March 10th Primaries

[I_M4_AU 8,003]

53 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

You don't pay much attention do you?  AOC and the like won heavily Democratic districts.  Look at the swing districts that Dems took back.  They are far more centrist and conservative.  They also make up a far greater number of districts than the "squad".

Yes, this year it's all about beating Trump.  For many, he's an existential threat to our nation and needs to go.  Most of us here in the burbs of big cities, a place I happen to live, just want our boring old Washington back.  MABA (Make America Boring Again)!

And if you look at the suburbs and who's voting for Biden right now, it's the same places Trump won in 2016 but his candidates lost in the 2018 midterms.  And turnout among Dem primaries is way higher than 2016.  There's enthusiasm and it's rallied around a common cause.  We can get back to the business of moving forward once Trump is gone, but right now, it's about making a smart, pragmatic choice.  And that's what the Democratic electorate and a bunch of swing moderates are doing.

In the two years they have been there the *squad* is the face of the Democratic Party. They have brought Pelosi to hers knees.  Pelosi has kowtowed to them from, almost, day one.  Yes, she did mention that a glass of water with a D next to their name would win their districts, but she has let this *squad* take over and it seems they are the underlying youth movement Bernie has been trying to cultivate as they are Bernie supporters, one and all.  There is a sense of underlying socialism in your party.

As to the bolded part, those suburbs are voting in a Democratic primary, no Republican voters. It is yet to be seen the enthusiasm the Republicans will garner in the general election, however, there has been a tremendous turnout in the primaries even though Trump is virtually unopposed.

It will make for an entertaining election season.  Good luck to us all.

[Auburn85 432]

Biden seems to be liked more by Democrats than Clinton. Granted, I'm basing that on the results of some of the primaries.

[Mikey 16,740]

Speaking of voter enthusiasm: I saw a blurb that in Texas, with no real Pubbie elections that got people excited, Trump still got more votes than Biden, Sanders and Bloomberg combined. Think about that for a spell.

[DKW 86 7,441]

30 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Speaking of voter enthusiasm: I saw a blurb that in Texas, with no real Pubbie elections that got people excited, Trump still got more votes than Biden, Sanders and Bloomberg combined. Think about that for a spell.

This is what is bothering me. DJTs base is energized NOW, will it stay energized thru November?

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

57 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Speaking of voter enthusiasm: I saw a blurb that in Texas, with no real Pubbie elections that got people excited, Trump still got more votes than Biden, Sanders and Bloomberg combined. Think about that for a spell.

Accurate, but misleading.  Add in Warren, who got 11.4%, and you're at an even number of raw votes.  All in, the Republican and Democratic primaries had a similar turnout here.

And if you look at 2016 vs this year, there were over 700k more votes cast in the Democratic primary last Tuesday than in the previous cycle.  Democratic turnout was up over 50% here in Texas.

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/primary-election-results/

Look, Texas ain't turning blue in November.  But the race here will be tighter than years past.  Several traditionally Republican districts flipped in 2018 and the state house is actually a possibility for the Democrats for the first time in two decades.

[Mikey 16,740]

8 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

Accurate, but misleading.  Add in Warren, who got 11.4%, and you're at an even number of raw votes.  All in, the Republican and Democratic primaries had a similar turnout here.

What you're saying is that the Dems, with a hotly contested  primary race, got about the same total number of voters out as the Pubbies, who had nothing of interest going on. I think that says plenty.

[Mikey 16,740]

9 hours ago, DKW 86 said:

This is what is bothering me. DJTs base is energized NOW, will it stay energized thru November?

How energized will they have to be to beat Bumbling Biden or whoever the Dems draft to replace him at their convention? Trump isn't going to just sit back and not campaign. Harris, Amy Klo, Steyer or even Dizzy Lizzy would have provided me with some concern. Biden will self-destruct.

I'm putting even money that the Dems draft someone at their convention. No telling who that might be, but any change from Biden will be an improvement for them.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

20 minutes ago, Mikey said:

What you're saying is that the Dems, with a hotly contested  primary race, got about the same total number of voters out as the Pubbies, who had nothing of interest going on. I think that says plenty.

Ummmm, 2016 was a far closer election for the Dems than 2020 is turning out to be.

And I'm saying that Democratic voter enthusiasm here is up.  That's all.  There are more Republicans here than Democrats.  That's not a secret.  This is still Texas and it's still pretty conservative as a whole.  Trump will win this state.

You're also discounting Republicans willing to show up to vote for House races and other down ballot elections here.  There are other things going on besides the Presidential race and Republicans lost several House seats in 2018 that they are trying to flip back.

But why you've chosen Texas as some beacon of light is beyond me.  You should really be looking at swing states.  Those will decide the election.

[Mikey 16,740]

16 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

But why you've chosen Texas as some beacon of light is beyond me.

I stated why I chose Texas above. Because I saw the blurb on some news outlet.

[DKW 86 7,441]

5 hours ago, Mikey said:

How energized will they have to be to beat Bumbling Biden or whoever the Dems draft to replace him at their convention? Trump isn't going to just sit back and not campaign. Harris, Amy Klo, Steyer or even Dizzy Lizzy would have provided me with some concern. Biden will self-destruct.

I'm putting even money that the Dems draft someone at their convention. No telling who that might be, but any change from Biden will be an improvement for them.

If it was going to be anyone, it was going to be Bloomberg. Nut essentially forgot how to speak in public in two debates and died miserably. $430M for 5 delegates

 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

6 hours ago, Mikey said:

How energized will they have to be to beat Bumbling Biden or whoever the Dems draft to replace him at their convention? Trump isn't going to just sit back and not campaign. Harris, Amy Klo, Steyer or even Dizzy Lizzy would have provided me with some concern. Biden will self-destruct.

I'm putting even money that the Dems draft someone at their convention. No telling who that might be, but any change from Biden will be an improvement for them.

How much?  I'll take bet right now.  Unless Joe is dead, he's the nominee.

[Mikey 16,740]

7 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

How much?  I'll take bet right now.  Unless Joe is dead, he's the nominee.

My limit is either a Coke or a dollar. Can you believe that a bammer fan once welshed on a 1 dollar bet? Anyway, name your poison, either a Coke or one dollar.

[bigbird 60,580]

@Mikey makes a good point about the enthusiasm going into the election.

It'll be interesting to see if the younger voters that Bernie monopolized and incentivized are willing to vote Democrat rather than vote Bernie. The other aspect that can't be ignored is, as Mikey said, is the Republican enthusiasm/turnout that has been showing up at his rallies and the polls. The turnouts in the "toss up" states has been impressive. I think there are a lot of people that, as in 2016, feel slighted or ignored and they feel their vote for Trump has been marginalized either by the outright obstuction and refusal to work with the president or the unyielding attacks and the latest "bombshell" (collusion/Russia/obstruction/impeachment/etc.). I think there is still a lot of anger from that group which might translate back into support for Trump. Don't get me wrong, I think there will be a very large anti-trump turnout as well, but I wonder if Biden and his "handlers" will be able to energize the entire party and reassure those in the middle that their priorities will garner real attention.

 

IMO, what would be great for Biden and the country is if he would select a centrist/conservative Democrat or a centrist/liberal Republican as VP. Someone like Sinema, Shaheen, Collins, Murkowski, Tester, Jenniffer González-Colón, or others that have a solid history of bipartisan work and desire.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

1 hour ago, Mikey said:

My limit is either a Coke or a dollar. Can you believe that a bammer fan once welshed on a 1 dollar bet? Anyway, name your poison, either a Coke or one dollar.

I'm on a diet, so a buck it is.

[bigbird 60,580]

5 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

I'm on a diet, so a buck it is.

The worst is when you have a dollar for a drink at a vending machine and you see its $1.25

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

29 minutes ago, bigbird said:

@Mikey makes a good point about the enthusiasm going into the election.

It'll be interesting to see if the younger voters that Bernie monopolized and incentivized are willing to vote Democrat rather than vote Bernie. The other aspect that can't be ignored is, as Mikey said, is the Republican enthusiasm/turnout that has been showing up at his rallies and the polls. The turnouts in the "toss up" states has been impressive. I think there are a lot of people that, as in 2016, feel slighted or ignored and they feel their vote for Trump has been marginalized either by the outright obstuction and refusal to work with the president or the unyielding attacks and the latest "bombshell" (collusion/Russia/obstruction/impeachment/etc.). I think there is still a lot of anger from that group which might translate back into support for Trump. Don't get me wrong, I think there will be a very large anti-trump turnout as well, but I wonder if Biden and his "handlers" will be able to energize the entire party and reassure those in the middle that their priorities will garner real attention.

 

IMO, what would be great for Biden and the country is if he would select a centrist/conservative Democrat or a centrist/liberal Republican as VP. Someone like Sinema, Shaheen, Collins, Murkowski, Tester, Jenniffer González-Colón, or others that have a solid history of bipartisan work and desire.

To me, the youth turn out vote being necessary for Biden isn't based in reality.  All he has to do is turn out African-Americans and moderates in the Midwest that stayed home last time.  If he does that, he wins.  We keep forgetting how few actual votes Trump won the election by (70,000 total over three states).  He won Michigan by 10,000 for goodness sake.  That's not a hard number to flip.  And if you take the premise that primary voters are general election voters, which they almost always are, then Biden is already turning out those two constituencies at a far higher rate than Hillary did four years ago.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

Just now, bigbird said:

The worst is when you have a dollar for a drink at a vending machine and you see its $1.25

Thank goodness a bunch of em take cards now, because I almost never carry cash.

[bigbird 60,580]

Just now, Brad_ATX said:

To me, the youth turn out vote being necessary for Biden isn't based in reality.  All he has to do is turn out African-Americans and moderates in the Midwest that stayed home last time.  If he does that, he wins.  We keep forgetting how few actual votes Trump won the election by (70,000 total over three states).  He won Michigan by 10,000 for goodness sake.  That's not a hard number to flip.  And if you take the premise that primary voters are general election voters, which they almost always are, then Biden is already turning out those two constituencies at a far higher rate than Hillary did four years ago.

Absolutely correct. Between enthusiasm, attacks, reports, and rumors, I think there will be a lot more ebb and flow to this cycle than others previously.

[augolf1716 21,305]

On 3/13/2020 at 1:24 AM, Brad_ATX said:

I'm on a diet, so a buck it is.

Now Eddie Murphy was great in this

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

29 minutes ago, augolf1716 said:

Now Eddie Murphy was great in this

It's my favorite Christmas movie

[AUDub 11,184]

On 3/13/2020 at 12:31 AM, bigbird said:

The worst is when you have a dollar for a drink at a vending machine and you see its $1.25

I was going an install at the VA in Nashville these past few days. Drink machines wanted 1.70, go figure. 

[augolf1716 21,305]

4 minutes ago, AUDub said:

I was going an install at the VA in Nashville these past few days. Drink machines wanted 1.70, go figure. 

Weird amount to come up with

[bigbird 60,580]

8 minutes ago, AUDub said:

I was going an install at the VA in Nashville these past few days. Drink machines wanted 1.70, go figure.