March 10th Primaries

[AUDub 11,184]

This is probably Bernie's last gasp, and polling is looking really good for Biden, to the point that 538's model already has already realistically eliminated Bernie. 

Michigan is the lynchpin. On the one hand, Bernie way outperformed the polls last cycle, upsetting Clinton. On the other, Biden is definently not Clinton.

I suspect Biden shuts the door tomorrow. 

[AUDub 11,184]

538's forecast

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[AUDub 11,184]

 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

I'll be watching Washington.  If Biden wins there, a place far more liberal than Michigan, then it's really over.

And even if Bernie does come away with a win in Michigan tonight, the overall delegate haul could still go to Biden for the evening with the expected big wins in Mississippi and Missouri.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

Good read here about last week and where Biden's support is coming from.  Also why I strongly believe he's the only candidate that can take down Trump.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/suburbanites-are-backing-biden/607726/

 

[AUDub 11,184]

3 states called, 3 wins for Joe. Fat lady warming up. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

29 minutes ago, AUDub said:

3 states called, 3 wins for Joe. Fat lady warming up. 

I'm telling you dude.  Watch Washington

[AUDub 11,184]

12 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

I'm telling you dude.  Watch Washington

There's no realistic path forward at this point either way. He'll hang around, but this one is over barring catastrophe. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

36 minutes ago, AUDub said:

There's no realistic path forward at this point either way. He'll hang around, but this one is over barring catastrophe. 

Oh without a doubt.  But if he loses Washington, a state much more aligned with his typical support than Michigan, than he really has no path and no logical reason to stay in the race.  He will because it's likely his last run and he'll go out getting his issues in the forefront, but there's no logical path at all.

[AUDub 11,184]

Biden is speaking and clearly pivoting into general election mode, as he should. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

4 minutes ago, AUDub said:

Biden is speaking and clearly pivoting into general election mode, as he should. 

Bernie choosing not to speak tonight is telling.

[AUDub 11,184]

Just now, Brad_ATX said:

Bernie choosing not to speak tonight is telling.

I can't wait for Obama's stump speech. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

7 minutes ago, AUDub said:

I can't wait for Obama's stump speech. 

I mean, you gotta believe it will be a much more full throated endorsement than what he gave Hillary in 2016.

[Mikey 16,740]

The Dem's best candidate is getting less than 1%. I don't think it matters who they nominate anyway, neither one of the two front runners can do more than embarrass themselves in a debate with Trump.

[AUDub 11,184]

Just now, Mikey said:

The Dem's best candidate is getting less than 1%. I don't think it matters who they nominate anyway, neither one of the two front runners can do more than embarrass themselves in a debate with Trump.

LOL. Tulsi stans are funny. 

[Mikey 16,740]

3 minutes ago, AUDub said:

LOL. Tulsi stans are funny. 

Possibly. From the limited times I've seen her, she makes better sense than either of the other two. There were others that made more sense too, but alas....

[AUDub 11,184]

10 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Possibly. From the limited times I've seen her, she makes better sense than either of the other two. There were others that made more sense too, but alas....

If you hated Hillary for the opportunistic political creature she was, glomming on to Tulsi isn't the way to go. She's Hillary without tenure.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

42 minutes ago, Mikey said:

The Dem's best candidate is getting less than 1%. I don't think it matters who they nominate anyway, neither one of the two front runners can do more than embarrass themselves in a debate with Trump.

You mean the same guy who in a 2016 Republican debate couldn't answer a basic question about the nuclear triad?

Yeah, I'm sure they'll have a real tough time debating that guy.

[Mikey 16,740]

10 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

You mean the same guy who in a 2016 Republican debate couldn't answer a basic question about the nuclear triad?

Yeah, I'm sure they'll have a real tough time debating that guy.

The Dems have provided President Trump with easy pickin'. It's either a communist or a person in the onset of dementia. Looking across all the length and breadth of this great land, are these two the best the Dems could come up with? They should have devoted their time, money and energy for the past three years by identifying and grooming appealing young candidates with middle of the road ideals and electable qualities. Instead, they wasted all their treasure on one anti-Trump hoax after another and kissing the butts of the extreme left wing of their party. Now it's too late, unless they plan to draft some as yet unknown candidate at their convention.

[Mikey 16,740]

10 hours ago, AUDub said:

If you hated Hillary for the opportunistic political creature she was, glomming on to Tulsi isn't the way to go. She's Hillary without tenure.

That could be, we haven't been allowed to learn much about Tulsi. However, Hillary without tenure would be a step above Hillary with tenure. Tulsi does want to get us out of those stupid wars in the middle east. Those people have been killing each other since the days of the old testament. They don't need our assistance to keep doing that.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

30 minutes ago, Mikey said:

The Dems have provided President Trump with easy pickin'. It's either a communist or a person in the onset of dementia. Looking across all the length and breadth of this great land, are these two the best the Dems could come up with? They should have devoted their time, money and energy for the past three years by identifying and grooming appealing young candidates with middle of the road ideals and electable qualities. Instead, they wasted all their treasure on one anti-Trump hoax after another and kissing the butts of the extreme left wing of their party. Now it's too late, unless they plan to draft some as yet unknown candidate at their convention.

The people picked these candidates.  There were over a dozen to start and Biden has won out.  And if you haven't been paying attention to the data, it's the same voter block that swept the Dems into the House majority in 2018 that is pushing Biden forward now.

[I_M4_AU 8,003]

1 hour ago, Brad_ATX said:

The people picked these candidates.  There were over a dozen to start and Biden has won out.  And if you haven't been paying attention to the data, it's the same voter block that swept the Dems into the House majority in 2018 that is pushing Biden forward now.

What happened to the party of diversity?  The party that hates old white men?  What I see is a party that’s only platform is to beat Donald Trump no matter what.  That is not bringing the nation forward.  The 2018 push was the brought to you by the resistance and we got some real socialist in there (AOC, Omar and Tlaib). Please tell me there are some sane people left in the Democratic Party. 

[bigbird 60,580]

13 hours ago, Mikey said:

Possibly. From the limited times I've seen her, she makes better sense than either of the other two. There were others that made more sense too, but alas....

That sounds like the 2016 Republican primaries

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

5 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

What happened to the party of diversity?  The party that hates old white men?  What I see is a party that’s only platform is to beat Donald Trump no matter what.  That is not bringing the nation forward.  The 2018 push was the brought to you by the resistance and we got some real socialist in there (AOC, Omar and Tlaib). Please tell me there are some sane people left in the Democratic Party. 

You don't pay much attention do you?  AOC and the like won heavily Democratic districts.  Look at the swing districts that Dems took back.  They are far more centrist and conservative.  They also make up a far greater number of districts than the "squad".

Yes, this year it's all about beating Trump.  For many, he's an existential threat to our nation and needs to go.  Most of us here in the burbs of big cities, a place I happen to live, just want our boring old Washington back.  MABA (Make America Boring Again)!

And if you look at the suburbs and who's voting for Biden right now, it's the same places Trump won in 2016 but his candidates lost in the 2018 midterms.  And turnout among Dem primaries is way higher than 2016.  There's enthusiasm and it's rallied around a common cause.  We can get back to the business of moving forward once Trump is gone, but right now, it's about making a smart, pragmatic choice.  And that's what the Democratic electorate and a bunch of swing moderates are doing.

[homersapien 11,453]

28 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

What happened to the party of diversity?  The party that hates old white men?  What I see is a party that’s only platform is to beat Donald Trump no matter what.  That is not bringing the nation forward.  The 2018 push was the brought to you by the resistance and we got some real socialist in there (AOC, Omar and Tlaib). Please tell me there are some sane people left in the Democratic Party. 

The hell it's not.