Iron Bowl Preview - Advanced Metrics Edition

[woodford 3,667]

Despite being 10-1, Alabama has not lit up the score board or the box score like in years past. They're still efficient but not the world beaters they were with Young or Tua. This is how they stack up against Auburn.

Net Points Per Drive:

Alabama #12 - 1.3

Auburn #51 - 0.2

Alabama is ranked 78th in OLD which is points per drive when they start inside their own 20 and Auburn is 90th. For reference, UGA is ranked 4th. 

Net Available Yards:

Alabama #22 - 0.115

Auburn #79 - (-0.51)

Auburn has struggled finishing drives. Alabama is outside the top 50 in every offensive available yard statistic, but their defensive is inside the top 15 in every defensive available yard statistic. 

 

• Only in Success Rate is where Auburn matches Bama, everything else the Tide has a clear advantage in. They have a much more efficient offense.
• Neither Bama nor Auburn throw the ball around that much compared to the rest of CFB but the Tide is more efficient when passing. I don't have to tell you that.
• Alabama has been run heavy this year looking more and more like the early Saban teams which is never a good sign. Auburn has a good success rate when running the ball. They will probably have to rely on their stable of backs on Saturday

 

 

• Defense is where Auburn can hang with Alabama and will be the deciding factor. They have the ability to slow Alabama down and give their offense a chance
• The Tide has shut down a lot of the passing attacks they've faced this year. Auburn has held their own but a step down for sure.
• Against the run is where these two teams seem to mirror each other. Biggest concern for Auburn is Alabama is in the 9th percentile is defensive rushing success rate. Can Auburn run the ball against Alabama? That is a big question that will get answered on Saturday.

 

• Last data points I wanted to share. Both teams are almost even on standard down success rate. Auburn has a poor success rate on passing downs. They cannot be in a lot of 2nd or 3rd and longs and expect to win. They need to win on the first couple of downs and get to 3rd and manageable. Especially when they're in scoring opportunities in the green zone (inside Bama's 40)

 

 

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by woodford
Typo

[Dwayne Pride 379]

You trying to replace Stat?

[I_M4_AU 7,964]

Just now, Dwayne Pride said:

You trying to replace Stat?

Impossible.

[woodford 3,667]

5 minutes ago, Dwayne Pride said:

You trying to replace Stat?

Lol no. Funny you mention him, he's one of the reasons I decided to make this a hobby and share with everyone.

[Hank2020 3,217]

5 hours ago, woodford said:

Lol no. Funny you mention him, he's one of the reasons I decided to make this a hobby and share with everyone.

Appreciate the stats and your delivery of them.

[AUpreacherman22 3,889]

Good stuff as always Wood!

 

Short version:

bama is decent

Auburn stinks! 
 

Hang on guys!  We’ll get there soon!

[AUBwins 10,082]

All year I thought Bama was not as good.  Should have 3 losses at least by now.  But I admit they have now gelled and found their stride.  They are finally looking like a top 10 team.  I still think we can beat them (have to be on our game though). Just saying they look much better than they did. And that sucks.  Lol

[NWALA Tiger 3,535]

TTTown Men's Wear has played 1 complete team, Texas.  LSU is one dimensional. Ole Miss is a good team not great. Tennessee has been blown out 2 times and lost to a below avg Gator team. 

The problem is, AU ain't a complete team. I don't think this is a elite Bammer team. But not sure we good enuf to hold our water this game

Edited November 23, 2023 by NWALA Tiger