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CFN's prediction of BAMA


collijo

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24. Alabama Alabama Preview

Predicted Finish: 7-5 2005 Predicted Finish: 8-3 2005 Record: 10-2

Now the real work begins for head coach Mike Shula as he needs to replace seven fantastic starters from a defense that was among the best in the game, has to find a steady starting quarterback, and needs to quickly develop depth at just about every position. Meanwhile, the two teams that tagged the Tide last year, LSU and Auburn, appear to be just as good, if not better, while the tough early road trips are at Arkansas, Florida and Tennessee. Bama is a year away from making an honest run for the SEC title, but that doesn't mean this can't be another successful season.

Relative Strengths: running back, receiver Relative Weaknesses: quarterback, special teams

B) I'd say I would have to agree but, that I would say 8-4 on the season.

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If Alabama loses 5 games ill eat my hat.

251118[/snapback]

@ Florida, @ Tennessee, @ LSU? That's tough! Then ending with Auburn in Tuscaloosa...

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You might go out and buy a really tiny hat--something organic like those Hawaiian leaf jobs--and start soaking it in brine right away. Leave it in the goo all season, or until the L number gets to 5. Will make it easier on yourself.

Members will want to see pix, of course. Maybe a notarized witness or two.

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If Alabama loses 5 games ill eat my hat.

251118[/snapback]

@ Florida, @ Tennessee, @ LSU? That's tough! Then ending with Auburn in Tuscaloosa...

251120[/snapback]

We'd have to lose EVERY one of those games AND one other...I just dont see it.

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If Shula wasn't running the offense... I'd say no way. But, that ain't changing. So... I'm gonna have to say there is a "chance." But I highly doubt they'll lose that many.

Cmon BG... I know its highly unlikely to finish with 5 losses... but for a team that last year relied heavily on the defense just to win games (which lost 7 starters).... and with horrible redzone production (Prothro will most likely miss the season, Croyle is gone, OL is probably getting better in the offseason) its not a crazy prediction. Especially with the away schedule you guys have.

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Bama will more than likely be 8-4.......loosing all of those mentioned above by Bamagrad......but 7-5 is not that unlikely with Arky on the road. But I will go with 8-4.

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We all know what predictions are worth...but that being said...here's mine for UAT.....

UAT loses too: Hawaii, Arkansas, Florida, LSU, Tennessee, and Auburn

question is....will BG want Salt,Pepper and Ketchup on his hat???? or perhaps there is another condiment of choice??? :big:

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If Alabama loses 5 games ill eat my hat.

251118[/snapback]

I won't go so far as to make the same bold statement, but I really don't see Alabama losing 5 either. I think 8-4 is very realistic, and 9-3 is possible.

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I'm not sold on Arky being so much better. I think Bama loses 4 games: Florida, LSU, Auburn and Tennessee. They might pop up and knock one of those off. My most likely bet would be Tennessee because I'm not sure they've gotten their woes straightened out either. They lost a lot on defense.

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The schedule for Alabama this year does them no favors, that's for sure. They'll start off 3-0, without actually having to accomplish anything. Then they dive right into their brutal road schedule against an Arkansas team that is certain to be no slouch. The game between the two last year was closer than the score indicated. It will be interesting to see how they respond in Hogville. If they do manage to get by the 'Backs, they still have to go to Gainesville, Knoxville, and Baton Rouge before looking to squash the thumb on Nov. 18. If they go 8-4, that means they either get a road win or an Iron Bowl win. Either way, if I were them, I'd take it and run. 9-3 and they should be ecstatic. Still, if the ball doesn't bounce their way, 7-5 is a very, very real possibility.

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If Alabama loses 5 games ill eat my hat.

251118[/snapback]

What does houndstooth taste like?

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If Shula wasn't running the offense... I'd say no way.  But, that ain't changing.  So... I'm gonna have to say there is a "chance."  But I highly doubt they'll lose that many. 

Cmon BG... I know its highly unlikely to finish with 5 losses... but for a team that last year relied heavily on the defense just to win games (which lost 7 starters).... and with horrible redzone production (Prothro will most likely miss the season, Croyle is gone, OL is probably getting better in the offseason) its not a crazy prediction.  Especially with the away schedule you guys have.

251155[/snapback]

vatz, you make some good points, but I think you'll be surprised this year. MOST of our offensive woes last year were due to a terrible offensive line. Not play calling. And our Oline will be one of the best in the league this year.

The reason i dont think we lose 5 is our schedule. I think we lose @arky but win @UF. We have 7 built in wins at home. We ALWAYS play great in baton rouge...and Im not sold on UT being much better than last year quite yet.

Similar to Brandon Cox's situation last year, JPW will have 3 starts under his belt before a big road test. And by the time he gets to the UT game, he wont be a newbie anymore.

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If Shula wasn't running the offense... I'd say no way.  But, that ain't changing.  So... I'm gonna have to say there is a "chance."  But I highly doubt they'll lose that many. 

Cmon BG... I know its highly unlikely to finish with 5 losses... but for a team that last year relied heavily on the defense just to win games (which lost 7 starters).... and with horrible redzone production (Prothro will most likely miss the season, Croyle is gone, OL is probably getting better in the offseason) its not a crazy prediction.  Especially with the away schedule you guys have.

251155[/snapback]

vatz, you make some good points, but I think you'll be surprised this year. MOST of our offensive woes last year were due to a terrible offensive line. Not play calling. And our Oline will be one of the best in the league this year.

The reason i dont think we lose 5 is our schedule. I think we lose @arky but win @UF. We have 7 built in wins at home. We ALWAYS play great in baton rouge...and Im not sold on UT being much better than last year quite yet.

Similar to Brandon Cox's situation last year, JPW will have 3 starts under his belt before a big road test. And by the time he gets to the UT game, he wont be a newbie anymore.

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BG, this is an sincere query, not a prod: I would like to know how it is that Bama will have one of the best O-lines in the league this year.

It may be true, but I don't have the insight.

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The bama OL will have more experience and be more improved but being one of the top units in the SEC is still at least a year or two away.

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They simply MUST be "improved" over last year. Is there any way they can be worse than '05?

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I am missing on why they will be the best O-line in the conference. Their best lineman (Closner) graduated. Outside of Stabler who I am not sure who they are banking on. At the end of the year last year, their line was very bad (see LSU and AU game). If they are relying on freshman then they could be in for a terrible surprise. Every once in a while you have a freshman o-lineman that can contribute or even start. But as a general rule freshman o-lineman do not have the strength or body mass to play against SEC level defensive talent. It takes a couple of years to develop.

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BG, this is an sincere query, not a prod: I would like to know how it is that Bama will have one of the best O-lines in the league this year.

Totally valid question considering our struggles last year. The reason our Oline was so bad last year was depth. Closner went down in the Miss St game. Bama allowed 17 sacks over the next 2 games. They had allowed only 20 the entire season leading up to that. Antoine Caldwell is looking VERY strong at center. He was great at right guard, but now has got the center thing down. We lost Mark Sanders early in the year last year and he was playing very well. BJ Stabler returns as does Kyle Tatum who is a tremendous run blocker. We have two solid players coming off of redshirt and we have Andre Smith coming in. Andre will start day one at Bama...and he will be an improvement over what we had in Chris Capps.

In the iron bowl, we started two of five guys on the o line who will never see the field again. Taylor Britt was very bad at center...and it showed. Caldwell is a huge step up from that.

Id say we will be in the top 3 units in the league.

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I don't think we'll be one of the best O-lines in the league this season. I just don't see how a unit could make that quick of a 180 in a couple of months.

However, I do think we'll be much improved along the O-line and in turn will have a better offense. The line was relatively young last season, sans Closner (he didn't even play against LSU and AU) and they'll get better with age. We signed the #2 class in the nation as far as offensive lineman this past February as well... including #1 overall prospect Andre Smith. We have great shot of being the best O-line in the league downfield... just not in 07 IMO.

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I'll say 8-4 or 9-3 for the turds. They have 5 gimmes on the schedule and you have to believe they will win at least 3 of the tough ones. Losses to FL, LSU and AU, with UT a tossup.

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Guest Tigrinum Major
Totally valid question considering our struggles last year. The reason our Oline was so bad last year was depth. Closner went down in the Miss St game. Bama allowed 17 sacks over the next 2 games. They had allowed only 20 the entire season leading up to that. Antoine Caldwell is looking VERY strong at center. He was great at right guard, but now has got the center thing down.

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Who replaces him when he goes down?

Where's the depth now?

I'll give you the argument that the line will be better, simply because they couldn't be any worse.

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Who replaces him when he goes down?

Where's the depth now?

I'll give you the argument that the line will be better, simply because they couldn't be any worse.

Another valid question. We have a couple of guys, like Justin Moon, who were servicable last year but had nagging injuries. We have 2 coming off redshirts, and a few incoming freshmen who are more talented and capable than 2 or 3 we had starting at seasons end last year.

Now, if we have a few well placed injuries...we will be in big trouble. But there's not a lot of teams in the nation that could sustain losing 2 starting OL and not really feel something. Especially if one was the center.

Again, it should be repeated...through 9 games we gave up 20 sacks. In 2 games we gave up 17. The only difference? We lost our center.

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