Now a coin flip

[McLoofus 35,182]

8 minutes ago, homersapien said:

I am so dispirited by the numbers of people that still support Trump - including a few in my family - that I have reached the point of almost not caring.

If the country is so ******* inept and clueless to allow such a thing, then it serves us right. 

I won't unload here. But suffice it to say my opinion of what this country really is has changed significantly this year. 

[homersapien 11,386]

A Bounce Won’t Do It. Trump Needs a Post-Convention Vault.

Charlie Cook

September 1, 2020

 

The question on a lot of minds over the next week will be whether President Trump and Joe Biden enjoy the customary 5- or 6-point post-convention bounce.

Gallup polling from 1964 through 1992 showed that party nominees on average got a bounce of 6.2 percent, as Lydia Saad noted four years ago. More recently, the bounces have been somewhat smaller. President Obama, the last incumbent to seek reelection, received a 3-point bounce, as another Gallup analyst, Jeffrey Jones, noted at the time.

In a terrific analysis, The Washington Post’s David Byler suggested that Trump might benefit from his convention but it might not save him—that the climb is pretty steep.

Sadly, we are in another poll desert right now. As of Monday night, the latest national polls completed their last live-telephone interviews by Aug. 15. Most major news organizations poll before either convention is held, then again after; they won’t go into the field until at least a day after the latter convention has concluded. It would be reasonable to guess that pollsters might conduct interviews Friday and over the weekend. Maybe a quick poll could be released before the Sunday political talk shows, but Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday is more realistic.

While the Democrats designed and executed their virtual convention as well as they possibly could, their ticket probably didn’t get much of a bounce. It’s hard to build much on an 8- to 10-point lead, particularly in this period of hyper-partisanship. Each party already entered convention season with a high floor and low ceiling, particularly with three-quarters of voters either loving or loathing Trump to begin with.

Based on the first three nights of the GOP convention, there is little reason to think that Trump got much of a bounce, either. When you are far behind, you have plenty of room to grow, but with so many voters maintaining firmly held views to begin with, there might be little elasticity.

One thing worth noting is that the 6 percent of the 2016 vote cast in support of write-in, third-party, and independent candidates is likely to be much smaller this time. The Libertarian and Green Parties are running far less-known candidates than in 2016, when the Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein were the two major third-party nominees. This time, the Libertarian nominee is Jo Jorgensen, a psychologist who was actually the running mate for Libertarian Party nominee Harry Browne in 1996 (a little-known fact). It’s unlikely that Jorgensen would draw nearly as much as the 3.3 percent that Johnson pulled. The Green Party nominee—Howie Hawkins, a retired UPS freight unloader—is not well-known, either.

Also, whenever non-major-party candidates appear to significantly influence the outcome of a presidential election, fewer voters seem to be willing to cast their votes in that independent direction in the following election.

Four years ago, Hillary Clinton pulled 48.2 percent of the vote to Trump’s 45.93 percent. That margin of just over 2 points was close enough to allow Trump a two-tenths-of-a-percentage-point win in Michigan and seven-tenths in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In that election, there was an intensity in support among Trump’s backers and a great deal of ambivalence among Democrats. In addition to the lack of enthusiasm for Clinton, the Democratic nominee looked like she had the election locked down, decreasing the motivation for Democrats to show up.

But cantankerous independent voters tend to stray from the party that holds the White House. Independents backed Trump by 4 points, 46 to 42 percent, in 2016. Mitt Romney carried independents by 5 points over Obama, 45 to 40 percent, in 2012. Obama won independents over John McCain, 52 to 45 percent, in 2008. John Kerry carried the independent vote by 1 point, 49 to 48 percent, in 2004.

This year, Trump is an incumbent defending a record, and he already fares poorly among independents in the polls. What’s more, he has been preoccupied with cultivating his base and has done little to draw voters outside of his comfort zone.

Every time I walk through the data on this election, it just reinforces my view that while an incumbent in this deep of a political hole might be able to climb out, it would require a focused and disciplined candidate, one who could stay on message and avoid extraneous fights—characteristics that do not seem to describe Trump.

Until the coronavirus pandemic hit, he was behind yet still polled within striking distance. But the public perception of his handling of the greatest crisis facing our country in three-quarters of a century is not favorable in any way. The tailwind he enjoyed from a strong economy is no longer there, either. His approval ratings on handling the economy are now little higher than his disapproval ratings on that issue. Apparently, the shelf life of a good economy that is no longer good is quite short.

Sure, there are uncertainties about the election process in this unique year, but signs point to a very large voter turnout. Both bases are highly motivated—Trump backers and critics alike—and where there is a will to vote, most will find a way. Besides, only a half dozen or so states will really matter.

Maybe Trump could pull this off, but I doubt it. The underlying factors in his upset win four years ago just don’t seem to be in place. Running as an incumbent is very different. A president who has never received a majority job-approval rating in a major national poll and who has seemingly muffed his greatest test? That is a tough challenge to win.

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 28, 2020

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/bounce-wont-do-it-trump-needs-post-convention-vault

[wdefromtx 3,159]

I have seen crazier, this is 2020 so who knows what the heck will happen. 

[SocialCircle 570]

19 minutes ago, homersapien said:

No, I have no reason to think the outcome of the election is currently a "coin flip".

And it's hard for me to imagine things suddenly improving to the point where Biden's lead is reversed.  Just the opposite. 

How about postulating such an improvement?  Pandemic?  Racial strife/violence? Economy?

Like Titan said, anything can happen.  Jesus might return. (But I don't think that works in Trump's favor either.)

Biden has slipped in the polls recently. Events could happen on either side. I mean who dreamed the FBI would find Weiner’s laptop in 2016? I think Trump was a lock until the pandemic hit. Perhaps a vaccine in October would help Trump. Another spike in Covid could hurt him.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

1 hour ago, SocialCircle said:

Biden has slipped in the polls recently. Events could happen on either side. I mean who dreamed the FBI would find Weiner’s laptop in 2016? I think Trump was a lock until the pandemic hit. Perhaps a vaccine in October would help Trump. Another spike in Covid could hurt him.

This is false.  Biden hasn't slipped.  Trump has gained maybe a point or two closing the gap.  But Biden's support has not slipped.  He's steadily above 50%.  Remember, most polling shows 51-44 or something like that, meaning there's about 4-5% of those polled which didn't commit to a candidate.

[Gowebb11 9,328]

1 hour ago, Brad_ATX said:

This is false.  Biden hasn't slipped.  Trump has gained maybe a point or two closing the gap.  But Biden's support has not slipped.  He's steadily above 50%.  Remember, most polling shows 51-44 or something like that, meaning there's about 4-5% of those polled which didn't commit to a candidate.

I think Biden appropriately laid low for a while too. Now he’s starting to be more vocal and visible, and creating more positive talking points on his positions. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

47 minutes ago, Gowebb11 said:

I think Biden appropriately laid low for a while too. Now he’s starting to be more vocal and visible, and creating more positive talking points on his positions. 

The only problem with him laying low is that he may have allowed Trump to define the terms of engagement.  It was 100% COVID, which Trump polls terribly on.  But by staying quiet, Biden has allowed Trump to make "law and order" a larger issue.  Sometimes you gotta keep pressing and force the trailer to come get you.

[McLoofus 35,182]

11 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

The only problem with him laying low is that he may have allowed Trump to define the terms of engagement.  It was 100% COVID, which Trump polls terribly on.  But by staying quiet, Biden has allowed Trump to make "law and order" a larger issue.  Sometimes you gotta keep pressing and force the trailer to come get you.

Yup.

I once thought there was a limit to stupidity and insanity, and yet. Goodness gracious, these people. Hillary was wrong. Deplorable isn't the word. I'm not sure we have the word. The Germans might have the word, but I don't think we do. It genuinely leaves on speechless that so many subscribe to this thinking.

 

[homersapien 11,386]

16 hours ago, SocialCircle said:

Biden has slipped in the polls recently. Events could happen on either side. I mean who dreamed the FBI would find Weiner’s laptop in 2016? I think Trump was a lock until the pandemic hit. Perhaps a vaccine in October would help Trump. Another spike in Covid could hurt him.

We aren't going to have a vaccine in October.  And even if we did, Trump wouldn't have any role in it.

We will have another spike in Covid, either just before or - more likely - not long after the election.  I see nothing that will prevent it. 

Trump was never a "lock", even as an incumbent.  I am pretty sure his approval rating has never been above 50%.

The pandemic was not just random stroke of bad luck any more than the racial strife is.  It was inevitable that the country was challenged by some crisis - or more - that he would fumble, being totally unsuited for the office.

[TitanTiger 20,499]

The first post-convention polling is coming out.  Three of them so far.

Emerson:  Biden 49-47 (poll conducted 8/30-8/31, 1547 likely voters)

USA Today/Suffolk:  Biden 50-43 (8/30-8/31, 1000 registered voters)

Grinnell/Selzer:  Biden 49-41 (8/26-8/31, 827 likely voters)

Generally speaking, likely voters are the better measure, but many polling firms feel that the difference doesn't become truly meaningful until closer to the election.  Either way you've got Biden +2 and +8 in the two likely voter polls so far and +7 in the registered voter one.

Will be interesting to see as more come out what it looks like.  Right now, I don't think either got much of a bump from the conventions (or whatever they got was a wash once both were finished).

[homersapien 11,386]

12 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

The only problem with him laying low is that he may have allowed Trump to define the terms of engagement.  It was 100% COVID, which Trump polls terribly on.  But by staying quiet, Biden has allowed Trump to make "law and order" a larger issue.  Sometimes you gotta keep pressing and force the trailer to come get you.

1. Covid-19 hasn't gone away.

2. The "law and order" schtick will ultimately backfire on Trump IMO.,  He is doing the exact opposite of what he should be doing to reduce violence and I think most Americans realize that. 

[SocialCircle 570]

4 minutes ago, homersapien said:

We aren't going to have a vaccine in October.  And even if we did, Trump wouldn't have any role in it.

We will have another spike in Covid, either just before or - more likely - not long after the election.  I see nothing that will prevent it. 

Trump was never a "lock", even as an incumbent.  I am pretty sure his approval rating has never been above 50%.

The pandemic was not just random stroke of bad luck any more than the racial strife is.  It was inevitable that the country was challenged by some crisis - or more - that he would fumble, being totally unsuited for the office.

I don’t think a vaccine is likely before the election, but I do think it would help Trump in the election if that were to occur. 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

9 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

The first post-convention polling is coming out.  Three of them so far.

Emerson:  Biden 49-47 (poll conducted 8/30-8/31, 1547 likely voters)

USA Today/Suffolk:  Biden 50-43 (8/30-8/31, 1000 registered voters)

Grinnell/Selzer:  Biden 49-41 (8/26-8/31, 827 likely voters)

Generally speaking, likely voters are the better measure, but many polling firms feel that the difference doesn't become truly meaningful until closer to the election.  Either way you've got Biden +2 and +8 in the two likely voter polls so far and +7 in the registered voter one.

Will be interesting to see as more come out what it looks like.  Right now, I don't think either got much of a bump from the conventions (or whatever they got was a wash once both were finished).

I've been paying attention to individual swing state polls more than anything this year.  A few came out yesterday from Morning Consult.  Biden leads where it matters and even in some states that have been traditionally red (hello Arizona). 

Now I post this with the caveat that it's one set of polling.  I usually like to see 3-5 good sources before making a more formed opinion on where things stand.

 

https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/

[homersapien 11,386]

A current example of how well Trump is addressing racial strife (and the pandemic) :

 

Opinion by

Dana Milbank

Columnist

September 1, 2020 at 7:46 p.m. EDT

President Trump took off on Air Force One on Tuesday morning on his way to Kenosha, Wis. He landed on Planet Zog.

In real life, protests (some peaceful, some violent) erupted after police shot Jacob Blake, a Black man, seven times in the back. A Trump-supporting militia member allegedly gunned down three of the protesters, killing two of them.

But in the imaginary Kenosha that Trump created Tuesday afternoon at an invitation-only “roundtable” — in a high school cafeteria serving as a government “command center” — things were quite different.

There was no pandemic in this Kenosha; at his suggestion, everybody in the roundtable took off their face masks. There was no right-wing violence. (I heard no mention of the killings by the Trump-backing extremist.) There was no such thing as police brutality (Trump quickly swept aside any such notion). And there were hardly any Black people (only two of the 23 in the room).

It quickly became clear that the pair, a pastor and his wife, were to be seen rather than heard. James Ward, who said he is the pastor to Blake’s mother, was asked by Trump to offer a prayer, then offered to discuss “the real pain that hurts Black Americans.” Trump wasn’t interested.

When Trump opened the roundtable to questions, a reporter asked the pastor whether he believed that there is systemic racism in law enforcement.

Before Ward could answer, Trump broke in to say there were only “some bad apples” among police, of which “I have the endorsement of so many, maybe everybody.”

The reporter tried again. “Could the pastor answer my question, please?”

Trump called on another questioner.

Then, shutting down the session, Trump turned to the muted pastor he had just used as a prop. “Fantastic job,” he said.

As the election gets closer and closer, Trump appears to be getting further and further from reality. Tuesday’s stagecraft in Kenosha was Trump’s most audacious attempt to rearrange reality since … well, since the night before. On Monday, he informed Fox News’s Laura Ingraham that Joe Biden is the victim of mind control by “people that you’ve never heard of, people that are in the dark shadows.” They are, he said, the same “people that are controlling the streets.” Trump further reported the existence of a plane, “almost completely loaded with thugs wearing these dark uniforms, black uniforms.” He said they “were on the plane to do big damage.”

Pressed for details, Trump said he could divulge no more. “I’ll tell you sometime, but it’s under investigation.” As NBC reported, Trump’s fantastical tale closely matched a two-month-old conspiracy theory making the rounds on Facebook.

By the time he arrived at Joint Base Andrews for his trip to Wisconsin, Trump had already developed more details about his new conspiracy theory. This time, “the entire plane filled up with the looters, the anarchists, the rioters.” And Trump said he has a firsthand account from a person on the plane. “Maybe they’ll speak to you and maybe they won’t,” he said. (They didn’t.)

Arriving in Kenosha, Trump toured a camera shop that had been damaged. There, he chose to speak about Portland, Ore. — about 2,000 miles away. Portland “has been terrible for a long time, for many decades, actually.” Portland is frequently ranked among the “most livable cities” in America.

Trump didn’t meet with the Blake family, instead moving on to the high school cafeteria, draped with blue curtains and decorated with flags.

“I feel so safe,” Trump remarked, after a tour in which he was protected by armored personnel carriers, military trucks and police in camouflage carrying automatic rifles.

He received thanks from a participant for “sending the National Guard.” (That was actually the work of Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who, like Kenosha’s mayor, urged Trump not to visit.)

Trump reported that “there was love on the street, I can tell you, of Wisconsin when we were coming in … so many African Americans.” According to the “pool” reporters traveling in the president’s motorcade, he had been greeted by friends and foes alike, including one “large group protesting the president, their middle fingers pointed at motorcade.”

The two African Americans in the roundtable did their best to bring Trump around to reality. James Ward prayed for a restoration of “empathy and compassion.” Sharon Ward noted that “it’s important to have Black people at the table” and called it “a good opportunity for us really to solve the problem.”

But Trump would not be moved. Asked about nonviolent protests and structural racism, he answered with “anarchists,” “looters,” “rioters” and “agitators.” He said Democrats like riots and want to close prisons and end immigration enforcement. “The wall will be finished very shortly,” he added.

Maybe that’s true — on Planet Zog.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/01/trump-flies-kenosha-lands-planet-zog/?hpid=hp_save-opinions-float-right-4-0_opinion-card-d-right%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

[SocialCircle 570]

15 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

This is false.  Biden hasn't slipped.  Trump has gained maybe a point or two closing the gap.  But Biden's support has not slipped.  He's steadily above 50%.  Remember, most polling shows 51-44 or something like that, meaning there's about 4-5% of those polled which didn't commit to a candidate.

Well he thinks he has slipped some. This is why he came out of the basement and made some anti-violence comments after completely ignoring it during his convention. 

[TitanTiger 20,499]

8 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

Well he thinks he has slipped some. This is why he came out of the basement and made some anti-violence comments after completely ignoring it during his convention. 

I think everyone expects the race to tighten some between now and November.  But I think what you're seeing from Biden is less of your hopeful "he's slipping in the polls" and more of "we're not going to make the same mistakes the Hillary Clinton campaign made."  They aren't taking anything for granted this time, not assuming that people can see Trump's obvious problems, not letting him get away with the constant farrago of made-up bull**** without a rebuttal.

[SocialCircle 570]

49 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

I think everyone expects the race to tighten some between now and November.  But I think what you're seeing from Biden is less of your hopeful "he's slipping in the polls" and more of "we're not going to make the same mistakes the Hillary Clinton campaign made."  They aren't taking anything for granted this time, not assuming that people can see Trump's obvious problems, not letting him get away with the constant farrago of made-up bull**** without a rebuttal.

Too late as not even mentioning the violence in Democrat controlled cities was a mistake. The problem with the polls showing the race tightening is he will be forced out of the basement more often. The more often he has to come out....the worse it will be for Biden. 

[homersapien 11,386]

I think the lack of focus on violence at the Democratic convention is being way overblown as to significance.  It's certainly no more significant that the portrayal of the pandemic by Trump (see piece below).

The DNC certainly hit on the racial disparity that most of the country empathizes with - and the Republicans ignored.  No reasonable person thinks Biden is indifferent to the problem with violence sparked by a minority of the BLM protestors - as well as bad actors in general from both sides.  And there is plenty of time left for Biden to clearly express his position on violence.  (And we won't see an adjustment by Trump regarding the pandemic.)

Meanwhile, Trump will continue to egg on more violence.  They have even admitted it works in their favor.  Most people will see and understand, this even if 40+% don't.  (Which is incredibly depressing by itself).

Here's some more polling data, links and commentary (emphasis mine):

The latest polling evidence suggests Trump’s convention flopped

Opinion by

Greg Sargent

September 2, 2020 at 10:35 a.m. EDT

As the wildly hyped imagery of urban unrest and up-is-down coronavirus propaganda at the GOP convention showed, the convention’s primary aim was to create the illusion that President Trump has decisively crushed the virus — and that the only thing left for White suburbanites to fear is the radical left’s efforts to violently push the country into civil collapse.

Three new polls suggest that neither of those notions proved particularly persuasive.

The toplines in the three polls — from Selzer & Company, Reuters/Ipsos and USA Today/Suffolk University — all show Joe Biden leading Trump nationally. The first has Biden up by 49 percent to 41 percent among likely voters. The second and third have Biden up by 47 percent to 40 percent and 50 percent to 43 percent among registered voters.

All that is consistent with current polling averages putting Biden up by just over 7 points. Trump may have gotten a slight bounce. But if Trump is down by that much at what should be a high point — and remember, explosive scenes from Wisconsin have been dominating the news — that’s a tough place to be.

But you can find more signs that the convention messaging may have been a flop in the new polling’s internals.

The convention’s message about coronavirus

The convention really pushed three messages about coronavirus: Trump’s leadership has been stupendous all throughout; he cares deeply about its victims and the bereaved; and the virus is largely behind us. That last point is crucial: Trump wants to move the focus off coronavirus and on to crime and safety.

But the new Selzer & Company poll finds that only 39 percent of voters approve of Trump’s handling of coronavirus, while 55 percent disapprove. Only 41 percent say Trump is doing enough to contain it, while 53 percent say health officials and their governors are doing the right amount.

Meanwhile, 53 percent of respondents believe them personally catching the virus is a “threat.” And majorities say returning kids of all ages to school is “unsafe.”

“The findings on coronavirus have positioned the president as not being as effective as the public would wish,” Ann Selzer, the president of Selzer & Company, told me, though she noted that her data doesn’t necessarily say anything about the convention’s efficacy.

Selzer pointed to the stark contrast in impressions of Trump on one side and governors and health officials on the other.

“For the president, there’s more of a sense that he has not done enough,” Selzer said. “There is a perception that the president specifically has not managed the job well.”

Meanwhile, the new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that 78 percent of voters are still “very” or “somewhat” concerned about the virus. Nearly 60 percent say Trump is at least partly responsible for school and business closing and for the soaring number of cases in the U.S.

All that sounds nothing like an electorate that believes Trump crushed the virus to the point where it’s behind us.

Americans still support the protests

On top of all this, the new USA Today/Suffolk poll finds that 57 percent of voters think peaceful demonstrations should continue, even though violence has followed in some cities, while only 35 percent say they should stop (though it also finds that only a minority believes police shootings of blacks represent systemic racism).

This strongly suggests a sizable majority still does not see current unrest as a sign that a frightening wave of radicalism is sweeping across the land, portending the sort of imminent collapse that Trump’s convention sought to portray.

Indeed, the Suffolk poll finds that 54 percent support ongoing boycotting of sports teams to protest the police shooting of Jacob Blake, which Trump has raged against. Only 35 percent are opposed.

No real signs of massive reactionary backlash

All this suggests the electoral mainstream is in some general sense more oriented toward the need to hear out all sides in the policing debate with respect than toward the fear-driven reactionary backlash that Trump is working to unleash.

This constructive message is the one Biden is sending. He just launched a $45 million ad campaign that features him condemning violence while pivoting to a lengthy denunciation of Trump as a leading instigator of it, along with footage of white supremacists and violent MAGA counterprotesters in pickup trucks.

That $45 million is being put into a campaign directly linking Trump to the right wing and racist extremism he’s done so much to encourage is extraordinary. But what’s also important here is that Biden is betting that the mainstream will want someone who recognizes that bringing both police and protesters to the table points the way toward civil peace, even as Trump wants civil war.

Of course, Trump is not trying to win a majority. He’s using all this messaging to torque his base into just enough of a frenzy and to frighten just enough White suburbanites to pull off another electoral college inside straight. That remains possible, and we’ll need to see quality state polls to get a full picture.

But the polling we do have so far strongly suggests that Trump has failed to persuade the mainstream that coronavirus has been crushed and that the national event that truly threatens Americans’ lives and well-being is leftist protest. In a complicated, challenging moment, public attitudes are responding with appropriate nuance. And that may be the worst news for Trump of all.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/02/latest-polling-evidence-suggests-trumps-convention-flopped/?hpid=hp_save-opinions-float-right-4-0_opinion-card-a-right%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

 

 

[TitanTiger 20,499]

7 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

Too late as not even mentioning the violence in Democrat controlled cities was a mistake. The problem with the polls showing the race tightening is he will be forced out of the basement more often. The more often he has to come out....the worse it will be for Biden. 

LOL.  You pitch the hope that Trump will come back to win with this "there's a long way to go and anything can happen" Pollyanna-ism one minute, then claim that Biden addressing the riots and violence a few days ago rather than during his convention two weeks ago as "too late" the next.  Do you even listen to yourself?

[homersapien 11,386]

3 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

Too late as not even mentioning the violence in Democrat controlled cities was a mistake. The problem with the polls showing the race tightening is he will be forced out of the basement more often. The more often he has to come out....the worse it will be for Biden. 

I know that's a popular meme with you folks, but how about explaining it?

After all, Biden is only 4 years older than Trump and is a normal human being with natural empathy.

Trump is a narcissistic, immature, psychopathic con man who reveals it daily via twitter.

What makes you think a public comparison works to Trump's favor?  Do you think a majority of Americans are so gullible to prefer him or just enough in the swing states to allow him to draw another inside straight in the electoral college (which is his plan)?

I recognize there are at least 30% of Americans who have swallowed Trump's con, but I have to believe most undecided voters will lean more to Biden in comparison.  The debates will likely be Trump's nail in the coffin.

[SocialCircle 570]

1 minute ago, homersapien said:

I know that's a popular meme with you folks, but how about explaining it?

After all, Biden is only 4 years older than Trump and is a normal human being with natural empathy.

Trump is a narcissistic, immature, psychopathic con man who reveals it daily via twitter.

What makes you think a public comparison works to Trump's favor?  Do you think a majority of Americans are so gullible to prefer him or just enough in the swing states to allow him to draw another inside straight in the electoral college (which is his plan)?

I recognize there are at least 30% of Americans who have swallowed Trump's con, but I have to believe most undecided voters will lean more to Biden in comparison.  The debates will likely be Trump's nail in the coffin.

Let’s see all of the debates then. I’m willing to take my chances. It will be interesting to see if Biden is so inclinded. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

2 minutes ago, homersapien said:

I recognize there are at least 30% of Americans who have swallowed Trump's

Mad Libs, anyone?

[TitanTiger 20,499]

4 minutes ago, SocialCircle said:

Let’s see all of the debates then. I’m willing to take my chances. It will be interesting to see if Biden is so inclinded. 

He's already indicated that he is.

Which brings me to another point - how on earth has this notion that Biden is some mindlessly rambling, addled geezer taken root amongst the Trumpettes yet they don't hear the regular incoherent word salads of nonsense coming from Trump's mouth?

[SocialCircle 570]

9 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

LOL.  You pitch the hope that Trump will come back to win with this "there's a long way to go and anything can happen" Pollyanna-ism one minute, then claim that Biden addressing the riots and violence a few days ago rather than during his convention two weeks ago as "too late" the next.  Do you even listen to yourself?

I think Trump was a lock to win until the pandemic. Then I really thought the pandemic would cost Trump this election. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over time. Too many unknown events to know and only time will tell. 

[SocialCircle 570]

Just now, TitanTiger said:

He's already indicated that he is.

Which brings me to another point - how on earth has this notion that Biden is some mindlessly rambling, addled geezer taken root amongst the Trumpettes yet they don't hear the regular incoherent word salads of nonsense coming from Trump's mouth?

Comparing the energy levels between these two men is startling. I don’t like Trump, but I can admit he has incredible energy.