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Oregon Game will be big Crapshoot


AUght2win

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Hi, Oregon fan here. I'm getting some football withdrawals, and studying up on Auburn led me here. Really cool to read your perspectives, and this is a great game for both programs; a prime time game of the week against a big time opponent. 

First off, I'd like to thank Auburn for beating Washington last year. They needed to be humbled a bit, I could take another year of their bragging. 

There was a really well done analysis by Brandon Marcello  that is very accurate. It describes our expected 2019 team better than anything I've seen written by an Oregon writer. That might clear up some misconceptions, because I've seen.a few. Here's my description of Justin Herbert and Co:

Justin Herbert: he's a future NFL QB for a reason. That reason is arm talent. It's truly elite, he can make any throw. The knock on him has been consistency, and it's a fair criticism. One play you have a bigger and faster Aaron Rodgers, the next play you have a dog with a box on it's head. Herbert's stats are underwhelming from last year, a big reason was our incredible NCAA leading 52 dropped passes, more on that later. Herbert is about 6'6" 235 and will put up a 4.5-6 type 40, he's faster than all but a few of our WRs. We don't run him much to protect the golden child, but he will roll out (very accurate on the move) and gash you with his legs if he gets the chance. 

Offense: This is a completely different offense from the Chip Kelly days, and you guys are giving it too much credit. We run a pistol type offense, similar to what Nevada did with Colin Kaepernick, although we run the QB a lot less. It's a conservative offense that prioritizes short-medium gains on runs up the middle. #34 CJ Verdell and #26 Travis Dye are the workhorses. Both are short backs, 5'9ish and 210lbs for Verdell and 200 for Dye. 

The strength of the entire team is the OL. All five starters returning, with a sixth who is virtually a starter. #54 Calvin Throckmorton is the RT and a potential first round pick, #68 LG Shane Lemieux is a mauler and one of the top guards in the nation, #55 C Jake Hanson joins them as four year starters. The one to watch is #58 LT Penei Sewell. The 6'6" 360 pounder took the LT job as a true freshman and wound up as a freshman All-American despite missing half the season. He is a monster and has been mentioned as a potential top overall draft pick. In our awful bowl game against Michigan State he shut down their All America DE before breaking the guys leg.

WRs were awful last year, except for 75 catches, 1200 yards and 10 TDs from Dillon Mitchell. Mitchell left early for the NFL. That leaves us with speedy #30 Jaylon Redd, and the hulking Penn State transfer #6 Juwan Johnson as the top options. 52 drops last year, and two true freshmen have already worked their way into the depth chart. 

Defense: While you guys are giving too much credit to our offense I don't think the defense is getting enough. First off, we're not even sure what scheme we will see as we fired Jim Leavitt (not for on field performance) and hired away Boise State's Andy Avalos. The names to watch are #35 ILB Troy Dye. Dye has led us in tackles for three straight years, he's a quick LB that causes havoc on blitzes and is excellent in coverage. You'll see him a lot because he is the emotional leader and not shy about celebrating. #34 NT Jordon Scott is the key to our run defense, 330 pounds and a rear end that makes Charles Barkley look anorexic. Our secondary is plenty talented, but short on depth. Good chance our 3 and 4 CBs are true freshmen. CBs Thomas Graham, Deommo Lenoir, and safety Jevon Holland combined for 11 INTs in conference play, and Graham had 18 pass breakups. 

We're not sure what to expect from our defense, with a new coordinator. But most of us are pretty optimistic it will be significantly better than last year. Lots of experience, and some fresh young talent. 5-star DE Kayvon Thibodeaux is our best hope for a pass rush, as he's been killing people in practice and players are saying he's a freak unlike anything they've ever seen. The two guys he's trying to replace were both drafted, one of whom was one of the freaks of the combine, so we're excited to see him in a live game.

Overall this isn't the Oregon team people are used to. We still have some speedy guys, but Mario Cristobal's focus is on physicality. We out-muscled Washington last year, and Stanford for three quarters until everything went wrong. Then we did it to Michigan State. All teams that also rely on physicality. I hope you guys don't have another Nick Fairley, barring that I don't either team will have a significant advantage. Looking at the rosters it appears Oregon is bigger in the trenches, which is a new thing for us. 

Some GIFs

ExcitableComplicatedFulmar-size_restrict Herbert has wheels.

giphy.gif Our WRs specialize in dropping perfectly thrown passes

Justin-Herbert-GIF-downsized_large.gif. Herbert can really sling it on the move. #30 Jaylon Redd on the TD catch.

ZV2AV2.jpg Pistol set. Line  crashes down, LG pulls #34 CJ Verdell is gone.

0*zuaiyr4fvHyz3qnl.gif #34 NT Jordon Scott is a fun one to watch. Smart teams use a double team. dye-edge.gif?resize=640,360&ssl=1  #35 Troy Dye is the star of our defense. 307 career tackles, 32 TFL, 11 sacks.

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On 5/15/2019 at 2:36 PM, McLoofus said:

There's not a single thing that Gus does consistently. Not one. Not even the bad stuff. 

Waffle House 

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12 hours ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

Neither of these teams are anything like the ones in 2010. Don't mean to be rube but this is a awful take.

Always be worried about Gus and any decent power 5 team. But this one sets up great for Gus. He can dominate a weak D like no other coach I've seen. IMO, he will do it again in this game.

I know the teams are no where near comparable.

I was simply stating that the exact same things people had just said, right above my comment, were the same things people said in 2010 when we played them. 

Of course the teams are different. We dont have one of the most dynamic players in college football history at QB, at least not yet. But that was also kind of the point.

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19 hours ago, meh130 said:

Those Oregon 2010 comparisons are interesting. Oregon was a very different program back then. A big, hulking OL and small, agile WRs, RBs, and QBs with a maddening Chip Kelly option based offense that made Gus Malzahn "Fast" seem slow. Cam was playing hurt the whole game with a back injury. As for the belief a "miracle run" by Dyer won the game, we had to slow down and eat up the clock after that. And Dyer popped off another big run and almost scored. We only needed a field goal, so even if Dyer had been called down on the miracle run, we likely would have gotten well within field goal range with the time that was left.

The Ducks are the favorite to win the Pac-12 this year. This seems so much like the 2018 game against Washington, who was the Pac-12 preseason favorite last year. The biggest differences I see are the Ducks to not have to travel as far, and we have to travel farther.

Oregon will likely be ranked around #10 to #12, and we will likely be ranked around #16 or #17. My guess is Oregon will be a slight favorite.

Obviously, the big battles will be our DL vs. the Duck's OL, and our secondary vs. the Oregon WRs. On our offense I think it will be our OL vs. the Duck's DL, and the overall performance of our QB(s). I might go a little deeper and say our Buck's performance will be critical, and our RB performance will be critical.

A flight from ATL to DFW is +/-2.5 hrs

A flight from EUG to DFW is +/- 6 hrs

?

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Just now, Randman5000 said:

See their beat writer breakdown of the team for 2019: 

Herbert is a beast. 

https://247sports.com/college/auburn/LongFormArticle/Better-Know-a-Foe-QA-with-an-Oregon-beat-writer-132087594/


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Better Know a Foe: Q&A with an Oregon beat writer
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Better Know a Foe is a daily series dedicated to providing more information on Auburn's Power 5 opponents. This week Auburn Undercover focuses on Oregon, the Tigers' season-opening opponent.

Today: A Q&A with Oregon beat writer Matt Prehm of DuckTerritory.com.

We have previewed everything you need to know about Oregon, whether it be seven facets of the team you need to understand, five players to be familiar with before the season opener, and a breakdown of each positional matchup. Now it's time to hear from someone close to the team. Enough talk from 2,700 miles away from the heart of the Oregon program in. Let's make a digital drive to Pac-12 country and get the skinny from someone on the ground walking and covering the campus of the University of Oregon every day.

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We turned to Matt Prehm of our sister site, Duck Territory, to get a better understanding of the Ducks. We talk plenty about Heisman Trophy candidate Justin Herbert and that strong offensive line, but we also discuss the defense and early thoughts on what will happen in the season opener Aug. 31. That's right, Matt makes a way-too-early prediction for the game. The Auburn247 staff will do the same Friday as we conclude our five-part series previewing the Ducks.

Auburn vs. Oregon (Advocare Classic)
When: 6:30 p.m. CT, Aug. 31
Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
TV: ABC


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1. How much does having a quarterback like Justin Herbert change the offense and what Oregon can do on the field? Was it surprising he returned?

Herbert has all the tools to be the best quarterback in the country. He had those tools last year as well. The two items that have held him back and are my main concern going into this season are the players around him and then his internal clock. Sometimes Herbert gets locked in on one guy and doesn't move to his next read. Now, that being said, he didn't have a lot of production last year outside of Dillon Mitchell. So it was kind of a tough deal. You could look away from Mitchell but the talent and the production that came with it was a huge drop-off.

He's a legit 6-foot-6 and he's well over 230 pounds. He isn't slow-footed either and if given the chance he can run away from a defender for a first down, or even a touchdown if a defense doesn't pay attention to him. I'm not saying he's going to run for 100 yards a game, heck, not even 50, but the threat of him getting a chunk of yards is always there. His arm is impressive as he can make all the throws. His best skill in my opinion is his IQ. He's got a GPA over 4.0 in biology and was named the Google Cloud Academic All-American Team Member of the Year this past December. Those same book smarts have translated over to the football field. He showed up as a freshman in 2016 in late June and by mid-August had the entire offensive playbook down and was telling starters where to go and where to be.

As crazy as it sounds, it wasn't really all that shocking that he stayed in school. He never really was about going to the pros as quickly as possible, he's grown up in Eugene as a fan of the team, and he has family who played for this team as well. So this is a unique situation where he's very emotionally invested. I also think coming back to improve on his reads and then grow as a leader were worth the risk.


2. I see Oregon dropped 52 passes, including eight potential touchdowns, last season. Is there concern with the receivers this upcoming season?

That right there is the biggest concern with this football team. They lost their leading receiver Dillon Mitchell a year early to the NFL and everyone coming back had some kind of inconsistency. Either dropped passes, pour route running, or couldn't see the field. A lot of production was lost because of players (including Mitchell) dropped passes that were very catchable. Now the Ducks knew this was an issue and they have a new wide receiver coach and a handful of new players. Penn State transfer Juwan Johnson is a very physical receiver that Oregon is banking on becoming a go-to guy right away. Four freshmen receivers were signed this past off season, and two of them enrolled early and quickly got work with the first and second team offenses during spring ball. Combine Oregon's newcomers with better off season development among the returners and Oregon is hoping the issues will have worked themselves out.


3. I keep hearing Oregon has the best offensive line in the country. What are your thoughts, and what makes this group a threat to challenge for that distinction?

I wouldn't give them the No. 1 title. I would however say they are one of the best in the country and likely the top offensive line in the Pac-12 this coming season. A big reason for that is because Oregon has three starters who have held their position since stepping onto the field as redshirt freshmen in 2016. All three were top recruits out west in their recruiting class. Senior Calvin Throckmorton is likely a second round pick and can play all three positions, but starts at right tackle. Senior left guard Shane Lemeiux is going to be another mid-round NFL draft pick and fellow senior and center Jake Hanson is considered a late-round draft pick. Among those three guys they have 112 combined starts. Senior tackle Brady Aiello doesn't start full-time but he's got 20 career starts under his belt filling in for injured players the last two years, and then being a full-time starter in 2016 as a redshirt freshman. Senior guard Dallas Warmack was a graduate transfer from Alabama and started 12 of the 13 games he played last season for the Ducks. Then there is Penei Sewell. The sophomore offensive tackle started seven games for the Ducks last year and missed the other six because of injury. Oregon coaches are very high on Sewell and Mario Cristobal says he's as talented of a lineman he's ever coached. Internally at Oregon there is talk that Sewell will end up being a Top 10 draft pick when he comes out either for the 2021 or the 2022 NFL Draft. Oregon will have five four-star offensive linemen in reserves if needed this upcoming season, including two different Top 3 junior college offensive linemen in senior George Moore and junior Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu.

This group is so highly regarded because they are huge, they are athletic, they are talented, and now they have a ton of depth.


4. The defense certainly had its moments last season, even while relying on freshmen at some key spots in the secondary. What is the outlook this season on defense?

There was only one freshman who played any significant moments for Oregon's defense in the secondary, and that was freshman All-American Jevon Holland. Everyone else expected to start for the Ducks in the secondary are returning starters and juniors. Thomas Graham and Deommodore Lenoir are both potential NFL guys in 2021 as true seniors at cornerback. Nick Pickett is that three-star recruit who doesn't appear to have all the physical measurements other highly rated guys have but just seems to always be in the right spot. He's not perfect but he always find himself around the ball.

The defense is going to be interesting. They are going through a scheme change with the hiring of new defensive coordinator Andy Avalos from Boise State. His base defense is self-described as 'multiple.' If Auburn fans want to get a feel for what Oregon will do, I'd go and watch Boise State games from the last few seasons. Being they are also in my part of the country I get to see them a lot on TV and they are fun. They attack from all over the field, they don't often give you the same look twice in back to back plays.

There is a lot of high expectations for this group. Troy Dye is going on his fourth year as a starter at linebacker and is a future NFL player. They have a handful of highly ranked seniors who've been very solid for the last two seasons and now some high-level freshmen or transfers are joining the group. I'd pay attention to five-star freshman Kayvon Thibodeaux at defensive end, sophomore D.J. Johnson at the STUD linebacker position, and then junior nose tackle Jordon Scott. Those three guys figure to be the biggest disruption along the defensive line/edge.

5. Oh, it's so early, but I'd love to hear your early thoughts on Auburn-Oregon and, if the game were to be played today, who would win. Consider it a way-too-early prediction that no one will hold against you but will only prop you up should you prove to be correct.

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Oh man. That is tough. I haven't really watched much of Auburn yet so this would be a little bit of a stab in the dark here. I believe Oregon will have the best player on the field from either team in Justin Herbert. But I worry about the SEC speed the Tigers will have. Dallas will be almost a home game for the Tigers as well so that's going to be something to their advantage. Oregon's offensive line is going to be critical, and limiting the big play as well (which is something Oregon was good at last year).

I think Oregon wins in a very close game. I would think the Ducks will be favored and we'll even see a few people say the Ducks should win by five or six, but I am thinking something more like 30-28 or 27-24.

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Kickoff time, TV set for Auburn, Oregon season opener
By BRANDON MARCELLOWed May 15 2019
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Auburn and Oregon will kick off in primetime on a major national network.

The Aug. 31 season opener inside AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas is set for a 6:30 p.m. CT kickoff on ABC, it was announced Wednesday.

The meeting is only the second between the two schools, which last met when Auburn knocked off the Ducks 22-19 to win the BCS National Championship in January 2011. Only two people with direct connections to the BCS game remain on staff: Auburn coach Gus Malzahn, who was then the offensive coordinator; and receivers coach Kodi Burns, who caught a touchdown pass from Cam Newton in the title game.

Oregon returns 10 of 11 starters on offense, including projected first-round prospect Justin Herbert. Herbert threw for more than 3,100 yards last season.

Oregon finished with nine wins in 2018 and defeated Washington, the eventual Pac-12 champion. The Tigers knocked off Washington as well last season in a season opener played inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Auburn finished 8-5 with a 63-14 victory against Purdue in the Music City Bowl. Malzahn took over play-calling duties on offense following the departure of coordinator Chip Lindsey. The head coach will call plays this season.

Oregon landed the best recruiting class in school history in the offseason, and several newcomers are expected to contribute, especially on defense. The Ducks' class ranked fifth nationally, which includes recent transfer Chris Steele. Steele signed with Florida out of high school earlier this year but left the program following spring practices. The Ducks also landed Penn State graduate transfer Juwan Johnson at receiver. 

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The season opener will be played inside the home of the Dallas Cowboys and is part of the Advocare Classic. Auburn is 9-3 against Pac-12 opponents.

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Auburn Undercover will update this story.

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On 5/16/2019 at 7:35 AM, aujeff11 said:

You’re gonna love what our frand Danny Sheridan has to say about it all.

Hint: He reads this forum. 

 

curious as to why you would say this? not arguing just seriously curious. sheridan has always thrown shade at auburn over the years. i am not sure he can be objective when it comes to us. pretty much everyone knows gus and his struggles. and i am still waiting for danny boy to name the bag man.

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1 hour ago, keesler said:

A flight from ATL to DFW is +/-2.5 hrs

A flight from EUG to DFW is +/- 6 hrs

?

I mean we travel farther to Arlington than we did to Atlanta, and Oregon has to travel less to Arlington than Washington did to Atlanta.

I recall Washington's coach commenting on the travel distance difference between Washington and Auburn.

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On 5/13/2019 at 8:22 PM, gr82be said:

Auburn has been impossible to predict for years. It's not just a Gus thing so I don't want to be accused of derailing the thread. The last time I remember us being somewhat consistent year to year was the late '80's. Not sure which publication said it but I remember them saying that Auburn no longer rebuilds, they reload. Dye has us there for several seasons. Since then it's been a rollercoaster. Funny thing about reloading though, you can sometimes shoot yourself in the foot if you're not careful. 

I long for the days of watching a game and knowing we were going to beat the opponent because we were simply better, period. 

Those Dye teams of the eighties were pretty #$% good for sure but sometimes they would lose to inferior teams. See 84 Bama game and 86 Florida game for proof.

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12 hours ago, ChltteTiger said:

Those Dye teams of the eighties were pretty #$% good for sure but sometimes they would lose to inferior teams. See 84 Bama game and 86 Florida game for proof.

Yeah and Tubs was the same way. If you take away his first season and his last season, there were only 2 seasons he finished with less than 9 wins, but he always seemed to lose games he shouldn't...especially against Arkansas. Its strange, Gus and Tubs were both from Arkansas, and Arkansas always had Tubs number. Gus meanwhile absolutely obliterates Arkansas. Of course there could be some hard feelings over some things in the past... But my point is...Tubs, like Dye, was very consistent until the end of his days as coach.  

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On 5/16/2019 at 7:35 AM, aujeff11 said:

He reads this forum

I think thats a little presumptuous.

Grudge or not, to think that someone who makes a living off of talking about college football, couldnt see the things we see is foolish. No, the issues with Gus are glaring. So much so that arm chair QBs like me (and you) can easily point out just mind boggling issues...to boneheaded coaching decisions...to someone on staff not being able to count to 5...to my (now) 10 year old daughter who hates football being able to call the play before it happens... 

Professional sports journalists dont need to come to free fan sites to get their takes on Gus. The film and NFL draft history speak for themselves. Grudge or not, the issues are obvious to anyone who knows how to look. 

On the bright side, and i know Gus haters hate hearing this, but Gus is still maturing into the coach he will become. Normal growing pains happen. Especially with the inconsistency at OC he has faced and his back and forth im going to call plays, im going to be a ceo type coach, im going to call plays, im handing over playcalling duties, and now back to im calling plays. He has to figure out what kind of a coach he wants to be. Even little Nikki started out as Nick Saban and not the $aban machine he is today. It takes some coaches longer to take that next step than others. Gus can still right the ship. But he has run out of free passes. He HAS to win NOW. AND he needs to sustain that success. This 10+ win season followed by multiple years of around 8-5 or 7-6 only to make another run is getting old. He needs to find a way to AT LEAST turn those 8-5/7-6 seasons into 9-4s. Then he would find leeway with the fans, but until he improves his player progression, he will continue to be blasted by the sports media. 

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2 hours ago, Auburn2Eugene said:

think thats a little presumptuous.

 Grudge or not, to think that someone who makes a living off of talking about college football, couldnt see the things we see is foolish

It was a joke and Sheridan was wrong about a couple of things. Did he really see Nick Marshall’s regression? 

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"Ducks" .... "Crapshoot" ....

There's a joke in there somewhere...

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I do not see how we bury a Duck team that can be extremely explosive.  We will have to keep scoring imo.   A 3 TD lead in the 3rd would be incredible yet still not enough imo.  

Un proven line and unproven QB’s plus unproven LB’s in addition to worried about safety’s...   That all spells hang on to your hats folks.  

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11 hours ago, The Plainsman said:

I do not see how we bury a Duck team that can be extremely explosive.  We will have to keep scoring imo.   A 3 TD lead in the 3rd would be incredible yet still not enough imo.  

Un proven line and unproven QB’s plus unproven LB’s in addition to worried about safety’s...   That all spells hang on to your hats folks.  

I do think Oregon has the potential to be deadly offensively. However, they arent exactly facing SEC or especially Auburns Dline week in the the PAC....so I think we can contain them...we wont stop them...but we can contain them....Im curious why you are worried about safety? I think the secondary as a whole is one of the strengths of the team, or will be. Dinson and Thomas, backed up by smoke and sherwood....with Noah, J.D., and King Tutt, I think we will be solid...and i think much like 2017, our LBS show up quickly and become a strength

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7 minutes ago, WhoDatWarEagle said:

I think this is going to be a great year! I honestly believe a fire has been lit under gus’s ass. 

I would think someone would be self motivated being paid millions of dollars a year.

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I dont know where yall are coming from or what yall see that I dont. Our OL never jelled last season. Never.

We had at best 2 drives against UGA, and Bama just completely shut us down whenever they cared to do so. Until this OL shows up and shows out color me unsold. If they show up and play as bad as they did last season, we are 6-6. 

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28 minutes ago, DKW 86 said:

I dont know where yall are coming from or what yall see that I dont. Our OL never jelled last season. Never.

We had at best 2 drives against UGA, and Bama just completely shut us down whenever they cared to do so. Until this OL shows up and shows out color me unsold. If they show up and play as bad as they did last season, we are 6-6. 

Yeah, to some the RBs gaining 2 more yards per carry at the end of the season compared to the start is proof of the line gelling. 

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On 5/16/2019 at 4:41 PM, Canard said:

Oregon fan here

Welcome. And if you look at my name you will see that i too am an oregon fan. Unfortunately that comes behind being an Auburn fan. I lived in Eugene around 2 decades. I lived in Chase Village apartments almost right across the street from Autzen. 

Please come back and talk to us from an oregon perspective. I feel the need to point out a mistake in your comment.  You mentioned Marcello. If you want responses or whatever dont quote Marcello or James Crepea from the Oregonian. Regardless if he is correct or not, most around here think Marcello is an idiot and ignores or refuses to read ANYTHING he writes. Crepea, while now at the Oregonian, is only a season removed from being one of the most hated Auburn journalists in the modern era. Crepea covered Auburn for al.com which is basically the same thing as oregonlive.com for Alabama. Most Auburn fans hate al.com and even refuse to click on the site or any links to that site. 

Anyway, i hope you guys win out after losing to us. WDE! GoDucks! 

Man how i wished we would of done a home and home with Oregon while i was in eugene. Most of these people havent ever heard anything like Autzen. 

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1 hour ago, DKW 86 said:

I dont know where yall are coming from or what yall see that I dont. Our OL never jelled last season. Never.

We had at best 2 drives against UGA, and Bama just completely shut us down whenever they cared to do so. Until this OL shows up and shows out color me unsold. If they show up and play as bad as they did last season, we are 6-6. 

Isn't it funny how narratives evolve? "They were an abject embarrassment to start the season but were playing better by season's end" is now "We have one of the most seasoned lines in the conference and it should be a team strength". I mean, they might be good, but I'm with you. There's not a ton of evidence to go on. 

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On 5/15/2019 at 2:36 PM, McLoofus said:

There's not a single thing that Gus does consistently. Not one. Not even the bad stuff. 

he consistently has me saying words you cant say in church .

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On 5/22/2019 at 6:15 AM, Auburn2Eugene said:

Yeah, to some the RBs gaining 2 more yards per carry at the end of the season compared to the start is proof of the line gelling. 

How were they gaining 2 more ypc when we were getting shut down?

UGA: 102 yds on 20 carries = 5.0 ypc stat fluke here?

UAT: 130 yds on 43 carries = 3.0 ypc

 

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17 minutes ago, DKW 86 said:

How were they gaining 2 more ypc when we were getting shut down?

UGA: 102 yds on 20 carries = 5.0 ypc stat fluke here?

UAT: 130 yds on 43 carries = 3.0 ypc

 

The gameplan for the UGA game was... not great. IIRC we were running the ball pretty well in the first half and then we aired it out all second half when that clearly wasn't working and the game was still in striking distance. Maybe I'm misremembering but didn't we have a few nice runs called back in that game? Sorry I had to drink a lot of bourbon to get through that one. 

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IMO, I believe this Oregon game help us get an early look and figure out if Gus will get an 8th year or will 2019 be his last year as Auburn's head coach.

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1 hour ago, auburn4ever said:

IMO, I believe this Oregon game help us get an early look and figure out if Gus will get an 8th year or will 2019 be his last year as Auburn's head coach.

Yet another profound post from the professor of profundity!

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