Can we run on Alabama?

[StatTiger 3,188]

For the season, Alabama is allowing only 89 yards rushing per game but 7 of their 10 opponents were ranked 86th in rushing or lower. A closer look reveals that Alabama is currently holding their opponent to an average of -38 yards below their rushing average. Seven of their opponents have averaged 123 yards or less per game on the ground, so holding them under 100 rushing isn't a major accomplishment.

Arkansas was the best rushing team they faced and the Razorbacks gained 237 yards against Bama, while averaging 234 per game. Florida was held to 139 but averaged only 152 on the year. Tennessee was held to 109 but they have averaged only 112 for the season. Utah State gained 150 on the Tide, while averaging only 109 on the season. Don't get me wrong, I believe Alabama's defense is good but not nearly as dominating as their 1992 unit, though some Bama faithful believe the two are equal. Their 92 defense allowed only 49 yards per game on the ground and 11 of their 13 opponents were held to under 100 rushing. The most rushing yards gained on the ground against their "D" was 138 yards.

IMO, Arkansas, Florida, Tennessee and Utah State proved that a good running team could establish a decent ground game against them. For the season, Auburn is averaging 209 yards on the ground and will be the 2nd best running attack Alabama has faced and the best overall offense the Tide has competed against this year. Even if Bama holds Auburn to -38 yards below the Tigers’ seasonal average, we're still looking at 171 yards on the ground.

Under Tuberville, Auburn is 18-6 when they rush between 104 and 179 yards on the ground. Mix in a completion pct of at least 56% in those 24 games and Auburn is 15-2, when they rush for 104 to179 yards and complete at least 56% of their passes in the same game. If Borges can maintain balance in our offense, I believe we will be just fine on Saturday. It's essential that we establish our ground game in at least half of our offensive possessions, which will open up the passing game. This basically has been the theme of our offense this season. Take out the two losses and we are running the ball 64% of the time, which is identical to our run pct from last season. Borges likes the passing game but he knows the true value of running the ball, more so since his arrival at Auburn.

I expect a low scoring battle this Saturday and I believe the team with the better running game will win in Jordan-Hare. I also believe we have the OL and backs to get the job done. Kenny Irons doesn’t have “shake & bake” but he hits the hole like a bat out of hell and he packs some punch behind his 205-pound frame. He will take some shots in the backfield because Alabama has great LB’s but he only needs a small crease to break a long run. Having Lester available to spell Irons would be a major plus. If Lester can’t go, it would be great to see Tristan with a few carries.

WDE /

[DKW 86 7,726]

SSSSHHHHH!

Dont say this out loud Stat!

Move along people, nothing to see here.....

[AUloggerhead 2,356]

AU moved the ball on everyone else so why not uat? Mike Greenfield's site lists uat only 9 rungs from the bottom of NCAA Div 1-A's Strength of Schedule. Playing LSU moved them up 5 rungs from last week: link

Team  Rating

111. Alabama (9-1) -0.322

112. Nevada (6-3) -0.324

113. TCU (10-1) -0.325

114. Toledo (6-2) -0.332

115. Middle Tenn. St (3-5) -0.333

116. Miami (OH) (6-3) -0.344

117. Louisiana Tech (6-3) -0.402

118. UTEP (7-1) -0.422

119. Fresno State (7-1) -0.495

I suspect their Strength of Schedule rating will rise after playing AU too.

[AUHansel 0]

AU moved the ball on everyone else so why not uat?  Mike Greenfield's site lists uat only 9 rungs from the bottom of NCAA Div 1-A's Strength of Schedule.  Playing LSU moved them up 5 rungs from last week:  link

Team  Rating

111. Alabama (9-1) -0.322

112. Nevada (6-3) -0.324

113. TCU (10-1) -0.325

114. Toledo (6-2) -0.332

115. Middle Tenn. St (3-5) -0.333

116. Miami (OH) (6-3) -0.344

117. Louisiana Tech (6-3) -0.402

118. UTEP (7-1) -0.422

119. Fresno State (7-1) -0.495

I suspect their Strength of Schedule rating will rise after playing AU too.

198731[/snapback]

we're only 100th on that list

[StatTiger 3,188]

AU moved the ball on everyone else so why not uat? Mike Greenfield's site lists uat only 9 rungs from the bottom of NCAA Div 1-A's Strength of Schedule. Playing LSU moved them up 5 rungs from last week: link

Don't look at who they played but how they played them. For the season, Alabama has held their opponent to -13 pts below their seasonal average. They do have a solid defense. On paper, LSU should have won by 10-14 pts but the scoring margins indicated that Alabama was .5 pts better than LSU mainly on their defensive numbers. The game was a 10-10 tie at the end of regulation. Based on the current scoring margins, Auburn is +4 pts better than Alabama. We shall see...

[CarolinaTiger 0]

i don't see how any bama fan can rate this year's defense better than their 1992 defense. that was as solid a group as there's been, IMO

[Texan4Auburn 1,626]

LSU was using their third string tailback against Alabama also. Broussard went down at the beginning of the year and Addai was nowhere near 100% and was limited.

The other question would be how does Alabama react to what is probably the most balanced attack they have faced all year.

Those are still the same DB's on the same recievers that exposed them last year.

[TitanTiger 20,708]

LSU was using their third string tailback against Alabama also.  Broussard went down at the beginning of the year and Addai was nowhere near 100% and was limited.

The other question would be how does Alabama react to what is probably the most balanced attack they have faced all year.

Those are still the same DB's on the same recievers that exposed them last year.

198759[/snapback]

LSU's third string tailback could start at most schools. Broussard and Addai are great backs, but Vincent is not your typical third stringer. I'd venture to say he'd be 2nd string behind Irons at AU because we'd love to have a bruiser come in for a change of pace vs. Irons' speed and explosiveness. Looking around the league, I'd say Vincent would win the starting job at Florida, S. Carolina, Ole Miss, Vandy, and Tennessee. He'd be 2nd string but get a decent amount of carries at Auburn, Bama, Georgia, Kentucky or Miss. State. I'd venture to say the situation would be similar at other schools outside the SEC as well.

[quietfan 233]

Of course, opponent comparisons ultimately dont reveal much in the long run, but another way to look at these stats: Florida rushed for 139 and Tennessee rushed for 109 and I'm sure our rushing attack is much better than their's. Arkansas got 237 and they are very one-dimensional. I like the odds that with our balance, Bama won't be able to concentrate on the rush as they could against Arkansas.

[i'm ignoring the Utah State game completely because I expect Bama emptied the bench that day, much like us with Kentucky-it's not representative of how good their starting defense is.] Anyway I don't see why, other than the emotions of Iron Bowl, we couldn't get more rushing yards than anyone they've played this year. But will that be enough to win?

But if playing the "compare opponents" game, I sort of look at it this way: Tennessee and LSU played them to essentially a dead heat (overtime). Ole Miss and Miss. State came close to that. We beat LSU statistically (though I'd still swap those stats for a "W"). I think our defense compares favorably with LSU, and our offense is better. I KNOW we're better than Tennessee, Ole Miss, and MSU. I also believe, in order to stop our rushing game, they will have to leave Cox & Co. a lot of room for the passing game.

On paper I think there's good reason why we're favored Saturday, but I'm still sweating bullets, crossing my fingers, and contemplating other superstious rituals. It is, after all, the Iron Bowl, and the winner will be the one who wants it more psychologically.

[chuck 0]

I have to disagree about LSU's running back's. Alley Broussard is the real deal - I will not question that, and he would be an huge asset on any SEC Team.

My thing with Addai is that he has never been able to establish himself as the starter at LSU. He would have sat behind Broussard this year - he did sit behind Broussard and Vincent last year. Two years ago he sat behind primary Vincent. I guess my question is that if he is so good, how does he keep getting beat out by freshman RB's at LSU.

Vincent has had one productive season - 2003 - and let's face it - that team was so balanced, any RB would have had a good season. How much pressure can a team put on stopping a run when single coverage on either Michael Clayton or Devery Henderson is basically an automatic 1st down?

I actually believe that Shyrone Carey looked the best (not counting Broussard) but I don't rate LSU's RB's nearly as high as others do.

[MDM4AU 337]

For the season, Alabama is allowing only 89 yards rushing per game but 7 of their 10 opponents were ranked 86th in rushing or lower. A closer look reveals that Alabama is currently holding their opponent to an average of -38 yards below their rushing average. Seven of their opponents have averaged 123 yards or less per game on the ground, so holding them under 100 rushing isn't a major accomplishment.

  Arkansas was the best rushing team they faced and the Razorbacks gained 237 yards against Bama, while averaging 234 per game. Florida was held to 139 but averaged only 152 on the year. Tennessee was held to 109 but they have averaged only 112 for the season. Utah State gained 150 on the Tide, while averaging only 109 on the season. Don't get me wrong, I believe Alabama's defense is good but not nearly as dominating as their 1992 unit, though some Bama faithful believe the two are equal. Their 92 defense allowed only 49 yards per game on the ground and 11 of their 13 opponents were held to under 100 rushing. The most rushing yards gained on the ground against their "D" was 138 yards.

  IMO, Arkansas, Florida, Tennessee and Utah State proved that a good running team could establish a decent ground game against them. For the season, Auburn is averaging 209 yards on the ground and will be the 2nd best running attack Alabama has faced and the best overall offense the Tide has competed against this year. Even if Bama holds Auburn to -38 yards below the Tigers’ seasonal average, we're still looking at 171 yards on the ground.

  Under Tuberville, Auburn is 18-6 when they rush between 104 and 179 yards on the ground. Mix in a completion pct of at least 56% in those 24 games and Auburn is 15-2, when they rush for 104 to179 yards and complete at least 56% of their passes in the same game. If Borges can maintain balance in our offense, I believe we will be just fine on Saturday. It's essential that we establish our ground game in at least half of our offensive possessions, which will open up the passing game. This basically has been the theme of our offense this season. Take out the two losses and we are running the ball 64% of the time, which is identical to our run pct from last season. Borges likes the passing game but he knows the true value of running the ball, more so since his arrival at Auburn.

  I expect a low scoring battle this Saturday and I believe the team with the better running game will win in Jordan-Hare. I also believe we have the OL and backs to get the job done. Kenny Irons doesn’t have “shake & bake” but he hits the hole like a bat out of hell and he packs some punch behind his 205-pound frame. He will take some shots in the backfield because Alabama has great LB’s but he only needs a small crease to break a long run. Having Lester available to spell Irons would be a major plus. If Lester can’t go, it would be great to see Tristan with a few carries.

WDE /     

198719[/snapback]

This idiot called into WJOX this morning and claimed to have done some number crunching. He said that UAT has held it's opposition to 30% less than their average. He also said that UAT would do the same to AU, move the ball on AU, and win the game.

In his number crunching, did he (a.) forget about the 11 guys on the other side of the ball for AU or (b.) somehow figure that the UAT defense would somehow take that 30% difference and give it to the UAT offense. :huh:

[AUloggerhead 2,356]

AU moved the ball on everyone else so why not uat? Mike Greenfield's site lists uat only 9 rungs from the bottom of NCAA Div 1-A's Strength of Schedule. Playing LSU moved them up 5 rungs from last week: link

Don't look at who they played but how they played them. For the season, Alabama has held their opponent to -13 pts below their seasonal average. They do have a solid defense. On paper, LSU should have won by 10-14 pts but the scoring margins indicated that Alabama was .5 pts better than LSU mainly on their defensive numbers. The game was a 10-10 tie at the end of regulation. Based on the current scoring margins, Auburn is +4 pts better than Alabama. We shall see...

198754[/snapback]

The reason I posted the strength of schedule comparison is to dispel any comparison with AU's 2004 team. Last year's CHAMPIONSHIP team compiled their #1 scoring defense stats against opponents that made up the 5th toughest strength of schedule in the country. In contrast, this year's non-champion bammie squad has compiled their "#1 defense" stats against opponents that rank uat's strength of schedule near the bottom of all Div-1A teams. That's all. Some people don't think strength of schedule matters a whole lot. Maybe it does & maybe it doesn't. I'm just pointing it out. WDE

[StatTiger 3,188]

Some people don't think strength of schedule matters a whole lot. Maybe it does & maybe it doesn't. I'm just pointing it out.

I agree AUloggerhead. SOS is vital when comparing teams. This is the very reason why I look at how Auburn compared to our opponent's other opponents. By looking at the scoring margins I picked the following...

Arkansas +13, we won by 17

LSU +3, we lost by 3 but missed 4 FG's in regulation

Ole Miss +21, we won by 24

UK: +32, we won by 24

Georgia +6, we won by 1.

In our last 5 games, I've missed the scoring margin by 2.4 pts. Obviously no system is perfect because you cannot predict certain factors of the game but it does give a realistic perspective.

[Tigermike 3,425]

Some people don't think strength of schedule matters a whole lot. Maybe it does & maybe it doesn't. I'm just pointing it out.

I agree AUloggerhead. SOS is vital when comparing teams. This is the very reason why I look at how Auburn compared to our opponent's other opponents. By looking at the scoring margins I picked the following...

Arkansas +13, we won by 17

LSU +3, we lost by 3 but missed 4 FG's in regulation

Ole Miss +21, we won by 24

UK: +32, we won by 24

Georgia +6, we won by 1.

In our last 5 games, I've missed the scoring margin by 2.4 pts. Obviously no system is perfect because you cannot predict certain factors of the game but it does give a realistic perspective.

198868[/snapback]

OK when do we leave for Vegas!

i don't see how any bama fan can rate this year's defense better than their 1992 defense. that was as solid a group as there's been, IMO

198757[/snapback]

I agree CT, their 1992 defense had three guys playing in the secondary that could cover anyone man to man. They could shut down a passing game and that opened up a lot of possibilities for the defensive coaches. With those guys on the corners, coach Oliver could work wonders.

[rolltoomer 0]

Minnesota ran all over this same defense in the bowl game--what did they do?