Note on consistency and perception

[StatTiger 3,188]

Last season placed Auburn back into the national picture but only continued success at this highest level will create the "perception" of being an elite program.

Consider the percentage of seasons Auburn had with a win percentage of .750 or better...

1950-1959: 30.0% - 1 SEC Title

1960-1969: 20.0%

1970-1979: 40.0%

1980-1989: 60.0% - 4 SEC Ttiles

1990-1999: 30.0%

2000-2009: 30.0% - 1 SEC Title

2010-2013: 50.0% - 2 SEC Titles

It is easy to see why the 1980's under Pat Dye is considered the most successful decade of Auburn football. This current decade has the potential to be as good as the 80's.

The Big Six in the SEC: ( Pct of seasons of .750 or better 1990-2013)

Florida ................. 62.5% *8 SEC Titles

Alabama .............. 54.2% *4

LSU ..................... 50.0% *4

Tennessee ........... 50.0% *3

Georgia ............... 45.8% *2

Auburn ................ 33.3% *3

The Big Six in the SEC (2000-2013):

LSU ..................... 71.4% * 4 SEC Titles

Alabama .............. 57.1% *2

Florida ................ 50.0% *3

Georgia .............. 50.0% *2

Auburn ................ 35.7% *3

Tennessee ........... 21.4% *0

Though Florida had a horrible season last year, a 10-win season in 2014 gets them back in the media spotlight immediately because of their history over the past 24 seasons. Alabama is basking in the spotlight under Nick Saban, who has won 4 MNC's since arriving in the SEC. Alabama is currently on a six-year run of 10-wins or more, which is why they are so highly ranked entering the 2014 season. Voters will give Alabama and Nick Saban the benefit of the doubt based on their recent success. Keep in mind it is much easier for reporters and members of the media to write and report on teams that are successful than researching the teams that are about to make their runs of success.

Even LSU without Nick Saban has maintained their national presence in the world of college football because of their success under Les Miles. Les Miles has led LSU to a MNC and two conference titles since taking over the program.

Despite not winning a MNC, Mark Richt and Georgia tend to receive positive media attention. The Bulldogs went 8-5 last season (finished unranked) and lost their most productive QB but are ranked No. 12 in the preseason Coaches Poll (2014). This is likely built upon their ability to post .750 seasons at a 50% clip over the past 14 seasons. Over the past 5 seasons UGA has compiled a 4-13 record against teams that won 75% of their games and are 2-3 in bowl games. Their last conference championship was in 2005.

[Auburnfan91 1,407]

Even though the 1990's and 2000's decades each had 30% of the the teams finish .750 or better, the 2000's teams were much more consistent. Auburn only had 1 losing season from 2000-2009. Auburn had 3 losing seasons and 1 .500 season from 1990-1999.

Auburn hasn't been perceived as a power type program since Tuberville had a nice run from 2004-2007. Auburn was pre-season top 10 even in Tuberville's last year 2008. Since 2009, Auburn has been perceived as a 7-5 team that can have a great championship type season once every few years. That's why we don't get respect from the media like LSU, Alabama, and Georgia. Even South Carolina is starting to get respect because Spurrier's been able to get South Carolina to 11 wins three years in a row.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Auburn's national win pct ranking by decade:

1950-1959: 30th

1960-1969: 31st

1970-1979: 28th

1980-1989: 10th

1990-1999: 23rd

2000-2009: 14th

2010-2013: 19th

[AU64 10,122]

Thanks Stat....a little dose of painful reality for some folks I expect....but good to know the facts....even if they conflict with our perceptions....and especially the idea that we have somehow earned the right to be ranked high every year. Those who have any kind of memory or who have been around a while know that AU has a history of up and down seasons and rarely has had a real stretch when it was a top 10 team.

Gus has a chance to put us on a winning streak....but the schedule is tough and in the SEC, even very good teams still lose a few games.

[RunInRed 16,407]

Good stuff Stat ... really enjoyed this read.

[FHeal 4]

Auburn's national win pct ranking by decade:

1950-1959: 30th

1960-1969: 31st

1970-1979: 28th

1980-1989: 10th

1990-1999: 23rd

2000-2009: 14th

2010-2013: 19th

So we're overdue?

[IndianTiger 95]

Great info...in the late 80's (at some point) we also had the 2nd most number of players in the NFL (among all schools)

We have a chance to build on our success and its all about consistency.

[AURex 1,995]

Yes, it really is about consistency over a long enough period to establish an identity as a winning program. They say fame is fleeting, but as we know, history is not. Auburn does have great years occasionally, but is perceived as being middle of the pack over the long haul. And I'm not sure that perception is wrong, historically.

Changing history, inventing the new perception -- yep, consistency is the key. Otherwise, the occasional years of success are just perceived as aberrations. The 2010 championship was an aberration built on the back of Cam Newton. The 2013 team was an aberration built on Malzahn's genius and some amazingly lucky plays. In between, losses by embarrassingly huge scores, disaster season, ugly off-field issues.

Even if Auburn does not go undefeated this year, Auburn needs to be competitive year after year. That's something that has been hard to accomplish. I'm really hoping CGM can build that kind of consistently winning program at Auburn.

In Auburn's favor building that winning identity -- Gus Malzahn is widely perceived (and commented upon by media) as a genius with startlingly successful offensive abilities. If Auburn can string together 9, 10, and 11 win seasons over the next 5 years, Auburn will enter the national picture as one of those elite power teams. But it will be impossible (I think) unless Auburn figures out how to field a decent defense year after year. IMO, you cannot expect offense to carry the entire load.

[WarNole 141]

Enjoyable and interesting read as always.

Thanks Stat.

[lala 327]

This is why I believe this such an important yr for a Coach Gus if we want to be in the level of UF, al and LSU. I fully expect us to have a wonderful yr with Marshall at QB.

With another dominant yr and a win against the great satan will only push us to an 80's level and keep the recruiting mo that is needed to compete on a yearly. basis.

[WFE12 9,191]

Yes, it really is about consistency over a long enough period to establish an identity as a winning program. They say fame is fleeting, but as we know, history is not. Auburn does have great years occasionally, but is perceived as being middle of the pack over the long haul. And I'm not sure that perception is wrong, historically.

Changing history, inventing the new perception -- yep, consistency is the key. Otherwise, the occasional years of success are just perceived as aberrations. The 2010 championship was an aberration built on the back of Cam Newton. The 2013 team was an aberration built on Malzahn's genius and some amazingly lucky plays. In between, losses by embarrassingly huge scores, disaster season, ugly off-field issues.

Even if Auburn does not go undefeated this year, Auburn needs to be competitive year after year. That's something that has been hard to accomplish. I'm really hoping CGM can build that kind of consistently winning program at Auburn.

In Auburn's favor building that winning identity -- Gus Malzahn is widely perceived (and commented upon by media) as a genius with startlingly successful offensive abilities. If Auburn can string together 9, 10, and 11 win seasons over the next 5 years, Auburn will enter the national picture as one of those elite power teams. But it will be impossible (I think) unless Auburn figures out how to field a decent defense year after year. IMO, you cannot expect offense to carry the entire load.

that is exactly what i'm saying, may the odds be ever in our favor

[AU64 10,122]

Yes, it really is about consistency over a long enough period to establish an identity as a winning program. They say fame is fleeting, but as we know, history is not. Auburn does have great years occasionally, but is perceived as being middle of the pack over the long haul. And I'm not sure that perception is wrong, historically.

Changing history, inventing the new perception -- yep, consistency is the key. Otherwise, the occasional years of success are just perceived as aberrations. The 2010 championship was an aberration built on the back of Cam Newton. The 2013 team was an aberration built on Malzahn's genius and some amazingly lucky plays. In between, losses by embarrassingly huge scores, disaster season, ugly off-field issues.

Even if Auburn does not go undefeated this year, Auburn needs to be competitive year after year. That's something that has been hard to accomplish. I'm really hoping CGM can build that kind of consistently winning program at Auburn.

In Auburn's favor building that winning identity -- Gus Malzahn is widely perceived (and commented upon by media) as a genius with startlingly successful offensive abilities. If Auburn can string together 9, 10, and 11 win seasons over the next 5 years, Auburn will enter the national picture as one of those elite power teams. But it will be impossible (I think) unless Auburn figures out how to field a decent defense year after year. IMO, you cannot expect offense to carry the entire load.

that is exactly what i'm saying, may the odds be ever in our favor

If we can string some of those 10-11 win seasons together AU will get the benefit of the doubt from the national media and not always be in the position of having to work our way up the rankings from 25th or whatever. Most media people know that you can't go too wrong betting on Bama.....the don't win them all of course,but history is on their side at this time. Three or four top ten finishes for AU will cause people to automatically pick us near the top...even when we lose some important players from the previous season.

[WFE12 9,191]

Yes, it really is about consistency over a long enough period to establish an identity as a winning program. They say fame is fleeting, but as we know, history is not. Auburn does have great years occasionally, but is perceived as being middle of the pack over the long haul. And I'm not sure that perception is wrong, historically.

Changing history, inventing the new perception -- yep, consistency is the key. Otherwise, the occasional years of success are just perceived as aberrations. The 2010 championship was an aberration built on the back of Cam Newton. The 2013 team was an aberration built on Malzahn's genius and some amazingly lucky plays. In between, losses by embarrassingly huge scores, disaster season, ugly off-field issues.

Even if Auburn does not go undefeated this year, Auburn needs to be competitive year after year. That's something that has been hard to accomplish. I'm really hoping CGM can build that kind of consistently winning program at Auburn.

In Auburn's favor building that winning identity -- Gus Malzahn is widely perceived (and commented upon by media) as a genius with startlingly successful offensive abilities. If Auburn can string together 9, 10, and 11 win seasons over the next 5 years, Auburn will enter the national picture as one of those elite power teams. But it will be impossible (I think) unless Auburn figures out how to field a decent defense year after year. IMO, you cannot expect offense to carry the entire load.

that is exactly what i'm saying, may the odds be ever in our favor

If we can string some of those 10-11 win seasons together AU will get the benefit of the doubt from the national media and not always be in the position of having to work our way up the rankings from 25th or whatever. Most media people know that you can't go too wrong betting on Bama.....the don't win them all of course,but history is on their side at this time. Three or four top ten finishes for AU will cause people to automatically pick us near the top...even when we lose some important players from the previous season.

though i am kind of conflicted about this because i've relished in the fact that auburn has been the team to sneak up and own teams when no one's paying attention to them,take a while to get used to being one of "those" teams

[cptau 169]

This list of teams for the 2000 to 2013 period points out how tough it is to be in the SEC West.

Georgia playing in the east was at 50% for those seasons with a .750 win record and 2 SEC championships. Auburn was at 35% and had one more SEC championship.

Three West teams won 9 out of 14 SEC championships. Two East teams won the remaining 5.

[AU64 10,122]

Yes, it really is about consistency over a long enough period to establish an identity as a winning program. They say fame is fleeting, but as we know, history is not. Auburn does have great years occasionally, but is perceived as being middle of the pack over the long haul. And I'm not sure that perception is wrong, historically.

Changing history, inventing the new perception -- yep, consistency is the key. Otherwise, the occasional years of success are just perceived as aberrations. The 2010 championship was an aberration built on the back of Cam Newton. The 2013 team was an aberration built on Malzahn's genius and some amazingly lucky plays. In between, losses by embarrassingly huge scores, disaster season, ugly off-field issues.

Even if Auburn does not go undefeated this year, Auburn needs to be competitive year after year. That's something that has been hard to accomplish. I'm really hoping CGM can build that kind of consistently winning program at Auburn.

In Auburn's favor building that winning identity -- Gus Malzahn is widely perceived (and commented upon by media) as a genius with startlingly successful offensive abilities. If Auburn can string together 9, 10, and 11 win seasons over the next 5 years, Auburn will enter the national picture as one of those elite power teams. But it will be impossible (I think) unless Auburn figures out how to field a decent defense year after year. IMO, you cannot expect offense to carry the entire load.

that is exactly what i'm saying, may the odds be ever in our favor

If we can string some of those 10-11 win seasons together AU will get the benefit of the doubt from the national media and not always be in the position of having to work our way up the rankings from 25th or whatever. Most media people know that you can't go too wrong betting on Bama.....the don't win them all of course,but history is on their side at this time. Three or four top ten finishes for AU will cause people to automatically pick us near the top...even when we lose some important players from the previous season.

though i am kind of conflicted about this because i've relished in the fact that auburn has been the team to sneak up and own teams when no one's paying attention to them,take a while to get used to being one of "those" teams

Like you, I love proving "them" wrong but after we saw how hard it was to climb the board in 2004 where someone above us had to lose before AU could move up....and how hard it is to jump over another undefeated team...almost impossible. As they say...if you are at the top, there is only one way to go...but at least you command your own destiny and are not depending on Wisky or Sparty or someone to knock off the teams above you.

We start this season high enough that we don't have to wait for a dozen teams to lose unexpected games so we can replace them in the rankings...and move toward #1 (or 2 or 3.... or 4 )....just win our own games and don't worry about what happens in Oklahoma or California or where ever....that's a good place to be.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,666]

When Malzahn said he plans on bringing championship expectations back to this program, it's gonna be a lot harder than I thought

[WFE12 9,191]

Yes, it really is about consistency over a long enough period to establish an identity as a winning program. They say fame is fleeting, but as we know, history is not. Auburn does have great years occasionally, but is perceived as being middle of the pack over the long haul. And I'm not sure that perception is wrong, historically.

Changing history, inventing the new perception -- yep, consistency is the key. Otherwise, the occasional years of success are just perceived as aberrations. The 2010 championship was an aberration built on the back of Cam Newton. The 2013 team was an aberration built on Malzahn's genius and some amazingly lucky plays. In between, losses by embarrassingly huge scores, disaster season, ugly off-field issues.

Even if Auburn does not go undefeated this year, Auburn needs to be competitive year after year. That's something that has been hard to accomplish. I'm really hoping CGM can build that kind of consistently winning program at Auburn.

In Auburn's favor building that winning identity -- Gus Malzahn is widely perceived (and commented upon by media) as a genius with startlingly successful offensive abilities. If Auburn can string together 9, 10, and 11 win seasons over the next 5 years, Auburn will enter the national picture as one of those elite power teams. But it will be impossible (I think) unless Auburn figures out how to field a decent defense year after year. IMO, you cannot expect offense to carry the entire load.

that is exactly what i'm saying, may the odds be ever in our favor

If we can string some of those 10-11 win seasons together AU will get the benefit of the doubt from the national media and not always be in the position of having to work our way up the rankings from 25th or whatever. Most media people know that you can't go too wrong betting on Bama.....the don't win them all of course,but history is on their side at this time. Three or four top ten finishes for AU will cause people to automatically pick us near the top...even when we lose some important players from the previous season.

though i am kind of conflicted about this because i've relished in the fact that auburn has been the team to sneak up and own teams when no one's paying attention to them,take a while to get used to being one of "those" teams

Like you, I love proving "them" wrong but after we saw how hard it was to climb the board in 2004 where someone above us had to lose before AU could move up....and how hard it is to jump over another undefeated team...almost impossible. As they say...if you are at the top, there is only one way to go...but at least you command your own destiny and are not depending on Wisky or Sparty or someone to knock off the teams above you.

We start this season high enough that we don't have to wait for a dozen teams to lose unexpected games so we can replace them in the rankings...and move toward #1 (or 2 or 3.... or 4 )....just win our own games and don't worry about what happens in Oklahoma or California or where ever....that's a good place to be.

great point man,didn't think about that...War Eagle buddy!

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

Good info Stat. I do think that Gas has made a big impression on the national scene. If he wins 10 plus and takes out lil nick this year the perception will change to nick can not match Gus. I think that will happen and beginning next year AU will be the team out front. If we can make it back to the big game this year, and I think we can, then since 2009 we will have played in 3 and uat will have played in 3, so much for nick's domination. AU has o had 3ad seasons in that 20, all three were caused by coaches changing their offenses. WDE

[lemonade_drinker 1]

Anybody else think that Au is a better all time program than uga, uf, ut, and Lsu? I am biased, but the numbers are a wash.

[AU64 10,122]

Good info Stat. I do think that Gas has made a big impression on the national scene. If he wins 10 plus and takes out lil nick this year the perception will change to nick can not match Gus. I think that will happen and beginning next year AU will be the team out front. If we can make it back to the big game this year, and I think we can, then since 2009 we will have played in 3 and uat will have played in 3, so much for nick's domination. AU has o had 3ad seasons in that 20, all three were caused by coaches changing their offenses. WDE

Unlikely IMO, gotta do more than just beat him a couple times....even the dynasty coaches have up and down years and it takes more than three or four really good seasons for a coach to earn a reputation. Nick has his NCs and you can't take those away from him....hate to be a spoil sport here but AU has a ways to go to jump Bama's national reputation...not that I care very much.

Some people seem to think Nick got where he is because he is just lucky or who knows....but I don't think he has forgotten how to coach and a couple of losses to AU won't do too much to diminish his reputation as long as they continue to win 10 or 11 each year.....but do like Tubs and take 5 or 6 in a row, ....now you're talking.

[gman87 398]

Nick has his NCs and you can't take those away from him....

Actually they CAN and probably should take at least a couple away, but for some reason, illegal benefits aren't illegal over their.

[AU64 10,122]

Nick has his NCs and you can't take those away from him....

Actually they CAN and probably should take at least a couple away, but for some reason, illegal benefits aren't illegal over their.

C'mon....quit yer crying....it's unmanly

[CJBas 4]

And that's why I am not overly optimistic going into this season. For decades I've been treated with Auburn following excellent seasons with dismal ones. I don't know why they do that, but they do. And that perception nationally isn't based entirely on fiction.

We all hpe Malzahn can break that habit of ours. And I hope he can also. But I'll need to see it happen before being fully convinced it's been done.

[2010primetime 2]

THIS IS A NEW DAY! I BELIEVE GUS IS A RARE BREED. AND LOSING THAT CHAMPIONSHIP IN 13 SECONDS IN STUCK IN HIS CRAW! WITH NO MAJOR INJURIES I BELIEVE WE CAN GET BACK IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME AND CLOSE THE DEAL THIS TIME. :wareagle: :wareagle:

[trout54 55]

if i' m not mistaken, most of our good seasons were followed by a lot of leadership attrition (ie graduation, nfl draft, etc). this team is still relatively young, so I don't see much correlation.