2017-2019 showed more passing innovation, incorporating several air raid elements. I won’t evaluate anything from 2020. That year was such a mess with Covid. I feel like a lot of teams were very up and down that season. So he did innovate. But at the heart of it all, he wanted to have a run first team, which he was increasingly struggling to make happen after 2017 due to…

Kirby. The reality… Kirby was the difference.  Both our rivals in our two biggest recruiting spots now have elite recruiters. Our biggest recruiting states have always been George and Alabama. Gus and his staff were good enough as recruiters to stay relevant with Saban at Bama. Under Richt, we were able to steal a lot of players from Georgia and would occasionally beat out Bama for a top player or two. When Kirby started running Saban 2.0 at Georgia, we were no longer winning those recruiting battles in Georgia, especially on the offensive line prospects. No offensive line. No run blocking. No QB protection. Can’t run the ball, and can’t set up any play action… Hence inept offense. 
 

Still we weren’t that depleted. We had good defensive players, several talented skill position players, and a 5 star QB. What did Harsin do? Ran most of them off and didn’t recruit well enough to replace their talents. And he ran an offense that made Gus’s slower than ideal innovation look like a super progressive coach. 
 

So I’d say the slide started in 2016 with a slow dip in recruiting. But the open recruiting portal that we now have could have brought us back into contention if we’d made the right hire or maybe even if we’d kept Gus depending on how good he was getting portal players. But Harsin caused a slow dip to become a bottomless pit. He just destroyed what was an above average to good (but not great) roster and turned it into a bad one. 

Edited June 29, 2023 by ScotsAU

[ScotsAU 1,343]

22 hours ago, weagl1 said:

Auburn played hell when we didn’t listen to Pat Dye in 2012 and didn’t hire Kirby Smart when he was available.  Instead we ended up with Gus.  Looked like genius for one year (2013) but its been pretty much downhill from there.  People think Kirby might have left us for Georgia when Richt was fired but I doubt it.  Dye didn’t leave is when Dooley retired.  A coach spends several years building relationships and getting a program headed in the right direction they get reluctant to leave just when they start reaping the benefits.  Starting over in this league is tough and it seems like we have been in a constant state of starting over since Dye resigned over the Ramsey mess.  Tubby had a good run for a while for a few years but I think a lot of that was from Bammer being down while they were dealing with their own coaching fiascos prior to hiring Saban.  

Smart would’ve been a disaster at Auburn for some of the reasons Harsin was. Obviously recruiting would’ve been better. But culture fit matters. Georgia and Alabama fans don’t have to like their coach. They just have to have them win… at any cost. Smart would’ve spent 2 years fighting with boosters for control and not doing the Auburn Man PR stuff that an Auburn coach has to do. If Kirby was still able to have success in that situation, he would’ve darted to another open job. Also, he would’ve tried to implement a pro style scheme without the personnel to do it in his first year or two. That plus the infighting… I don’t think he would’ve even had much success at all here. 

Edited June 29, 2023 by ScotsAU

[auburnatl1 5,253]

18 minutes ago, ScotsAU said:

Smart would’ve been a disaster at Auburn for some of the reasons Harsin was. Obviously recruiting would’ve been better. But culture fit matters. Georgia and Alabama fans don’t have to like their coach. They just have to have them win… at any cost. Smart would’ve spent 2 years fighting with boosters for control and not doing the Auburn Man PR stuff that an Auburn coach has to do. If Kirby was still able to have success in that situation, he would’ve darted to another open job. Also, he would’ve tried to implement a pro style scheme without the personnel to do it in his first year or two. That plus the infighting… I don’t think he would’ve even had much success at all here. 

Interesting take. The only thing I’d add is that there are  only 2 schools that are in top 5 recruiting states with virtually no instate recruiting competition: lsu and uga.

Edited June 29, 2023 by auburnatl1

[Old fan 47 775]

On 6/28/2023 at 11:56 AM, W.E.D said:

Gus killed himself.

He had an unique offense that took advantage of rules.  The rules changed and he couldn't adapt.  He's doing the same thing at UCF.  Giving play calling duties away, taking  them back...offense looks awful and lost.

Coaches have to innovate, especially over the last 10 years.  Style of play has drastically change.  Saban adapted.  Kirby was awful to start, then adapted with a better offense bet was able to keep his absurd/historic level defenses.

Hugh will have to continuously adapt if he wants to be successful 

Agree with this assessment. I made a comment a few seasons ago about GM following the sustained success UCF has had and he simply is not near the great O mind I and many of us thought he was. Tack on his recruiting slipping for at least the final two years, the bad hire of Harsin, which I was more than willing to give a chance, and here we lie. I don’t think we will ever catch UGA in recruiting, but good solid recruiting and coaching, will at least get AU back to respectability. 

[Old fan 47 775]

On 6/28/2023 at 1:45 PM, W.E.D said:

I think the chances of him winning a Natty would be high.

Yeah, I want to win the whole thing....but we've literally never had consistency.  Like ever.  maybe 1 time we had two back to back good seasons?  88 and 89?  outside those years, we average 7.5 wins after a 10 win season.  That's just sad.

Yep. Most all of AU’s issues have been self inflicted. Nothing to lose at this point. At least Freeze is busting his tail to correct the mess his friend and the prior moron created. AU has only been consistent at winning 8 or 9 and then taking a dive for a few years. Hope that is corrected, because, Richt for all the flak he catches, was a consistent 10 win guy numerous years. Aren’t we still looking to have back to back 10 win seasons? 

[JerryAU 1,694]

8 minutes ago, Old fan 47 said:

Agree with this assessment. I made a comment a few seasons ago about GM following the sustained success UCF has had and he simply is not near the great O mind I and many of us thought he was. Tack on his recruiting slipping for at least the final two years, the bad hire of Harsin, which I was more than willing to give a chance, and here we lie. I don’t think we will ever catch UGA in recruiting, but good solid recruiting and coaching, will at least get AU back to respectability. 

I don't have faith that Auburn recruiting will catch up to the elite level of uga/uat, and now Florida's decided to act like they know how to recruit again.  The addition of Texas & OK joining will be too steep a hill to conquer. 

Historically Auburn's record tells the tale and as long as they get back to being a competitor and fielding a product no one wants to face, I'm ok with it. I can easily swallow consistent 9-win seasons with 10 wins mixed in and +10 wins at least once every 5 years... that just may be good enough to get a spot in the 12 team CFP.  

[Gowebb11 9,429]

10 minutes ago, Old fan 47 said:

Aren’t we still looking to have back to back 10 win seasons? 

Last time was 1988-1989. Hard to believe. 

[gr82b4au 5,568]

48 minutes ago, Gowebb11 said:

Last time was 1988-1989. Hard to believe. 

Only time in AU history. Even more hard to believe. 

[alexava 6,973]

Offensive line recruiting. Plain and simple. 

[Viper 3,139]

On 6/27/2023 at 5:06 PM, auburnatl1 said:

we haven’t found a work around.

Thank God for the portal. 

Else we would permanently become Ole Miss/MSU/ARK.

[aubaseball 2,673]

On 6/28/2023 at 12:32 PM, auburnatl1 said:

I agree but imo it was also disastrous timing. If richt had stayed I’ve wondered if Gus would still be here.  Just putzing along with 8-9 wins and half our base going nuts that we “have to demand more” (ie uga’s fans during richt). Kirby destroyed the recruiting status quo (1/3 of uga’s current roster would historically have gone to au) and with now 2 elite predators in our backyard (1st time ever both were/are elite at the same time) - Gus’s flaws were exposed, recruiting collapsed, and he was roadkill.

Agree to disagree, but the Georgia thing started with Richt.   He was dominating Auburn years before Kirby got there.   Kirby has taken it to another level.   Auburn will only become dominant when Auburn gets out of its own way.    Auburn had proven that it can win at the highest level but can’t sustain it because Auburn gets in the way, not someone else.   

[auburnatl1 5,253]

14 minutes ago, aubaseball said:

Agree to disagree, but the Georgia thing started with Richt.   He was dominating Auburn years before Kirby got there.   Kirby has taken it to another level.   Auburn will only become dominant when Auburn gets out of its own way.    Auburn had proven that it can win at the highest level but can’t sustain it because Auburn gets in the way, not someone else.   

I agree we can control only what we can control. But imo how strong our recruiting competitors are has a huge impact on the difficulty of success and how perfect our program has to execute. Just like in any business free market.

[bigbird 60,580]

13 hours ago, alexava said:

Offensive line recruiting. Plain and simple. 

[AUwent 3,778]

38 minutes ago, auburnatl1 said:

I agree we can control only what we can control. But imo how strong our recruiting competitors are has a huge impact on the difficulty of success and how perfect our program has to execute. Just like in any business free market.

Yeah, I think the "Auburn just gets in its own way" narrative is vastly overstated.

Edited July 1, 2023 by AUwent

[Viper 3,139]

On 6/28/2023 at 12:00 PM, AuCivilEng1 said:

the next great football coach to take over the sport and make people forget Nick Saban forever.

The guy you’re speaking of has already won 2 in a row. 

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 hour ago, AUwent said:

Yeah, I think the "Auburn just gets in its own way" narrative is vastly overstated.

How so?  Every coach since 1980 has essentially ruined their own career.

Dye - Caught Cheating
Bowden - Skiiing and Cheerleaders
Tubs - Hated PTB and quit trying/recruiting
Gene - Believed in Energy Vampires & spying
Gus - Refused to change anything

Maybe hugh will break the cycle