Now a coin flip

[SocialCircle 570]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/donald-trump-joe-biden-presidential-election-now-coin-flip-2109003/amp/
 

 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

That's the betting market.  A little different animal than predictive analysis by Nate Silver which has the race 69/31 in favor of Biden to win.

Remember that the betting market moves based on who people think will win.  It's not different than a football line in that respect.  Well over half the country thinks Trump will win despite current polling showing him trailing.  Probably a lot of Democrats and Centrists who are still skittish based off of 2016.

[SocialCircle 570]

43 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

That's the betting market.  A little different animal than predictive analysis by Nate Silver which has the race 69/31 in favor of Biden to win.

Remember that the betting market moves based on who people think will win.  It's not different than a football line in that respect.  Well over half the country thinks Trump will win despite current polling showing him trailing.  Probably a lot of Democrats and Centrists who are still skittish based off of 2016.

I think the Republican convention combined with the D not saying a word about the rioters and looters at their convention really swung some momentum Trump’s way. I think the Republican convention reached some black voters and some suburban women as well. Now in politics momentum can swing back and forth many times between now and the election. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

35 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

I think the Republican convention combined with the D not saying a word about the rioters and looters at their convention really swung some momentum Trump’s way. I think the Republican convention reached some black voters and some suburban women as well. Now in politics momentum can swing back and forth many times between now and the election. 

I'm interested to see the full post convention polling over the next few days.  The key thing to remember is that according to recent interviews and polls, around 92% of the voting public has already made up their mind.  If that holds, there's not much either candidate can do to gain or lose ground.

[SocialCircle 570]

50 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

I'm interested to see the full post convention polling over the next few days.  The key thing to remember is that according to recent interviews and polls, around 92% of the voting public has already made up their mind.  If that holds, there's not much either candidate can do to gain or lose ground.

Minds change all the time. All kinds of events can change lots of minds. 

[TitanTiger 20,498]

Just now, SocialCircle said:

Minds change all the time. All kinds of events can change lots of minds. 

I think the point he's making is that in past elections, a higher percentage of those surveyed indicated they either hadn't decided, or if they chose a candidate, indicated that their choice wasn't "solid" yet than are saying that now.

[SocialCircle 570]

4 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

I think the point he's making is that in past elections, a higher percentage of those surveyed indicated they either hadn't decided, or if they chose a candidate, indicated that their choice wasn't "solid" yet than are saying that now.

I understand that point. My point is I think there are many significant events that could possibly change the minds of those so called decideds. 

[TitanTiger 20,498]

6 hours ago, SocialCircle said:

I understand that point. My point is I think there are many significant events that could possibly change the minds of those so called decideds. 

I’m mean, sure - anything’s possible. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

[DKW 86 7,426]

I would ask that anyone wait until about 2 weeks after any convention before look at polling.
Convention Bounces always happen.
Convention Bounces always go away.

[SocialCircle 570]

1 hour ago, DKW 86 said:

I would ask that anyone wait until about 2 weeks after any convention before look at polling.
Convention Bounces always happen.
Convention Bounces always go away.

False. Biden got no bump out of his convention. I heard Romney didn’t and there was another instance and I think it was Humphrey. 

[DKW 86 7,426]

5 hours ago, SocialCircle said:

False. Biden got no bump out of his convention. I heard Romney didn’t and there was another instance and I think it was Humphrey. 

Well, they may have gotten small to negligible. The point was wait two weeks and look at the numbers. Far more stable.

[SocialCircle 570]

5 minutes ago, DKW 86 said:

Well, they may have gotten small to negligible. The popint was wait two weeks and look at the numbers. Far more stable.

I actually agree with you, but it flies in the face of 92% are absolutely decided.....which I don't believe, because some people will change their minds that think they are decided today. It could be a big number depending on what events unfold between now and the election. 

[TitanTiger 20,498]

1 hour ago, SocialCircle said:

I actually agree with you, but it flies in the face of 92% are absolutely decided.....which I don't believe, because some people will change their minds that think they are decided today. It could be a big number depending on what events unfold between now and the election. 

This sounds less like objective reasoning based on known facts and more like hoping.

[SocialCircle 570]

2 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

This sounds less like objective reasoning based on known facts and more like hoping.

Brilliant! Thanks for pointing out future events aren’t known facts. 

[TitanTiger 20,498]

1 hour ago, SocialCircle said:

Brilliant! Thanks for pointing out future events aren’t known facts. 

What I'm saying is, you literally have nothing factual to even hint at such a thing.  Generally people can point to some findings in polling, some of the lesser looked at trends, some inkling that might give a reasonable person cause to make a prediction like that.  

We all get that predictions on future events aren't known facts, genius.  And of course that's not what I said anyway.  I said "objective reasoning based on known facts."  In other words, looking at what we have now and making reasonable inferences from there.  

In other words, you're just pulling a desired outcome from your ass.

[wdefromtx 3,159]

1 hour ago, SocialCircle said:

Brilliant! Thanks for pointing out future events aren’t known facts. 

What were the betting odds this time in 2016? I need that information before I go throw down some cash. LMAO

[SocialCircle 570]

6 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

What I'm saying is, you literally have nothing factual to even hint at such a thing.  Generally people can point to some findings in polling, some of the lesser looked at trends, some inkling that might give a reasonable person cause to make a prediction like that.  

We all get that predictions on future events aren't known facts, genius.  And of course that's not what I said anyway.  I said "objective reasoning based on known facts."  In other words, looking at what we have now and making reasonable inferences from there.  

In other words, you're just pulling a desired outcome from your ass.

I haven't pulled any outcome out of anything.  I think history indicates there have been plenty of events after Sept. 1st and prior to a presidential election that changed some minds.  I'm not even suggesting all minds will even be changed in one direction or another.  I'm just suggesting that people who say they are decided today will likely change their mind prior to early November and it will be based on events from today until then. Up until recently I believed Biden was going to win because of the pandemic.  Now....as of today I think it is indeed a coin flip.

[TitanTiger 20,498]

7 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

I haven't pulled any outcome out of anything.  I think history indicates there have been plenty of events after Sept. 1st and prior to a presidential election that changed some minds.  I'm not even suggesting all minds will even be changed in one direction or another.  I'm just suggesting that people who say they are decided today will likely change their mind prior to early November and it will be based on events from today until then. Up until recently I believed Biden was going to win because of the pandemic.  Now....as of today I think it is indeed a coin flip.

Based on nothing.

[SocialCircle 570]

9 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Based on nothing.

What is based on nothing?

[McLoofus 35,182]

17 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

I'm interested to see the full post convention polling over the next few days.  The key thing to remember is that according to recent interviews and polls, around 92% of the voting public has already made up their mind.  If that holds, there's not much either candidate can do to gain or lose ground.

Without having giving it any prior thought, I'd have to guess that percentage tends to be higher and less volatile when an incumbent is involved. 

19 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

In other words, you're just pulling a desired outcome from your ass.

It's a coin flip. Polling, history and logic tell us that it's very unlikely he'll pull a desired outcome from his ass, but you never know what can happen. So basically it's 50/50 that he'll pull a desired outcome from his ass.

18 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

Probably a lot of Democrats and Centrists who are still skittish based off of 2016.

Flickers of optimism and jokes aside, that would be me. Not proud to admit it but I'm shook and I'll stay shook til that clown is officially out of the White House. 

[homersapien 11,385]

22 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

I haven't pulled any outcome out of anything.  I think history indicates there have been plenty of events after Sept. 1st and prior to a presidential election that changed some minds.  I'm not even suggesting all minds will even be changed in one direction or another.  I'm just suggesting that people who say they are decided today will likely change their mind prior to early November and it will be based on events from today until then. Up until recently I believed Biden was going to win because of the pandemic.  Now....as of today I think it is indeed a coin flip.

We've certainly got time between now and the election for yet another surge in covid-19 infections since the pandemic is still with us.

And we've certainly got time between now and the election for a lot more violence - including violence instigated or made worse by the right wing "militias" that Trump clearly supports.

And we've got time between now and the election for Trump to continue to not speak to the valid grievances black people have over the way they are often treated by the police - including new instances from now until the election.

And we've got time between now and the election for the economic situation of millions of people to get even worse. 

Bottom line, there's no reason to think things are going to suddenly get better in the next couple of months on Trump's watch.

[SocialCircle 570]

3 minutes ago, homersapien said:

We've certainly got time between now and the election for yet another surge in covid-19 infections since the pandemic is still with us.

And we've certainly got time between now and the election for a lot more violence - including violence instigated or made worse by the right wing "militias" that Trump clearly supports.

And we've got time between now and the election for Trump to continue to not speak to the valid grievances black people have over the way they are often treated by the police - including probable new instances.

And we've got time between now and the election for the economic situation of millions of people to get even worse. 

Bottom line, there's no reason to think things are going to suddenly get better in the next couple of months on Trump's watch.

So you agree with me it appears.  There are some events that could make "decideds" actually change their minds.  

[homersapien 11,385]

13 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

So you agree with me it appears.  There are some events that could make "decideds" actually change their minds.  

No, I have no reason to think the outcome of the election is currently a "coin flip".

And it's hard for me to imagine things suddenly improving to the point where Biden's lead is reversed.  Just the opposite. 

How about postulating such an improvement?  Pandemic?  Racial strife/violence? Economy?

Like Titan said, anything can happen.  Jesus might return. (But I don't think that works in Trump's favor either.)

[homersapien 11,385]

13 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Flickers of optimism and jokes aside, that would be me. Not proud to admit it but I'm shook and I'll stay shook til that clown is officially out of the White House. 

I am so dispirited by the numbers of people that still support Trump - including a few in my family - that I have reached the point of almost not caring.

If the country is so ******* inept and clueless to allow such a thing, then it serves us right. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

1 minute ago, homersapien said:

Bottom line, there's no reason to think things are going to suddenly get better in the next couple of months on Trump's watch.

Things are obviously only going to get worse, but you gotta give the orangutan one thing, he's very good at convincing these people to act against their own best interests. The worse he makes it, the more they believe he's the one to fix it. Damnedest thing. And while things won't get better, we do have to watch out for events that precipitate irrational choices on a large scale. "Chaos is a ladder" and all that. All that "dark uniforms on a plane" and "people in the shadows" stuff? He's preparing them for something.