Now a coin flip

[bigbird 60,580]

5 hours ago, AUDub said:

Haven't you heard of Br'er Rabbit?

There's a reason Disney put it in the vault and won't ever release it to video, dvd, or disney+.

When asked recently why, Bob Iger confirmed, "It may contain outdated cultural depictions"

[AUDub 11,182]

13 minutes ago, bigbird said:

There's a reason Disney put it in the vault and won't ever release it to video, dvd, or disney+.

When asked recently why, Bob Iger confirmed, "It may contain outdated cultural depictions"

Disney didn't put Uncle Remus' Tales in the vault, they put Song of the South in there, and for good reason. Uncle Remus' Tales predates Disney's spin, by a lot.

[wdefromtx 3,159]

1 hour ago, homersapien said:

If that's the case, then you are obviously a self-identified, s***-posting troll, which is why I generally ignore you.

 

LMAO, you are just an old curmudgeon that can't take a joke. For that I'll give you a pass for using a term that often now has a racial connotation. You should probably put it to rest, considering the era we are in now.   

[wdefromtx 3,159]

1 hour ago, TitanTiger said:

I know it can be used as a slur, and as such - to avoid confusion and unintended offense - I no longer use the term myself.  But there is a historical (and quite vividly apt) use of the term that predates any racial connotations, which I believe is what homer was doing here.  I actually hate that it's been tainted the way it has because it's one of the best descriptions for making a problem monumentally worse by continuing to wrestle with it ever conceived.

I know the term and where it came from. I doubt in this instance anyone was seriously offended and I agree with you terms like this should probably be put to rest to avoid confusion.

[AURex 2,031]

Back to the OP (and I haven't read the entire thread), but if it's a coin flip, Trump will steal the coin and proclaim victory. Just sayin'.

 

[wdefromtx 3,159]

6 hours ago, McLoofus said:

No reason.

My mom went to the school FNL is based on and my grandfather was a principal at Permian for decades. I remember every year he’d come to DFW and we’d go to Texas Stadium to watch them in the state playoffs. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

14 minutes ago, wdefromtx said:

My mom went to the school FNL is based on and my grandfather was a principal at Permian for decades. I remember every year he’d come to DFW and we’d go to Texas Stadium to watch them in the state playoffs. 

One of the best shows ever. Movie was good, too. Very cool that you have ties.

[TitanTiger 20,510]

9 hours ago, McLoofus said:

One of the best shows ever. 

Agreed.  We just recently rewatched it for the first time since the original airing - this time with our teenagers.  They loved it too.

[wdefromtx 3,159]

10 hours ago, McLoofus said:

One of the best shows ever. Movie was good, too. Very cool that you have ties.

I will have to say, having lived in Odessa for a short period of time and visiting often. It is the armpit of Texas!! lol 

[McLoofus 35,182]

11 minutes ago, wdefromtx said:

I will have to say, having lived in Odessa for a short period of time and visiting often. It is the armpit of Texas!! lol 

Hah! I hope there's good BBQ and tamales at least.

[wdefromtx 3,159]

1 hour ago, McLoofus said:

Hah! I hope there's good BBQ and tamales at least.

Tamales yes, BBQ...meh, not so much. It may have gotten better since then because of the resurgence in oil. Since my grandparents have passed away I rarely go out there.

[McLoofus 35,182]

1 minute ago, wdefromtx said:

Tamales yes, BBQ...meh, not so much. It may have gotten better since then because of the resurgence in oil. Since my grandparents have passed away I rarely go out there.

Now that I know that about the BBQ, I'm less butthurt over not getting to go see our client at my last job that was near Odessa. Permian Regional, actually. And yes, I'm serious. I really wanted to go on that trip.

[wdefromtx 3,159]

13 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Now that I know that about the BBQ, I'm less butthurt over not getting to go see our client at my last job that was near Odessa. Permian Regional, actually. And yes, I'm serious. I really wanted to go on that trip.

In Andrews? You didn't miss much. Generally if you look at a map of Texas and take the triangle between DFW to San Antonio to Houston. Pretty much anywhere in there you will find great BBQ. I realize there are places outside of that, but you can't go wrong there. LOL

[McLoofus 35,182]

Just now, wdefromtx said:

In Andrews? You didn't miss much. Generally if you look at a map of Texas and take the triangle between DFW to San Antonio to Houston. Pretty much anywhere in there you will find great BBQ. I realize there are places outside of that, but you can't go wrong there. LOL

Yeah, I have a thing for small nowhere towns that I would never go to if not for work. But I also love flying in and out of whatever the nearest big city is, lol. We had several clients in Missouri and I LOVED flying in and out of KC. I ate BBQ at 4 different places in 48 hrs once. Anyway, I'm guessing for Andrews I would've flown in and out of El Paso, in which case I would have eaten 4 different Mexican meals in 48 hrs.

The only time I ate BBQ in Texas was in Fort Worth and it was great. Railhead. Also had fajitas and margaritas at Joe T. Garcia's. Good trip. 

Dying to get to Austin one day to eat at some of the places around there. And Houston, although I want to do a few days in Houston trying more than just BBQ and Mexican/Tex-Mex. I hear it's one of the most truly international food scenes in the country. I know there's a larger Vietnamese population there post-Katrina. 

[wdefromtx 3,159]

8 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Yeah, I have a thing for small nowhere towns that I would never go to if not for work. But I also love flying in and out of whatever the nearest big city is, lol. We had several clients in Missouri and I LOVED flying in and out of KC. I ate BBQ at 4 different places in 48 hrs once. Anyway, I'm guessing for Andrews I would've flown in and out of El Paso, in which case I would have eaten 4 different Mexican meals in 48 hrs.

The only time I ate BBQ in Texas was in Fort Worth and it was great. Railhead. Also had fajitas and margaritas at Joe T. Garcia's. Good trip. 

Dying to get to Austin one day to eat at some of the places around there. And Houston, although I want to do a few days in Houston trying more than just BBQ and Mexican/Tex-Mex. I hear it's one of the most truly international food scenes in the country. I know there's a larger Vietnamese population there post-Katrina. 

Depending on what airline you might have flown into Midland-Odessa. 
 

I used to go to the Railhead every Saturday with my dad as a kid. It actually started out as a small drive thru beer barn place that served BBQ. Had maybe 10 tables inside. Then they moved to the corner of Vickery and Montgomery. I’ve never been a big fan of Joe T’s. Some people are. My two go to places in FTW for Tex-Mex is El Paseo or the Original. 
 

Houston is rich in international food. Thai, Vietnamese , Indian, Korean, etc. People outside of Houston don’t realize how diverse the area is. Once a coworker and I were trying to find a Chinese Buffet and ended up at a Chinese restaurant and nothing was in English. I’m still not sure what I ate that day. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

6 minutes ago, wdefromtx said:

I used to go to the Railhead every Saturday with my dad as a kid. It actually started out as a small drive thru beer barn place that served BBQ. Had maybe 10 tables inside.

That's really cool. I had no idea.

Quote

Houston is rich in international food. Thai, Vietnamese , Indian, Korean, etc. People outside of Houston don’t realize how diverse the area is. Once a coworker and I were trying to find a Chinese Buffet and ended up at a Chinese restaurant and nothing was in English. I’m still not sure what I ate that day. 

Hah! I feel like Houston and Atlanta are similar in that way. Big, sprawling metros with nothing really on the surface to make them stand out but with really unique and diverse culture under the surface, including serious ethnic/international diversity. Buford Highway in Atlanta is heaven if you're an adventurous eater. I miss that as much as anything else in Atlanta.

[SocialCircle 570]

On 9/2/2020 at 6:37 PM, Brad_ATX said:

Three new polls out today.  All have Biden up 7 or 8 nationally.  This would suggest that Trump didn't get the post convention bounce he was hoping for.

https://www.grinnell.edu/news/joe-biden-leads-donald-trump-latest-grinnell-college-national-poll

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/no-bounce-in-support-for-trump-as-americans-see-pandemic-not-crime-as-top-issue-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN25T1I3

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/02/biden-leads-trump-narrower-7-points-post-conventions-suffolk-poll/3446536001/ 

Here is another poll to consider that came out today. 

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_sep04

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

Good analysis on post convention polling from 538 (Nate Silver's project).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-may-have-gotten-a-convention-bounce-but-its-very-slight-and-may-already-be-fading/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-biden-gets-good-polls-in-arizona-and-wisconsin-and-a-bad-one-in-pennsylvania/

[SocialCircle 570]

On 9/5/2020 at 9:56 AM, Brad_ATX said:

Good analysis on post convention polling from 538 (Nate Silver's project).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-may-have-gotten-a-convention-bounce-but-its-very-slight-and-may-already-be-fading/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-biden-gets-good-polls-in-arizona-and-wisconsin-and-a-bad-one-in-pennsylvania/

Trump has made solid gains since the convention with the betting public. 
 

https://bookies.com/news/presidential-election-odds-daily-tracker

This is combined with high approval ratings.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_sep04
 

[TitanTiger 20,510]

Betting odds are irrelevant.  Posting them isn't bolstering your position.  The approval ratings are relevant, but Rasmussen is an outlier

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

[SocialCircle 570]

10 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

Betting odds are irrelevant.  Posting them isn't bolstering your position.  The approval ratings are relevant, but Rasmussen is an outlier

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

The only thing “relevant” is the actually result of the election. The betting odds are just as relevant as any poll. The overall point though and the consensus if you consider everything it that Trump is in better shape now than before the conventions as it relates to the upcoming election.

[TitanTiger 20,510]

5 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

The only thing “relevant” is the actually result of the election. The betting odds are just as relevant as any poll. 

This has already been explained to you.  Betting odds have a very different goal than polling data.  Polling data actually attempts to accurately assess how the vote would break down as of right now (or the time of the poll).  It's an attempt at a snapshot (or in the case of a tracking poll, a view of a trend) of how the election would go if it were held today.  

Betting odds are designed for one purpose:  to generate a roughly even number of bets on each side of a proposition.  And if they do it right, they nudge the odds just enough to get slightly more money put on the eventual loser.  That way no matter what happens, the betting house doesn't get hammered with payouts and usually they make money on the proposition in question.  They are not attempting to give you an accurate picture of the vote.

There's nothing wrong with being hopeful that a certain candidate will eventually pull out the win, even if current data doesn't look that way for him.  But betting odds are a dumb way to get there.  Stop it.

 

 

[SocialCircle 570]

48 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

This has already been explained to you.  Betting odds have a very different goal than polling data.  Polling data actually attempts to accurately assess how the vote would break down as of right now (or the time of the poll).  It's an attempt at a snapshot (or in the case of a tracking poll, a view of a trend) of how the election would go if it were held today.  

Betting odds are designed for one purpose:  to generate a roughly even number of bets on each side of a proposition.  And if they do it right, they nudge the odds just enough to get slightly more money put on the eventual loser.  That way no matter what happens, the betting house doesn't get hammered with payouts and usually they make money on the proposition in question.  They are not attempting to give you an accurate picture of the vote.

There's nothing wrong with being hopeful that a certain candidate will eventually pull out the win, even if current data doesn't look that way for him.  But betting odds are a dumb way to get there.  Stop it.

 

 

I know how the betting odds move. I think they are as good of a measure as any as it relates to the election. The polls and the approval ratings and the betting odds are all better now for Trump than prior to the conventions. There is momentum going his way. I predict the pandemic will determine this election. If there is a big spike between now and Nov. I except Biden to win. If there isn’t, I expect Trump to win. The key state is PA. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

3 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

I know how the betting odds move. I think they are as good of a measure as any as it relates to the election. The polls and the approval ratings and the betting odds are all better now for Trump than prior to the conventions. There is momentum going his way. I predict the pandemic will determine this election. If there is a big spike between now and Nov. I except Biden to win. If there isn’t, I expect Trump to win. The key state is PA. 

No, the polls are not better for Trump.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/02/joe-biden-post-dnc-polls-408087

And if you're taking betting odds into account, then I can't take you seriously.  By your logic, they mean just as much.  But understand that in horse racing (for example), the favorite loses 65% of the time, meaning the betting public doesn't know a thing.  Titan is right on this one.  All the betting odds are is a reflection of money.  You also have no idea who is betting, so that can skew numbers.  If 70% of the betting public are voting for Trump, then it stands to reason that they would also place money on him.

Meanwhile polling actually identifies party affiliation.  You can drill down to the scientific method that each poll uses and replicate if you wanted.

[homersapien 11,440]

2 hours ago, SocialCircle said:

The only thing “relevant” is the actually result of the election. The betting odds are just as relevant as any poll. The overall point though and the consensus if you consider everything it that Trump is in better shape now than before the conventions as it relates to the upcoming election.

Doesn't understand and/or accept the science of polling. ^