Congressional reapportionment announced

[SLAG-91 1,483]

TX +2

FL, CO, MT, NC, OR +1

 

CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA, WV -1

New York needed 89 more people counted to avoid losing their one seat...wow.

Northeast continues the decades-long pattern of loss of seats to southern and western states.

Thought I had seen where Alabama was expecting to maybe lose a seat...maybe I just imagined that. 

[TexasTiger 12,865]

20 minutes ago, SLAG-91 said:

TX +2

FL, CO, MT, NC, OR +1

 

CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA, WV -1

New York needed 89 more people counted to avoid losing their one seat...wow.

Northeast continues the decades-long pattern of loss of seats to southern and western states.

Thought I had seen where Alabama was expecting to maybe lose a seat...maybe I just imagined that. 

I had heard that about AL, too.

[mcgufcm 4,096]

Think you're misreading where those losses are coming from. NY is the only "northeast" state that lost a seat.

The vast majority of the losses came from (and have come for some while from) the Rust Belt. Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, and WV have lost seats in each of the last three reapportionments. The SE and West are gaining seats, but not at the expense of the NE.

Interestingly, both parties should feel good news from the reapportionment. Dems picked up seats in places that are becoming very safe (Oregon and Colorado). Losses were spread among red and blue states in the Rust Belt (WV and OH on one side; PA/MI/IL on the other). Then, you see why Texas and NC are becoming more important and more contested. The margin for the GOP candidate in Texas has declined from 23 points in 2004 to 5.5 points in 2020. The growing population isn't just voters looking for a red-state home. It's a diverse group that is helping Dems compete there. Still, GOP gains seats in more states they traditionally win.

Edited April 27, 2021 by mcgufcm

[MDM4AU 332]

21 hours ago, TexasTiger said:

I had heard that about AL, too.

That had been the message here in AL when our census takers were so few coming down the stretch.  There was a strong push at the end. 

[bigbird 60,524]

2 hours ago, mcgufcm said:

The margin for the GOP candidate in Texas has declined from 23 points in 2004 to 5.5 points in 2020.

I believe that was due to Trump fatigue.  Run a good candidate and the margin won't be that close. It's definitely closing though.

[johnnyAU 3,630]

I thought TN was gonna pick up 1 

[TexasTiger 12,865]

37 minutes ago, bigbird said:

I believe that was due to Trump fatigue.  Run a good candidate and the margin won't be that close. It's definitely closing though.

A stronger D senate candidate could do better against the two current incumbents. 

[TexasTiger 12,865]

1 hour ago, MDM4AU said:

That had been the message here in AL when our census takers were so few coming down the stretch.  There was a strong push at the end. 

Good to “see” you. 😀

[mcgufcm 4,096]

56 minutes ago, bigbird said:

I believe that was due to Trump fatigue.  Run a good candidate and the margin won't be that close. It's definitely closing though.

I'm not convinced that's true. Couple that with Beto O'Rourke losing a statewide Senate race by 1.5%, and it looks like a strong tightening trend. That's a total guess. I'd be interested to find out the demographics for the population gains in Texas as well because that could point in the direction of a continued tightening. Again, guesswork, but I expect the trend in tighter statewide elections in Texas to continue and maybe to get even closer if Dems can maintain gains in suburban areas.

[TexasTiger 12,865]

1 hour ago, mcgufcm said:

I'm not convinced that's true. Couple that with Beto O'Rourke losing a statewide Senate race by 1.5%, and it looks like a strong tightening trend. That's a total guess. I'd be interested to find out the demographics for the population gains in Texas as well because that could point in the direction of a continued tightening. Again, guesswork, but I expect the trend in tighter statewide elections in Texas to continue and maybe to get even closer if Dems can maintain gains in suburban areas.

That’s why they are making it harder to vote— worse than GA.

[MDM4AU 332]

1 hour ago, TexasTiger said:

Good to “see” you. 😀

You too. I drop in from time to time and snoop. 😁

[bigbird 60,524]

2 hours ago, TexasTiger said:

A stronger D senate candidate could do better against the two current incumbents. 

 

2 hours ago, mcgufcm said:

I'm not convinced that's true. Couple that with Beto O'Rourke losing a statewide Senate race by 1.5%, and it looks like a strong tightening trend. That's a total guess. I'd be interested to find out the demographics for the population gains in Texas as well because that could point in the direction of a continued tightening. Again, guesswork, but I expect the trend in tighter statewide elections in Texas to continue and maybe to get even closer if Dems can maintain gains in suburban areas.

There's been a huge influx of Californians and Hispanics.  Like I said, it's definitely tightening and most likely at a very accelerated rate. That said, a lot that voted for Beto and Biden are from the moderate/centrist wings of both parties and will flip their votes based on candidates and policy more than party. JMO

[TexasTiger 12,865]

1 hour ago, bigbird said:

 

There's been a huge influx of Californians and Hispanics.  Like I said, it's definitely tightening and most likely at a very accelerated rate. That said, a lot that voted for Beto and Biden are from the moderate/centrist wings of both parties and will flip their votes based on candidates and policy more than party. JMO

Republicans greatest advantage in Texas is that their base will vote for anyone with an R by their name. No one likes Ted Cruz. Cornyn defines blah.

 

[bigbird 60,524]

10 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

Republicans greatest advantage in Texas is that their base will vote for anyone with an R by their name. No one likes Ted Cruz. Cornyn defines blah.

 

Agreed

[GoAU 1,600]

On 4/27/2021 at 6:06 PM, TexasTiger said:

That’s why they are making it harder to vote— worse than GA.

Harder - you mean as in having the practically unbearable burden of providing identification?

[TexasTiger 12,865]

3 hours ago, GoAU said:

Harder - you mean as in having the practically unbearable burden of providing identification?

No.

[GoAU 1,600]

16 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

No.

Ok - must be the 500 yards of broken glass you have to crawl through while people are shooting flaming arrows at you .   

 

would love to see exactly how it was unreasonably made harder.  

[CoffeeTiger 5,108]

20 minutes ago, GoAU said:

Ok - must be the 500 yards of broken glass you have to crawl through while people are shooting flaming arrows at you .   

 

would love to see exactly how it was unreasonably made harder.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/04/03/georgia-voting-law-explained/

It shrinks the window for voters to request mail ballots. Rather than allowing voters to request ballots six months from Election Day, the new law says voters can start requesting ballots 78 days out; counties can begin sending ballots to voters just 29 days before Election Day, rather than the previous 49 days. It also sets an earlier cutoff date for ballot application requests.

Counties and the state can send mail ballot applications only to voters who request them (as opposed to simply sending every registered voter a ballot application) and cannot fill in information ahead of time.

New voter ID requirements. Voters who cast mail ballots will have to provide one of several forms of identification. This provision — which replaces a signature match previously used to confirm voters’ identities — is one of the most controversial because critics say it is likely to disproportionately affect Black voters.Voters don’t have to provide a copy of the identification, but could for example provide a driver’s license number, social security number or other acceptable identification.

A limit on the number of ballot drop boxes during early voting. It essentially limits the number of drop boxes in each county to one per early-voting site, or one for every 100,000 voters in the county, whichever number is smaller. And the drop boxes can’t be conveniently spread over the county, for example, in places where there aren’t in-person early-voting locations; they all have to be located either in a county election office or at an early-voting precinct location. They have to be indoors, which critics say make them less accessible and could lead to crowds where voters are already congregated,

Shortened early voting in runoff elections. Instead of a minimum of three weeks of early voting in runoffs, early voting in runoffs will be held in a single Monday-Friday period.

State lawmakers get much more power over county and local elections (and Republicans have decisive majorities in both the state Senate and the state House). The law states that the General Assembly will select the chair of the state elections board, rather than the board being chaired by the Georgia secretary of state — an elected position. The chair is supposed to be nonpartisan. The state election board can investigate county election boards and has the power to suspend county election superintendents — though the law limits the state board to suspending four at a time.

You might remember Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who became the target of his own party’s ire after President Donald Trump put pressure on him over the results of the 2020 election; this provision seems like a direct reaction to that, ensuring partisan state lawmakers can control the election process more directly.

A ban on handing out food and water within 150 feet of a polling place, or within 25 feet of any voter. Republicans say this is aimed at stopping outside groups from influencing voters; Democrats say it’s supposed to make it harder for people to wait in long lines, particularly on hot or cold days. Election officials are permitted to set up water stations — but they’re not required to do so.

[TexasTiger 12,865]

32 minutes ago, GoAU said:

Ok - must be the 500 yards of broken glass you have to crawl through while people are shooting flaming arrows at you .   

 

would love to see exactly how it was unreasonably made harder.  

@CoffeeTigeraddresses that above. This legislation was not a reaction to any fraud— none was found. It was a reaction to losing. 

[GoAU 1,600]

10 hours ago, TexasTiger said:

@CoffeeTigeraddresses that above. This legislation was not a reaction to any fraud— none was found. It was a reaction to losing. 

I don’t see a single thing in those changes that are unreasonable.

[AUGoo 2,664]

10 hours ago, TexasTiger said:

@CoffeeTigeraddresses that above. This legislation was not a reaction to any fraud— none was found. It was a reaction to losing. 

Wow.

[TexasTiger 12,865]

54 minutes ago, AUGoo said:

Wow.

Delusion assaulted?