Now a coin flip

[SocialCircle 570]

1 hour ago, Brad_ATX said:

No, the polls are not better for Trump.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/02/joe-biden-post-dnc-polls-408087

And if you're taking betting odds into account, then I can't take you seriously.  By your logic, they mean just as much.  But understand that in horse racing (for example), the favorite loses 65% of the time, meaning the betting public doesn't know a thing.  Titan is right on this one.  All the betting odds are is a reflection of money.  You also have no idea who is betting, so that can skew numbers.  If 70% of the betting public are voting for Trump, then it stands to reason that they would also place money on him.

Meanwhile polling actually identifies party affiliation.  You can drill down to the scientific method that each poll uses and replicate if you wanted.

I agree with Bill Bennett in that you can tell more by watching what campaigns are doing than anything else. It is clear both campaigns believe PA is vital to them. It is also clear the Biden campaign felt the violence was really starting to hurt them with voters. It is also clear both campaigns believe the pandemic is a drag on Trump. Too many people lie to pollsters nowadays. The way the questions are asked are too many times used to get the desired result. I predict whoever goes into Election Day favored by the betting public will win the election. 

[TitanTiger 20,510]

5 hours ago, SocialCircle said:

I know how the betting odds move.

^^^This...

5 hours ago, SocialCircle said:

I think they are as good of a measure as any as it relates to the election.

...Negates this^^^

 

5 hours ago, SocialCircle said:

The polls and the approval ratings and the betting odds are all better now for Trump than prior to the conventions. There is momentum going his way. I predict the pandemic will determine this election. If there is a big spike between now and Nov. I except Biden to win. If there isn’t, I expect Trump to win. The key state is PA. 

You're welcome to believe whatever you want, but if your doing it based on betting odds, you're a moron.

[SocialCircle 570]

26 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

^^^This...

...Negates this^^^

 

You're welcome to believe whatever you want, but if your doing it based on betting odds, you're a moron.

Like I said I base it mostly on what both campaigns are doing. But many polls are no better than the betting odds in today’s world.

[TitanTiger 20,510]

Just now, SocialCircle said:

Like I said I base it mostly on what both campaigns are doing. But many polls are no better than the betting odds in today’s world.

[TexasTiger 13,006]

6 hours ago, SocialCircle said:

I agree with Bill Bennett in that you can tell more by watching what campaigns are doing than anything else. It is clear both campaigns believe PA is vital to them. It is also clear the Biden campaign felt the violence was really starting to hurt them with voters. It is also clear both campaigns believe the pandemic is a drag on Trump. Too many people lie to pollsters nowadays. The way the questions are asked are too many times used to get the desired result. I predict whoever goes into Election Day favored by the betting public will win the election. 

It’s absolutely vital to Trump. He has no margin for error.

[TitanTiger 20,510]

On 9/7/2020 at 9:20 AM, SocialCircle said:

The key state is PA. 

Trump's got a lot of ground to make up then.

NBC/Marist poll in PA has Biden up 53-44% among likely voters.  Key stats:

"Among suburban likely voters, Biden leads Trump by nearly 20 points, 58 percent to 39 percent. That's a significant flip from 2016, when Trump won suburban voters in the state by about 8 points."

and

"The candidates are tied among white voters — a group Trump won by double digits in 2016 in Pennsylvania — at 49 percent. And Biden leads among nonwhite likely voters, at 75 percent to just 19 percent for Trump."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-biden-leads-9-pennsylvania-n1239573

[McLoofus 35,182]

4 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

"The candidates are tied among white voters — a group Trump won by double digits in 2016 in Pennsylvania — at 49 percent. And Biden leads among nonwhite likely voters, at 75 percent to just 19 percent for Trump."

That's a really striking difference. 

[SocialCircle 570]

26 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Trump's got a lot of ground to make up then.

NBC/Marist poll in PA has Biden up 53-44% among likely voters.  Key stats:

"Among suburban likely voters, Biden leads Trump by nearly 20 points, 58 percent to 39 percent. That's a significant flip from 2016, when Trump won suburban voters in the state by about 8 points."

and

"The candidates are tied among white voters — a group Trump won by double digits in 2016 in Pennsylvania — at 49 percent. And Biden leads among nonwhite likely voters, at 75 percent to just 19 percent for Trump."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-biden-leads-9-pennsylvania-n1239573

PA will be very hard for Trump to win. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

32 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

PA will be very hard for Trump to win. 

He just lost suburban voters everywhere with the Woodward release.

[SocialCircle 570]

3 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

He just lost suburban voters everywhere with the Woodward release.

Time will tell. I expect many events to occur between now and the election that will sway some voters. 

[wdefromtx 3,159]

4 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

He just lost suburban voters everywhere with the Woodward release.

You underestimate the ability of some to shrug off stuff like this. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

Just now, wdefromtx said:

You underestimate the ability of some to shrug off stuff like this. 

The hardcores for sure won't care.  The suburban middle of the road vote will care a ton.  Pandemic is their #1 issue.

[SocialCircle 570]

14 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

The hardcores for sure won't care.  The suburban middle of the road vote will care a ton.  Pandemic is their #1 issue.

So if a vaccine is available prior to Nov. 3rd they vote Trump?  Again...I expect several things to happen between now and the election. Also, I’m not sure our President trying to prevent a panic that might cause food shortages, etc...something that will cause the surburban middle to not vote for Trump. Especially since it has been clear that has been his strategy as it relates to this pandemic from day one. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

14 hours ago, wdefromtx said:

You underestimate the ability of some to shrug off stuff like this. 

It's astounding. It really is.

I keep thinking about the Kaepernick thing. How many people act like absolute buffoons over athletes kneeling for a song, but who just completely shrug off- exactly- trump's comments about John McCain and our fallen soldiers.

This isn't going to change a thing for them.They'll just accept this "panic" line (while being more than happy to panic about some windows getting broken in Portland and Minneapolis... while making excuses for the 17 yr old kid who brought an AR to a bonfire and made people dead with it... while........). 

I hope @Brad_ATX is right. I have to wonder who is still out there ready to have their mind changed. But if they exist and this pushes them to making the right choice, cool. 

[TitanTiger 20,510]

16 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

Also, I’m not sure our President trying to prevent a panic that might cause food shortages, etc...something that will cause the surburban middle to not vote for Trump. Especially since it has been clear that has been his strategy as it relates to this pandemic from day one. 

Bull****.  It's clear from the tapes that we weren't in a situation where Trump truly believed the rosiest, most optimistic scenarios and takes on this virus and was simply mistaken or even just delusional.  What's clear is that he knew, believed and understood just how much more serious and deadly this virus was but then went out a flat out lied to our faces.  On February 7th he was telling Woodward how deadly and serious this was and by the 28th of the same month he was standing in front of an adoring crowd in SC telling them this was an election year hoax.

That's not strategy borne of concern for the American people, it's a cynical choice to lie, minimize, and gaslight for his own re-election prospects - because as we've been shown over and over and over, Trump cares about Trump, period.  The End.

Someone said that when someone tells you who they are, believe them.  It's time for Trump supporters to come to grips with this simple truth.  Trump has shown you the kind of terrible, self-centered, doesn't-give-a-s***-about-you person he is.  Believe him.  

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

53 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

So if a vaccine is available prior to Nov. 3rd they vote Trump?  Again...I expect several things to happen between now and the election. Also, I’m not sure our President trying to prevent a panic that might cause food shortages, etc...something that will cause the surburban middle to not vote for Trump. Especially since it has been clear that has been his strategy as it relates to this pandemic from day one. 

A vaccine being ready doesn't undo 6 months of lying to you.  And even if he thought he was trying to stop panic, there's an underlying issue there.  By saying that, he's saying you, me, and the rest of the country can't handle the truth.  Great leaders are straight with their country.  Churchill isn't revered because he fed BS to the English.  He told them that the war would be hard and long, but that they would persevere and overcome.

All Trump had to do was be honest with folks from the outset.  If you really think this issue is going away, you've lost your mind.  Biden and every smart Democrat on Earth will play the tapes over and over.

And here's the other thing.  We still don't know what else Woodward has on tape.  Lost in the pandemic admission yesterday was the fact that Trump also completely dismissed the idea Black concerns regarding social justice issues.  And again, this is recorded.

[SocialCircle 570]

41 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Bull****.  It's clear from the tapes that we weren't in a situation where Trump truly believed the rosiest, most optimistic scenarios and takes on this virus and was simply mistaken or even just delusional.  What's clear is that he knew, believed and understood just how much more serious and deadly this virus was but then went out a flat out lied to our faces.  On February 7th he was telling Woodward how deadly and serious this was and by the 28th of the same month he was standing in front of an adoring crowd in SC telling them this was an election year hoax.

That's not strategy borne of concern for the American people, it's a cynical choice to lie, minimize, and gaslight for his own re-election prospects - because as we've been shown over and over and over, Trump cares about Trump, period.  The End.

Someone said that when someone tells you who they are, believe them.  It's time for Trump supporters to come to grips with this simple truth.  Trump has shown you the kind of terrible, self-centered, doesn't-give-a-s***-about-you person he is.  Believe him.  

No your post is BS. Trump never called this virus an election year hoax. I don’t agree with your analysis as to why he “downplayed” it either. Period.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

41 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Bull****.  It's clear from the tapes that we weren't in a situation where Trump truly believed the rosiest, most optimistic scenarios and takes on this virus and was simply mistaken or even just delusional.  What's clear is that he knew, believed and understood just how much more serious and deadly this virus was but then went out a flat out lied to our faces.  On February 7th he was telling Woodward how deadly and serious this was and by the 28th of the same month he was standing in front of an adoring crowd in SC telling them this was an election year hoax.

That's not strategy borne of concern for the American people, it's a cynical choice to lie, minimize, and gaslight for his own re-election prospects - because as we've been shown over and over and over, Trump cares about Trump, period.  The End.

Someone said that when someone tells you who they are, believe them.  It's time for Trump supporters to come to grips with this simple truth.  Trump has shown you the kind of terrible, self-centered, doesn't-give-a-s***-about-you person he is.  Believe him.  

Here's the other thing.  When has Trump ever been concerned with causing a panic before?

He was fine with causing a panic when "caravans of migrants" were supposedly coming to invade America.

He was fine with causing a panic about people taking over the suburbs.

I think McCaskell has it right.  When Trump said "I didn't want to cause a panic", he's not talking about the American people.  He's talking about the stock market. 

[SocialCircle 570]

5 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

A vaccine being ready doesn't undo 6 months of lying to you.  And even if he thought he was trying to stop panic, there's an underlying issue there.  By saying that, he's saying you, me, and the rest of the country can't handle the truth.  Great leaders are straight with their country.  Churchill isn't revered because he fed BS to the English.  He told them that the war would be hard and long, but that they would persevere and overcome.

All Trump had to do was be honest with folks from the outset.  If you really think this issue is going away, you've lost your mind.  Biden and every smart Democrat on Earth will play the tapes over and over.

And here's the other thing.  We still don't know what else Woodward has on tape.  Lost in the pandemic admission yesterday was the fact that Trump also completely dismissed the idea Black concerns regarding social justice issues.  And again, this is recorded.

FDR downplayed it by saying all we have to fear is fear itself. And it is recorded. Trump has publicly said he considers himself our national cheerleader. I don’t think this will be what many base their vote on. And if a vaccine comes out I believe this will be forgotten and will help Trump as it relates to the election. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

3 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

A vaccine being ready doesn't undo 6 months of lying to you.

I'm taking this out of context and making a different point, and I don't expect you to ride with me here, but trump supporters really need to think about the second part of that sentence when evaluating any announcement of the first.

Imagine trump announcing a vaccine in, say, late October, and then just believing that there in fact exists a safe, reliably-tested vaccine. Will you ask for any details? Like, is it a vaccine that will actually get manufactured and distributed to everyone who needs it at a cost that they can afford (read: free)? What will be your assurances? Do you really want to vote on that?

That's the thing about all the lying, folks. It's not just a thing that he has done a lot of. It's what he is.

 

 

[TitanTiger 20,510]

7 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

No your post is BS. Trump never called this virus an election year hoax. I don’t agree with your analysis as to why he “downplayed” it either. Period.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/28/trump-south-carolina-rally-coronavirus-118269

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-calls-coronavirus-democrats-new-hoax-n1145721

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/trump-says-the-coronavirus-is-the-democrats-new-hoax.html

Even if you try to squint and dismiss this as a misinterpretation, I could produce volumes of other quotes of him downplaying, minimizing, lying, making insanely inaccurate predictions, saying it's no worse than the flu and so on.  You can play this idiotic game where you try to harp on some meaningless nuance to dismiss the larger point, but no one's buying.

 

[Mikey 16,723]

19 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

He just lost suburban voters everywhere with the Woodward release.

Ho hum, yet another hit piece. What's different about this? Russia, Ukraine, on and on. All I took away from yesterday's news was Bungling Biden saying Trump cost 200,000 American lives. As though Biden, who has not had one timely suggestion saying what he'd have done differently could have done as well as Trump.  Biden called the ban travel to/from China xenophobic, which means he wouldn't have done anything back then. Hypocrite much, Joe?

[TitanTiger 20,510]

17 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

FDR downplayed it by saying all we have to fear is fear itself. And it is recorded. Trump has publicly said he considers himself our national cheerleader. I don’t think this will be what many base their vote on. And if a vaccine comes out I believe this will be forgotten and will help Trump as it relates to the election. 

🙄

He didn't downplay anything.  The American people knew how serious the bombing of Pearl Harbor was.  FDR didn't gaslight and say that the bombing was only minor damage, a mere nick.  He simply said that we would not resign ourselves to fearing the enemy.

Good grief, man, take a beat and think before posting this horse****.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

5 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

FDR downplayed it by saying all we have to fear is fear itself. And it is recorded. Trump has publicly said he considers himself our national cheerleader. I don’t think this will be what many base their vote on. And if a vaccine comes out I believe this will be forgotten and will help Trump as it relates to the election. 

FDR didn't downplay anything.  I still don't understand how you play even a small role in education for being so damn uneducated.  Literally from that same speech just before the fear itself line:

"I am certain that my fellow Americans expect that on my induction into the Presidency I will address them with a candor and a decision which the present situation of our people impel.  This is preeminently the time to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly..  Nor need we shrink from honestly facing conditions in our country today."

And directly after the fear line:

"In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory."

Next paragraph:

"In such a spirit on my part and yours we face our common difficulties.  They concern, thank God, only material things.  Values have shrunken to fantastic levels; taxes have risen; our ability to pay has fallen; government of all kinds is faced by serious curtailment of income; the means of exchange are frozen in the currents of trade; the withered leaves of industrial enterprise lie on every side; farmers find no markets for their produce; the savings of many years in thousands of families are gone."

[TitanTiger 20,510]

5 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Ho hum, yet another hit piece.

A guy has tapes with the President clearly stating that he knows and believes one thing about a global pandemic while he's having daily press conferences blatantly lying and saying almost the total opposite, partly resulting in our country being among the worst in handling the situation and seeing far more infections and deaths than anywhere else, and you just think it's "another hit piece?"

How long do you have to lie to yourself before you have faith this strong in something?  To quote Jesus, “I say to you, not even in Israel have I found such great faith.”