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State of the Race: 8/1


RunInRed

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The media is telling us the race is close but is it really?...

SOTR_8_1_3.gif

The tally is Obama 336, McCain 202

Obama has lost his lead in Indiana, but gained new narrow ones in Florida and Montana. All Kerry states remain in Obama's hands, most of them fairly comfortably.

Now let's look at the battleground state map. The states in yellow are all states in which the poll aggregate is in single digits:

SOTR_8_1_2.gif

This is what a map-changing campaign looks like. Compared to last edition, Oregon moves back to safe Obama, while formerly solid McCain states South Dakota, Arizona, and Arkansas move into "battleground" status. McCain has good news just in West Virginia, with that state moving back into solid Red territory.

Note that on this map above, 210 electoral votes are safe for Obama, but just 72 for McCain. Obama is playing deep in Red territory, while McCain is having little luck digging into the Blue states. And Obama's ad spending is indicative of this, as he advertises in the following Red states: Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia. For his part, McCain is putting his money in just the usual suspect purple Kerry states -- Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Given the poll numbers right now, McCain's spending in Wisconsin ($1.426 million) and Minnesota ($575K) has been particularly wasteful. And given Obama's nine-point lead in Pennsylvania, the $4.6 million McCain has spent on the air war there doesn't look much better.

One more map:

SOTR_8_1_4.gif

This is Pollster.com's map: Obama 284, McCain 147, Tossup 107.

It takes 270 electoral votes to win. Today, Obama is 14 EVs above that threshold, while McCain is 123 below it.

Whether it's Pollster.com's count or Real Clear Politics' countsfact is that Obama currently enjoys a sizable lead.

The media may try and play this as a tied game, or that Obama should be winning by more, but the reality is much tougher for Republicans. McCain has a serious challenge on his hands. That's why they've gone hard negative.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ma...s_mccain/?map=5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ma..._mccain/?map=10

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Very optimistic Obama map makers.

Damn they might as well quit now, I suppose.

But the way I see it is the more people concentrate and get a good look at who Obama is and what his policy directions will be, the more those independents will move toward the center. Who will they find in the center? John McCain that's who. As much as he tries to make a "move to the center", Obama just can't pull it off. He is far left, not just far left, but looney left terrritory.

How close is it? Check it out.

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We elect Presidents based on electoral college votes - not popular vote.

Real Clear Politics is now "obama map makers"? - interesting.

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